Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

[Dylan82]

I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.

 

[new breed]

But some of the offers for pick 1 will be massive , why put all your eggs in one basket plus H Reid might not be keen to be here ?

IF we somehow got pick #2 , #10 and #15 for Pick 1 there should be strong thought about the trade .

Keep an open mind .

 

[30stm3891]

T

That's a really poor outcome for us.

like a sh?t sandwich with no bread

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

But some of the offers for pick 1 will be massive

Will they though?

 

[eaglespremiers]

GWS paid pick 3, pick12 and Collingwood’s future 2nd for pick 1 last year.

I’m afraid that people have been conditioned to think we’re getting 3 top 10 picks for pick 1 and have been conditioned for an outcome that was never going to happen, and never will.

I fear for this board when the deal put forward by Phil is close to what we end up accepting.

Let's put it this way. Cadman played full forward for Vic Country last year as a key position forward.
In the last quarter of their game against Vic Metro Harley Reid was put deep forward one-on-one and almost won them the game.
Cadman was a contributor that game but he is a substantially lesser no. 1 pick than Reid projects to be.

I can't think of any sensible reason not to take Reid, he's not a sure thing any more than Scully, Jack Watts, Kruuzer or any of the other 1st pick fapfests were, but his numbers and highlights stack up.

I don't think this statement is accurate. Whilst Scully dominating during his U18 year he, much like Gaff, always projected to be a very specific type of player.
There was no versatility there. It was outside midfielder or bust.

Watts also was overrated and projected to be a third tall forward.
Pick 1 is obviously a lot to pay for somebody who plays such a role.
Of course, there is an element of retrospectivity to this assessment but I know I wasn't the only one to project him struggling to be a no. 1 key forward at AFL level.
I mean, at least Tom Boyd dominated in his role up forward in his U18 year, which is more than can be said for Watts, Cadman or even McCartin and Patton.

Looking back at the previous no. 1 picks the other two that jump out at me who were equally as highly rated as Reid were Rowell in 2019 and Swallow in 2008 (that hype was unbelievable).
Both Welsh and Horne-Francis were considered excellent options, but I don't think were considered in the same frame as those three.
Rayner and McGrath both at the time (and now) were considered the weaker no. 1 picks of the last ten years.

That's not to say he's a sure thing but if I was to look back at the pre-draft ratings of the last 15 years I think the top 4 would look like this:
1. David Swallow
2. Harley Reid
3. Tom Boyd
4. Matt Rowell

This is of course, subjective and my recollection may not be as accurate as I think. But the above four in my time of considering draft picks are the highest rated/most hyped IIRC.
Make of that what you will.

 

[new breed]

Will they though?

If not we keep pick 1

 

[TerryFilk]

I think everyone already knows that I want either Reid or McKercher. Melbourne however are very, very confident on their ability to get a deal done for pick 1.

Yeah I’m nervous we do a shitty deal with them, Gary Lyon sounded certain Reid was going to Melbourne if West Coast got pick 1, not that I take what Gary Lyon says too seriously but between that and things I’ve heard, I’m getting worried.

5, 15 and a future 1st for Reid would make me sick.

 

[Priddis Is Done]

Unless pick 1 gets us Curtin and McKercher and some shit flavoured magic beans, everyone can GAGF.

Whichever club / clubs needs to conjure that up and sell their sons and daughters, is not our problem

 

[JADED]

5, 15 and a future 1st for Reid would make me sick.

Players could be added though.
They have ways to create a godfather offer, be it via acquiring picks, or giving us Van Rooyen, Rivers and every pick under the sun.

 

[wirra44]

But some of the offers for pick 1 will be massive , why put all your eggs in one basket plus H Reid might not be keen to be here ?

IF we somehow got pick #2 , #10 and #15 for Pick 1 there should be strong thought about the trade .

Keep an open mind .

Wouldn’t be against it but I’d want to keep 19 also

 

[ThePuma #9]

All this talk of trading pick 1 with Demons for pick 5 and a few late firsts is sickening.

A few things to consider.

North compo for McKay
3 GC academy boys
2 father and sons (dogs & hawks)
Potential academy nomination for Sanders

That’s six or seven additional first round picks that will all be added before pick 14-16

Any late first round picks will essentially be second rounders. No thanks. Next years draft is looking heavily compromised too.

So let’s say there is a general consensus of the top 7 talent

Reid
Walter
McKercher
Duursma
Curtin
Watson
Sanders

I think most agree that’s where it sits.

Let’s say North get band 1 for McKay and we trade for Demons pick 5.

1. Reid (Demons)
2. Walter (GC match)
3. Curtin (North)
4. McKercher (North)
5. Duursma (Hawks)
6. GC pick they trade away
7. West Coast pick

So if we are lucky we are left with the scraps of the top tier talent even if they secure GC pick as well and end taking someone like Watson and who? Caddy?

No thanks.

Pray to hell North get band 1 compo and tell Demons to go get pick 3 or piss off.

Any two of Curtin, McKercher and Duursma and I think we have to seriously consider it otherwise take Reid and move on.

