Which team out of Adelaide, North and Hawthorn has the better youth? Part 2

[Dewyyyyy]

With the exception of Lazzaro and Stephens, I won't be disappointed if those guys are getting games this time next year. I do rate Ford, and Archer, Phillips and Taylor are all capable of contributing to a successful team. Teakle, Dawson and Pink - they are stopgaps, one of them might make it as a role player. I'd have my money on Dawson. (Also, most of the guys you mentioned are not really youth.)

On the other hand, I will be disappointed if our four oldest players from Saturday - Tucker, McDonald, Corr and Shiels - are still getting a game next year. I think that was the perplexing thing about your initial assessment - the idea that the experienced guys are driving performance. We're the opposite of a good team - our young guys deliver more consistent performances, and the team benefits when one or more of the older guys has a good one.

Phillips should be used as a proper mid, he isn’t a tagger and won’t make a career out of it. Has weapons for the inside and would be awesome alongside LDU, Wardlaw and Sheezel + Powell in rotation. (McKercher eventually too).

Ford is a personal opinion but I won’t bag you for rating him. Teakle is more of a stop gap probably, Archer I like a lot but needs to develop offensively. Dont rate Taylor.

The assessment wasn’t that experience drove it. It was the middle aged prime movers and the top end youth with the odd experienced player chipping in (Corr and McDonald mainly). Which coincides with good performance of the team. With the concern being youth depth and spread, with experience consistency lacking.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Player aged 27+

James Sicily 29 - arguably hawks best player this year

Karl Amon 28 - very good player, easily best 23 at north or crows

Jarmen Impey 29 - like Amon has played every game, and performed strongly. Easily best 22 at north or crows

Sam Frost 30 - defensively i’d argue he’s played as well as Ben McKay has this year. Would replace all norths KPD that have played this year other than Comben. Certainly a better player than Corr.

Mabior Chol 27 - great recruit, top 3 goal kicker.

Hardwick 27 - very good player, one of the first picked defenders across all 3 lists. And can play forward.

Gunston/breust - Gunston 4th leading goal kicker. Breust has won you a game or two.

Compared to North

McDonald - most north supporters want him dropped and to play out his career in the vfl. If Goater hadn’t done his Achilles and with archer coming on, this should be the case next year

Corr - not factoring in Logue who hasn’t played. I think he’s our 3rd best KPD, with comben and Dawson infront. Again, most north supporters have our key backs as Logue, comben, Dawson in 2025.

Shiels - not best 22 but playing for educational purposes

Summary

Hawthorn don’t rely on older players. Infact they don’t really rely on any 1 player to be competitive/win.

But in 2024 older players have had a very big, positive impact on results/performance. This is not the case at north.

Frost is a consistent Corr, just doing a job whereas Corr just has too many brainfades but aren’t too far apart talent wise.

Sicily star, Amon and Hardwick genuine guns. Impey does a role and does it brilliantly, Chol the same. Gunston has been kicking goals and good with the ball, isn’t doing much without it but is good depth to have (rotating with Dear for third tall) and will play more seeing as finals are a chance. These guys guide the youth in the right direction. + Breust is solid but doesn’t do much and is sub, good or decent quarter a week isn’t worth noting.

Tucker missed from your list, who has done a solid job. McDonald is your captain, inconsistent but his good performances link with your team playing well, Corrs last month besides the weekend been good, he’s inconsistent but again solid. Shiels shouldn’t be on a list.

The comparison is clearly Hawthorns experience guides the youth whereas Norths doesn’t do it enough or consistently. All of Norths experience is 30+ whereas Hawthorns are more 27-28, meaning they’ll be there when contending.

The drive still comes from the youth for Hawthorn as mentioned with Day, Newcombe, Weddle, MacDonald, Ginnivan, Mackenzie, Watson, Moore, Dear, D’Ambrosio etc.

North rely on Sheezel, Wardlaw, McKercher, Comben as their key youth pieces but not enough spread or depth of youth which also coincides with not enough 27-30 and too much 30+

The summary is as you say, all 3 teams driven by youth but Hawthorn have the better experience, but they also have had better performance from their youth, especially a spread of 10 or so rather than a handful like North.

