Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why?

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Bombers and probably GWS

With better luck on the injuries front next year, but then again, a GF loss like that could prove soul-crushing...

Might end up having a season like Port's 2008
 
Hopefully The GWS I think the tigers tore the fabric of that 'club' in the Grand Final and they will be unable to recover, a bit like the job WC did on Melbourne in the prelim last year, that club hasn't been the same since. Also Geelong, TK will be a huge loss for them and Dangerwood just get older each year. Ablett will be a liability. Love seeing them struggle, can't wait for 2020!
 
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I can see why people think we will have a tougher year next year but the comparisons with Melbourne next year dont stack up that well at the moment.

From what I gather Melbourne had a huge number of injuries and guys needing post-season surgery. Most of them missed large chunks of the pre-season and didnt start match simulation until almost the start of the year.

Brisbane at this point have no-one (or 1 player?) having had post-season surgery. If our luck holds and we get no random off season injury, we will start the pre-season with a full list. That should set us up better than Melbourne.

But as most have said the harder draw (even if this years was basically the same as Geelongs) and the untested depth will probably see us lower in the 8
 
I can see why people think we will have a tougher year next year but the comparisons with Melbourne next year dont stack up that well at the moment.

From what I gather Melbourne had a huge number of injuries and guys needing post-season surgery. Most of them missed large chunks of the pre-season and didnt start match simulation until almost the start of the year.

Brisbane at this point have no-one (or 1 player?) having had post-season surgery. If our luck holds and we get no random off season injury, we will start the pre-season with a full list. That should set us up better than Melbourne.

But as most have said the harder draw (even if this years was basically the same as Geelongs) and the untested depth will probably see us lower in the 8
Yep I don't think you'll fall away at all.
If you stagnate a bit (which would be completely understandable how quickly you rose) you'll finish a bit lower, but nowhere near to the extent Melbourne did.
If you improve though, you're a genuine premiership threat.
 
Essendon have to go either way, right?

They’re a team that’s gone heavily in on winning now and got nowhere. Some of the key cogs are getting older and there’s a nice young crew, but potentially not much in the middle.

We saw cracks appear this year (the Bulldogs 21 straight goals, for example) yet they limped into finals.

I reckon they either pull it together Richmond style and finish top 4, or it all falls apart, they sack the coach, Daniher and a couple of others walk and they put Hurley, Hooker et almost to pasture and rebuild around McGrath and the young crew.
 
Pies and Geelong for mine, the cats will struggle to cling to the 8 with a tougher draw and natural decline of their best players with not much coming through while the pies are same same a team full of mids that are very average, their list builder needs a kick in the arse...
 
Still a very young team with a lot of players still a long way from their peak. The likes of Rayner McCluggage Hipwood Berry Witherden. We'll be okay without Hodge and recruited Birchall as stop gap. Our other new ins Ah Chee and Ellis-Yolmen at the very least will improve our depth.

We may miss the 4 but should make the 8 again

I hope so.

But also I think that if most teams get a couple of significant injuries they can slide. Especially with a harder fixture.

I am really behind Rayner... more than most other judges. I have seen enough that he could be a top 5 player in the comp in the next 2-5 years.
 

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Essendon are an ordinary team who have sold the farm for minor improvement over-all and the Cats who seem to be accumulating a retirement village of a team, do they have share in a Geelong Lifestyle Village?
 
I think this is spot on the money. Wish it were otherwise but our fortunes are resting on key players that don’t want to be there and a coaching transition that gives both coaches a “get-out-of-jail-free” card for 2020....:(
Sliding down a fair bit and grabbing a nice draft pick is prob the best thing that could happen to essendon - reset reload and come back stronger - no use perpetually coming bottom of the top 8 then being finals fodder
 
Essendon and Brisbane.

Essendon for obvious reasons. Brisbane because they had a favourable draw this year and basically no injuries. They'll have a much harder draw next year and if they get any significant amount of injuries they're going to find it a lot tougher.
 

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Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why?

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