Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

Keep pick 1, or trade it?

  • Keep pick 1, Reid is too good a prospect to pass on

    Votes: 255 64.2%

  • Trade it if there is an offer we can't refuse

    Votes: 142 35.8%
  • Total voters
    397
  • Poll closed .

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I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.
 

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Keys said:
Hopefully they look at the NGA rules for next year to give us a better chance at Malakai - is he a first round chance or a bit later than that?
Click to expand...
Hard to say as quite early in regard to first round or not. But has some great attributes and talent, also had a very strong year at colts level. Wouldn't have been far off Collards year, and he's an underager. Yeah, hopefully NGA rules change slightly for us.

He is although still quite skinny and raw.
We'll get to see how he performs on big stage tomorrow morning in futures game on the G.
 
Ugh man i wish Geelong were holding pick 1 for us or Essendon. If we're happy for pick 2, 14 and 19 for Reid then i won't follow this club. Geelong would ask for picks 2,3,14,19, next years 1st, Wardlaw, Sheezel, Brayshaw to commentate our games over the girl that says the team in Orange as a starting point.

Get a grip for crying out loud.
 
Bacchus said:
No point in talking about it we’ll be trading for two picks in the teens and one in the twenties.
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I know it's a joke, but seriously next year the talent feels pretty close and not much in between top 6. Although make that 5, due to Ashcroft. So next year I'd be very open to sliding back from say 1 to 3 or 4 and adding more draft capital to really bolster the list. Next year makes way more sense to do that, you'd potentially give up O'Sullivan but still land Jagga Smith who is pretty much on par with him.

This year it's very clear, take Reid he's a match winner. The offer would have to be absolutely ridiculous to trade back.

Best result for next year would be Smilie comes out and dominates next year and vic clubs are salivating over the next Patrick Cripps. As we've banked Reid and Ginbey already he's a low need for us, so we trade back from pick 1 and still get a O'Sullivan, Smith or Draper and some other picks in teens/twenties. Next years the year, not this year.
 
Another thing I’d like to point out. This is our draft history over the past 15 years of selections between pick 20-35 which is where picks 14-19 could very well end up for us if we split pick 1 after 3 GC academy boys, two father and sons, McKay compo and a Swans academy boy.



2008
Luke Shuey
Tom Swift

2009
Gerrick Weedon
Koby Stevens

2010
Jack Darling
Scott Lycett

2011
Murray Newman
Frazer McInnes

2013
Malcom Karpany

2014
Tom Lamb

2015
Luke Partington

2017
Oscar Allen
Liam Ryan
Brayden Ainsworth

2018
Xavier O’Neill
Luke Foley
Bailey Williams

2021
Brady Hough

2022
Harry Barnett
Cody Burgiel

In 15 years we have had 20 picks in the 20-35 range. It’s too early to make a call on Burgiel, Barnett and Hough but I’ll admit Hough has shown promise. Still though for fairness we will take these three out of the equation. so that makes 17.

Out of that 17 we have had 6 that have made it.

Shuey, Darling, Lycett, Allen, Ryan and potentially Bailey Williams.

That’s 6 out of 17. For crying out loud, that’s 35 percent in 15 years.

Either our recruiters are shit or this is the reality of players picked in this bracket.

The numbers show we have roughly a 35 percent chance of identifying and developing a player in this bracket.

So remind me again those who want to trade pick 1 for 2,14 and 19 why exactly it’s a good deal for us?
 
ThePuma #9 said:
Another thing I’d like to point out. This is our draft history over the past 15 years of selections between pick 20-35 which is where picks 14-19 could very well end up for us if we split pick 1 after 3 GC academy boys, two father and sons, McKay compo and a Swans academy boy.