 

[bzparkes]

WCE_phil after his last couple of posts

 

[Forward Press]

But some of the offers for pick 1 will be massive , why put all your eggs in one basket plus H Reid might not be keen to be here ?

IF we somehow got pick #2 , #10 and #15 for Pick 1 there should be strong thought about the trade .

Keep an open mind .

I'd also do that kind of trade.

I don't understand people ruling it out categorically, if some kind of offer like three top 15 picks plus pick 2 rolls in we'd be negligent to not entertain it.

 

[random260]

We don't need to trade Reid.

If he leaves after 2 years we can entertain those meh nobody wins trades.

I swear the mindset for some is trade Reid for the sake of trading Reid. And be okay with what we get because we want to trade Reid.

We need to win. We need to win the trade. There is no both wins in this scenario. It's we must win.


I'm actually happy with mellbs offer because we it indicates that it's the best we can get hence Reid stays

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

I'd also do that kind of trade.

I don't understand people ruling it out categorically, if some kind of offer like three top 15 picks plus pick 2 rolls in we'd be negligent to not entertain it.

Don't think anyone is ruling anything out, it's just that ending up with Pick 2 seems so unlikely as to not bother thinking about it.

 

[InTheWings]

Would this work?

Do a deal with Gold Coast that we won't bid on Walter with pick 1 if we can trade our future 1st to them for pick 4. Throw in one of our picks in the 50s if need be. Use pick 4 to get either Curtin, McKercher or Duursma.

So we get Reid for pick 1, and either Curtin, McKercher or Duursma for our future 1st.

 

[Godfather32]

I'd also do that kind of trade.

I don't understand people ruling it out categorically, if some kind of offer like three top 15 picks plus pick 2 rolls in we'd be negligent to not entertain it.

Well at the moment no one's really got anything close to those picks to offer them, and all we know is Melbourne are likely going to offer us 5 & 15 plus whatever and expect us to roll over and take it.

 

[Forward Press]

Don't think anyone is ruling anything out, it's just that ending up with Pick 2 seems so unlikely as to not bother thinking about it.

Fair enough then.

Definitely wouldn't do say a 5/15/24 which apparently Melbourne can do but there are worse trades in history.

 

[steve hucka]

Gee whiz it's going to be a long few months

 

[Westend]

couple more months of speculation coming up

bring on the draft

 

[Front Runner]

Just curious about the obsession with Curtin, is he that good? or are we getting spooked by a Vic centric media (genuine question). When looking at our list needs (there certainly are a few) the big one for me is the midfield. Curtin projects primarily a key backman with elite skill (from reports). I have heard that this years draft has some depth in key position players but is light on elite midfielders. I don't know why we wouldn't just take the best of the midfield group and move on. If someone offers us a couple of picks that get us in the top 5 or 6 we should be taking the two best available midfielders with those picks.

 

[bzparkes]

Just curious about the obsession with Curtin, is he that good? or are we getting spooked by a Vic centric media (genuine question). When looking at our list needs (there certainly are a few) the big one for me is the midfield. Curtin projects primarily a key backman with elite skill (from reports). I have heard that this years draft has some depth in key position players but is light on elite midfielders. I don't know why we wouldn't just take the best of the midfield group and move on. If someone offers us a couple of picks that get us in the top 5 or 6 we should be taking the two best available midfielders with those picks.

To be honest, nobody never really knows what WCE are going to do until a couple of days out from the draft.

The Curtin stuff is very much Vic media driven, because they want Reid at a Melbourne club, so they keep pushing the 'take the local boy' narrative.

 

[TerryFilk]

Would this work?

Do a deal with Gold Coast that we won't bid on Walter with pick 1 if we can trade our future 1st to them for pick 4. Throw in one of our picks in the 50s if need be. Use pick 4 to get either Curtin, McKercher or Duursma.

So we get Reid for pick 1, and either Curtin, McKercher or Duursma for our future 1st.

I’d rather offer 19, Port’s 2nd and our future 2nd for pick 4, I’d include another 3rd if needed + obviously not bid on Walter

I don’t think we’d need to offer our future 1st as I believe that offer might be hard for other teams to beat.

 

[TerryFilk]

To be honest, nobody never really knows what WCE are going to do until a couple of days out from the draft.

The Curtin stuff is very much Vic media driven, because they want Reid at a Melbourne club, so they keep pushing the 'take the local boy' narrative.

100%, the Curtin is the next Matthew Pavlich articles were hilarious, they completely stopped writing about him when North had pick 1 for a week as well.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Trading away Reid for a bunch of picks reminds me of a slow kid trading his tiny $2 coin for a 3 or 4 big shiny 20c coins.

They're bigger!
They're shinier!
There are more of them!
20 is a bigger number than 2!

 

[sey666]

To be honest, nobody never really knows what WCE are going to do until a couple of days out from the draft.

The Curtin stuff is very much Vic media driven, because they want Reid at a Melbourne club, so they keep pushing the 'take the local boy' narrative.

Exactly. There was an article article about Curtin on AFL website yesterday (the day the wooden spoon was decided).