Which team out of Adelaide, North and Hawthorn has the better youth?

[Kreuuuzeurns]

I get your point but the big question is: will people be tipping Hawthorn to finish bottom 2 next season?

If your going to reply again answer that question.

I would wait until the draft and trade period before making any predictions.

 

[daniel23]

I would wait until the draft and trade period before making any predictions.

You've tried your hardest to stay relevant in this thread so pat yourself on the back for that .

 

[HeHateMe]

If perception is Hawthorn have progressed and are unlikely to finish bottom 2 next season. Isn't that a sign of a successful season for Hawthorn and a big tick to the youth who helped with that progression.

The context being the last few preseason they have been spoon/bottom 2 favourites because of questions around the youth.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

You've tried your hardest to stay relevant in this thread so pat yourself on the back for that .

I keep getting quoted by supporters who want praise for finishing 16th.

 

[TwiggleyFanClub]

If perception is Hawthorn have progressed and are unlikely to finish bottom 2 next season. Isn't that a sign of a successful season for Hawthorn and a big tick to the youth who helped with that progression.

The context being the last few preseason they have been spoon/bottom 2 favourites because of questions around the youth.

Hawthorn look like they have some great kids, but Mitchell's also coaching some real mongrel into the group as a whole.
Can't see them being being bottom 4 next year.

 

[peetoo]

The Hawks haven’t played finals for 5 seasons and haven’t won a final for 8 seasons. It comes at you quite quickly. Gotta feel sorry for a player like Blake Hardwick who will probably never see success in his career.

5 seasons with a sub 80 percentage? That would be grim. Just keep talking about how good you’ll be in 5 years, for 15 years. Are we due a new coach yet? Even. This season there were calls for Voss job

 

[Sizzlesilk]

Yet another fine round from
Josh Weddle moving him clear into 3rd spot in Rookie of the year.
Sheezel outstanding again.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Don't worry we have young players on our list who will develop into quality midfielders... Soligo, Pedlar, Rachele, Jones & Taylor who unfortunately was injured this year... & will be supported by for our experienced heads Dawson, Laird & Crouch. I'm sure we we will continue to improve our young list too.

It's great that your developing a handy midfield, but it takes longer to build a spine. I can only see one decent young key position player on your list, so much work to be done before you become a finals threat.

Agree that Hawthorn's key position stocks need further work and development (and the club has highlighted it will be a priority at trade time).

Not sure about only 1 decent prospect though (I assume you mean Mitch Lewis who is a very good KPF).

Whilst I don't think he will ever be All Australian level, James Blanck has been doing OK holding down full back. Held Naughton goalless on the weekend (albeit he missed 2 shots on goal) and restricts the opposition no 1 or 2 well most weeks. In terms of how you would rate him, I suppose it depends how you rate Jordon Butts? Because they are quite similar in terms of output. Blanck is 1 year younger than Butts, has played 1 third of the games and shades Butts for one on one wins and is around double for tackles and defensive pressure and equal for spoils and intercepts for this season.

Will McCabe can hardly be counted given he is not even in the AFL yet but he is SA's CHB at under 18 level, is rated about 12-20 in the draft and we will get him for some late picks as a father son.

Up forward, we are obviously looking for a candidate to partner Mitch Lewis. Kochitzke has his ups and downs and I don't know if he will make it or not. He has looked pretty decent lately though and played his best game on the weekend. He took 5 contested marks, often against multiple opponents. Given his marking has been his main knock, hoping this is the turning point after a few very solid games (much as Lewis had at a very similar stage).

Also not sure yet whether Brandon Ryan is the real deal or not? Kicked 3 goals against the ladder leaders in only his second game and has had a spectacular rise from local footy, to VFL, to AFL in under 12 months. Is 25 anyway so perhaps doesn't count regardless? Be interesting to see how he progresses nonetheless.

 

[toomanysquibs]

I keep getting quoted by supporters who want praise for finishing 16th.

