Who will North, Essendon and Adelaide replace in the top 8 in 2014

[Tiger71]

Don't think there as many "certainties" for the finals as people think

Certain Finalists:
Hawks, Swans, Dockers

Likely Finalists:
Cats, Tigers

Could go either way:
North, Blues, Port, Crows, Pies, Suns, Bombers

Unlikely Finalists:
Eagles, Bulldogs

Certain NON-Finalists:
Demons, Giants, Lions, Saints,

Probably the most unbiased and accurate assessment of the 2014 season to date. Well done sir.

 

[Ambrosia]

I reckon Houli does this as well, but maybe he is instructed to use his teams mates more? Cant hang him for that I imo.

I've seen him run and carry in space but very rarely does he take on opponent and break the lines from half back imo.

 

[blackshadow]

North and Essendon have very similar formlines, possibly the two most similar in the comp, and I think Essendon fans taking pot shots at North fans and vice versa just because they don't like each other is lame and overrated.

There is absolutely nothing lame or overrated at hating Essendon and taking pot shots at their delusional supporters thank you very much


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[Spanish_Fly]

why did carlton beat us twice and once in a final at that.are you seriously telling me there a substantial difference between the two teams. sheesh precious rfc supporters with not a skerrick of common sense.

you ask why. i ask what are you on. where is carltons representation so surperior.
i tell you what, instead of bitching and crying like a baby because not enough richmond players are represented, why dont you put up a combined team so we can all see what your bitching about.

Getting a bit precious aren't we, 4 games is a lot more over the season, Richmond were clearly the better team over the season but you seem to think we are behind Carlton.

All I was doing was asking you to justify your opinion which is not backed up by facts, and all you did was launch into a massive sook about it.

 

[Hans_Moleman]

Don't think there as many "certainties" for the finals as people think

Certain Finalists:
Hawks, Swans, Dockers

Likely Finalists:
Cats, Tigers

Could go either way:
North, Blues, Port, Crows, Pies, Suns, Bombers

Unlikely Finalists:
Eagles, Bulldogs

Certain NON-Finalists:
Demons, Giants, Lions, Saints,

IMO

Certain Finalists:
Hawthorn, Sydney, Fremantle

Likely Finalists:
Collingwood, Geelong, Essendon, North

Could go either way:
Adelaide, Richmond, Carlton, West Coast

Unlikely Finalists:
GC, Bulldogs, Brisbane

Certain Non-Finalists:
Melbourne, GWS, Saints

 

[Jumbo]

IMO

Certain Finalists:
Hawthorn, Sydney, Fremantle

Likely Finalists:
Collingwood, Geelong, Essendon, North

Could go either way:
Adelaide, Richmond, Carlton, West Coast

Unlikely Finalists:
GC, Bulldogs, Brisbane

Certain Non-Finalists:
Melbourne, GWS, Saints

Does that make Port premiers?

 

[BM123]

Statistics would refute the above bolded comment in 2013 in regards to running defenders.

Houli 79%KE
Newman 75%KE
Vlastuin 74%KE
Petterd 73%KE


Compared to:
Simpson 76%KE
Walker 74%KE
Tuohy 70%KE
Scotland69%KE

Back to the OP though, I would suggest North would replace Port in the top 8 with the toughness of their respective draws the main reason.

We are a long kicking team though which reduces KE since we don't rack up the useless chips. I remember Richmond's game against Essendon in the first half of the season where their defenders were just chipping it around for ages due to their inability to break Essendon's press. KE must have been perfect but they were actually losing ground.

 

[Hans_Moleman]

Does that make Port premiers?

SANFL Premiers after they're kicked out of the comp.

Port will be in the 'could go either way' bracket (can't edit the earlier post now because of some 10 min time limit).

 

[camiam]

No one, the only team likely is North. Why do you think those 3 teams will make the eight, i dont get these stupid threads!

 

[the big lebowski]

No one, the only team likely is North. Why do you think those 3 teams will make the eight, i dont get these stupid threads!

I think the arguments can be summarized as -

1) Teams from 1-6 should have tougher draws than those below them (likely to hurt Carlton and Port most of all)

2) North only just got pipped in close losses to many good teams last year, had the second hardest draw in the comp (according to champion data), and have recruited quality players without losing anyone of note.

3) Essendon did infact win more than enough games to qualify for the 8 last year. So there is little reason to think they won't do the same again.

4) Adelaide spent the year adjusting to the loss of one of the best KPF in the game, on top of adjusting to the loss of Tippet. With Walker back, and the inclusion of the JPod and Betts, they should be around the mark again.

