Which list would you want? Richmond, Carlton, Geelong

[Fadge]

Good point to bring this up.

In the last 64 years your team is running at an average of winning 1 Grand Final per 64 years. So you have another 32 to go before you are due.

But in that time you have reliably maintained your average of failing to win Grand Finals in which you participate once every 4-5 years. So you are definitely due another one of those.

Will keep me nicely entertained while we develop our next multi flag team, which could occur any time within the next 2 decades.

Sorry old boy, the trend line is not your friend...

Period of mediocrity part 1 - 1908 to 1918 (11 years)
Period of mediocrity part 2 - 1945 to 1966 (22 years)
Period of mediocrity part 3 - 1983 to 2016 (34 years)

Jeepers, we're staring more than four decades of Richmond not contending straight down the barrel!

Great times!

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Sorry old boy, the trend line is not your friend...

1. Period of mediocrity part 1 - 1908 to 1918 (11 years)

2. Period of mediocrity part 2 - 1945 to 1966 (22 years)

3. Period of mediocrity part 3 - 1983 to 2016 (34 years)

Jeepers, we're staring more than four decades of Richmond not contending straight down the barrel!

Great times!

You mean we have only had 3 periods of 11 or more years without a flag in our entire history? Wow, that is a new angle Fadge, thanks for cheering me up even further. So one of these periods only happens every 40 odd years on average and we just finished one 6 years ago. = 34 years until the next one. This means the trend says we win at least one flag in the next 9 years. The trend truly is my friend, comrade and brother.

I better get busy with the other things I need to do in life, it seems I haven't got so long to wait after all.

 

[Fadge]

You mean we have only had 3 periods of 11 or more years without a flag in our entire history? Wow, that is a new angle Fadge, thanks for cheering me up even further. So one of these periods only happens every 40 odd years on average and we just finished one 6 years ago. = 34 years until the next one. This means the trend says we win at least one flag in the next 9 years. The trend truly is my friend, comrade and brother.

I better get busy with the other things I need to do in life, it seems I haven't got so long to wait after all.

Yep, and St. Kilda have only had 2 periods of 11 or more years without a flag in their history.

So they win.

 

[naysayer]

I won't be shocked if something like that gets done.

Nobody wants to go to WC now. They are at the start of a 6-7 year build. You would be forcing your best player out the door, at 24 years of age, for a single draft pick in return. What's more, West Coast don't need a single, unstoppable gun. If they needed that they would take Harley Reid! No, I think they would only exchange that pick for the raft of talent that they need. Can't see it happening unless it somehow involves Freo maybe to service the Eagles with multiple picks/players in exchange for Bolton.

Watching Shai Bolton run around in a team that gets belted every week would be a crime against football.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Want a flag this year or next? Geelong.
Aim for one in 2025 onwards? Carlton if a few shrewd list management moves made and better coaching.

Trade Cripps for a top draft pick this year. Cripps and pick 8 for Harley Reid?
Or to another Victorian team for a top ten pick.
Rejuvenate the list through draft this year and next.

Base group
Curnow, McKay, Walsh, Weitering, Young, Saad, Hollands, Cerra, Kennedy, Motlop, Fisher, Durdin, Kemp, De Koning, Williams, Marchbank, Hewett, Newman, Docherty, Acres

List management
2023 first rounder - forward
Cripps trade - midfielder/wing
2024 first rounder - forward
2024 free agent - defender/midfielder

That kind of group would have to be a sniff.

I'd argue we'd be better off trading up for Watson. He's not the biggest bloke on the field but he's the biggest knob, and god knows we need a few. Team is petrified of taking the game on and he's a real Tom Papley like w***er with massive amounts of talent. Reid would be an interesting one replacing Cripps long term but chances are next to none for that happening, Watson much more possible and probably more impactful for out list.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Yep, and St. Kilda have only had 2 periods of 11 or more years without a flag in their history.

So they win.

So they have 2 such periods in 126 years. One starts every 63 years on average then. But by the time the next one is due it will be 2029. And by then it will be one period of Premiership drought commencing per 66.5 years on average. 66.5 years after their last Premiership does not fall until 2033. Sadly for you this is one year after we are due to win our next flag at the latest. So we are winning a flag before the Saints, sorry Fadge.

 

[Fadge]

So they have 2 such periods in 126 years. One starts every 63 years on average then. But by the time the next one is due it will be 2029. And by then it will be one period of Premiership drought commencing per 66.5 years on average. 66.5 years after their last Premiership does not fall until 2033. Sadly for you this is one year after we are due to win our next flag at the latest. So we are winning a flag before the Saints, sorry Fadge.

