What would a Dutton Liberal leadership mean for the Liberals and the country?

[Xtreme]

Shock poll reveals Dutton on track for major election win​

New polling and seat-by-seat analysis has found Anthony Albanese has no chance of winning a majority, with the Coalition on track to pick up at least nine seats.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/n...f0ad7e941ca5?expand_comments=true#share-tools

It's happening

 

[Gavin Excell]

Shock
Herald Sun polling

 

[Vindicater]

Would like to see the methodology behind that poll.

 

[peetoo]

So Dutton is a big fail if he doesn’t get the keys to the lodge?

 

[Xtreme]

So Dutton is a big fail if he doesn’t get the keys to the lodge?

If he fails at the first hurdle he can go again until he does (worked for Chris Scott after all)

 

[E Shed]

Would like to see the methodology behind that poll.

Rupert said get the Nazi elected so we gotta make some shiz up here.

 

[Rotayjay]

I still think that once the election campaign begins they won't be able to hide Dutton like they do now. He will be out front and centre and he will **** it up.

I think Albo will lose his majority, but I also think he will 'kick with the wind in the final quarter' like he said before the last election, and Dutton will be exposed as an ogre who offers nothing good.

 

[Rotayjay]

And hopefully this will be the last federal election where Rupert Murdoch is still polluting the Earth by still being alive, the old campaigner.

 

[The Punter]

Shock
Herald Sun polling

It's Redbridge - Kos Samaras' firm.

 

[peetoo]

And hopefully this will be the last federal election where Rupert Murdoch is still polluting the Earth by still being alive, the old campaigner.

His evil spawn will be worse

Source evil spawns brother

 

[Gavin Excell]

It's Redbridge - Kos Samaras' firm.

What's your take on the Teals seats? Is there a view that the wave of support that saw their election has faded?

 

[The Punter]

What's your take on the Teals seats? Is there a view that the wave of support that saw their election has faded?

In Victoria, I'm more enthusiastic about Kooyong than Goldstein.

The issue for Labor is looking at Antony Green's revised penduluum, a lot of the seats that the Libs could gain are outer suburban (in Victoria) where Dutton will play better than the inner city. Hawke, McEwen, Bruce, Aston. And with Higgins abolished and the two teals seats already gone, it's almost like there is nothing more to lose for the Libs in Victoria (Casey and Menzies are the closest but are both outer-suburban and have first term MPs with sophomore surges to come). And cost of living will hit hard as an issue in those seats.

I still think the bar is high for the Coalition to win outright government, but a path is starting to emerge.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

His evil spawn will be worse

Source evil spawns brother

Just as a general observation, it's really troubling that despite Lachlan Murdoch having a Bachelor in Philosophy from Princeton, he not only agrees with his father's morally-impoverished outlook, he subscribes to it even more enthusiastically.

Something is seriously wrong with higher education.

 

[Gough]

Just as a general observation, it's really troubling that despite Lachlan Murdoch having a Bachelor in Philosophy from Princeton, he not only agrees with his father's morally-impoverished outlook, he subscribes to it even more enthusiastically.

Something is seriously wrong with higher education.

Too much Roger Scruton.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Too much Roger Scruton.

Clearly. The ol' Scrotum.

 

[Crankyhawk]

For that to happen would require a media that demands accountability for policy positions in election campaigns.

Name me a leading media organisation in Australia that does that these days? Because I can't think of one.

Elections elsewhere in the world in the past 12 months have shown us that incumbency in the uncertain economics of the post covid-era is a poisoned chalice. And the politics of division and blame, with populist solutions that are never tested on their merits, is a vote winner. And make no mistake Labor, the LNP and the Greens are all going to play to this fact of cynical realpolitik to the detriment of the long term needs of this country.

And contrary to the prevailing view in the SRP threads, the likely outcome of a hung Parliament is the very worst result for anyone who cares about a more just and equitable society. It is an all blame/no responsibility outcome that will see zero change in major economic, social and environmental policy positioning on every thing that matters.

Not entirely sure - Gillards hung parliament seemed to work well (at least it didn't seem measurably worse than the rudd one before or the abbott one after in terms of bringing legislation and blame games)

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

And contrary to the prevailing view in the SRP threads, the likely outcome of a hung Parliament is the very worst result for anyone who cares about a more just and equitable society. It is an all blame/no responsibility outcome that will see zero change in major economic, social and environmental policy positioning on every thing that matters.

