Prediction Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why? 2021 edition

[Hamingja]

Not confident at all that St.Kilda will miss, but 12-14 into 8 doesn't fit.

12-14 teams is pretty generous I feel.

I wouldn't say anyone outside the 8 is banging the door down to make it next year.

Carlton and Melbourne should be about the mark. GC possibly can make a large jump if absolutely everything goes right for them.

Everyone else is either not good enough or has significant internal problems which will make it tough.

 

[JayJ20]

12-14 teams is pretty generous I feel.

I wouldn't say anyone outside the 8 is banging the door down to make it next year.

Carlton and Melbourne should be about the mark. GC possibly can make a large jump if absolutely everything goes right for them.

Everyone else is either not good enough or has significant internal problems which will make it tough.

Fremantle absolutely can. I thinK Fremantle, GWS, Melbourne and Gold Coast are the most likely to make that jump.

 

[dylan93]

Just the Pies for mine.

 

[Rob R]

Pies for sure, WC maybe with some aging players but their okay list, home crowd and umpiring advantages should help them stay in the 8.

Geelong the other one that might miss, ruck still weak, reliant on older players etc.

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[Ron The Bear]

12-14 teams is pretty generous I feel.

I wouldn't say anyone outside the 8 is banging the door down to make it next year.

Carlton and Melbourne should be about the mark. GC possibly can make a large jump if absolutely everything goes right for them.

Everyone else is either not good enough or has significant internal problems which will make it tough.

A little improvement here, a little deterioration there and plenty of clubs can swap ladder positions. There's not much margin in it, e.g. Melbourne has comfortably enough talent.

 

[Great8]

Pies for sure, WC maybe with some aging players but their okay list, home crowd and umpiring advantages should help them stay in the 8.

Geelong the other one that might miss, ruck still weak, reliant on older players etc.

The same reason you use for West Coast applies to Geelong aswell.
Cats with their home ground advantage and umpiring down there won’t drop many if any. No way they miss the 8

 

[Rob R]

The same reason you use for West Coast applies to Geelong aswell.
Cats with their home ground advantage and umpiring down there won’t drop many if any. No way they miss the 8

That is a good point but I was thinking they dont get as many home games in geelong (given they play the big vic teams at the G) compared to West Coast

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[Off Tap]

Would that be because you barrack for them?

West Coast could easily miss the 8 if they lose a couple of home games early and/or cop significant injuries.

They still have to win 12- 13 games.

West Coast would be one of the last sides that you'd bet against to miss the top 8. The same Tigers, Cats, Lions and Port.

With the squad we have our home ground advantage to too great. A couple of years after perhaps.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

They said the same thing about Sydney, eventually it came true.

You're not much of a prognosticator if you make the same wrong prediction year after year after year and then one year it eventually comes true. I swear Geelong has been tipped to drop out of the top eight in these threads every year since 2010.

 

[almuz]

As I put up in the 2021 predictions thread -

Over the past 14 years there has been an average turnover of 2.6 teams going out of the top 8. In that time it has never been less than 2 and never more than 4.

 

[PJays]

It's interesting that so many of the top 11 improved their lists (Port- Alir,Fantasia. Bris- Daniher. Gee- Cameron,Higgins, Smith. Saints- Crouch, Higgins. Dogs- Treloar. Mel- Brown. Carl- Saad, Williams).

Coll and GWS had major downgrades but I still see both as quality teams. Wouldn't surprise me if either, or both, made top 4.

Having said that, I chose Collingwood as my only poll choice, as most likely to miss the 8. Unsure what their off-season could do to their culture.

If you look at some top sides, anything could happen.

Last year Richmond lost Rance, Ellis, Butler. This year Higgins, Markov. They keep losing depth. If they have a tough run with injuries again (like stages of 2019 and 2020) might find it harder to recover this time.

Port have some older players left over from 13-14 plus a few young stars. The minor premiership flattered them, with the covid situation helping. They have that feel of a team who could be up for a year or two, then drop back down.

Geelong have assembled a super talented team, all chips on the table. But, they're the oldest team in history and will be older again. 15 or 16 of their best 22 being 28 or over. Taylor might be an underrated out, also lost some depth with a couple of young players and Steven. Serious premiership chance but also serious chance of falling off a cliff.

I still think those teams much more likely to make the 8 than not, just pointing out how anything can happen in the AFL, especially with so many improved lists.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Cats are stuffed going by how our opponents in 17&19 went the following year.
Besides the fact we have the cats 1st next year.

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

How do you explain 2019 then?

We have four 30+ year olds that were best 22 this season who may regress with Rich (30) who just had a career best year and Zorko (31) who was carrying an injury this season, being the two important ones. Robbo (31) had a poor year and expect him to be overtaken by some of our younger players. Likewise Birchall (32) might have his position under threat.

But we also have a lot of players that have scope for further improvement - McCluggage (22), Berry (22), Hipwood (23), Ah Chee (23), Starcevich (21), Bailey (21), Answerth (21) and Rayner (21) were all best 22 this season. Throw in Robertson (19), Payne (21), Fullarton (21) and Coleman (20) who showed a bit at senior level and will push for a spot in the best 22.

Our best players aren't too old either including Neale (27), Lyons (28) and Cameron (26). Andrews turned 24 today and is already a dual All-Australian.

I think our side from this year has a lot of scope for improvement. That doesn't even include what Daniher (26) and Cockatoo (24) might bring to the side as well.