Nah, your maths is off.

Based on the reported trend, you're looking at 2065.

The good news? It will be before Carlton's next flag.

 

[Arr0w]

Nah, your maths is off.

Based on the reported trend, you're looking at 2065.

The good news? It will be before Carlton's next flag.

Based on history of course

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Nobody wants to go to WC now. They are at the start of a 6-7 year build. You would be forcing your best player out the door, at 24 years of age, for a single draft pick in return. What's more, West Coast don't need a single, unstoppable gun. If they needed that they would take Harley Reid! No, I think they would only exchange that pick for the raft of talent that they need. Can't see it happening unless it somehow involves Freo maybe to service the Eagles with multiple picks/players in exchange for Bolton.

Watching Shai Bolton run around in a team that gets belted every week would be a crime against football.

Rubbish, plenty of ex-WA boys will be happy to return to the Eagles on good deals. There is no ruling anything out.

We just have to sit tight and see how the world's best football club manoeuvres their way through the puzzle now they have decided they are going to become the sharpest traders since Kirk Kerkorian made a total mockery of capitalism.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Nah, your maths is off.

Based on the reported trend, you're looking at 2065.

The good news? It will be before Carlton's next flag.

Well as wrong as you are, given Collingwood's trend over the last 64 years, your computations still have us winning our next Grand Final over 20 years before your hapless crew win their next Grand Final. Astonishing.

 

[naysayer]

Rubbish, plenty of ex-WA boys will be happy to return to the Eagles on good deals. There is no ruling anything out.

We just have to sit tight and see how the world's best football club manoeuvres their way through the puzzle now they have decided they are going to become the sharpest traders since Kirk Kerkorian made a total mockery of capitalism.

You've still got that cocky feeling which lingers for a few years after 3 flags. Unfortunately, it wears off.

As for good deals to the Eagles, how do think their salary cap is travelling? Going home to chase opposition for the rest of your career on average money? Nobody likes their family that much.

 

[Yoda_]

De Koning, Bruhn, Henry, Knevitt, Holmes, Clark, Stengle, Dempsey and Miers is plenty to begin with. Then if you fall down the ladder at any stage, I’m sure your recruitment team will make the most of the early selections.

The recruitment team will just pay overs via free agency for ‘home grown’ guys like Darcy Parish

They’ve done it for a decade


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Shadow89]

The recruitment team will just pay overs via free agency for ‘home grown’ guys like Darcy Parish

They’ve done it for a decade


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We never pay 'overs' on market value. Jez and Danger were worth well over a MIL when they came to us, and they were both trades. In fact, the only FA's we've gotten have been Dahlhaus and I. Smith - and we were paying both around 500K.

I can't see us paying the 800K+ for Parish needed for you guys to give him up for free, given we won't trade for him given the picks we have.

Tbh, think it's most likely he stays put - given you have the sal cap, and other clubs won't pay him what he wants.

 

[beema limapep]

IMO Richmonds list who will form the core of the next potential tilt in 3-5 years is underrated and has never really been critiqued.

Balta
Gibcus
Baker
Dan Rioli
Graham
Taranto
Cumberland
MRJ
Hopper
Bolton
Ross
Sampson Ryan
Sonsie

Can all play. At least half are at the start of their careers and will improve alot. Another 5 or 6 have premiership experience.

I haven't included guys like Clarke, Miller, Ralphsmith, Young, Mansell because it's too early and I'm not entirely convinced.

There are also top 30 picks in Banks and Brown who have been unable to debut due to injury but also our stubbornness not to replace MacIntosh and Pickett.

For mine It depends on who we bring in over the next few years. Key forwards and running mids who can kick accurately will be the target.

Who's list under 25 or so is looking better? IDK, but Richmonds is a solid starting point ahead of about 12 upcoming retirements in the next 2-3 years.

 

[My Tilly]

We never pay 'overs' on market value. Jez and Danger were worth well over a MIL when they came to us, and they were both trades. In fact, the only FA's we've gotten have been Dahlhaus and I. Smith - and we were paying both around 500K.

I can't see us paying the 800K+ for Parish needed for you guys to give him up for free, given we won't trade for him given the picks we have.

Tbh, think it's most likely he stays put - given you have the sal cap, and other clubs won't pay him what he wants.

800k for an elite mid is about the going rate today. I think the club will probably step outside it's comfort zone and offer more than we are accustom to for Parish.
Other than Dangerfield, no other midfielder at the club comes close to Darcy's weekly output.