2008
Luke Shuey
Tom Swift

2009
Gerrick Weedon
Koby Stevens

2010
Jack Darling
Scott Lycett

2011
Murray Newman
Frazer McInnes

2013
Malcom Karpany

2014
Tom Lamb

2015
Luke Partington

2017
Oscar Allen
Liam Ryan
Brayden Ainsworth

2018
Xavier O’Neill
Luke Foley
Bailey Williams

2021
Brady Hough

2022
Harry Barnett
Cody Burgiel

In 15 years we have had 20 picks in the 20-35 range. It’s too early to make a call on Burgiel, Barnett and Hough but I’ll admit Hough has shown promise. Still though for fairness we will take these three out of the equation. so that makes 17.

Out of that 17 we have had 6 that have made it.

Shuey, Darling, Lycett, Allen, Ryan and potentially Bailey Williams.

That’s 6 out of 17. For crying out loud, that’s 35 percent in 15 years.

Either our recruiters are s**t or this is the reality of players picked in this bracket.

The numbers show we have roughly a 35 percent chance of identifying and developing a player in this bracket.

So remind me again those who want to trade pick 1 for 2,14 and 19 why exactly it’s a good deal for us?
Click to expand...
I think 35% is pretty normal. We pulled Shuey, Allen, and Darling out of that lot, and the Ryan as well. I suspect it's a half decent haul. One day I'll take the time to go through it closely to try and determine what the bench marks for average and good are, and where we sit in the pecking order.
 
Eddie_Sandbrah said:
I think 35% is pretty normal. We pulled Shuey, Allen, and Darling out of that lot, and the Ryan as well. I suspect it's a half decent haul. One day I'll take the time to go through it closely to try and determine what the bench marks for average and good are, and where we sit in the pecking order.
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That’s my point. I’m not trying to shit on our recruiters. I probably should have been more clear. What I’m trying to say is trading down from the clear number 1 pick for a couple of picks that on average only turn into a quality player 35 percent of the time does not appeal to me in the slightest.

If it was pick 2 and 6 and we could net McKercher and one of Duursma or Curtin then I’d be all for it but the further the extra picks float out the less chance we have to unearth someone who will make the trade “worth it”.
 
ThePuma #9 said:
That’s my point. I’m not trying to s**t on our recruiters. I probably should have been more clear. What I’m trying to say is trading down from the clear number 1 pick for a couple of picks that on average only turn into a quality player 35 percent of the time does not appeal to me in the slightest.

If it was pick 2 and 6 and we could net McKercher and one of Duursma or Curtin then I’d be all for it but the further the extra picks float out the less chance we have to unearth someone who will make the trade “worth it”.
Click to expand...
Yep, the talk of Harley for 2 and 15 and 19 is crazy. It's just not going to happen and anyone who says it is, is being both disingenuous and delusional. I would probably go as far as saying that it's unlikely they would be working in recruiting.
 
ThePuma #9 said:
That’s my point. I’m not trying to s**t on our recruiters. I probably should have been more clear. What I’m trying to say is trading down from the clear number 1 pick for a couple of picks that on average only turn into a quality player 35 percent of the time does not appeal to me in the slightest.

If it was pick 2 and 6 and we could net McKercher and one of Duursma or Curtin then I’d be all for it but the further the extra picks float out the less chance we have to unearth someone who will make the trade “worth it”.
Click to expand...
I agree, it's the sort of deal you do if you genuinely dont rate or want the guy someone else wants at #1, they don't know that and its the only offer that's on the table
 

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ThePuma #9 said:
Another thing I’d like to point out. This is our draft history over the past 15 years of selections between pick 20-35 which is where picks 14-19 could very well end up for us if we split pick 1 after 3 GC academy boys, two father and sons, McKay compo and a Swans academy boy.



2008
Luke Shuey
Tom Swift

2009
Gerrick Weedon
Koby Stevens

2010
Jack Darling
Scott Lycett

2011
Murray Newman
Frazer McInnes

2013
Malcom Karpany

2014
Tom Lamb

2015
Luke Partington

2017
Oscar Allen
Liam Ryan
Brayden Ainsworth

2018
Xavier O’Neill
Luke Foley
Bailey Williams

2021
Brady Hough

2022
Harry Barnett
Cody Burgiel

In 15 years we have had 20 picks in the 20-35 range. It’s too early to make a call on Burgiel, Barnett and Hough but I’ll admit Hough has shown promise. Still though for fairness we will take these three out of the equation. so that makes 17.

