Which team out of Adelaide, North and Hawthorn has the better youth? Part 2

[Blackhawk42]

Hawks are playing well, but it is so Hawks supporters to claim Dear is better than Thilthorpe... though granted he is whilst Riley is injured.

Certainly have moved on from Ramsden quickly.

It's unfortunate that RT was injured pre-season as he looked set of a big year.

Dear look a decent player, but RT will be a gun... as not many 2m players have the mobility of RT.

Yeah, a few are getting a little excited and probably getting ahead of themselves.

Dear might just end up a better player in time, but we only have a tiny sample size to this point.

 

[matey]

You honestly want to put your reputation on the line with this argument that Dear will be a better player than Thilthorpe.

Go for it!

Gold

 

[peetoo]

Tell me you don’t watch the games without telling me you don’t watch the games. He played very low TOG%, he plays fairly high up the ground and spends a lot of time in the ruck, it’s no surprise that he doesn’t kick bags regularly. However, he did have one game without Walker where he played more forward and kicked 5.

He has fairly frequently had the most contested marks in a game, and had multiple instances of taking 5 or more.

Again, what has been Dear’s high ceiling games? Because I can list off plenty for Thilthorpe.



If you think a cupboard with Thilthorpe and Fogarty is bare then you need to lower your standards.

Mitch Lewis is a great footballer.

Dear has shown promise but has not really shown enough for you to celebrate him the way you guys are.

We are more marvelling he didn’t get drafted or bid on earlier tbh.

 

[theiaofseed]

Dear has played 6 games. I wish we would hold off on the comparisons until at least 20 games

Why? It's not like he's been compared to anyone thats achieved anything.

 

[Soggy2112]

Thilithorpe averaged 81% game time in his first year. Dear averages 65%
Thilithorpe averages a whopping 1.3 hitouts per game, so much for spending a lot of time in the ruck.

If you want to say someone doesnt know what theyre talking about you better make sure, you know what youre talking about.

I was referring to his game time last year.

Also, Dear’s average is significantly reduced by the games he’s been subbed. Thilthorpe consistently had less than 70% game time across a whole game last year.

The one were he takes more marks, more marks inside and more contested marks probably would be a start.

The difference between their mark numbers in their first years is so small it barely is worth a mention. However, Thilthorpe won a lot more footy and had a lot more score involvements and assists. His overall impact was far greater.

Again, Dear is a good player, but with any young key forward you’re looking for ceiling. Dear hasn’t had a game yet we’re he’s shown that. I’m not saying he won’t, but Thilthorpe had had heaps.

 

[theiaofseed]

I was referring to his game time last year.

Also, Dear’s average is significantly reduced by the games he’s been subbed. Thilthorpe consistently had less than 70% game time across a whole game last year.



The difference between their mark numbers in their first years is so small it barely is worth a mention. However, Thilthorpe won a lot more footy and had a lot more score involvements and assists. His overall impact was far greater.

Again, Dear is a good player, but with any young key forward you’re looking for ceiling. Dear hasn’t had a game yet we’re he’s shown that. I’m not saying he won’t, but Thilthorpe had had heaps.

Again you keep using the words heaps, list his top ten games then.

 

[krrzr]

Dear won't be better than Thilthorpe
Just like Ramsden isn't better than Thilthorpe
Or like Fergus Greene isn't better than Fogarty, Greene isn't even on an AFL list anymore

The one were he takes more marks, more marks inside and more contested marks probably would be a start.

Lol, Thilthorpe had more contested marks than anyone for Hawthorn in 2023

2023 AFL League Total Contested Marks Leaders

2023 AFL League Total Contested Marks Leaders.

www.footywire.com

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Tell me you don’t watch the games without telling me you don’t watch the games. He played very low TOG%, he plays fairly high up the ground and spends a lot of time in the ruck, it’s no surprise that he doesn’t kick bags regularly. However, he did have one game without Walker where he played more forward and kicked 5.

He has fairly frequently had the most contested marks in a game, and had multiple instances of taking 5 or more.

