Prediction Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why? 2021 edition

Which 2-3 teams will drop out of the 8?

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Collingwood is the obvious one after the significant post-season upheaval.

Hard to nominate another team, but if the hunger wanes in any of them, they will be in trouble. St.Kilda with its swag of recycled players, Geelong with nearly its whole starting 18 at 28yo+ from early in the season, Richmond after falling off the pace in each of its flag years, West Coast after faltering late in 2020.

The other three I see as less at risk, motivation-wise.
 
Pies and Eagles.

Ignoring Richmond I'm hoping the Lions and Saints make the Grand Final. Doubt either will fall too far, if at all. Can see Carlton challenging the top 8 strongly. Think Port might slip slightly. Cats probably go a spot or two higher. Can see GWS making the 8 if they can pull themselves together.
 

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Ron The Bear said:
Collingwood is the obvious one after the significant post-season upheaval.

Hard to nominate another team, but if the hunger wanes in any of them, they will be in trouble. St.Kilda with its swag of recycled players, Geelong with nearly its whole starting 18 at 28yo+ from early in the season, Richmond after falling off the pace in each of its flag years, West Coast after faltering late in 2020.

The other three I see as less at risk, motivation-wise.
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Recycled? The club would have to toss them for a played to be termed recycled.

Carlisle left Essendon a wanted player and bagged the club so in turn someone leaked his cocaine video.
Crouch had been trying to leave the crows for two years.
Zak Jones a permanent senior at Sydney wanted to be in Melbourne.
Brad Hill wanted money.
Jack Steele wanted more midfield time and requested a trade.
Dan Hannebery was probably happily let go so thats one.
Dan Butler wanted more opportunity but still wanted.
Ryder was let go so thats two.
Howard and coach didn't see eye to eye so he decided to join St Kilda much to the dismay of Port fans.
Dean Kent i believe wanted out but not sure on that.
Membrey was let go so thats three.
Higgins a required player wanted more game time.

I count 14 players that were drafted who will push heavily for selection in the seniors next year not including anyone who may emerge.

Actually 15 now as Highmore is ready to play.
 
Veer Right said:
Recycled? The club would have to toss them for a played to be termed recycled.
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Probably the wrong word. It was late, don't hang me for it, it's not important.

Players at a new club tend to fire early if they're going to fire at all. Butler went from AFL fringe to borderline All-Australian. If he happened to revert to 2019 Butler, St.Kilda would take a hit. The Saints' late form wasn't as impressive and it's possible they may not have lasted to the finals in a full season.

Not confident at all that St.Kilda will miss, but 12-14 into 8 doesn't fit.
 
Veer Right said:
Recycled? The club would have to toss them for a played to be termed recycled.

Carlisle left Essendon a wanted player and bagged the club so in turn someone leaked his cocaine video.
Crouch had been trying to leave the crows for two years.
Zak Jones a permanent senior at Sydney wanted to be in Melbourne.
Brad Hill wanted money.
Jack Steele wanted more midfield time and requested a trade.
Dan Hannebery was probably happily let go so thats one.
Dan Butler wanted more opportunity but still wanted.
Ryder was let go so thats two.
Howard and coach didn't see eye to eye so he decided to join St Kilda much to the dismay of Port fans.
Dean Kent i believe wanted out but not sure on that.
Membrey was let go so thats three.
Higgins a required player wanted more game time.

I count 14 players that were drafted who will push heavily for selection in the seniors next year not including anyone who may emerge.

Actually 15 now as Highmore is ready to play.
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You should make the 8 but it’s not a very intimidating group honestly.
 
Virus said:
You should make the 8 but it’s not a very intimidating group honestly.
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Yet i look over the list, think of the expected improvement from our younger brigade as 17 players on the list who will play seniors next year are 25 or under.
I then look at the ladder and fear not a side under us this year heading into next.
As for the five sides above us, i still have no fear and expect us to push those teams hard.

One of us is reading it wrong.

Maybe you get caught up in individual accolades. Richmond doesn't appear to have a star list in my eyes but they are a star team. That's the difference between Richmond and Geelong.
 
Veer Right said:
Yet i look over the list, think of the expected improvement from our younger brigade as 17 players on the list who will play seniors next year are 25 or under.
I then look at the ladder and fear not a side under us this year heading into next.
As for the five sides above us, i still have no fear and expect us to push those teams hard.
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That's fair enough but I suspect you began this thread feeling that St.Kilda was safe from nomination. Not everyone will see it the same way and as the new kid on the block, many will see the Saints as less "proven" than other contenders and therefore vulnerable.
 
Ron The Bear said:
That's fair enough but I suspect you began this thread feeling that St.Kilda was safe from nomination. Not everyone will see it the same way and as the new kid on the block, many will see the Saints as less "proven" than other contenders and therefore vulnerable.
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Wasn't concerned us being nominated as when i look at the top eight it looks very strong and hard to see who will push into it in hindsight. Someone has to be nominated and i was initially surprised people stating Geelong will miss. Just wanted to get my opinion out there and rebuke on what i took as a slight towards the club. Happy to debate that if you see error in my thinking.

