Who to take with no.1?

[Clean Heels]

Interesting little clip of highlights from the Peel game on the weekend - in which NickNat features a couple of times, its in the drafts and trading thread under Big 3 form..

Gets me thinking NickNat might be making a late charge for pick 1, apparently he lifted Peel to a win in the last quarter, good sign.

I havent heard a lot of Watts lately - but he hasnt been in a best for a while..

Daniel Rich is starting to fire, they are going into finals in the WAFL, and Rich has been named in the best a couple of times of late..

Just like everyone was all aboard the Nick Nat train early on, we all jumped off - and on board the Watts mobile, will be interesting how things pan out, especially if the WA boys keep up their current form

 

[cannons]

Interesting little clip of highlights from the Peel game on the weekend - in which NickNat features a couple of times, its in the drafts and trading thread under Big 3 form..

Gets me thinking NickNat might be making a late charge for pick 1, apparently he lifted Peel to a win in the last quarter, good sign.

I havent heard a lot of Watts lately - but he hasnt been in a best for a while..

Daniel Rich is starting to fire, they are going into finals in the WAFL, and Rich has been named in the best a couple of times of late..

Just like everyone was all aboard the Nick Nat train early on, we all jumped off - and on board the Watts mobile, will be interesting how things pan out, especially if the WA boys keep up their current form

http://www.lmsc.com.au/media/docs/Swans_v_Peel_R23.wmv

This is the link to the highlights you were referring to. Naitanui takes two very impressive marks, sets up a goal and snaps one of his own.

Thanks to TheBigUnit for posting it

I don't think everyone should discount Naitanui, it seems like most are just rolling with the most popular option. Early on it was Nait, now its Watts. I must say I've been a little bit guilty of this at some points too, the hype machine got the better of me periodically.

Now that I'm back with a more objective and personal viewpoint, I'm still uncertain as to who we should take, but I must say I'm leaning towards one of the WA boys thus far.

 

[McLean_4_Captain]

Interesting little clip of highlights from the Peel game on the weekend - in which NickNat features a couple of times, its in the drafts and trading thread under Big 3 form..

Gets me thinking NickNat might be making a late charge for pick 1, apparently he lifted Peel to a win in the last quarter, good sign.

I you mean Swan districts. If he lifted Peel to the win then he's in a bit of trouble

You can tell from the video that he was pretty important in the win, they lost the lead in the last quarter and he handballed to another player through traffic in the goalsquare and then followed up with a goal of his own, they were both match defining goals. And he was named in the best

But watch the first minute and a half of the video closely and watch out for him.
- Very start of the video he gives away a free kick from the ruck contest which costs them a goal.
- He gets lead to the ball badly in defence, then his player spills the ball in front of him, he doesn't follow the ball and just stands behind his man who is laying on the ground, they get another goal.
- Peel pump the ball into the forward line, as it's going in you see Naita cruising past in the background. The ball goes exactly to where he just was and they end up kicking another goal where you can see him just standing in the goalsquare.

So yes he did some good stuff, but he did some poor things too. The good things he was able to do because of athletic ability, his leap & speed, but remember that this is WAFL not AFL, so his advantage will be reduced. The bad things he did were pretty evident that he's still learning the game and a footballing genius he ain't.

Whoever takes him he'll do some good things for almost straight away, but 90% of those will be purely based on his athletic ability. It will be like drafting a giant 12 y.o. who'll you will have to teach all the finer points of the game, so him being a good player will come down to how well he's taught and i don't want to take that risk.

 

[hawkstars]

I hope you guys pick up Naitanui. Reason being he is a marketers dream. You need to raise the profile of the club and I think this guy can do it for you. He is a freak. Natural talent in abundance and the footy brain will come. Good luck with your pick.