Again, what has been Dear’s high ceiling games? Because I can list off plenty for Thilthorpe.



If you think a cupboard with Thilthorpe and Fogarty is bare then you need to lower your standards.

Mitch Lewis is a great footballer.

Dear has shown promise but has not really shown enough for you to celebrate him the way you guys are.

Dear has played time in the ruck, and his TOG has been low with being subbed early in a handful of games.

Thilthorpe has shown more ceiling and production but it isn’t a big suggestion to say Dear is as good talent wise or could be better.

Two key forwards and mediocre depth is not entirely booming.

 

[theiaofseed]

Dear won't be better than Thilthorpe
Just like Ramsden isn't better than Thilthorpe
Or like Fergus Greene isn't better than Fogarty, Greene isn't even on an AFL list anymore



Lol, Thilthorpe had more contested marks than anyone for Hawthorn in 2023

2023 AFL League Total Contested Marks Leaders

2023 AFL League Total Contested Marks Leaders.

www.footywire.com

CHamp keep to the topic, who said the above? This is Dear vs a disappointing Pick 2.

Dear averages more contested marks than Thilithorpe at the same age. Thilithorpe despite being in his third season only managed .2 more contested marks than Dear in his rookie season. Not sure why you're bringing up unrelated stats.

 

[Soggy2112]

CHamp keep to the topic, who said the above? This is Dear vs a disappointing Pick 2.

Why are you saying he’s disappointing?

Key position players take time to consistently perform at a high level.

Walker didn’t do so until his fourth year.
Daniher in his fourth.
McKay in his fifth/sixth.
Hawkins was in his sixth.
We’re still waiting on the King brothers but you can see it coming.
Lewis was in his sixth.

I could keep going.

There are a bunch of games where Thilthorpe has demonstrated his ability, he just hasn’t shown it week in and out yet which is completely consistent with how key position players develop. As I pointed out, he’s tracking similarly to JUH and McDonald.

 

[happy_hawks]

Undoubtedly Tilthorpe has talent, bigger question is whether the crows have the culture and coaches to help him maximise it. Can debate whether TT or Dear has more talent or who has shown more in their first year, but I know which environment looks more conducive to helping players reach and, most importantly, sustain the "ceiling" Crows posters have referred to.

Only need to look at the key role Tex has played at the expense of development of others, limited TOG crows posters have mentioned for TT, Nicks coaching for the 'now' vs Hawks giving a raw key forward opportunity while managing workloads given he's yet to do a full preseason as a first year draftee.

Will be interesting to see what change, if any, occurs at the Crows at season end. For TT and others hopefully it's significant.

 

[Soggy2112]

Undoubtedly Tilthorpe has talent, bigger question is whether the crows have the culture and coaches to help him maximise it. Can debate whether TT or Dear has more talent or who has shown more in their first year, but I know which environment looks more conducive to helping players reach and, most importantly, sustain the "ceiling" Crows posters have referred to.

Only need to look at the key role Tex has played at the expense of development of others, limited TOG crows posters have mentioned for TT, Nicks coaching for the 'now' vs Hawks giving a raw key forward opportunity while managing workloads given he's yet to do a full preseason as a first year draftee.

Will be interesting to see what change, if any, occurs at the Crows at season end. For TT and others hopefully it's significant.

Preaching to the choir there.

Nicks has put Thilthorpe and Rachele in more “secondary” roles, Rachele as that high half forward, Thilthorpe working between the arcs and as second ruck.

He’s done this because he thinks the list is ready to win now and his coaching needs to be about maximising our current performance. He’s completely misread where we are at, we took some big strides forward, but our list profile is still 2-3 years off where you generally need to be to be a contender. Much of our core talent base is still 22 and under, and under 50 or 100 games experience.

I was against giving him an extension but I thought the one positive would be that it frees him up to make calls that might result in lesser performance now but be better in the long run (e.g. play Rachele on ball, pick players like Dowling, Edwards, Taylor over Murphy, Hamill, McHenry), but that hasn’t happened.