 

[Thedeftouch]

The following Collingwood players have played for the team from 2010 - 2014:

• Dane Swan
• Scott Pendlebury
• Dayne Beams
• Travis Cloke
• Jarryd Blair
• Harry O'Brien
• Steele Sidebottom
• Nick Maxwell
• Alan Toovey
• Luke Ball
• Ben Reid
• Brent Macaffer (even though missed a season in the middle)

It's a solid core of 12 for sure, including some premium talent at the top end. But here are the players that they are missing from their previous campaigns (limited to a top 10 list for each year):

2010
Alan Didak
Dale Thomas
Heath Shaw
Ben Johnson
Darren Jolly
Sharrod Wellingham
Tarkyn Lockyer
Chris Dawes
Leon Davis
Leigh Brown

2011
Dale Thomas
Leon Davis
Heath Shaw
Darren Jolly
Ben Johnson
Chris Dawes
Andrew Krakouer
Sharrod Wellingham
Cameron Wood
Alan Didak

2012
Heath Shaw
Darren Jolly
Dale Thomas
Cameron Wood
Sharrod Wellingham
Alex Fasolo
Martin Clarke
Tyson Goldsack
Chris Dawes
Ben Johnson


And finally, the best from the 2014 crop of non-common players:

2014
Ben Hudson
Paul Seedsman
Josh Thomas
Marley Williams
Brodie Grundy
Jamie Elliott
Quinten Lynch
Lachlan Keeffe
Taylor Adams
Jesse White


IMO the decline will continue for Collingwood.

 

[Tiger71]

We are a long kicking team though which reduces KE since we don't rack up the useless chips. I remember Richmond's game against Essendon in the first half of the season where their defenders were just chipping it around for ages due to their inability to break Essendon's press. KE must have been perfect but they were actually losing ground.

Ignore that Essendon and North game of last year. Dead set our worst performance since 2011.

 

[blackshadow]

The following Collingwood players have played for the team from 2010 - 2014:

• Dane Swan
• Scott Pendlebury
• Dayne Beams
• Travis Cloke
• Jarryd Blair
• Harry O'Brien
• Steele Sidebottom
• Nick Maxwell
• Alan Toovey
• Luke Ball
• Ben Reid
• Brent Macaffer (even though missed a season in the middle)

It's a solid core of 12 for sure, including some premium talent at the top end. But here are the players that they are missing from their previous campaigns (limited to a top 10 list for each year):

2010
Alan Didak
Dale Thomas
Heath Shaw
Ben Johnson
Darren Jolly
Sharrod Wellingham
Tarkyn Lockyer
Chris Dawes
Leon Davis
Leigh Brown

2011
Dale Thomas
Leon Davis
Heath Shaw
Darren Jolly
Ben Johnson
Chris Dawes
Andrew Krakouer
Sharrod Wellingham
Cameron Wood
Alan Didak

2012
Heath Shaw
Darren Jolly
Dale Thomas
Cameron Wood
Sharrod Wellingham
Alex Fasolo
Martin Clarke
Tyson Goldsack
Chris Dawes
Ben Johnson


And finally, the best from the 2014 crop of non-common players:

2014
Ben Hudson
Paul Seedsman
Josh Thomas
Marley Williams
Brodie Grundy
Jamie Elliott
Quinten Lynch
Lachlan Keeffe
Taylor Adams
Jesse White


IMO the decline will continue for Collingwood.

You're right! It's all downhill after Leigh "The Anvil" Brown's departure.

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[The Bomb]

Ignore that Essendon and North game of last year. Dead set our worst performance since 2011.

must be proud losing to Gold Coast twice in that time, hell you guys even lost to Port when they were really really bad.

 

[nameless]

must be proud losing to Gold Coast twice in that time, hell you guys even lost to Port when they were really really bad.

Hands up if the Demons have beaten you in the last 2 years?

 

[Chopperdave]

We are a long kicking team though which reduces KE since we don't rack up the useless chips. I remember Richmond's game against Essendon in the first half of the season where their defenders were just chipping it around for ages due to their inability to break Essendon's press. KE must have been perfect but they were actually losing ground.

Not correct at all. A long kick to a 50/50 contest or better actually counts as an effective kick. Whereas a short kick has to go to a teammate uncontested. Plus things like a 50m switch of play counts as a long effective kick which yes can take a lot of skill to open up the team but can also just be a simple kick across the park...

I don't think there will ever truly be an effective way to measure kicking efficiency as unlike any other game in the world there are just far too many variables associated with a football kick.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Don't think there as many "certainties" for the finals as people think

Certain Finalists:
Hawks, Swans, Dockers

Likely Finalists:
Cats, Tigers

Could go either way:
North, Blues, Port, Crows, Pies, Suns, Bombers

Unlikely Finalists:
Eagles, Bulldogs

Certain NON-Finalists:
Demons, Giants, Lions, Saints,

Put the Tigers in the "Could go either way" category & I reckon you are about spot on.