 

[Barrie Vagg]

Unfortunately we need Rich, Watts & Naitanui. We are the lowest in the league in inside 50's and if one creates a ladder based on midfield quality I think you'd get a fair approximation to the current ladder. Midfield depth and quality = good teams.This begs the question. A key forward unlikely to play next year but build a structurs around or a gun midfielder to help win clearances and find targets. There is an argument for both. My opinion would be that it is much harder to find a potential champion forward than a midfielder so it sways me towards Watts. Either way until we find some quick skilful midfielders we are going nowhere

 

[AFL is Number One]

Watts seems to be the one.

Media have reported that Dees are going to pick Watts. West C will pick Rich and Freo will get their man, Naitanui.

Seems to be a done deal according to the blokes in the know in the media.

In any case, all 3 are worthy by the sounds of it so we can't really go wrong.

I think that the hardest ( and probably most important ) part of the draft is getting it right from pick 30+ onwards..and this is where a good recruiting officer, who has done his homework comes into play. Remember that the Cats haven't had a Number One draft pick since the draft started. In fact their highest pick ever has been # 8. ( Corey) . Players like Enright,Wojinski, Ling, Hunt, were all over pick 30+ . Its all about continuing player developement once they are at the club and the club having some faith and sticking with them.

 

[Flashhh]

Just think, if only Ben Holland didn't kick 5 that night at the Dome against the Bulldogs in '07... we'd have Watts and Naitanui.

 

[Supermercado]

And if Rivers, Moloney, Neitz, Robertson etc.. didn't get injured we'd have won too many games this season to qualify. Whatever.

 

[Beats]

Watts seems to be the one.

Media have reported that Dees are going to pick Watts. West C will pick Rich and Freo will get their man, Naitanui.

Seems to be a done deal according to the blokes in the know in the media.

In any case, all 3 are worthy by the sounds of it so we can't really go wrong.

I think that the hardest ( and probably most important ) part of the draft is getting it right from pick 30+ onwards..and this is where a good recruiting officer, who has done his homework comes into play. Remember that the Cats haven't had a Number One draft pick since the draft started. In fact their highest pick ever has been # 8. ( Corey) . Players like Enright,Wojinski, Ling, Hunt, were all over pick 30+ . Its all about continuing player developement once they are at the club and the club having some faith and sticking with them.

It's true that that may be the hardest part of the draft, however it's not the part we've been struggling with, we have been terrible with our picks in the top 20, which should be the easiest part, this is probably the most important part, making sure that your 'blue-chip' picks are correct.

Joel Selwood was pick #7, so was Kane Tenace.
OT a little bit but they would've had higher picks in other years if it wasn't for so many teams claiming priority picks before round 1.

It's unfair to use the cats as a comparison as they have had so many f/s picks go on to be stars, to their 8 including Ablett Scarlett and Hawkins, our only one has been Chris Johnson.

However I agree, player development plays a big part, so does fitness and frankly bodan bobazic or however you spell his name has to go, he was terrible at Hawthorn and he's been shizenhouse here.

 

[richskee]

Word from the west is Naitanui is really pushing for the No.1 pick, polling votes in his last three games...

Doubt it would change much, seeing Warnock is pretty much a done deal.

 

[Future Star]

I strongly doubt that warnock is a done deal, im still very hopefull that we can land him especially for only the Pre-season pick would be very nice.

 

[richskee]

Great post, from Cyborg on the draft and trading board!

They drafted Cale Morton last year who may very well end up playing as an out and out running player rather than a "tall". Time will tell with him as he gets bigger and hardens up and whether he can play as a lead up forward or a running wing player. But if you had to take a guess on him he is more a midfielder who happens to be over 190cms rather than a tall who might be able to play midfield in the future.

They also drafted Grimes last year who is an inside midfielder with grunt, size and leadership. First year has been ruined with injury but he is a pretty good long term prospect given he can shake his injury concerns and get a full pre season.

They also have Ricky Petterd from the 2006 draft who showed quite a bit last year and also had his year ruined this year with injuries.

McLean had to cope with being tagged and carrying niggle injuries and then being out in the last few months. he has shown enough in his career to be considered a very good inside midfielder. A little 1 paced but is a prolific ball winner and very hard at it.

