Prediction Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why? 2021 edition

[Cdog71]

Port
Saints

I think Port benefited most from last year and least affected by injuries.
Longer quarters and wider grounds they’ll need to use more players to get to stoppages to be as good as it again.

I cant help but think Sainters won games on emotion last year with all the recruits wanting a shot at finals, I dont think it’s going to carry them to the last handful of games this season if goes back out to 22 games and I dont think they’ve been playing together long enough to fall back on a system when theyre really fatigued and need the grit to win in Aug/Sept.

I’d be surprised if Collingwood fall out.
I think Buckley gets em playing thinking of their injuries and not really bringing in a game changer last few years he gets them playing the way he wants.
Treloar isnt in the top 50 players in the comp but was played in his best position and probably had to be with his salary. He’s just a kick chaser and with that role open now for Elliot and others they might start getting more creative.
Stephenson wouldve benefited from that but they had to put somebody up other clubs wanted I spose but the fact he ended up at North is telling.
Not really in the window.

Saints Port
Carlton Freo

 

[JustaBattler]

GWS | Melbourne are capable of beating most of the finalists from '20.

 

[WestCoast05]

"If you're good enough you'll win" is a saying for dull ppl who have no ability to really think or analyse properly (or have short term memory loss).
Season defining ladder positions are literally determined by percentage (let along 1 win) every year.

Of course hardness of fixture matters - it can be the difference between 9th or 8th.
It can be the difference between making 5 - 8 or making top 4. It can be the difference between that home final or playing your final at a team with an easier draw's home.
It really can be the difference between a PREMIERSHIP or not (since a bit of luck is needed for every premiership).

Of course St Kilda fans should be pissed - they got handed a harder fixture than teams that finished above them.
And they are starting to finally head into a window of sorts so of course it matters.
And yes of course there is nothing you can do about it, and whinging about it won't do anything etc etc but this is a footy forum - of course they should be kicking up a stink.

Anyone who thinks they shouldn't care because "if you're good enough..."

Morons.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Tigers. The internal turmoil is brewing.

You’ve nailed it here SOTY. Because there isn’t much externally that is going to create turmoil.

 

[PJays]

It can be the difference between making 5 - 8 or making top 4.

Absolutely it can.

And since the current finals system was introduced, 1 team from outside top 4 has even made the Grand Final. Out of 84 teams!

The finals system is heavily weighted towards giving the top 4 every opportunity to win the flag.

And of course the fixture can help or hinder your chances.

The difference between the easiest fixture and the toughest fixture would be worth 2 or 3 games. Even a tough vs moderate fixture might be worth 1 or 1.5 games.

We don't know exactly how tough St Kildas fixture is. If West Coast and Richmond are overrun by injuries and win 8 games all year, suddenly it's alright.

But based on 2020, St Kilda starts 2021 season with a disadvantage up to 2 or 3 games, compared to other AFL teams.

 

[gingernuts]

Richmond will miss because of an inbred culture

 

[Marmozet]

Western Bulldogs and Collingwood. Dogs have too many midfielders and not enough KPP. All those midfielders won't be any good if all they've got to kick to is Josh Bruce

17

Josh Bruce

Age

32

Ht

198cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.2

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

4.6

3star

M

4.5

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

90.4

1star

D

8.9

2star

K

3.5

1star

HB

5.4

3star

M

2.5

3star

T

1.3

2star

MG

90.4

2star

D

11.2

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.8

3star

. Collingwood have been in turmoil since the season ended...but I still have a funny feeling about them. Everyone thinks they'll drop off but they could just as easily shock everyone and win the flag.

So Dogs and Pies out, Melbourne and Freo in!

I also wouldn't be surprised if we missed. 2015 still haunts me.

 

[Marmozet]

I think Port benefited most from last year and least affected by injuries.

Really? Connor Rozee, Scott Lycett, Xavier Duursma, Todd Marshall and Ryan Burton are a few that missed fair chunks through injury.

 

[Cdog71]

Really? Connor Rozee, Scott Lycett, Xavier Duursma, Todd Marshall and Ryan Burton are a few that missed fair chunks through injury.

I might be wrong but I thought there was a lot more teams using more players over the entire season.

I do think shortened quarters suited the Port game style and they played quite a few home games compared to the rest of the comp

 

[Mat Mann]

Could try Bruce down back with likely combo forward line of JUH and Noughton

Bruce is worse as a back than he is Fwd

 

[Catsnlakers]

Western Bulldogs and Collingwood. Dogs have too many midfielders and not enough KPP. All those midfielders won't be any good if all they've got to kick to is Josh Bruce. Collingwood have been in turmoil since the season ended...but I still have a funny feeling about them. Everyone thinks they'll drop off but they could just as easily shock everyone and win the flag.

So Dogs and Pies out, Melbourne and Freo in!

I also wouldn't be surprised if we missed. 2015 still haunts me.

Freo is an interesting one, I still think they lack enough genuine scoring power to be a finalist, they’re certainly on the right track but I see the Blues & Giants as more likely than them to come in.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Western Bulldogs and Collingwood. Dogs have too many midfielders and not enough KPP. All those midfielders won't be any good if all they've got to kick to is Josh Bruce. Collingwood have been in turmoil since the season ended...but I still have a funny feeling about them. Everyone thinks they'll drop off but they could just as easily shock everyone and win the flag.