Nobody is looking for praise from a blooz faboi who thinks their club's first trip to the finals in forever suddenly makes them relevant to any discussion on young talent.

You're literally the how to of failed rebuilds until you have one that does anything.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Indeed this thread is about elite talent. Notice how Crows had 4 players named in the best under 22 squad to Hawks 3...

Whilst I'm one that actually does rate the Adelaide youth and feel you are going in the right direction, I'm not sure the number of selections in the 22under22 squad is necessarily reflective of elite talent (or more selections equalling more elite talent).

I say this because not all selections are equal. In the same way that Gary Ablett Jnr's peak year when selected AA is not the same as the year Andrew Mackie was selected AA.

and that is the team not the squad and the actual AA not the under 22 version. I make this distinction as the under 22 squad has additional positional parameters that have a significant effect on selection. Most years, for example, they are forced into selecting some very poor rucks because there are very, very few young rucks eligible for selection so the ones that are are often selected regardless of how well they have played. This is also true of other roles and can be seen in the difference in quality in the midfield list compared to that of the defenders and forwards.

If you were to rank the 7 players selected from Adelaide and Hawthorn on their 2023 season, I think the list would start like this:

1. Newcombe
2. Day
3. Daylight

Newcombe, for example, is top 15 in the AFL across a range of key metrics, including coaches votes and is a chance a the actual AA squad. With all due respect to the Adelaide players (who have shown some good signs), they have not been near that level.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Nobody is looking for praise from a blooz faboi who thinks their club's first trip to the finals in forever suddenly makes them relevant to any discussion on young talent.

You're literally the how to of failed rebuilds until you have one that does anything.

I’m just a supporter buddy

 

[Sphynx]

There isn't a young player from North or Adelaide I'd take over day and newcombe. North fans how's Jacob Edwards tracking ? Is he as good as the great Charlie comben ?

He's going about as well as DGB I think....

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Whilst I'm one that actually does rate the Adelaide youth and feel you are going in the right direction, I'm not sure the number of selections in the 22under22 squad is necessarily reflective of elite talent (or more selections equalling more elite talent).

I say this because not all selections are equal. In the same way that Gary Ablett Jnr's peak year when selected AA is not the same as the year Andrew Mackie was selected AA.

and that is the team not the squad and the actual AA not the under 22 version. I make this distinction as the under 22 squad has additional positional parameters that have a significant effect on selection. Most years, for example, they are forced into selecting some very poor rucks because there are very, very few young rucks eligible for selection so the ones that are are often selected regardless of how well they have played. This is also true of other roles and can be seen in the difference in quality in the midfield list compared to that of the defenders and forwards.

If you were to rank the 7 players selected from Adelaide and Hawthorn on their 2023 season, I think the list would start like this:

1. Newcombe
2. Day
3. Daylight

Newcombe, for example, is top 15 in the AFL across a range of key metrics, including coaches votes and is a chance a the actual AA squad. With all due respect to the Adelaide players (who have shown some good signs), they have not been near that level.

most of them are younger than those 2 though. I think Rankine and Murray would have been in contention for the AA squad if they played a full season.

 

[Blackhawk42]

He's going about as well as DGB I think....

DGB's played 27 career games and kicked a goal in a winning side on the weekend?

Interesting, I didn't think Edwards had debuted yet.

 

[bluespooner]

He's going about as well as DGB I think....

You would be wrong.

Edwards frequently is getting single digit disposals in the VFL; whilst DGB has kicked a bag of 5 playing as fill in CHF at Box Hill Hawks, and has been more than serviceable at CHB. Now, he is getting games as the third tall in Hawthorn's forward line, a position he's not entirely suited, but has looked an aerial threat, especially on the weekend - halving contests and bringing the ball to ground, whilst kicking an occasional goal.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

most of them are younger than those 2 though. I think Rankine and Murray would have been in contention for the AA squad if they played a full season.