2019 you guys arrived and did a fantastic job ... but i think lots of people saw that 2020 in normal conditions was going to be harder for you as you were seen by other teams as a threat and were due to get a harder fixture as part of you 2019 success .. thats not to say you wouldnt have risen for the challange but given the nature of this season with the home games you got its not a form guide you would base your assesment of the team due to the circumstances ...
I rate the lions team very much ... your midfield is strong you have great leaders and the young guys are exceptionally good and i do think you will be in the top 8 easily i just dont know if yet you are going to be the best or second best team in the comp in 2021 ...

 

[Fourthawn]

Last two teams to get spanked by Richmond in a grand final have missed the 8 the following year. Things happen in threes ...

 

[North park]

It does seem very risky making 2021 predictions based on 2020 results.

Remember the “year like no other” had:

- Victorian clubs playing most of their games interstate, predominantly Queensland (including living in hubs)
- Brisbane and Gold Coast playing most of their games in their home state
- a 17 round season instead of the usual 22, with no double-up fixtures
- games being played with shortened 16 minute quarters
- teams having to play regularly with 4-5 day breaks, instead of 6-7 days, which resulted in more fringe players getting game time
- clubs having to shed support staff, including assistant coaches.

We saw that some clubs, and some players, adapted better than others.

I can see the same in 2021 - some will adapt better back to”normal” conditions.They may not be the same ones who thrived in 2020 conditions.

 

[evo]

Last two teams to get spanked by Richmond in a grand final have missed the 8 the following year. Things happen in threes ...

i d be good with that.

 

[phantom13]

I cant say i understand anyone picking Geelong.

Unless they just have a swathe of injuries (which given they are f**king old... maybe) they made the grand final this year and added nothing but class.

Theyll probably fall off a cliff at some point, but not 2021.

 

[Coach_Required]

I think Collingwood is hanging by a thread but if they can have a decent run with injuries their best 22 is good enough.

Saints for me, just not sold on them yet however I wasn't sold on the Lions a few years back but they are definitely now a top 4 team IMO, so its still plausible.

Any of the top 8 sides could fall out, it only takes some key injuries to key players to ruin a season. A mini form slump could also cause teams to lose the plot as the pressure mounts up.

Of the teams pushing to make the 8, I can see improvement from Freo & Carlton the most likely.

 

[pulpdriver]

I honestly struggle to see two teams falling out next year. I know historically every year a couple teams drop out but I sure as Hell can't pick it.

The top 4 last year looked a level above the rest of the comp to a more distinct degree for a while and aside from the Tigers, who didn't really need to, all of those teams have improved their lists through trade and F/A. Geelong's list looks spectacular and they're a seasoned, finals hardy outfit that should be hungry to repent. Lions and Port have a fair bit of development to come in their younger players too. Can't see any of the top 4 dropping out of the 8, perhaps even 4.

West Coast underperformed this year and should be a lot better than they were. If anyone jumps up to 4, it'll be them. They'd need injury to drop out of the 8. Don't see it happening.
Dogs another team that should be better on paper than they were and they've managed to strengthen their already extremely strong midfield further and have been given the best player in the draft as a freebie who can be the foil Naughton needs, perhaps from the get-go. They should definitely be better than this year.
Saints improved their midfield and strengthened their depth and have a decent share of young guns in the 22. They could drop but it would be surprising, you'd imagine natural development would see them improve.
Pies I see dropping but that's it. And if they hold their best 22 together all year then they could realistically still sneak in.

Giants list has gotten definitively worse and they already had issues.
North, Bombers and Crows rebuilding.
Freo, Suns and Swans developing with good looking lists, but it's probably a bit early for that jump to finals contention.
Hawks kinda seem to be in limbo. No idea where they're at or what they're doing.

Pretty much leaves Demons and Carlton as the two teams most likely to jump into the eight. Carlton improved their list through trade and F/A more than any other team and already had a great developing, albeit underachieving list.
Demons brought in Brown who if regains his form helps them a lot up forward. You'd think they should be better than they are based on paper but some of their performances just make me question if the right coaching and management is there.

On that I'm gonna predict only 1 change with Carlton into the Eight and Pies out.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Yeah pretty much agree completely with that last post, that it's hard to make a case for any team orther than Collingwood, but that's probably the case most years, and that's where things like injuries and really hard draws can knock a team or two out unexpectedly.

 

[garlic munchers]

WC only miss the 8 next year if they lose a derby.

Odds are fairly long for this to happen for at least another year, particularly with WC having acquired more depth in AFL competent players.

Even longer odds is no change to the 8 next year, but that gets my bet.

 

[Giant Gutsache]

Pies and Saints (sadly) drop out. Replaced by Freo and Suns. Suns top 4.

 

[queensberryrules]

Tiges for sure. Look cooked, old, slow etc.

 

[Lex22]

I'm surprised people are voting for the Saints. It's possible it was a 2018 Melbourne-ish one off, but they seem as well coached as any side and I don't see that changing. All that's letting them down is that they rely on so many younger, inconsistent players. Once they mature a bit more I think they're easily top 4.

Don’t know about that, I felt like a lot just clicked for them this season and not sure there’s that much improvement there. Next season tells us more on their ceiling.

 

[Lex22]

Pies and Saints most likely (if there are changes) to drop out of the 8 you’d think but who is banging down the door to replace them? Think Freo improve, perhaps Carlton too, but you couldn’t be confident in either. Suns and/or Swans the bolters if everything pans out? Maybe.

Melbourne and GWS perhaps seem the most obvious, but again, no certainties with either of them.