Norths best games have come from when their experience stands up, which is why it was mentioned, this isn’t saying their youth isn’t doing anything, as their main 4-5 players are youth. It’s again spread, depth and consistency + effort at times.

 

[the big lebowski]

Frost is a consistent Corr, just doing a job whereas Corr just has too many brainfades but aren’t too far apart talent wise.

Sicily star, Amon and Hardwick genuine guns. Impey does a role and does it brilliantly, Chol the same. Gunston has been kicking goals and good with the ball, isn’t doing much without it but is good depth to have (rotating with Dear for third tall) and will play more seeing as finals are a chance. These guys guide the youth in the right direction. + Breust is solid but doesn’t do much and is sub, good or decent quarter a week isn’t worth noting.

Tucker missed from your list, who has done a solid job. McDonald is your captain, inconsistent but his good performances link with your team playing well, Corrs last month besides the weekend been good, he’s inconsistent but again solid. Shiels shouldn’t be on a list.

The comparison is clearly Hawthorns experience guides the youth whereas Norths doesn’t do it enough or consistently. All of Norths experience is 30+ whereas Hawthorns are more 27-28, meaning they’ll be there when contending.

The drive still comes from the youth for Hawthorn as mentioned with Day, Newcombe, Weddle, MacDonald, Ginnivan, Mackenzie, Watson, Moore, Dear, D’Ambrosio etc.

North rely on Sheezel, Wardlaw, McKercher, Comben as their key youth pieces but not enough spread or depth of youth which also coincides with not enough 27-30 and too much 30+

The summary is as you say, all 3 teams driven by youth but Hawthorn have the better experience, but they also have had better performance from their youth, especially a spread of 10 or so rather than a handful like North.

Norths best games have come from when their experience stands up, which is why it was mentioned, this isn’t saying their youth isn’t doing anything, as their main 4-5 players are youth. It’s again spread, depth and consistency + effort at times.

I feel like you’re reading things, but not taking them in

I named 8 hawks players aged 27 plus that are contributing much for the hawks, and 3 players for north (4 with Tucker) contributing little.

That’s a massive massive difference

All 4 will need to be replaced over the next year. None of the hawks would be facing losing their spot.

Tucker - ????
Corr - Logue
McDonald - Goater*
Shiels - Kerch

It’s a bit much to say Mckercher drives our strong performances when he hasn’t really played in any.

Our better play of late is because clarko realised he was trying to fit a square peg in a round hole with game style.

Guys like Xerri, Larkey, Zuhaar and LDU drive our team than wardlaw, sheezel, Powell etc. look at the coaches votes.

I mean you list Moore as a driver of your youth, he’s the same age as LDU.

Larkey would be your leading goal kicker, Zuhaar 1 off Moore, playing a game less. All this in a team that averages 44 inside 50’s vs the hawks at 52.

You’ve mentioned Watson driving your performance. He’s kicked 6 goals. You haven’t mentioned Paul Curtis who has kicked 21.

Anyways, none of it matters. The hawks are clearly the better of the 3 teams at the moment and have a great blend of experience and youth and a proven record of strong post season talent acquisition.

I’m sure you’re very happy with them as you should be.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I feel like you’re reading things, but not taking them in

I named 8 hawks players aged 27 plus that are contributing much for the hawks, and 3 players for north (4 with Tucker) contributing little.

That’s a massive massive difference

All 4 will need to be replaced over the next year. None of the hawks would be facing losing their spot.

Tucker - ????
Corr - Logue
McDonald - Goater*
Shiels - Kerch

It’s a bit much to say Mckercher drives our strong performances when he hasn’t really played in any.

Our better play of late is because clarko realised he was trying to fit a square peg in a round hole with game style.

Guys like Xerri, Larkey, Zuhaar and LDU drive our team than wardlaw, sheezel, Powell etc. look at the coaches votes.

I mean you list Moore as a driver of your youth, he’s the same age as LDU.

Larkey would be your leading goal kicker, Zuhaar 1 off Moore, playing a game less. All this in a team that averages 44 inside 50’s vs the hawks at 52.

You’ve mentioned Watson driving your performance. He’s kicked 6 goals. You haven’t mentioned Paul Curtis who has kicked 21.

Anyways, none of it matters. The hawks are clearly the better of the 3 teams at the moment and have a great blend of experience and youth and a proven record of strong post season talent acquisition.