Out of that 17 we have had 6 that have made it.

Shuey, Darling, Lycett, Allen, Ryan and potentially Bailey Williams.

That’s 6 out of 17. For crying out loud, that’s 35 percent in 15 years.

Either our recruiters are s**t or this is the reality of players picked in this bracket.

The numbers show we have roughly a 35 percent chance of identifying and developing a player in this bracket.

So remind me again those who want to trade pick 1 for 2,14 and 19 why exactly it’s a good deal for us?
Click to expand...

Very hit or miss.

What that once again reiterates is that we really lack role players in our squad. (Role players who are actually up to AFL level).

6 guys who are absolutely B22 when fit, 11 who are off the list. Zero fringe players.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Eastcoasteagle said:
I know it's a joke, but seriously next year the talent feels pretty close and not much in between top 6. Although make that 5, due to Ashcroft. So next year I'd be very open to sliding back from say 1 to 3 or 4 and adding more draft capital to really bolster the list. Next year makes way more sense to do that, you'd potentially give up O'Sullivan but still land Jagga Smith who is pretty much on par with him.

This year it's very clear, take Reid he's a match winner. The offer would have to be absolutely ridiculous to trade back.

Best result for next year would be Smilie comes out and dominates next year and vic clubs are salivating over the next Patrick Cripps. As we've banked Reid and Ginbey already he's a low need for us, so we trade back from pick 1 and still get a O'Sullivan, Smith or Draper and some other picks in teens/twenties. Next years the year, not this year.
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Crows are very keen on Draper. They're actively looking at ways to secure him.

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Wooshaaaa said:
Crows are very keen on Draper. They're actively looking at ways to secure him.

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...
If we were looking to trade this year it would have to involve our F1, if we could get back GCS and Adelaide R1 picks this year I’d be keen provided McKercher is available. Would essentially mean we are trading O’Sullivan (2024 edition) for McKercher and O’Sullivan (2023 edition)/Murphy or Windsor/Wilson (if we were desperate to draft 3 high end mids).
 
ThePuma #9 said:
That’s my point. I’m not trying to s**t on our recruiters. I probably should have been more clear. What I’m trying to say is trading down from the clear number 1 pick for a couple of picks that on average only turn into a quality player 35 percent of the time does not appeal to me in the slightest.

If it was pick 2 and 6 and we could net McKercher and one of Duursma or Curtin then I’d be all for it but the further the extra picks float out the less chance we have to unearth someone who will make the trade “worth it”.
Click to expand...
In my mind, it has to be a top 5 and a top 10. We may get other pieces. We may have to give up 20. But there's no point trading pick 1 if we're not going to get additional high-end value out of doing so for the very reason you've mentioned.
 
Not that I’m particularly enthused by the notion of 2,14 and 19 for pick 1 it is a significant offer

By comparison-

• Last year GWS got pick 1 for 3,12 and a F2 tied to Collingwood
• 2020 Cameron was traded for 13,15 and 20 with 2021 R2 picks tied to GWS and Essendon going back to GW
• The Kelly trade in 2019 was 14,24,33 and our F1
• In 2016 GWS gave pick 3 and 16 to Brisbane for picks 2,31,51 and 60 (to get Taranto ahead of McLuggage and Brisbane got Berry with 16 - nice work

The Adelaide offer to North to get JHF was 4 and F1 picks tied to Adelaide and Melbourne for pick 1 and Norths F2 which was knocked back

There’s not a lot of comparable trades. Shows that trading pick 1, or even just a high pick is a rarity but also is giving up 3x R1 picks even if 2 of them are late in round one. The impact of the academy and F/S picks should also be factored in

The reality is that 2,14 and 19 is significant by historical standards and could be as close as one of Norths end of 2024 R1 picks away from getting a deal done

Like I said at the start I’m not that excited at the trade but what the club might agree to is less than posters here think is acceptable.