 

[BM123]

Not correct at all. A long kick to a 50/50 contest or better actually counts as an effective kick. Whereas a short kick has to go to a teammate uncontested. Plus things like a 50m switch of play counts as a long effective kick which yes can take a lot of skill to open up the team but can also just be a simple kick across the park...

I don't think there will ever truly be an effective way to measure kicking efficiency as unlike any other game in the world there are just far too many variables associated with a football kick.

I actually was talking about us taking more risks like Tuohy going for goal from behind 50 then kicking to contests. I agree with you on how stats often don't paint the full picture.

 

[BM123]

Hands up if the Demons have beaten you in the last 2 years?

Or hands up if you have only played till June for the last three years.

 

[theflea]

I've seen him run and carry in space but very rarely does he take on opponent and break the lines from half back imo.

We tend to do this more by foot and ball movement than raw running speed so while I agree to a certain extent, it may be a team rule more so than he doesn't 'want' to do it.

 

[Engimal]

Don't think there as many "certainties" for the finals as people think

Certain Finalists:
Hawks, Swans, Dockers

Likely Finalists:
Cats, Tigers

Could go either way:
North, Blues, Port, Crows, Pies, Suns, Bombers

Unlikely Finalists:
Eagles, Bulldogs

Certain NON-Finalists:
Demons, Giants, Lions, Saints,

I'd switch the Tigers and Port but other than that, It's pretty much the same for me.

 

[santa claws]

hmm a like for like match up

jamison v rance. give me jamison thanks.
henderson v chaplin give me henderson. yes i think henderson should play in defense alas they need him forward. if you throw him forward hes better than vickery by a country mile.
waite - well hes better than any other tall forward we have outside of jack.
kruezer - well hampson has his role for us give me kruezer anyday. id take kruezer over vickery as well.
watson well hes a kid i think who has deficiencies. but hes just 21 and if at richmond head in the sand supporters like you would be lauding him.

what i dont get is its the off season why the disrespect why the open display of ignorance and dislike. surely at the least in the offseason we can be just abit analytical and fair minded and not let the dislike of a team cloud the judgment.

lol at the precious tiger posters.
once again the only thing ive done is the above post in reply to what i thought was a facetious post.
from that point on ive been replying to tiger posts who it seems bitterly disagree with the above post for no other reason than in someone elses opinion their players havent been rated higher enough for them.
sheesh for writing the above i cop posts liek here we go again you cant help yourself. ot the troll has returned.
its funny railroaded off the tiger board for doing posts like the above, posts that are as fair minded as i can be and actually what i think thus honest. and now attempts to railroad me off the main board for similar posts. and why for no other reason than i have a differing opinion to most tiger supporters.
all of a sudden im the one hijacking a thread i suggest the opposite. post your opinion at your peril with tiger posters they just cant let it go if they read what they dislike.

as ive already said yet posts continue, i stand by my comments and theres little any of those nuffies can say to change my mind. i dont believe i broken any guidelines and ive stated im happy to move on but the prrecious ones just cant leave it be.

 

[santa claws]

I'd rate the KPFs as...
Reiwoldt, Henderson, Vickery, Waite.

1/The last 2 are actually pretty close statistically, and Vickery plays more (and being younger, has more upside).

If Waite could get on the park it might be different, but when looking at the value as a player, turning up is important, so I think it's fair to 'mrk down' players who are made of glass.

Considering Jack will be moved to CHF this year by all reports, that leaves

CHF: Reiwoldt > Henderson
CHF: Vickery > Waite.



2/ You need to look at the pairs here Warnock/Kreuzer Vs Maric/Hampson...I'd still give it to Carlton, but the Richmond pair would seem more versatile with Warnock being a bit of a liability around the ground.



Agree. As I said above, turning up is a big deal.



3/If Santa is so honest and unbiased, how come every post he makes is against Richmond?

4/ He's every Richmond haters favorite 'richmond supporter' for a reason, but it's reached the point where even they wont use his comments to support their arguments because they know they'll be laughed at.

