Prediction Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn

[JustaBattler]

I think a lot of us Hawthorn supporters know there will be changes to our game plan this year, which could potentially set us back but could also be very beneficial in the long term.

Some natural improvement from our younger players is likely, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the cohesiveness of the team will improve.

The main issue I see with Carlton is their reductive and simplistic way of looking at their trajectory.

They essentially reduce everything to, “Well, we were injured last year, we’ve added one or two pieces, and now we’ll be much better and win the premiership,” with no real discussion about how they’ll address their game plan, which was a massive Achilles heel last year.

They’re in for a rude awakening.

I can't think of a Carlton poster who has claimed that the Club "will win a premiership this year" every Club has exploitable weaknesses and stengths that need to be accounted for.

Once hyoeprbole is introduced into a discussion - it mostly goes one way...

As for improvement- I dont think carlton needs to improve from its best to beat the best - but it certainly needs to improve from its worst to even be competitive against even average opposition.

 

[Kenny Hunter09]

Are you new to AFL football?

It's obviously contextual, I didn't think I NEEDED to spell everything out on a football forum.

One of you Carlton supporters understood and actually gave a good reply a couple of days ago.

It's obvious the statement suggests Carlton is one of the poorest teams and moving the ball quick out of D50. Yes, all teams zone we don't need to repeat this. I'm guessing you're just trolling as you can't be this football illiterate on a football forum.

You made a sweeping statement based on an assumption - no real fact or data to back it up.
I've noticed you make a lot of these types of statements in your posts. Was I trolling...maybe a little...but moreso me looking to extract more information from you to back your position, so you can prove that you are the footy analysis heavyweight you think you are.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Are you basing this purely on eye-test? Here are some statistics from Season 2024 that debunk your statement.

Scores from turnover:

• 4th - Carlton - 52.0
• 8th - Hawthorn - 49.0

Scores from D50:

• 9th - Hawthorn - 33.6
• 10th - Carlton - 33.5

Source:

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

And of course... 0 acknowledgement of this information.

Hardly surprising.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Should be pretty tight between the 2 but the pre seasons could not be more different.

Hawthorn have a tip top list fit and ready aside from Dear and Lewis, with the latter ahead of schedule. They lost nobody last off season and filled 2 glaring holes with elite players

Carlton have lost Newman, Curnow has had surgery and Walsh and Cerra are iffy again. Off field is a bit of a dogs breakfast too. They also lost Kennedy and Owies, the latter from a position in which they are really deficient. They have added a top 3 pick (which I think was goo trading) but who knows how much they can really afford to throw him into the guts from day 1.

What really adds some spice is Hawthorn having Carltons first 2 picks.

IF they finish above Carlton, they have effectively traded pick 14 last year and their 3rd round pick this year; for Barrass, a 1st round upgrade this year, a 2nd round upgrade this year and West Coasts 4th round pick (which with any luck may only be a few spots behind their traded 3rd round pick)....

 

[carlton_99]

Carlton have lost Newman, Curnow has had surgery and Walsh and Cerra are iffy again

What happened to Cerra?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

What happened to Cerra?

Didn't realize we were also deficient in players like Kennedy

Walsh also very iffy missing a few weeks with a regulation hamstring.

 

[carlton_99]

Didn't realize we were also deficient in players like Kennedy

Walsh also very iffy missing a few weeks with a regulation hamstring.

I think they were referring to us being deficient of small forwards because of Owies.

The gap between Owies' reputation pre- and post-trade from non-Carlton supporters is extraordinary.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I think they were referring to us being deficient of small forwards because of Owies.

The gap between Owies' reputation pre- and post-trade from non-Carlton supporters is extraordinary.

Was a renowned liability for years a years and the second he got traded he became the second coming of Eddie Betts.

Hilarious stuff

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Saad was AA 2 seasons ago doesn't get tagged anymore
Cerra has a hamstring every second week
Hewett can't make the distance on a set shot from 40
Yes Acres effort is fine his output is on and off
"outside of 3 knees' really
What has Williams done for your club
Being a good role player isn't an issue we are talking higher end talent
He missed 5 games last year has never been properly fit
Fogarty is a genuine c grader at best naming his is laughable

Watson is already better than Fogarty if your comparing positions absolutely laughable if he's claiming he's a good player. He's a role player.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Walsh is a player who gets by on insane s work rate and footy smarts. He is, however, a midfielder and a midfielder only.