So Dogs and Pies out, Melbourne and Freo in!

I also wouldn't be surprised if we missed. 2015 still haunts me.

Fair enough to predict us missing, but talking about no KPF and then saying Freo will replace us is a bit odd.

 

[FreeTK]

Freo is an interesting one, I still think they lack enough genuine scoring power to be a finalist, they’re certainly on the right track but I see the Blues & Giants as more likely than them to come in.

Some of Fremantle problems with scoring is their ultra conservative ball movement. It means they are hard to score against (hence their high defensive rating) and not able to score very much. That is a tactical decision, and I wonder if much of that is down to the personnel they were missing down back (no true KPD).

If their availability down back improves (it will- it literally can’t get worse) we might find they start taking more risk ball in hand.

It’s longmuirs first season so there isn’t a lot of data available on how he wants Fremantle playing when he has decent availability across the ground.

Folks are sleeping on Fremantle, they are one team that could make a big jump, given the natural improvement from youngsters, a coach with more experience after a season in the big chair, and an overhauled S&C team.




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[FreeTK]

"If you're good enough you'll win" is a saying for dull ppl who have no ability to really think or analyse properly (or have short term memory loss).
Season defining ladder positions are literally determined by percentage (let along 1 win) every year.

Of course hardness of fixture matters - it can be the difference between 9th or 8th.
It can be the difference between making 5 - 8 or making top 4. It can be the difference between that home final or playing your final at a team with an easier draw's home.
It really can be the difference between a PREMIERSHIP or not (since a bit of luck is needed for every premiership).

Of course St Kilda fans should be pissed - they got handed a harder fixture than teams that finished above them.
And they are starting to finally head into a window of sorts so of course it matters.
And yes of course there is nothing you can do about it, and whinging about it won't do anything etc etc but this is a footy forum - of course they should be kicking up a stink.

Anyone who thinks they shouldn't care because "if you're good enough..."

Morons.

This is sort of true as far as supporters are concerned.

I hope for their sake, the st kilda players don’t share this attitude, as it verges on defeatist.

We saw a great example of the two attitudes look like in reality when we saw west coast and port Adelaide in the first hub.


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[ParapMarkets]

I think the Saints are the most likely to drop out. I think their game plan will get dissected further so it will be interesting to see how they respond. They have a tough draw also. They have improved their squad though and King looks like he could be a superstar.

Not sure of the other team to drop out, I voted Collingwood, but you can make a case they will be up in finals again.

 

[Dazb86]

Western Bulldogs and Collingwood. Dogs have too many midfielders and not enough KPP. All those midfielders won't be any good if all they've got to kick to is Josh Bruce. Collingwood have been in turmoil since the season ended...but I still have a funny feeling about them. Everyone thinks they'll drop off but they could just as easily shock everyone and win the flag.

So Dogs and Pies out, Melbourne and Freo in!

I also wouldn't be surprised if we missed. 2015 still haunts me.

With any luck we'll get a full year out of Naughton. He's completing his first full pre season since he joined us.

 

[aussierulesrules]

With any luck we'll get a full year out of Naughton. He's completing his first full pre season since he joined us.

Could be ready to take the comp by the scruff of the neck.

 

[Dazb86]

Could be ready to take the comp by the scruff of the neck.

I'd just be happy if he won our goalkicking award. We've had a few lean years for leading goalkicker awards recently. 40+ would be massive

 

[Bring-Back-Powell]

Richmond, Brisbane, St Kilda and Western Bulldogs to miss finals.

GWS, Carlton, Sydney and Hawthorn to make finals.

 

[prodigy1311]

Richmond, Brisbane, St Kilda and Western Bulldogs to miss finals.

GWS, Carlton, Sydney and Hawthorn to make finals.

I had to read it twice!
but hey you must have a strong feeling....!

 

[gingernuts]

Richmond, Brisbane, St Kilda and Western Bulldogs to miss finals.

GWS, Carlton, Sydney and Hawthorn to make finals.

The team of yeast Richmond are a chance to miss. All of their supporters are in bread

 

[no. 4]

Collingwood and West Coast. Collingwood an obvious choice given they have weakened their list in the short term. West Coast simply due to the age of some of their key players.

 

[ScragCity]

Have heard from someone high up in the AFL that Geelong and Collingwood will be the teams that miss this year.

 

[BangyBangy]

Whether the hubs return could have a serious impact on who drops out. If the hubs were set up in SA/WA instead of QLD, it makes Brisbane an outside chance (otherwise I'd have them basically a lock for top 4). Establishing a hub in WA locks the Eagles in, who otherwise could drop out depending on the fitness of Yeo and how their spine goes next year (do Kennedy and Hurn perform or drop off? How do their replacements go?).

Collingwood are the only pick I'm confident in saying will drop out. The other I feel could be dependent on hubs, but realistically I'd be picking one of Brisbane, Dogs, Saints or West Coast to slide depending on circumstances. I feel Port, Geelong and Richmond are really the only safe picks

Hopefully there are no hubs required in 2021. But if there are hubs, I reckon there's a greater chance of one being on the moon than in WA. Easier to get to.

 

[Fadge]

Hmmmm.

So does everyone still think the likes of Carlton, Melbourne and Freo will replace Collingwood, West Coast and the Bulldogs in the 8?

Or do we still need a few weeks for reality to set in?