If they do trade I hope it’s as late as possible to ensure they get maximum value
 
Keys said:
Not that I’m particularly enthused by the notion of 2,14 and 19 for pick 1 it is a significant offer

By comparison-

• Last year GWS got pick 1 for 3,12 and a F2 tied to Collingwood
• 2020 Cameron was traded for 13,15 and 20 with 2021 R2 picks tied to GWS and Essendon going back to GW
• The Kelly trade in 2019 was 14,24,33 and our F1
• In 2016 GWS gave pick 3 and 16 to Brisbane for picks 2,31,51 and 60 (to get Taranto ahead of McLuggage and Brisbane got Berry with 16 - nice work

The Adelaide offer to North to get JHF was 4 and F1 picks tied to Adelaide and Melbourne for pick 1 and Norths F2 which was knocked back

There’s not a lot of comparable trades. Shows that trading pick 1, or even just a high pick is a rarity but also is giving up 3x R1 picks even if 2 of them are late in round one. The impact of the academy and F/S picks should also be factored in

The reality is that 2,14 and 19 is significant by historical standards and could be as close as one of Norths end of 2024 R1 picks away from getting a deal done

Like I said at the start I’m not that excited at the trade but what the club might agree to is less than posters here think is acceptable.

If they do trade I hope it’s as late as possible to ensure they get maximum value
Click to expand...
Its not in any way a good deal, if a club wants a potential "Generational" talent then pony up a generational trade or GTFO. The vic media's propaganda has definitely got into everyone's heads.
 
ROO DOGG said:
Its not in any way a good deal, if a club wants a potential "Generational" talent then pony up a generational trade or GTFO. The vic media's propaganda has definitely got into everyone's heads.
Click to expand...
It's a 'good' deal, it's jut nto an 'overwhelming' deal.

There's no guarantee Reid will end up the generational talent they claim, but it's the Vic media's fault for pumping him up as such.
 
Keys said:
Not that I’m particularly enthused by the notion of 2,14 and 19 for pick 1 it is a significant offer

By comparison-

• Last year GWS got pick 1 for 3,12 and a F2 tied to Collingwood
• 2020 Cameron was traded for 13,15 and 20 with 2021 R2 picks tied to GWS and Essendon going back to GW
• The Kelly trade in 2019 was 14,24,33 and our F1
• In 2016 GWS gave pick 3 and 16 to Brisbane for picks 2,31,51 and 60 (to get Taranto ahead of McLuggage and Brisbane got Berry with 16 - nice work

The Adelaide offer to North to get JHF was 4 and F1 picks tied to Adelaide and Melbourne for pick 1 and Norths F2 which was knocked back

There’s not a lot of comparable trades. Shows that trading pick 1, or even just a high pick is a rarity but also is giving up 3x R1 picks even if 2 of them are late in round one. The impact of the academy and F/S picks should also be factored in

The reality is that 2,14 and 19 is significant by historical standards and could be as close as one of Norths end of 2024 R1 picks away from getting a deal done

Like I said at the start I’m not that excited at the trade but what the club might agree to is less than posters here think is acceptable.

If they do trade I hope it’s as late as possible to ensure they get maximum value
Click to expand...
There’s a few things to consider with your observations.

Firstly if GWS wasn’t after Cadman with pick 1 then a deal wouldn’t have been done. North weren’t interested in him so it didn’t hurt them to slip back a spot and take the extra picks, especially considering it helped them secure pick 2 from us,

Secondly do you think Geelong or GWS were better off for the picks they got for Cameron or Kelly?

I’m certain both clubs would have preferred to keep the players rather than lose them.

Would any of us be happy trading Oscar Allen for either deal they received?

As for the JHF deal let’s keep in mind that wasn’t even for the best player in that draft. Daicos was the clear number 1 and then it was a coin flip for Darcy or JHF.