Nathan Jones also copped a tag this year and went backwards from his exceptional year in 2007. Tends to spray the ball a bit and not compose himself. Long kick but not overly accurate and has not got any real toe to break clear. A gut runner who works very hard and wins the ball though and will benefit from more support.

A fit McLean, Petterd and Grimes to add to Jones and Morton and its a midfield taking shape in the future. Its largely unproven and plenty of ? but its pretty promising for how young that group is. But its not Geelong or WC from 2 years ago. But if I had to look at the relative strengths of the list in the future I would not say the most pressing need is a midfielder. Davey as the icing to finish off others work as a linkman gives this group a bit of class. He missed the last 2 months as well and it showed with how slow Melb looked without him. I don’t rate Moloney much and don’t think he will be able to get fit enough or good enough as a ball user to be a starter in a good side. OP has ruined him and still makes the same errors he did in his first few years. Kicks long and blindly and does not hurt sides and turns it over. Slower than a slug these days as well.

Not when Neitz is gone, Robbo just about and there is a 3rd tall like Miller and thats about it. Newton is lazy and undisciplined and does not seem to want to do the hard yards. Paul Johnson is a decent ruck backup, okayish forward but against a good defender is not mobile enough. Around the ground in the ruck he looks okay. Thats about it for the tall forwards. You could include Bate in it I suppose. He is a ball carrier though and not really much of a marking player. Dunn has been tried as a tagger and shown very little as a forward in his time so far.

Down back its Frawley, Garland, Warnock, Rivers and Martin. Garland looks very promising. Frawley I am not so sure about but he is okay. Warnock looks solid. Martin is a monster and will take a while. Compared to the tall forwards it looks a lot more promising especially if rivers ever gets his body right again.

The ruck situation is even more dire than the forwards. White is gone. Jamar is awful. Paul Johnson is a pretty solid backup. Kicks the ball well and moves around and shows a bit of composure and class with the ball. But his actual ruck work is not great. The sort of player you would like for 30 to 40 minutes in the ruck and the same up forward if the matchup is right. So that leaves someone to play first ruck and then someone to be developing for the future as well.

Considering the time taken for talls and rucks to develop compared to midfielders. It might be prudent to remember this if its pretty close with a few names for the draft and Melbournes first pick. If they feel their is a standout, then take them. But if its pretty close then to me they need a tall who is athletic enough to play either end and projects as a CHF in the future. They also need a ruckman. Those are more pressing needs than a midfielder in my opinion.

Of course they could do with an elite young midfielder as well. If Rich is the best player then take him. If its not and its pretty close then I would go another way.

 

[richskee]

I am on the NN train, why? Because he's a freak and freaks don't come around often enough. We as a club have to stand up and take the risk not sit back and choose a 'SAFE' option because we are scared of failing. **** failing, we've failed for the last 40 years and I'm sick of it! We're last in everything, crowds, money, members. By picking NN it would dramatically influence all of those factors. Look how much this kid has shown in the few years he has been playing. Just imagine what he will be like 5 years from now! He's defiantly a player in development which is exactly the state of the Melbourne footy club. Lets face the facts were not going to be pushing for the finals for at least 4 to 5 years, which is the perfect amount of time to get NN up and going in his prime.

Watts should make a Good if not Great forward, but in the end he's just a forward. NN is breaking records, sorry not breaking, SMASHING records. His athleticism is phenomenal and his leap makes Bogut look like a rookie.

I just don't want to look back in 5 years and think to myself, WHAT IF?...

We have the number one pick, just don't screw it up....

 

[Beats]

I am on the NN train, why? Because he's a freak and freaks don't come around often enough. We as a club have to stand up and take the risk not sit back and choose a 'SAFE' option because we are scared of failing. **** failing, we've failed for the last 40 years and I'm sick of it! We're last in everything, crowds, money, members. By picking NN it would dramatically influence all of those factors. Look how much this kid has shown in the few years he has been playing. Just imagine what he will be like 5 years from now! He's defiantly a player in development which is exactly the state of the Melbourne footy club. Lets face the facts were not going to be pushing for the finals for at least 4 to 5 years, which is the perfect amount of time to get NN up and going in his prime.