 

[Shadow89]

800k for an elite mid is about the going rate today. I think the club will probably step outside it's comfort zone and offer more than we are accustom to for Parish.
Other than Dangerfield, no other midfielder at the club comes close to Darcy's weekly output.

Mmm, reckon we just develop internally, rather than pay that much. Honestly just don't see it happening, given the gulf between the players we have brought in on big money, and Parish.

 

[Footy Smarts]

800k for an elite mid is about the going rate today. I think the club will probably step outside it's comfort zone and offer more than we are accustom to for Parish.
Other than Dangerfield, no other midfielder at the club comes close to Darcy's weekly output.

Guthrie has won 2 b&fs in the last 3 years. We finished runners up and premiers those 2 years. He might not be a stat pig but his overall game has been superior to Parish over the last 3 years.

In saying that I think paying Parish just enough to trigger band 1 makes sense.

 

[Yoda_]

We never pay 'overs' on market value. Jez and Danger were worth well over a MIL when they came to us, and they were both trades. In fact, the only FA's we've gotten have been Dahlhaus and I. Smith - and we were paying both around 500K.

I can't see us paying the 800K+ for Parish needed for you guys to give him up for free, given we won't trade for him given the picks we have.

Tbh, think it's most likely he stays put - given you have the sal cap, and other clubs won't pay him what he wants.

I was just referencing the trades you guys always seem to make to stay relevant and competing when bringing guys home

Darcy being front and centre right now

 

[Shadow89]

I was just referencing the trades you guys always seem to make to stay relevant and competing when bringing guys home

Darcy being front and centre right now

Ah ok. It's just you referenced FA originally, hence the clarification re: our lack of FA acquisitions

 

[My Tilly]

Himmelberg has already succumbed to our no buns policy in preparation as a likely addition as a FA.

Himmelberg is a good ordinary player. Bit like McStay.
If you can get him cheap, good deal.

 

[PizzaPie]

I'll take whichever list is performing best as of the time I need to make the decision if there is a clear enough gap (which there currently is).

Geelong has played finals every year for the last 7 years, with 6/7 top 4 finishes, 2 GFs, and of course, most recently winning the thing. Geelong is currently 7th (with the 4th highest %), well clear of Carlton (13th) and Richmond (15th).

None of us could reliably crystal ball how a list will improve in the years to come, and I think too much weight is given to youth and "potential". The only obvious answer right now is Geelong, it's borderline edge lord stuff to try and mount any other argument unless you have bonified AFL list development credentials and successes backing your claims.

 

[VinnieB]

IMO Richmonds list who will form the core of the next potential tilt in 3-5 years is underrated and has never really been critiqued.

Balta
Gibcus
Baker
Dan Rioli
Graham
Taranto
Cumberland
MRJ
Hopper
Bolton
Ross
Sampson Ryan
Sonsie

Can all play. At least half are at the start of their careers and will improve alot. Another 5 or 6 have premiership experience.

I haven't included guys like Clarke, Miller, Ralphsmith, Young, Mansell because it's too early and I'm not entirely convinced.

There are also top 30 picks in Banks and Brown who have been unable to debut due to injury but also our stubbornness not to replace MacIntosh and Pickett.

For mine It depends on who we bring in over the next few years. Key forwards and running mids who can kick accurately will be the target.

Who's list under 25 or so is looking better? IDK, but Richmonds is a solid starting point ahead of about 12 upcoming retirements in the next 2-3 years.

Your young talent is poor. Bottom 3. Did you use under 25 to squeeze in Taranto , Hopper? Taranto and Baker are over 25 and Hopper over 26. Dan Rioli is over 26. Bolton will be 25 this year. They will be over 30 before you even fight to play finals again.

No 1st round pick in 2023 (likely to be top 5-10) sets you back further, while others keep improving.

 

[Danw0w]

Your young talent is poor. Bottom 3. Did you use under 25 to squeeze in Taranto , Hopper? Taranto and Baker are over 25 and Hopper over 26. Dan Rioli is over 26. Bolton will be 25 this year. They will be over 30 before you even fight to play finals again.

No 1st round pick in 2023 (likely to be top 5-10) sets you back further, while others keep improving.

You don't know anything about our youth. There is a lack of elite end talent, but they are certainly not poor.

 

[VinnieB]

You don't know anything about our youth. There is a lack of elite end talent, but they are certainly not poor.

Very ordinary in comparison to other clubs. Bottom 3.

 

[Strange Cat]

Depends if Geelong's list comes with 10 games at GMHBA or not

When was the last time we had 10 games at our home stadium?