Btw i do see your point. :)
 
A few points on us, as we're a current topic. Despite fielding on average the 3rd youngest team in the comp for the year, there were only 3 games (out of the 19 we played) that we weren't in up to our necks to the very end, and two of them were against the eventual grand finalists. With the other one against Collingwood at the MCG, early in the year, when they were on fire, and we just didn't show up.

In every other game we either won, or they went down to the wire, and two of those losses were games we pretty much threw away, after leading by 5 goals. In total we lost 4 games by under 5 points, and we lost another after leading by over a goal early in the last, and then trailing by 8 inside the last 2 mins.

So inexperience cost us as many as 5 more wins (we won just 2 of our 7 games that went down to the wire).

We also had comfortable wins over two of the eventual prelim finalists (including being the only team to beat Port in Adelaide- by 29 points) and two other wins over finals teams, so I'm not sure the harder draw will scare us too much.

While it's true that we weren't as good late in the year, part of the reason for that was losing Gresham from our midfield after round 11.

With him in the team we won 7 from 11, but after we lost him we went 4-4, which was a reflection of our lack of quality midfield depth to replace him (with Hannebery and Dunstan also unavailable for most of that time), but that's why adding Crouch is so important to our chances.

Add Crouch (and to a lesser extent Higgins), get Gresham back, and who knows, maybe Hannebery plays most games, and all things being equal we're immediately much stronger and deeper through the midfield, and able to squeeze out the last picked guys from this year, like Kent and Lonie.

We could absolutely miss the 8, but it's probably more likely that we're pushing for top 4. Especially being that year more experienced as a team.

As inexperienced as we generally were this year, we could still have as many as 19 guys on our list who have played 100 games, by about round 20 next year.
 
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I'd love to see Richmond fall away, but they won't. Geelong will get better as they have a number of younger players ready to embarass those who wirte them off yet again? Collingwood will be lucky to avoid the spoon and West Coast are more than iffy, Freo might surprise as will the Blues otherwise it will be similar.
 
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Veer Right said:
Yet i look over the list, think of the expected improvement from our younger brigade as 17 players on the list who will play seniors next year are 25 or under.
I then look at the ladder and fear not a side under us this year heading into next.
As for the five sides above us, i still have no fear and expect us to push those teams hard.

One of us is reading it wrong.

Maybe you get caught up in individual accolades. Richmond doesn't appear to have a star list in my eyes but they are a star team. That's the difference between Richmond and Geelong.
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Well that’s Geelong’s biggest problem, isn’t it? Most star power in the comp but that brings individualism and ego.

We’re a team with a star on every line and not much else. A more successful version of GWS the past 4 years or so but without the handouts.
 

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Boyd oh Boyd said:
I'm surprised people are voting for the Saints. It's possible it was a 2018 Melbourne-ish one off, but they seem as well coached as any side and I don't see that changing. All that's letting them down is that they rely on so many younger, inconsistent players. Once they mature a bit more I think they're easily top 4.
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I wouldn't be surprised they finished top four.
 
Off Tap said:
No chance the Eagles drop out next year as we were 1 game from 3rd place this year.

If we get an even number of home games we'd need a major calamity not to win enough games to finish top 8.
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Yeah ok.... no chance. I reckon you'll miss.
 
Roby said:
Yeah ok.... no chance. I reckon you'll miss.
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I'd love to hear your thoughts on why?

2nd, 6th, 8th, 2nd, 5th, 5th with the same squad last 6th years. We've lost none of our current team.

As I said, need a major calamity to fall off out of the 8.

More chance the Hawks making the 8 than us falling out and we all know that isn't happening anytime soon.
 
Boyd oh Boyd said:
I'm surprised people are voting for the Saints. It's possible it was a 2018 Melbourne-ish one off, but they seem as well coached as any side and I don't see that changing. All that's letting them down is that they rely on so many younger, inconsistent players. Once they mature a bit more I think they're easily top 4.
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Anything can happen with any of the sides that made the top 8 in 2020.

Demons made that prelim in 2018 and finished bottom 2 in 2019 due to injuries.

Yes saints finished in the top 6 this season. But I can see either the saints, Dogs or even the eagles go from a 5th to 8th placed finals team to finishing 9th-12th in 2021 if they get a fair bit of injuries.
 
I think St Kilda will have a good season and finish 9th. 12-10 record and just miss out either by percentage or a close loss that they’ll end up regretting.

Collingwood and Port to also miss. Port lack consistency from year to year under Hinkley.
 
RUNVS said:
Collingwood and Bulldogs for me. Collingwood for obvious reasons like losing some good players and also having a coach that has clearly shown to be amoral and the Bulldogs because I feel like they barely scraped into the finals in 2019 and I think a few teams below them are improving faster.
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Buckley amoral - why?
 
Virus said:
Well that’s Geelong’s biggest problem, isn’t it? Most star power in the comp but that brings individualism and ego.

We’re a team with a star on every line and not much else. A more successful version of GWS the past 4 years or so but without the handouts.
Click to expand...

I 100% disagree. The problem is that we don't have enough stars. Dangerfield, Hawkins and Stewart are the only elite players now IMO (obviously Selwood was but he hasn't been for 2 years now) and Stewart is half back so not even a structural player. If Cameron recaptures his 2019 form he will be added to that group next year.
 

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Prediction Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why? 2021 edition

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