Watts should make a Good if not Great forward, but in the end he's just a forward. NN is breaking records, sorry not breaking, SMASHING records. His athleticism is phenomenal and his leap makes Bogut look like a rookie.

I just don't want to look back in 5 years and think to myself, WHAT IF?...

We have the number one pick, just don't screw it up....

There-in lies the problem, to take a risk requires the option of failure, and if we screw up again that could be the end of us.
There was a kid called Smouha from Queensland last year, another athletic freak who was 198 cm or so, admittedly he wasn't as good as Naitanui, however no club took a punt on him despite him obliterating all the midfielders/ forwards in the testing because all the clubs thought that due to his recent introduction to the game(he had a soccer/athletics background) and the fact he had little to no footy smarts he would be a bust.
Naitanui might be different, however he could just be the same as Smouha, an athletic freak who won't be able to deliver because he doesn't have a football brain.

This pick is critical to where we are in five years, the high risk high reward strategy is not something we should be embarking on at the moment, I would rather look back and think 'what if...' than look back and think I remember when we were the Melbourne Demons.

 

[Clean Heels]

Daniel Rich looks the safest option for mine, a well built kid, has poise - sublime skills, exceptional ability to read the play..

He will be a quality, quality midfielder..

If anything, he is in the mould of Ablett, with the skills of Hodge and he moves like Kerr - so I cant see any problem in selecting him as our no 1 draft pick..

I have previously been on the NN bandwagon - early days, then I admittedly shifted to Watts as a lock, as im sure a lot of supporters have..

Now, I just want to sure up our midfield, Rich will do this - in abundance..

I say we get Rich and have a crack at a KP with our later picks, I dont mind Shoenmakers as a future prospect..

I dont think Midfielders like Daniel Rich will be available in the future, he oozzzes class - and will be a gun, no doubt..

 

[Beats]

Daniel Rich looks the safest option for mine, a well built kid, has poise - sublime skills, exceptional ability to read the play..

He will be a quality, quality midfielder..

If anything, he is in the mould of Ablett, with the skills of Hodge and he moves like Kerr - so I cant see any problem in selecting him as our no 1 draft pick..

I have previously been on the NN bandwagon - early days, then I admittedly shifted to Watts as a lock, as im sure a lot of supporters have..

Now, I just want to sure up our midfield, Rich will do this - in abundance..

I say we get Rich and have a crack at a KP with our later picks, I dont mind Shoenmakers as a future prospect..

I dont think Midfielders like Daniel Rich will be available in the future, he oozzzes class - and will be a gun, no doubt..

Shoenmakers probably won't make it as a KP, I see him developing into a Matthew Bate type of player, roams around the arc and provides a good 3rd option but is unable to hold down a proper good KPP.

Daniel Rich imo is the best kick in this draft by a mile, and others are claiming he's the best kick to come into the system in 5 years. He would compliment our team greatly, but we don't need him like we need Watts and he doesn't give as much potential/ hype as Naitanui.

As to there being no problem with selecting him, sure there's no problem with the way he moves and plays, but after watching him during the champs and listening to other peoples reports, he has the attitude of Juice.
However if you think about it properly, if this is the way he plays when he's being lazy and laconic, imagine how he would go if he actually ran both ways.

 

[ndot]

i'm almost glad WC have 2nd pick in this draft and not 1st

 

[Theseventhhamster]

If Naitanui can take an overhead mark I'd punt on him and develop him as a marking forward. At his height, with long arms and a massive leap he'd be unstoppable. But buggered if I know if he has that ability. If not let's hope we get a decent weights room for that skinny arse Watts kid.

 

[Clean Heels]

Shoenmakers probably won't make it as a KP, I see him developing into a Matthew Bate type of player, roams around the arc and provides a good 3rd option but is unable to hold down a proper good KPP.