I’m sure you’re very happy with them as you should be.

Moore is 24, LDU is 25. He was under the 25 limit put by others. (24 and under).

McKercher is apart of the strong core of youth.

I took in that Hawthorn have more performing experience which helps performance, Norths best performances come off the back off experience playing well to coincide with youth and prime movers.

Gunston and Breust go out of the list you named and replaced very easily, the rest aren’t old enough to be replaced unlike the 3 30+ for North.

Hawthorns spread of goal kickers is much higher and Larkey is a gun. Lewis would be leading ours if he actually was able to play.

Watson isn’t just goals and I think you know that, he’s averaging like 3 shots on goal a game inc a sub game. Pressure and xfactor been great.

The point made was that North will need to continue to draft to spread the load of youth, and continue to bleed them whilst looking at some capable experience, the handful of a core is really really good and there’s lots to like.

 

[the big lebowski]

Moore is 24, LDU is 25. He was under the 25 limit put by others. (24 and under).

McKercher is apart of the strong core of youth.

I took in that Hawthorn have more performing experience which helps performance, Norths best performances come off the back off experience playing well to coincide with youth and prime movers.

Gunston and Breust go out of the list you named and replaced very easily, the rest aren’t old enough to be replaced unlike the 3 30+ for North.

Hawthorns spread of goal kickers is much higher and Larkey is a gun. Lewis would be leading ours if he actually was able to play.

Watson isn’t just goals and I think you know that, he’s averaging like 3 shots on goal a game inc a sub game. Pressure and xfactor been great.

The point made was that North will need to continue to draft to spread the load of youth, and continue to bleed them whilst looking at some capable experience, the handful of a core is really really good and there’s lots to like.

Ldu turned 25 last week, Moore turns 25 in August.

Speaking of the spread of youth, aside from 21 goal Curtis, you’re sleeping on Eddie Ford. Sub 5 games this year Inc a first qrt injury against you guys, and he stacks up very well against MacDonald or McKenzie.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Ldu turned 25 last week, Moore turns 25 in August.

Speaking of the spread of youth, aside from 21 goal Curtis, you’re sleeping on Eddie Ford. Sub 5 games this year Inc a first qrt injury against you guys, and he stacks up very week against MacDonald or McKenzie.

Just looked up ages on google not DOB, apologies.

I don’t rate Ford personally but I do like Curtis

 

[TheFourPillars]

I will be honest. I think most if not all Hawthorn supporters shouldn't be worried about this thread. In the end it's about the team and team performance. Who cares about the best youth. A young player can have all the promise in the world and whatever reason they never live up to potential. Carry on guys

 

[Sphynx]

Just looked up ages on google not DOB, apologies.

I don’t rate Ford personally but I do like Curtis

Im sure you rate MacDonald though.

 

[Coalface]

25-29 (prime age)

Hawthorn - Meek, Sicily, Worpel, Amon, Nash, Impey, Jiath, Scrimshaw, Hardwick, Chol, Morrison - 11

Adelaide - Hinge, Dawson, Keays, Murphy, Himmelberg, O’Brien - 6

North - LDU, Xerri, Tucker, Fisher, Zurhaar, Simpkin, Dawson, Larkey, Pink, McDonald - 10

30+
Hawthorn - Gunston - 1
Adelaide - Laird, Walker - 2
North - Shiels, Corr - 2

Top level youth to come in/just outside (24 and under)
Adelaide - Thilthorpe, Curtin
North - Wardlaw, McKercher, Duursma
Hawthorn - Ward, McCabe?

24 and under players (in the team from R16)
Hawthorn - Newcombe, Day, Watson, Weddle, Ginnivan, D’Ambrosio, Dear, MacDonald, Moore - 9

North - Sheezel, Powell, Scott, Comben, Ford, Curtis, Archer, Phillips, Taylor, Teakle, Stephens - 11

Adelaide - Rankine, Rachele, Berry, Sholl, Dowling, Soligo, Nankervis, Fogarty, Hamill, Keane, Michalanney, Murray, Cook, Taylor - 14

Average age & experience for the weekend (R16)
Hawthorn - 24.9 (89.7)
Adelaide - 24.5 (74.9)
North - 25.0 (82.2)

