Which two teams will drop out of the 8 next year and why?

[Rod Stroker]

Essendon the most likely.
Dogs or Lions the other.

GWS are NO chance to drop out of the 8.

 

[threesixpio]

Hey a least they're not druggos any more

Good point but they are still Essendon

 

[Kappa]

Lots of teams suffer mentally after a horrific grand final, GWS will miss and the heat will come on Cameron.

Essendon and the Bulldogs I have as 50/50 chances to make it, Bris WCE Coll Richmond Geelong the certainties to make it again.

 

[Whiskers]

At this point I think only Essendon will drop out and can’t think of a good reason any of the other 7 would.
However things happen, didn’t think Melbourne would finish 17th in 2019.

 

[kranky al]

Lots of teams suffer mentally after a horrific grand final, GWS will miss and the heat will come on Cameron.

Essendon and the Bulldogs I have as 50/50 chances to make it, Bris WCE Coll Richmond Geelong the certainties to make it again.

Ross lyon likes this

 

[B4Bear]

At this point I think only Essendon will drop out and can’t think of a good reason any of the other 7 would.
However things happen, didn’t think Melbourne would finish 17th in 2019.

Wait until Melbourne finish 18th next year, and North get #1 pick. Oh the joy of expectation.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

A lot of people are trying to predict form drops but how is the depth looking for these clubs? Richmond proved they bat deep but which of the other clubs handle having 2 of their best 3 players out for most of the year?

I reckon if Geelong lose Hawkins, if Brisbane lose Neale, if Collingwood lose Grundy, if West Coast lose Darling, if Bulldogs lose Bont and if Essendon lose Merrett they could struggle to adapt. GWS I don't know what to make of.

 

[liam123]

I don’t think the cats will necessarily miss but I wouldn’t be surprised. Can’t see them
Being better than 5-8th next year. Ageing list and all that..

 

[Yoey]

One thing is for certain, the Hawks are going into the 8.

 

[Mofra]

GWS, based on the history of teams to suffer big GF defeats
Essendon as I'm not sure their two big weaknesses have been addressed.

 

[Roaming Lou]

I reckon if Geelong lose Hawkins they could struggle to adapt.

Fair point, but Hawkins can often be a blight on the team, he can be absolutely hopeless some days .
Geelong should be able to work around it if he goes. And if he does they will probably get someone good in his place.

 

[Davey33]

Lots of teams suffer mentally after a horrific grand final, GWS will miss and the heat will come on Cameron.

Essendon and the Bulldogs I have as 50/50 chances to make it, Bris WCE Coll Richmond Geelong the certainties to make it again.

Port in 2008 and onwards
that would be the most obvious recent comparison

 

[boncer34]

Dons, Dogs and Cats all iffy.

 

[citizen-erased]

Dons don’t have the depth to cover that many injuries. Happens again, will struggle

Lions are an unknown. They play good footy, but had a dream draw and run with injury. Do they get both again?

Dogs similarly are inconsistent, but had a cracking finish to 2019

If I had to pick 2, it would be from these 3.

All 3 just as likely to finish top 4 and make this prediction look stupid

 

[QuietB]

One thing is for certain, the Hawks are going into the 8.

Not so sure about that - lots off clubs finish hard like Hawthorn did and do not show up the following year.

Essendon will miss for sure.

Dogs maybe next most likely.

I think Geelong are the other one. The cliff is coming - I know we have been saying it for 10 years but it is coming.

 

[HairyO]

One thing is for certain, the Hawks are going into the 8.

Not for certain but likely.

Essendon drops out.

Geelong and Brisbane in the 5-8, West Coast up top 4. Not sure who moves up to top 4 with them.

Collingwood are a big unknown. GWS has so much depth of mids... but ruck stocks are terrible and the absence of help for Greene cost the at least being competitive

 

[andon]

Essendon and the Bulldogs, neither good enough to hold out Hawks and North.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Collingwood seem to have been up there for years

They finished 13th two years ago.

Or maybe ladder position is now "a matter of opinion" too.

 

[kranky al]

A lot of people are trying to predict form drops but how is the depth looking for these clubs? Richmond proved they bat deep but which of the other clubs handle having 2 of their best 3 players out for most of the year?

I reckon if Geelong lose Hawkins, if Brisbane lose Neale, if Collingwood lose Grundy, if West Coast lose Darling, if Bulldogs lose Bont and if Essendon lose Merrett they could struggle to adapt. GWS I don't know what to make of.

We didnt have darling for a decent stretch in 2018

and for half the grand final....

 

[queensberryrules]

Tiges look extremely shaky to me.

On SM-G955F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Shanghaistu]

....If we drop out twice does that create two openings?

 

[citizen-erased]

I think this is spot on the money. Wish it were otherwise but our fortunes are resting on key players that don’t want to be there and a coaching transition that gives both coaches a “get-out-of-jail-free” card for 2020....

tank time
get a high draft pick and ahead of the Swans in the PSD.

its the smart thing to do.

 

[HTPunter]

They made the finals without him playing for most of the year.
What if he happens to play 15 games.

I think they have a lot of improvement, mainly with injured guys set to return next year. Stewart, Daniher, Smith will be three crucial ins.

Stewart is one of those guys whose reputation grows with every game he misses.

How on earth is he a crucial in? What does he do better than Mitch Brown did? He'll be 26 at least the next time he plays senior AFL with 45 games and 55 goals to his name, doesn't take a lot of marks, not much of a back up ruckman etc.

Smith and Daniher, absolutely.

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

GWS, based on the history of teams to suffer big GF defeats
Essendon as I'm not sure their two big weaknesses have been addressed.

Port in 2008 and onwards
that would be the most obvious recent comparison

I don’t think the comparison to Port in 2008 (or even Adelaide in 2018) is a completely fair one.

Port didn’t play finals in 06, kind of came from the clouds u expectedly to make it in 07. They also had quite a young team in what was really the beginning of a rebuild. On average our grand final team were a year older and had roughly 250 games more experience than Port’s in 2007 - and that’s without Ward & Coniglio being factored in (not sure of Port’s outs for 07).

Adelaide had that disastrous pre-season camp that threw the team cohesiveness out the window.

Also, both of those are South Australian - and by that I mean, it’s a two team town where every step (and misstep) is scrutinised, analysed, over-analysed and the pressure on the players is immense. By contrast we are in an 11 team town where that kind of scrutiny and pressure from both the press and the public is way way less.

I’m not saying we’ll make it back to the big dance, but barring catastrophic injuries, we should still make the 8.

 

[gbatman]

At this stage there doesn't appear that there would be too many teams pushing up or pushing down but there are always uncertainties.

I think Essendon are vulnerable to a drop. Geelong will crash soon but probably not next year unless their older bodies start to fail them. I don't think it was a fluke with the Lions. Unless injuries get to them they should remain a good side. GWS should stay strong. Richmond should. Collingwood are a chance to slip with injuries to the wrong players but should be up there. Eagles should be a flag favorite. Doggies seem to be on the up.

As for the bottom... Saints have brought in some good players, lost some, if their recruiting has been good they could rise a bit. Hawthorn are a chance to jump into the 8 if things go well for them. Port probably not. Crows are going to drop right out. North, Freo, Sydney and Melbourne all look to be well in the middle of rebuild mode. Carlton should rise but enough to make finals is a big ask. Suns will end up with a list with a lot of good young talent but next year is a bit early to see them doing a great deal. Always some surprises but I don't think there will be too many.