 

[matey]

Interesting article re Crows drafting over the last decade:

‘City will be burning’: How Crows’ slide exposed big list problem as ugly draft truth emerges

‘City will be burning’: How Crows’ slide exposed big list problem as ugly draft truth emerges

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[RAPPA]

I would’ve had Hawks at the bottom of the 3 teams going into the year, but they are by far the better coached and are extracting more from what they have at their disposal.

 

[HairyO]

I would’ve had Hawks at the bottom of the 3 teams going into the year, but they are by far the better coached and are extracting more from what they have at their disposal.

Nice backhander there. We have some great kids at our disposal. Mitchell is making them better. He isnt creating a team from scratch.

 

[RAPPA]

Nice backhander there. We have some great kids at our disposal. Mitchell is making them better. He isnt creating a team from scratch.

Not wrong there. At the end of the day I’d rather a star team than a team of stars. Mitchell had hawks competitive against top teams last year. This year, but for the Port choke, they’d equal points for 8th with just over half the season gone. I’d rather be in the hawks camp because they have the right coach at the helm.

 

[Purple7x08_24]

I'm looking at this holistically especially in terms of growth over the next 4-5 years.

I think Adelaide is by far in the worst position.

Hawks have nailed recruiting and need to keep building experience in the young guys but keep refining their list with trades.

North aren't as far away as everyone seems to think. Get a couple more high picks, some depth KPP, and land some experienced players and they're right in the mix to start winning 7-8 games which would be a massive improvement. I really hope they nail the next draft and trade period, and keep LDU and #44 (sorry)

Adelaide could be losing some senior players next season, and unless they trade well, their forward line is going to need to be more dynamic given the lack of KF with Walker potentially gone. I can really only think of Rachele, Michaelanney, Soligo, Jones (Maybe) and Foggarty (maybe), Rankine. At least Adelaide have a core group of players to work around. I'm not sure what's happened to Thilthorpe, and also Milera.

 

[Soggy2112]

Adelaide could be losing some senior players next season, and unless they trade well, their forward line is going to need to be more dynamic given the lack of KF with Walker potentially gone. I can really only think of Rachele, Michaelanney, Soligo, Jones (Maybe) and Foggarty (maybe), Rankine. At least Adelaide have a core group of players to work around. I'm not sure what's happened to Thilthorpe, and also Milera.

Quick google search will tell you. Tore his meniscus in pre season, was going fine before then.

Our core talent group is fine.

Defence:
Michalanney, Hinge, Worrell, Nankervis, Murray, Milera, Keane, Butts

Midfield:
Dawson, Soligo, Rankine

Forwards:
Thilthorpe, Rachele, Pedlar, Fogarty

Other players who have potential but I’m not confident on yet:
Berry, Curtin, Cook, Edwards, Dowling

In terms of drafting, we’ll have a high pick this year, plus Tyler Welsh as a F/S (unless we get unlucky and he falls before our first pick. Then another couple of years before the bulk of that talent reaches its prime.

Some of our drafting has been poor and our football department is in bad shape, however, the list is in not that bad shape.

 

[Purple7x08_24]

Quick google search will tell you. Tore his meniscus in pre season, was going fine before then.

Our core talent group is fine.

Defence:
Michalanney, Hinge, Worrell, Nankervis, Murray, Milera, Keane, Butts

Midfield:
Dawson, Soligo, Rankine

Forwards:
Thilthorpe, Rachele, Pedlar, Fogarty

Other players who have potential but I’m not confident on yet:
Berry, Curtin, Cook, Edwards, Dowling

In terms of drafting, we’ll have a high pick this year, plus Tyler Welsh as a F/S (unless we get unlucky and he falls before our first pick. Then another couple of years before the bulk of that talent reaches its prime.

Some of our drafting has been poor and our football department is in bad shape, however, the list is in not that bad shape.