Top 10 for all 3 sides (R16)
Hawthorn - Newcombe, Moore, Sicily, Meek, Worpel, Day, Ginnivan, MacDonald, Jiath, Nash - (5 24/u - 5 25-29)

Adelaide - Rankine, Hinge, Rachele, Dawson, Fogarty, Keays, Berry, Laird, Walker, O’Brien - (4 24/u - 4 25-29 - 2 30+)

North - Sheezel, Zurhaar, Xerri, Tucker, Fisher, Comben, Curtis, Ford, Simpkin, Corr - (4 24/u - 5 25-29 - 1 30+)

From all of these metrics.

Adelaide are blooding youth, but the performers are still led by the experience, quality youth pieces and prime age movers, the concern is depth and high end talent with only a few standouts performance wise.

North similar with prime age movers and experience leading the way, quality youth performing, spread and depth a concern. Continue to bleed youth and smash the draft, trying to get handy experience to guide the youth and have them drive games & wins.

Hawthorn are being guided by experience (Sicily) and other role playing pieces. The drive and performance is coming from the youth (24/u) aswell as the prime age movers (25-26) especially.
Focus point is continuous depth building as the other sides to become a contender (every contender has depth), and continuing to bleed youth and pick best available talent, free agency/trades also key, being further ahead development wise to the other two sides.

The comparison seems pointless with Hawthorn further ahead in their development, North and Adelaide have talent to look forward to and a clear approach for coming seasons.

Adelaide - continue to bleed youth & draft top end talent
North - bleed youth & find experience 26+
Hawthorn - keep drafting top end talent to build whilst maintaining high performance (building depth)

big difference in blooding youth and bleeding youth...

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

Im sure you rate MacDonald though.

Bewilderingly, he certainly seems to rate the Luke variety!

 

[hawkman]

Bewilderingly, he certainly seems to rate the Luke variety!

Weirdly Luke McDonald has the same 1v1 lost contest percentage as Weitering. Only lost 1 from 19, Weitering is 2 from 38. I know there are more issues with the ball but defensively he seems to be doing ok

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

Weirdly Luke McDonald has the same 1v1 lost contest percentage as Weitering. Only lost 1 from 19, Weitering is 2 from 38. I know there are more issues with the ball but defensively he seems to be doing ok

If only he would limit himself to halving contests. As one supporter put it:

If he stays in his lane and doesn't screw up a winnable game, I'll take it.

Being nutmegged by a loose ball, and then swatted away like a fly by JUH to goal sums up Luke's late career trajectory in one play.

 

[the big lebowski]

Weirdly Luke McDonald has the same 1v1 lost contest percentage as Weitering. Only lost 1 from 19, Weitering is 2 from 38. I know there are more issues with the ball but defensively he seems to be doing ok

Plus he’s not getting the guns anymore.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Has anyone been able to define what constitutes a "youth" in this thread yet?

 

[hawkman]

Has anyone been able to define what constitutes a "youth" in this thread yet?

Ben McKay's age and under

 

[Sphynx]

Has anyone been able to define what constitutes a "youth" in this thread yet?

Will Day, Jai Newcombe and Dylan Moore and under.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Will Day, Jai Newcombe and Dylan Moore and under.

So not Tex Walker then?

 

[Judd2Sewell]

"Youth" team, with a youth being someone who turned 23 this season or younger:

Weddle - Full Back - Michalanney
Sheezel - Comben - D'Ambrosio

Ruckman - Day - Newcombe
Soligo - Wardlaw - McKercher

MacDonald - Dear - Powell
Ginnivan - Tilthorpe - Rachele

Bench from:
Mackenzie
Mitchell
Ford
Curtis
Watson
Nankervis
Duursma
Curtin
Cook
Berry
Ward

Only Blanck and N. Murray just miss out by a few months.

Edit: forgot Weddle

 

[BIGHAWK23]

"Youth" team, with a youth being someone who turned 23 this season or younger:

Mitchell - Full Back - Michalanney
Sheezel - Comben - D'Ambrosio

Ruckman - Day - Newcombe
Soligo - Wardlaw - McKercher

MacDonald - Dear - Powell
Ginnivan - Tilthorpe - Rachele

Bench from:
Mackenzie
Ford
Curtis
Watson
Nankervis
Duursma
Curtin
Cook
Berry
Ward

Only Blanck and N. Murray just miss out by a few months.