I don't think Murray would have been any chance to be honest. The standard for key defenders is very very high and there will be a number of top quality players who won't make the squad.

Last year, 5 key defenders made the squad (and 2-3 interceptor 3rd tall types) which is more than most years. Who, of the following, would he get a gig ahead of for 2023?

Darcy Moore
James Sicily
Tom Stewart
Jacob Weitering
Steven May
Harris Andrews
Callum Wilkie
Charlie Ballard
Sam Taylor (if we're talking playing every game)

even guys like Noah Balta (#1 for intercept marks) and Liam Jones (underated season)..

cos half of those players will miss the AA squad and I wouldn't think Murray was all that close to any of them.

Rankine is a maybe but is pretty unlikely too. He is 22nd in the Coleman and has only missed 3 games. Even on average, he is 20th so had he played every game (and played well) there would still be at least 15-18 guys with more goals (most with many more). I realise he does more than kick goals but rightly or wrongly, he would only be getting in as a small forward and that is the first metric looked at unless you have a ridiculous season as a hybrid and are putting up midfield numbers.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

He's going about as well as DGB I think....

Except that he isn’t.

Have you owned up to Will Day being a special player yet, or are you still saying that you don’t see it?

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

I don't think Murray would have been any chance to be honest. The standard for key defenders is very very high and there will be a number of top quality players who won't make the squad.

Last year, 5 key defenders made the squad (and 2-3 interceptor 3rd tall types) which is more than most years. Who, of the following, would he get a gig ahead of for 2023?

Darcy Moore
James Sicily
Tom Stewart
Jacob Weitering
Steven May
Harris Andrews
Callum Wilkie
Charlie Ballard
Sam Taylor (if we're talking playing every game)

even guys like Noah Balta (#1 for intercept marks) and Liam Jones (underated season)..

cos half of those players will miss the AA squad and I wouldn't think Murray was all that close to any of them.

Rankine is a maybe but is pretty unlikely too. He is 22nd in the Coleman and has only missed 3 games. Even on average, he is 20th so had he played every game (and played well) there would still be at least 15-18 guys with more goals (most with many more). I realise he does more than kick goals but rightly or wrongly, he would only be getting in as a small forward and that is the first metric looked at unless you have a ridiculous season as a hybrid and are putting up midfield numbers.

then you haven't watched Murray play much if you think he's not close to them. Has been one of the best lock down defenders this year.

only 4 other small forwards have more goals than Rankine, and Izak has more impact around the ground than 3 of them.

 

[HairyO]

then you haven't watched Murray play much if you think he's not close to them. Has been one of the best lock down defenders this year.

What are his one-on-one stats? Does he play on the key forward or a 2nd/3rd string?

What other measures do you use for someone being one of the best lockdown defenders?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Agree that Hawthorn's key position stocks need further work and development (and the club has highlighted it will be a priority at trade time).

Not sure about only 1 decent prospect though (I assume you mean Mitch Lewis who is a very good KPF).

Whilst I don't think he will ever be All Australian level, James Blanck has been doing OK holding down full back. Held Naughton goalless on the weekend (albeit he missed 2 shots on goal) and restricts the opposition no 1 or 2 well most weeks. In terms of how you would rate him, I suppose it depends how you rate Jordon Butts? Because they are quite similar in terms of output. Blanck is 1 year younger than Butts, has played 1 third of the games and shades Butts for one on one wins and is around double for tackles and defensive pressure and equal for spoils and intercepts for this season.

Will McCabe can hardly be counted given he is not even in the AFL yet but he is SA's CHB at under 18 level, is rated about 12-20 in the draft and we will get him for some late picks as a father son.

Up forward, we are obviously looking for a candidate to partner Mitch Lewis. Kochitzke has his ups and downs and I don't know if he will make it or not. He has looked pretty decent lately though and played his best game on the weekend. He took 5 contested marks, often against multiple opponents. Given his marking has been his main knock, hoping this is the turning point after a few very solid games (much as Lewis had at a very similar stage).