Compared to other teams I'm not convinced that list is great. All clubs have players that 'could' be good but do they end up being great?
Curtin is a high pick and probably needs time. I forgot about him. I haven't seen enough on those other players to convince me.

Wasn't Murray the one who shit himself and dropped a sitter?

 

[Soggy2112]

Wasn't Murray the one who shit himself and dropped a sitter?

What are you referring to?

 

[Sphynx]

Dear was ultra impressive in the VFL and early sample size.

A little early to proclaiming elite young status though imo.

Definitely jagged one for good value though.

 

[Soggy2112]

Compared to other teams I'm not convinced that list is great. All clubs have players that 'could' be good but do they end up being great?
Curtin is a high pick and probably needs time. I forgot about him. I haven't seen enough on those other players to convince me.

Which players haven’t convinced you?

 

[Sphynx]

I'm looking at this holistically especially in terms of growth over the next 4-5 years.

I think Adelaide is by far in the worst position.

Hawks have nailed recruiting and need to keep building experience in the young guys but keep refining their list with trades.

North aren't as far away as everyone seems to think. Get a couple more high picks, some depth KPP, and land some experienced players and they're right in the mix to start winning 7-8 games which would be a massive improvement. I really hope they nail the next draft and trade period, and keep LDU and #44 (sorry)

Adelaide could be losing some senior players next season, and unless they trade well, their forward line is going to need to be more dynamic given the lack of KF with Walker potentially gone. I can really only think of Rachele, Michaelanney, Soligo, Jones (Maybe) and Foggarty (maybe), Rankine. At least Adelaide have a core group of players to work around. I'm not sure what's happened to Thilthorpe, and also Milera.

I’ve given up predicting when the tide will turn long turn.

Clinging to micro moments week to week to maintain sanity.

I don’t think anyone can predict anything with certainty anymore and jaded from trying.

At least one of the OG goats of this thread in Charlie Comben is finally making us all proud like loving parents..

 

[Sizzlesilk]

Compared to other teams I'm not convinced that list is great. All clubs have players that 'could' be good but do they end up being great?
Curtin is a high pick and probably needs time. I forgot about him. I haven't seen enough on those other players to convince me.

Wasn't Murray the one who shit himself and dropped a sitter?

Don’t even start questioning that the majority of the players listed that have been below average this year aren’t A graders in the making.

What crows supporters struggle with is that everyone has a list of “core” players that are the equal of and in 17 other clubs case better than what they bang on about. The list is in a dreadful state but hysterically hyped in SA.

They have Dawson, Rankine as elite. Then a couple that may get to B+.

Not hard to forget about Curtain.
Being left to rot in one of the most uncompetitive SANFL sides ever seen.
Sometimes at Fullback.
I think Adelaide have also forgotten he exists he’s so blatantly ignored.

Wasn’t Murray. He’s the one that’s been out for 12 months.. wasn’t selected for the past couple of weeks in the AFL side… also playing in the B’s but is still an A grader who’s as good a defender as the AFL has ever seen.

Possibly either Rachele or Murphy you’re referring to that ducked.

 

[Purple7x08_24]

Don’t even start questioning that the majority of the players listed that have been below average this year aren’t A graders in the making.

What crows supporters struggle with is that everyone has a list of “core” players that are the equal of and in 17 other clubs case better than what they bang on about. The list is in a dreadful state but hysterically hyped in SA.

They have Dawson, Rankine as elite. Then a couple that may get to B+.

Not hard to forget about Curtain.
Being left to rot in one of the most uncompetitive SANFL sides ever seen.
Sometimes at Fullback.
I think Adelaide have also forgotten he exists he’s so blatantly ignored.

Wasn’t Murray. He’s the one that’s been out for 12 months.. wasn’t selected for the past couple of weeks in the AFL side… also playing in the B’s but is still an A grader who’s as good a defender as the AFL has ever seen.

Possibly either Rachele or Murphy you’re referring to that ducked.

Wasnt rachele because he was the player next to him. I thought it was #28, maybe 29 i dunno