Will Day can play in every third on the ground, and is the most naturally gifted footballer of the 4 we're discussing.

I may be underrating Cripps somewhat, because he has the ability to push forward and be a marking threat.
However, despite not possessing the back catalogue of pure dominant performances like Patty, Newcombe is one of the more complete mids in the competition and is only just entering his prime years.
He can kick, mark overhead, tackle and accumulate.
The two also average basically the same amount of goals per game over their careers.
We aren't too far off Nuke kicking 20+ goals in a season and everybody realising he's capable as a forward as well.

He was plucked from Box Hill and the mid season draft, you would be kidding yourself if you thought we have seen half his potential. Can be 1 of the elite stars of the comp if he gets to that potential. Already very good.

 

[carlton_99]

Watson is already better than Fogarty if your comparing positions absolutely laughable if he's claiming he's a good player. He's a role player.

Can role players not be good players?

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

One of my favourite non-Carlton players. Going to be a star - Hawks very lucky to have him.

Just needs to stay on the park, has been very unlucky with injuries at the wrong time. Pre season last year than 2 weeks before a potential finals series. His importance should not be understated, already a young leader but he's also the point of difference for our midfield. Think some people need to watch him play more to understand his talent and capabilities.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Can role players not be good players?

If your putting these players in your group of good players where does that put Ginnivan, Dylan Moore, McDonald, Watson etc who have clearly shown more in their careers and are probably better players to this point. Don't get me wrong Fogarty is ok but if your putting up an argument Carlton has a better list because you have Lachie Fogarty your list isn't that great. Hollands is a good player no disputing there

 

[carlton_99]

If your putting these players in your group of good players where does that put Ginnivan, Dylan Moore, McDonald, Watson etc who have clearly shown more in their careers and are probably better players to this point. Don't get me wrong Fogarty is ok but if your putting up an argument Carlton has a better list because you have Lachie Fogarty your list isn't that great. Hollands is a good player no disputing there

Who on here has said Carlton has a better list than Hawthorn because they have Lachie Fogarty?

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Walsh's first 8 games or so of the season were tremendous.

Impact wise he fell off after that. So I stand by my statement. Newcombe dominated the final stretch including two knockout finals.

Newk struggled early without his mate Day there beside him. He turned things around once he was back on board and completely bossed quite a number of matches. His 3rd qtr in the QF should go down as 1 of the more recent displays of dominance you would likely see. Was on another level and this was against a quality midfield unit.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

The end result was a 28 point loss, not 128. Top 8 sides make the top 8. If Freo (or you for that matter) were good enough, you would've been there instead.

Well they're clearly not if they failed when it was most important - especially considering how it was done.

We had 1 goal halfway through the 2nd QTR against Port so I agree. Being in a poor position during a final doesn't mean you don't deserve to be there.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Just as I'm sure they'd say Day goes in hard at the contest

He most certainly does, to the detriment of his body as it's not able to sustain hard hits regularly ATM. He's put on size this pre season because he needs to with the way he plays. He always sets the tone you need to watch him a bit more.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

He most certainly does, to the detriment of his body as it's not able to sustain hard hits regularly ATM. He's put on size this pre season because he needs to with the way he plays. He always sets the tone you need to watch him a bit more.

Read what you replied to again. I said none of Cerra, Walsh or Day are soft. While they're not behemoths like Cripps, they all crack in as hard as anyone despite being generally known as more outside type mids as that's where they excel the most.

Butters probably the best example of this in the comp.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

This is spot on.

People look at their top handful of players and conclude 'Carlton have an elite list'.

They do comparisons like the post you responded to, and people state ' I have Carlton's top 5 well ahead'.

But Carlton have had the best half dozen players of any team in the league for the past 3 to 4 years, and every year they've fallen well short of premiership contention.