Nonsense. We will finally see some real progress combating inequality.

 

[Festerz]

Nonsense. We will finally see some real progress combating inequality.

Nope- you'll see populist short term decisions substituting for real long term policy reform. Because short term populist decisions are vital in a thee year election cycle with the two majors desperate to regain power.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Nope- you'll see populist short term decisions substituting for real long term policy reform.

Why don't we look at recent history instead of just projecting our prejudices?

The last minority federal government was a notable legislative success. You can't get more long term than a functioning carbon emissions scheme. (Not the fault of the Gillard minority government that Tony Abbott PM was an idiotic disaster.)

 

[Festerz]

Why don't we look at recent history instead of just projecting our prejudices?

The last minority federal government was a notable legislative success. You can't get more long term than a functioning carbon emissions scheme. (Not the fault of the Gillard minority government that Tony Abbott PM was an idiotic disaster.)

Not convinced that it was the 'minority' aspect of the Gillard government rather than the leadership of the Gillard Government itself and its commitment to its policy agenda.

And that the failure of the Albanese government to undertake similar bold long term reform is reflective of, inter alia, the lived experience of how the media attacked the Shorten's bold policy reform agenda in the 2019 Federal election. He campaigned timidly in the 2022 election and so no surprises his government has been a competent rebuff to the Morrison years but underwhelming.

And, speaking of 'recent history' as I stated in the post you called 'nonsense' the post-pandemic political climate of 2024 is nothing like what we have have seen previously, as elections across the globe have clearly demonstrated.

But this is the Dutton thread so further discourse on this would be off topic.

 

[The Punter]

It's hard to separate the Gillard Government: Legislative Success Story (which it was) from Gillard Government: The Political Disaster (they couldn't take two steps without making a political mistake). And that political incompetence made PM Shirtfront possible.

And it is likely that any new government would have to deal with a larger crossbench. IIRC at the most the 2010-2013 crossbench was about six MPs. It's more likely to be 16 than 6 next time around. It's 18 right now. The challenge will be different in scope this time around.

 

[Saint]

Nope- you'll see populist short term decisions substituting for real long term policy reform. Because short term populist decisions are vital in a thee year election cycle with the two majors desperate to regain power.

Might be different this time with a far more splintered electorate and possibly no real prospect of majority Government. The major parties might actually try to work with the minorities rather than trying to make it all look like garbage so that voters retreat back to the duopoly. I think those days are gone.

Dutton seems entirely incapable of working with anyone, so I doubt any minor party would be willing or able to form minority Government with them.

 

[Festerz]

And it is likely that any new government would have to deal with a larger crossbench. IIRC at the most the 2010-2013 crossbench was about six MPs. It's more likely to be 16 than 6 next time around. It's 18 right now. The challenge will be different in scope this time around.

Excellent point.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Might be different this time with a far more splintered electorate and possibly no real prospect of majority Government. The major parties might actually try to work with the minorities rather than trying to make it all look like garbage so that voters retreat back to the duopoly. I think those days are gone.

Dutton seems entirely incapable of working with anyone, so I doubt any minor party would be willing or able to form minority Government with them.

And the crap media loves a goodies and baddies binary. A diffuse array of voices is much harder for them to pour shit on one side.

I myself am very excited about the idea of a greatly increased crossbench. The Lib/Lab binary is a big part of why we now find ourselves so poorly served by such gutless policy making.

 

[Festerz]

Might be different this time with a far more splintered electorate and possibly no real prospect of majority Government. The major parties might actually try to work with the minorities rather than trying to make it all look like garbage so that voters retreat back to the duopoly. I think those days are gone.

Dutton seems entirely incapable of working with anyone, so I doubt any minor party would be willing or able to form minority Government with them.

Politics makes strange bedfellows.

And I think Dutton is precisely the sort of politician and the LNP coalition precisely the platform that would form any alliance to secure political power. But more to the point, I don't think the Greens, who are likely to remain the third party after the next election, will stomach any alliance with a Dutton led LNP on anything other than minor policy matters.

As Punter correctly points out, the size and composition of the cross bench post the 2025 election is likely to be unprecedented in Australian Federal political history. The likelihood of a minority government with the tenuous multiparty agreements that will be in place to make it function makes for very interesting times.

Reckon we will see Senators (and maybe even the odd MP) ditching their party allegiances and turning 'independent' over the course of the post 2025 Parliament at a rate not seen before.