In regards to the comparisons you have given, none of them are that similar considering

A) Pick 1 this year allows for the drafting of the best player in the draft (unlike Crows wanting to trade for JHF.)

B) Any club who has pick 1 is taking Reid, not an alternative such as Cadman.

C) We don’t need to trade the pick to make the best of a bad situation, such as Reid not wanting to come to WA or to recoup as much as we can for a star leaving (TK Cameron)

If someone wants pick 1 so much then we should let them make a ridiculous offer. Pick 2, 14 and 19 is not a ridiculous offer. As you have pointed out they are comparable offers in regards to other deals that have taken place. None which take into account A,B or C.

We don’t need to make the best of a bad situation, we don’t need to take speculative picks as compensation for losing pick 1. What we need to do is take the kid with the highest chance of improving our team.

Pick 2, 14 and 19 can go and get stuffed and on particular any picks that fall outside of the top 10 by the time we get to use them.
 
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Watching the Futures game this morning and it struck me that although there is a number of exceptionally talented players who will be available next year, particularly in the midfield with players like Jagga Smith, Finn O’Sullivan, Sid Draper and Josh Smillie to name a few, however, there is no player who project as being anything like what Harley Reid can offer us. Not even close.
It's also worth noting that there's no player who is absolutely projecting as the best at this point, unlike Reid this time last year.
Accordingly, I think we should be very loathe to trade pick 1 even if the offer is overs.
We can get an exceptional midfielder next year, but we're not likely to get the versatility in all three quadrants of the ground that we'd get with Reid.
 
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eaglespremiers said:
Watching the Futures game this morning and it struck me that although there is a number of exceptionally talented players who will be available next year, particularly in the midfield with players like Jagga Smith, Finn O’Sullivan, Sid Draper and Josh Smillie to name a few, however, there is no player who project as being anything like what Harley Reid can offer us. Not even close.
It's also worth noting that there's no player who is absolutely projecting as the best at this point, unlike Reid this time last year.
Accordingly, we I think we should be very loathe to trade pick 1 even if the offer is overs.
We can get an exceptional midfielder next year, but we're not likely to get the versatility in all three quadrants of the ground that we'd get with Reid.
Click to expand...

Loved Jagga Smiths game, the kid has it all: Skills, smarts, awareness and poise.
He will have recruiters on high alert, classy midfielder who is dangerous forward.
 
Keys said:
Not that I’m particularly enthused by the notion of 2,14 and 19 for pick 1 it is a significant offer

By comparison-

• Last year GWS got pick 1 for 3,12 and a F2 tied to Collingwood
• 2020 Cameron was traded for 13,15 and 20 with 2021 R2 picks tied to GWS and Essendon going back to GW
• The Kelly trade in 2019 was 14,24,33 and our F1
• In 2016 GWS gave pick 3 and 16 to Brisbane for picks 2,31,51 and 60 (to get Taranto ahead of McLuggage and Brisbane got Berry with 16 - nice work

The Adelaide offer to North to get JHF was 4 and F1 picks tied to Adelaide and Melbourne for pick 1 and Norths F2 which was knocked back

There’s not a lot of comparable trades. Shows that trading pick 1, or even just a high pick is a rarity but also is giving up 3x R1 picks even if 2 of them are late in round one. The impact of the academy and F/S picks should also be factored in

The reality is that 2,14 and 19 is significant by historical standards and could be as close as one of Norths end of 2024 R1 picks away from getting a deal done

Like I said at the start I’m not that excited at the trade but what the club might agree to is less than posters here think is acceptable.

If they do trade I hope it’s as late as possible to ensure they get maximum value
Click to expand...
The club has been focused on trading fairly in the past, which gives us a good rep around the league as an easy team to trade with but this often ends up with us accepting less than we'd like in a deal.
This is not the time to be fair in a trade though, either we absolutely and completely ream another team in any trade involving pick 1 or we keep it.
There should be no "fair" option on the table that 007 and co. accept.
 
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