12 wins
13 wins
13 wins

I read earlier someone commenting on Carlton's forward line being the best in the league....

Curnow
McKay
Then who?

The contenders bat 6 to 8 deep in their forward line. I don't even know who Carlton's third best forward is. I do know their third best forward would be outside of the top 6 of any team that wants to genuinely contend for the premiership.

Including mine.

Which of Carlton's forwards (outside of their top 2) are better than:
Mihocek
McStay
Elliott
Hill
De Goey (who we expect to play predominantly forward in 2025)
Schultz
McCreery

Yes and I stand by that I think they will. The top end of the Hawks and the lack of depth beyond their best 22 are my concerns.

The Blues flaws I am all too familiar with, but I think our floor is higher than the Hawks.

See what happens in 2025 though, Hawks being arrogant flogs are good for the drama and entertainment regardless of whether they go well or not.

We will probably have Josh Ward as part of that depth this year as an example. Our depth is actually now a strength because it's very even across the board. Guys like McGuiness and Morrison who both played in the finals are probably not going to be part of the best 22. Even CJ could find himself at BH at times such is the competition for spots. Somebody who was a regular in the backline is now depth because of Battle and Barrass now down there.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Read what you replied to again. I said none of Cerra, Walsh or Day are soft. While they're not behemoths like Cripps, they all crack in as hard as anyone despite being generally known as more outside type mids as that's where they excel the most.

Butters probably the best example of this in the comp.

Day is inside/outside. If anyone thinks he's purely Outside they don't watch us at all. Him and Newcombe are the guys you will see bursting from a stoppage most regularly moving forward. Day reminds me of James Hird the player. Big call but they both have or had similar attributes.

 

[carlton_99]

Day is inside/outside. If anyone thinks he's purely Outside they don't watch us at all. Him and Newcombe are the guys you will see bursting from a stoppage most regularly moving forward. Day reminds me of James Hird the player. Big call but they both have or had similar attributes.

Mate you seem to be making up stuff to get upset about. No one has called Day purely an outside player. No one has said Carlton have a better list than Hawthorn because of Fogarty.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Newk struggled early without his mate Day there beside him. He turned things around once he was back on board and completely bossed quite a number of matches. His 3rd qtr in the QF should go down as 1 of the more recent displays of dominance you would likely see. Was on another level and this was against a quality midfield unit.

Was the most Hodge-like quarter a Hawks player has played since the great man retired.

Not a Tom Mitchell style 'death by a thousand cuts' dominance. It was pure, physical football in a cut-throat game.

The goal in the second quarter from the top-down is already one of my favourite Hawthorn goals of all time.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Mate you seem to be making up stuff to get upset about. No one has called Day purely an outside player. No one has said Carlton have a better list than Hawthorn because of Fogarty.

Fogarty was mentioned as part of a group that you consider a good player by a poster. Not saying it's a unanimous opinion and I merely responded to it saying I disagreed. Plenty of observers have said Day is an outside player so either you don't watch or listen outside your own team or your trying to bait.

 

[carlton_99]

Fogarty was mentioned as part of a group that you consider a good player by a poster. Not saying it's a unanimous opinion and I merely responded to it saying I disagreed. Plenty of observers have said Day is an outside player so either you don't watch or listen outside your own team or your trying to bait.

You said "if your putting up an argument Carlton has a better list because you have Lachie Fogarty your list isn't that great", even though not one person has said Carlton has a better list because of Lachie Fogarty. So not sure why you are bringing up an argument nobody is making. Mind you Lachie Fogarty is one of the best pressure forwards and goal assist players in the competition. Pretty important player to the Carlton forward line.

And on your second point we are talking about this thread - who has called Day "purely" an outside player? The poster you replied to was literally bringing up Day as a comparison to Walsh/Cerra who can also do both the outside/inside stuff. I have praised Day multiple times in this thread so not sure why you would think I don't watch non-Carlton games or am trying to bait you. Odd strategy to bait someone by complimenting a player from the team they support.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Should be pretty tight between the 2 but the pre seasons could not be more different.

Hawthorn have a tip top list fit and ready aside from Dear and Lewis

Please don’t tempt the footy gods with this.

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