Also not sure yet whether Brandon Ryan is the real deal or not? Kicked 3 goals against the ladder leaders in only his second game and has had a spectacular rise from local footy, to VFL, to AFL in under 12 months. Is 25 anyway so perhaps doesn't count regardless? Be interesting to see how he progresses nonetheless.

Correct, I was referring to Lewis who is proven quality forward. You can see what a difference he makes to your winning chances when he plays, because the likes of Kozzie has been inconsistent. You need to find someone who can team up with Lewis going forward.

Blanck is still an unknown whether he will be long term AFL quality. Hawks really need to find a big quality key defender or preferably 2, with Sicily playing as a 3rd tall defender. May need to target in trade or FA period.

For the Crows, most would prefer Murray when he returns & Keane, with Worrell as 3rd tall defender. Butts as depth.

Forward line will be Fogarty & Thilthorpe once Tex retires, with father son Welsh or Gollant as 3rd tall.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Correct, I was referring to Lewis who is proven quality forward. You can see what a difference he makes to your winning chances when he plays, because the likes of Kozzie has been inconsistent. You need to find someone who can team up with Lewis going forward.

Blanck is still an unknown whether he will be long term AFL quality. Hawks really need to find a big quality key defender or preferably 2, with Sicily playing as a 3rd tall defender. May need to target in trade or FA period.

For the Crows, most would prefer Murray when he returns & Keane, with Worrell as 3rd tall defender. Butts as depth.

Forward line will be Fogarty & Thilthorpe once Tex retires, with father son Welsh or Gollant as 3rd tall.

Think the issue is, Blanck has been superb since returning from his issues earlier this year. He had a couple notable impressive games and he isn’t far off that Murray level, who’s very good but they’re both stoppers and don’t do much offensively yet.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Whilst I'm one that actually does rate the Adelaide youth and feel you are going in the right direction, I'm not sure the number of selections in the 22under22 squad is necessarily reflective of elite talent (or more selections equalling more elite talent).

I say this because not all selections are equal. In the same way that Gary Ablett Jnr's peak year when selected AA is not the same as the year Andrew Mackie was selected AA.

and that is the team not the squad and the actual AA not the under 22 version. I make this distinction as the under 22 squad has additional positional parameters that have a significant effect on selection. Most years, for example, they are forced into selecting some very poor rucks because there are very, very few young rucks eligible for selection so the ones that are are often selected regardless of how well they have played. This is also true of other roles and can be seen in the difference in quality in the midfield list compared to that of the defenders and forwards.

If you were to rank the 7 players selected from Adelaide and Hawthorn on their 2023 season, I think the list would start like this:

1. Newcombe
2. Day
3. Daylight

Newcombe, for example, is top 15 in the AFL across a range of key metrics, including coaches votes and is a chance a the actual AA squad. With all due respect to the Adelaide players (who have shown some good signs), they have not been near that level.

It's not just about the 7, rather who is likely to be AA quality going forward.

Imo, all of Thilthorpe, Rankine, Pedlar, Rachele, Soligo, Murray, Worrell & Michalanney all have the potential to be future All Australians.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Think the issue is, Blanck has been superb since returning from his issues earlier this year. He had a couple notable impressive games and he isn’t far off that Murray level, who’s very good but they’re both stoppers and don’t do much offensively yet.

Murray has been excellent all season & has improved his offensive side compared to last year, particularly improving his disposal. For me he is proven quality going forward.

I would liken Blanck more to Butts, who has a mixed season struggling with injuries. It's early days though.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

What are his one-on-one stats? Does he play on the key forward or a 2nd/3rd string?

What other measures do you use for someone being one of the best lockdown defenders?

Murray has been taking the #1 key forwards this year - taken this over from Butts & gone well past him.

 

[Go the Guts]

There isn't a young player from North or Adelaide I'd take over day and newcombe.

Here's a thought........