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AFLW 2024 - Round 7 - Pride Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Who will be better in 2025 - Geelong or Hawthorn?
- Thread starter Black Haze
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The only fallacy I can see here is the one you're trying to create, and it literally took a graph for you to come to grips with the idea.
How many of your most important players are over the age of 30?
Your most important players are fairly significant to a conversation like this.
As has been pointed out several times earlier in this thread.
SSSSSS
Brownlow Medallist
- Apr 18, 2011
- 21,982
- 50,341
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
- Other Teams
- Six decades of domination
4 players over 30. Average games of 135.9, average age of 26.7
0 players over 30. Average experience of 112 games, average age of 25.1
While the B&F votes don't really reflect it, the oldest players on the Geelong list above are their most important too.
Take Danger, Cameron and Stewart out of that side and it hurts them more than any other three names would in combination.
I can see arguments coming that would put Holmes in that group over Danger. It's still an argument though.
- Jun 19, 2006
- 11,389
- 22,799
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- Geelong
There's only 3 players over 30 in Geelong's B&F top 10 not 4. The 4th oldest is Zach Guthrie who turned 26 in the second half of the season.
Replacing Danger, Cameron and Stewart over the next few years feels very manageable when our prelim team had to replace Selwood, Hawkins, Guthrie, Smith, De Koning, Rohan, Tuohy, O'Connor, Parfitt and Duncan (sub) from the 2022 premiership team. And if we'd taken our chances or our best player hadn't been subbed off injured we wouldn't be talking about that team as narrow prelim final losers either.
SSSSSS
Brownlow Medallist
- Apr 18, 2011
- 21,982
- 50,341
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
- Other Teams
- Six decades of domination
You're right. Think I accidentally read it as Cam Guthrie and not Zac.
2021but what numbers are what buddy?
Also Taberner is delisted for a reason
Yeah, he got delisted because he got the same A grade numbers as Mitch "Tabby" Lewis
Lulz.
Lulz indeed.
The Freo player you're referencing kicked 4 total goals in his 6 career games against your team.
Lewis has kicked 12 in the same number of games against you, including the one where he was KO'd and did his knee, coming back from LTI.
That's a higher career average against Geelong than Hawkins has against us.
You've got a very short, fragile memory.
Not to mention an abject grasp on AFL key forwards that don't wear the hoops. Lewis kicked 37 in 2021, and 36 in 2022. Both seasons he played 15 games because of injury.
His career has been defined by his high level ability, and serious injury.
So again, Lulz at your incredible comparison and insight.
C grade Tabby confirmed.
F grade intellect confirmed.
- May 5, 2016
- 45,846
- 51,345
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Most teams in or around premiership contention has old players who are important who if you remove them will leave the team struggling to remain as competitive. One of Brisbane’s most important players all season was 34 and their best player is 31. It’s rare for the opposite to be true. It’s also obvious for anyone who watched us that beyond Cameron, Dangerfield and Stewart that virtually all our other important players are young or middle aged.
Top tier is still the oldies and then ykur younger guys. But you ideally have the best players all at around 26-30. Our threepeat side was that kind of profile. It’s why we lost so many at around the same time. Rough and Cyril excluded.
- May 5, 2016
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Top tier? Our best and fairest winner just turned 22 the week before the finals started and was the best player on the ground for the first half of the prelim. The other guys are in the top tier as well but Max Holmes is consistently our best. Cameron is the most likely player we have to win us a game.
Wojcinski
Brownlow Medallist
Geelong's 3 most impactful players are Holmes, Stengle and Cameron
Dangerfield still has his moments but over the past 3 years he's been on the sidelines more often than not and we've still been winning games. Stewart was easily our best but this past year has definitely dropped off. Again still impactful but we aren't reliant on him so much anymore.
The only player in our top 10 that we don't have a replacement for is Cameron.
Again, 3 most important are not young players.
- May 5, 2016
- 45,846
- 51,345
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Ok.
I’ll be sure to check for adjusted scores once the ball gets told the age of the person who kicked it.
- Jun 19, 2006
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- 22,799
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- Geelong
You're not watching.
Holmes is clearly more important than Danger or Stewart. Toss up with Cameron.
Holmes misses the second half against Brisbane and we fall apart. Stewart misses the QF against Port and we win by 14 goals.
I think Danger your most important mid still. Even at 70-80 percent he’s a first possession center square talent.
Stewart was tagged a lot this year, that’s also responsible for his lower output.
Cameron is the one who performed best this year.
But any one of those three, or all of them decline and leave at once and it’s a Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Roughead, Cyril type scenario.
You can replace these guys, but not with anyone who bas the same level of talent.
I think you know that for the most part nobody plays midfield in isolation, you need a group.
You need role players to let a star shine. Who can play the Danger role wxactly?
Watch the hole he leaves when he drops off another 10/20 percent.
Ditto Stewart and Cameron.
There’s no shame in facing up to reality, it happens to all teams. The best you have eventually retire too.
It’s why the core of your flag winning teams retiring made it hard to compete deep into September for a decade or so.
- May 5, 2016
- 45,846
- 51,345
- AFL Club
- Geelong
You literally just repeated ‘your three most important players are all your old players’ in response to the comment about Max Holmes who is a) 22, b) our best and fairest winner and c) was the best player across both teams during the preliminary final before he got hurt.
Guthrie has more or less filled Stewart’s original role in the back 50. He’s not as good a kick as Stewart but he’s a great organiser and very composed and that is manifested by his runner up finish in our B and F as well.
My response might have sounded dumb but in reality what does it matter: aside from increasing a likelihood of a soft tissue injury in the here and now, literally what does the age of our most important players matter? Do you gain or lose points for it? We aren’t trying to win a comp in ten years we are trying to win one every year.
Even if those guys are of paramount importance, the half dozen right behind them are 25 or younger pretty much so what’s the difference. They all form part of a working machine
- Jun 19, 2006
- 11,389
- 22,799
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Can you pass this on to someone at Geelong please?
I'm worried they might not know older players need to eventually be replaced. It's best they're aware of this before it happens.
- Feb 12, 2017
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Stewart didn't even play when we spanked Port in the first final, funnily enough the same team who the very next week put Hokball in the bin courtesy of a Sir Kenneth airplane despite fielding a younger side than the baby Hoks.
After age 33 decline is not exactly a concept that's up for grabs in an argument.
The young players you mention might fill part of those shoes. Nobody is arguing against that.
But right now, the most important players in your side are declining, and you're telling me you're just going to manage with other guys.
It's not how it works.
It's not exactly a secret, is it?
For some folks on here, the secret seems to be accepting that you might be replacing them at some stage with people who aren't quite as good.
It's certainly seems controversial almost that anyone might suggest it.
Again I'm going to say look at the Geelong sides who won flags 2007-11. Once the core of that group was gone, it was ten more years plus till you won another.
The reason is, you can't just replace high end talent with talent and expect the outcome to be the same.
The core of the 22 flag (Hawkins, Selwood, Danger, Cameron, Stewart and Smith) are also on the way out, or have left. Why is it so hard to accept that this actually means something I wonder?
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