1/ statistically there is a difference between waite and vickery. for me the key stats for tall forwards
waite - mks 5.71. - dis 14.17. - gls 1.33. - tkle 2.55 - c/m 1.14. - 1% 2.89.
vickery - mks 3.72 - dis 10.30. - gls 1.04. - tkle 1.87 - cm 1.01 - 1% 1.73
when fit waite has been a consistent and effective forward. and yes theres a difference in age and experience but hey if we are useing stats.i wonder is there a measurement for crapping oneself when playing in the ruck. but hey vickery doesnt do this. us critics are seeing things. they just went and got hampson because the nearly 24yo 6th yr player with nearly 100 games has shown he cant atm hack it in the ruck.yes now that is real criticim i reckon hes got a heart the size of a pea.
so your prepared to fudge the way things are presented to score a point unbelievable. at least i can say im honest and sincere.

2/ i chose a pair maric and kruezer in comparing the lot of em. but hey thats over the top, i didnt choose vickery or hampson as well as maric lol.

3/ where is every post against richmond. i did a simple player v player comparison and your doing cartwheels for no other reason than you disagree. ffs bud get over yourself we all disagree a lot of the time.

4/ even funnier. the number of likes ive had on this topic has been many and theres been many form neutral supporters. you do know there are tiger posters who agree with me as well but are sick of being hounded.

anyway i apologise to all for replying to this waffle but it seems the precious ones cant let a thing go

 

[Stylo]

at least i can say im honest and sincere.

hehehehe

 

[regpies]

The following Collingwood players have played for the team from 2010 - 2014:

• Dane Swan
• Scott Pendlebury
• Dayne Beams
• Travis Cloke
• Jarryd Blair
• Harry O'Brien
• Steele Sidebottom
• Nick Maxwell
• Alan Toovey
• Luke Ball
• Ben Reid
• Brent Macaffer (even though missed a season in the middle)

It's a solid core of 12 for sure, including some premium talent at the top end. But here are the players that they are missing from their previous campaigns (limited to a top 10 list for each year):

2010
Alan Didak
Dale Thomas
Heath Shaw
Ben Johnson
Darren Jolly
Sharrod Wellingham
Tarkyn Lockyer
Chris Dawes
Leon Davis
Leigh Brown

2011
Dale Thomas
Leon Davis
Heath Shaw
Darren Jolly
Ben Johnson
Chris Dawes
Andrew Krakouer
Sharrod Wellingham
Cameron Wood
Alan Didak

2012
Heath Shaw
Darren Jolly
Dale Thomas
Cameron Wood
Sharrod Wellingham
Alex Fasolo
Martin Clarke
Tyson Goldsack
Chris Dawes
Ben Johnson


And finally, the best from the 2014 crop of non-common players:

2014
Ben Hudson
Paul Seedsman
Josh Thomas
Marley Williams
Brodie Grundy
Jamie Elliott
Quinten Lynch
Lachlan Keeffe
Taylor Adams
Jesse White


IMO the decline will continue for Collingwood.

Not sure why you think we will decline when we have replaced old players with young players, a number of those young players are high draft picks. Plus guys like Beams, Keefe and Toovey will have had a full pre season.

As for your lists -

2012
Heath Shaw - A big loss but his trade for Adams could be a big gain
Darren Jolly - Cooked and hasn't offered much the past 2 seasons
Dale Thomas - Cooked and hasn't offered much the past 2 seasons and ankle is shot, good decision to let go and got pick 11 as a replacement.
Cameron Wood - Useless, no loss
Sharrod Wellingham - Inconsistent player, wasn't sad to see him go. Traded Wellingham for the pick that got us Grundy, could be best trade Collingwood has ever done.
Alex Fasolo - Not gone, still at the club, do your research
Martin Clarke - Not gone, still at the club, do your research
Tyson Goldsack - Not gone, still at the club, do your research
Chris Dawes - Traded for pick that got us Broomhead, jury out on that trade
Ben Johnson - Retired, can't do much about that


What exactly is a "non common player"? I'd think playing 2/3rds (14 or more games) of the year makes you fairly common.

And finally, the best from the 2014 crop of non-common players:

2014
Ben Hudson - Ruck insurance, played 7 games, will play about the same this year
Paul Seedsman - Played 17 games in his 2nd season, kicks it a mile
Josh Thomas - Played 19 games in his 1st season at AFL level after major injury issues, a number were 25+ pos, non common player?
Marley Williams - Played 16 games in 2nd season, non common player?
Brodie Grundy - 1st season, had no pre season, what other 1st year ruckman has had an impact like he had in his first few games?
Jamie Elliott - Played 20 games and 30 goals in 2nd season, non common player?
Quinten Lynch - Played 18 games, half of them while injured, filling a list gap
Lachlan Keeffe - Played 8 Coming off a knee reco, if fit in the best 22 every week, non common player?
Taylor Adams - 2nd season averages 20+ pos in a team that got smashed every week, non common player?
Jesse White - Surprised everyone with how he played last season, I thought he should've been delisted by the Swans years ago