Probably picking Ramsden as a ruck

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Does Weddle play golf?

 

[Disco Dew]

Does Weddle play golf?

He sure does!

 

[the big lebowski]

"Youth" team, with a youth being someone who turned 23 this season or younger:

Weddle - Full Back - Michalanney
Sheezel - Comben - D'Ambrosio

Ruckman - Day - Newcombe
Soligo - Wardlaw - McKercher

MacDonald - Dear - Powell
Ginnivan - Tilthorpe - Rachele

Bench from:
Mackenzie
Mitchell
Ford
Curtis
Watson
Nankervis
Duursma
Curtin
Cook
Berry
Ward

Only Blanck and N. Murray just miss out by a few months.

Edit: forgot Weddle

PC has kicked more goals than every forward on that list.

Probably gets a game

Id also swap Powell with Soligo

Or put Sheezel on a wing. He’s no longer a HB.

Other than that it looks pretty good

 

[Sphynx]

PC has kicked more goals than every forward on that list.

Probably gets a game

Id also swap Powell with Soligo

Or put Sheezel on a wing. He’s no longer a HB.

Other than that it looks pretty good

In reality there isn't a lot between all of the young forwards, it's really down to personal preference.

You could throw a blanket over all of them. The only precursor being that MacKenzie spends alot more time in the midfield than the others, with Rachele next highest.

Ford and Curtis are the best goal kickers of the group.

Watson will likely end up the highest, 4.5 shots per 100 minutes is a big number for a first year player if he can sort out accuracy.

Macdonald and Ginnavan more mobile players with higher possessions, someone like Ford a bigger aerial threat.

All of their pressure and tackle numbers, score involvement numbers, goal assist numbers, contested possession ratios are all very similar.

They are all pretty good and it's a bit a coincidence are all being compared in one group, as the three clubs have probably some of the best groups of medium forwards in the AFL for that age group. If you listed the best group of u22/21 medium forwards, the below list would make up the bulk of it.

Eddie Ford is close to a 15 disposal x 35 goal a year medium if he is given the game time and was able to play a full season based on those averages.

Jack Ginnivan and Rachele not far off the mark either.

Rankine and Toby Green were the only two in the comp in 2023 to hit that benchmark and Greene is obviously a veteran.

In 2022 it was Shai Bolton, Isaac Heeney and Zac Bailey only. 3 of the more valuable players in the comp.

That's the sort of trajectory some of the below are on.


Per 100 Minutes (80% TOG) Stats:

Player

Team

Age

Age_Decimal

Matches

Kicks

Handballs

Disposals

Inside50s

ContestedPossessions

GroundBallGets

Marks

ContestedMarks

MarksInside50

Tackles

TacklesInside50

Goals_Avg

Behinds

ShotsAtGoal

GoalAssists

ScoreInvolvements

OnePercenters

PressureActs

Cam Mackenzie

Hawthorn

20​

20.94​

15​

10.1​

7.5​

17.6​

3.3​

6.2​

5.2​

2.8​

0.0​

0.5​

2.8​

0.2​

0.6​

0.4​

1.2​

0.5​

4.1​

0.8​

16.6​

Connor Macdonald

Hawthorn

21​

21.96​

15​

10.0​

6.7​

16.7​

2.8​

5.4​

4.7​

5.1​

0.1​

0.8​

2.3​

1.0​

1.0​

0.9​

2.3​

0.5​

5.7​

0.3​

13.5​

Eddie Ford

North Melbourne

22​

22.52​

12​

8.0​

6.4​

14.5​

1.2​

5.8​

4.6​

5.3​

0.8​

1.8​

2.5​

1.2​

1.5​

0.6​

2.4​

0.5​

4.7​

1.0​

12.3​

Jack Ginnivan

Hawthorn

22​

22.06​

15​

10.9​

5.5​

16.4​

3.3​

5.0​

3.9​

4.4​

0.0​

1.3​

2.6​

1.0​

1.2​

1.1​

3.1​

0.5​

5.5​

0.8​

15.8​

Josh Rachele

Adelaide

21​

21.72​

15​

9.9​

5.4​

15.3​

3.2​

5.1​

4.0​

3.9​

0.3​

1.0​

2.1​

1.0​

1.3​

0.9​

2.6​

0.8​

5.6​

1.1​

15.0​

Nick Watson

Hawthorn

19​

19.84​

8​

7.1​

5.6​

12.7​

2.4​

5.9​

4.8​

3.9​

0.2​

1.7​

2.6​

1.4​

0.9​

2.6​

4.2​

0.6​

6.0​

1.2​

13.3​

Paul Curtis

North Melbourne

21​

21.82​

15​

7.3​

4.4​

11.7​

1.9​

5.7​

4.0​

3.6​

0.6​

1.2​

2.7​

1.3​

1.5​

0.9​

2.8​

0.6​

5.2​

0.8​

14.5​

​

 

[the big lebowski]

In reality there isn't a lot between all of the young forwards, it's really down to personal preference.

You could throw a blanket over all of them. The only precursor being that MacKenzie spends alot more time in the midfield than the others, with Rachele next highest.

Ford and Curtis are the best goal kickers of the group.

Watson will likely end up the highest, 4.5 shots per 100 minutes is a big number for a first year player if he can sort out accuracy.

Macdonald and Ginnavan more mobile players with higher possessions, someone like Ford a bigger aerial threat.

All of their pressure and tackle numbers, score involvement numbers, goal assist numbers, contested possession ratios are all very similar.

Per 100 Minutes (80% TOG) Stats:

Player

Team

Age

Age_Decimal

Matches

Kicks

Handballs

Disposals

Inside50s

ContestedPossessions

GroundBallGets

Marks

ContestedMarks

MarksInside50

Tackles

TacklesInside50

Goals_Avg

Behinds

ShotsAtGoal

GoalAssists

ScoreInvolvements

OnePercenters

PressureActs

Cam Mackenzie

Hawthorn

20​

20.94​

15​

10.1​

7.5​

17.6​

3.3​

6.2​

5.2​

2.8​

0.0​

0.5​

2.8​

0.2​

0.6​

0.4​

1.2​

0.5​

4.1​

0.8​

16.6​

Connor Macdonald

Hawthorn

21​

21.96​

15​

10.0​

6.7​

16.7​

2.8​

5.4​

4.7​

5.1​

0.1​

0.8​

2.3​

1.0​

1.0​

0.9​

2.3​

0.5​

5.7​

0.3​

13.5​

Eddie Ford

North Melbourne

22​

22.52​

12​

8.0​

6.4​

14.5​

1.2​

5.8​

4.6​

5.3​

0.8​

1.8​

2.5​

1.2​

1.5​

0.6​

2.4​

0.5​

4.7​

1.0​

12.3​

Jack Ginnivan

Hawthorn

22​

22.06​

15​

10.9​

5.5​

16.4​

3.3​

5.0​

3.9​

4.4​

0.0​

1.3​

2.6​

1.0​

1.2​

1.1​

3.1​

0.5​

5.5​

0.8​

15.8​

Josh Rachele

Adelaide

21​

21.72​

15​

9.9​

5.4​

15.3​

3.2​

5.1​

4.0​

3.9​

0.3​

1.0​

2.1​

1.0​

1.3​

0.9​

2.6​

0.8​

5.6​

1.1​

15.0​

Nick Watson

Hawthorn

19​

19.84​

8​

7.1​

5.6​

12.7​

2.4​

5.9​

4.8​

3.9​

0.2​

1.7​

2.6​

1.4​

0.9​

2.6​

4.2​

0.6​

6.0​

1.2​

13.3​

Paul Curtis

North Melbourne

21​

21.82​

15​

7.3​

4.4​

11.7​

1.9​

5.7​

4.0​

3.6​

0.6​

1.2​

2.7​

1.3​

1.5​

0.9​

2.8​

0.6​

5.2​

0.8​

14.5​

​

Personally I’d have thought that the player that’s kicked the most goal, that would be the hawks and crows 3rd leading goal scorer would be the first picked. Let alone not being even included in the best 6 forwards.

Especially considering he’s playing in a team that gets about 20% less inside 50’s than the other two teams

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Im sure you rate MacDonald though.

I do, although he had a slow start to the year.