Disagree, I think Shoenmakers ticks a lot of boxes to make it as a KP, good strong set of hands, good on the lead - and with the pace of the game and where its heading, that is a big plus..

Im still not against getting Watts, its just that Rich you know is going to be a star, whereas with Watts - there is still the question mark of whether he is just a great junior player..

Also, McKernan, Vickery, Johnson, Cornielius amongst other talls, we could afford to take Rich and still gain a very good KP prospect.

I reckon its important we look at all avenues anyway..

Im actually more concerned as to who we pick up in 17/19 - than I am with our no 1 pick...

 

[Major Colvin]

Nothing can be more certain than whoever we pick up will NOT be a star. ...West Coast's will be, and Freo's won't be.

 

[Bartram_Class]

If Naitanui can take an overhead mark I'd punt on him and develop him as a marking forward. At his height, with long arms and a massive leap he'd be unstoppable. But buggered if I know if he has that ability. If not let's hope we get a decent weights room for that skinny arse Watts kid.

Go watch that video going around on the Drafts and Trading board.

Marking is one thing that Naitanui has down to a T. His vertical leap is incredible.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Go watch that video going around on the Drafts and Trading board.

Marking is one thing that Naitanui has down to a T. His vertical leap is incredible.

In that case as long as he can kick he's my pick.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

R 23 – 7 kicks; 2 marks; 1 goal; 11 hit outs
R 22 – 3 kicks; 2 marks; 1 goal; 15 hit outs
R 21 – 7 kicks; 1 mark; 1 goal; 15 hit outs
R 20 – 6 kicks; 1 mark; 1 goal; 16 hit outs
R 19 – 4 kicks; 3 marks; 18 hit outs

Maybe not less than 2 marks a game. Damn I'm all over the shop.

 

[Beats]

R 23 – 7 kicks; 2 marks; 1 goal; 11 hit outs
R 22 – 3 kicks; 2 marks; 1 goal; 15 hit outs
R 21 – 7 kicks; 1 mark; 1 goal; 15 hit outs
R 20 – 6 kicks; 1 mark; 1 goal; 16 hit outs
R 19 – 4 kicks; 3 marks; 18 hit outs

Maybe not less than 2 marks a game. Damn I'm all over the shop.

Naitanui doesn't have a footy brain though, when he doesn't have possesion he doesn't know where to run to get the ball next etc.
He's pretty much lost out there when he's not around a contest.
Once he gets taught what to do he'll be a good player, probably a great one.
But the problem is can you teach something which to most people is instinctive?
Added to that he'll have to learn how to kick properly, his kicking isn't as bad as people make it out to be, but I am yet to see an effective kick of his go over 30 metres.

 

[Beats]

Disagree, I think Shoenmakers ticks a lot of boxes to make it as a KP, good strong set of hands, good on the lead - and with the pace of the game and where its heading, that is a big plus..

Im still not against getting Watts, its just that Rich you know is going to be a star, whereas with Watts - there is still the question mark of whether he is just a great junior player..

Also, McKernan, Vickery, Johnson, Cornielius amongst other talls, we could afford to take Rich and still gain a very good KP prospect.

I reckon its important we look at all avenues anyway..

Im actually more concerned as to who we pick up in 17/19 - than I am with our no 1 pick...

Imo Shoenmakers plays the same type of game as Matthew Bate, he's a very very good 3rd tall but will be unable to hold down a genuine key position spot.
Matthew Bate has good hands and is good on the lead, yet he can't hold down our chf spot despite being a good size as well, it's just not in his game.

Added to that in the championships which is where you've probably seen him he was playing as the third tall, both Paul Cahill and Lewis Johnston were prefered at the key position posts, either of those would be a better option long term for a KPP.

As you said I'm actually more concerned with who pick up at 17/19, and to a lesser extent 35.

I think the best scenario is one where jack watts nominates but we don't pick him, allowing us to take hopefully something like rich, blease, cornelius and Cahill.
*here's hoping*