Who'll be the next club to fall off their cliff?

[VinnieB]

I think WC is a lock as they are still getting worse but North or Hawks could move. Geelong / Richmond could slide more or another top 8 team implode like Melbourne/Port for example. Even the Pies could drop off, although they won't be challenging the bottom 4 even if they miss the 8 on the back of injury / close losses.

I think the bottom has been similar for a few years so probably time it shifts too even if it seems unlikely at this stage.

Why would the Pies miss the 8? They have been the best team over the past 2 seasons.

Just looking at their % past couple of seasons and you can see how poor the bottom 3 are. I can see North maybe winning a couple more games, but Hawthorn and WCE probably stay the same amount of wins. Maybe if WCE can get players healthy, they can also win a couple more.

 

[Purple Suit]

Why would the Pies miss the 8? They have been the best team over the past 2 seasons.

Just looking at their % past couple of seasons and you can see how poor the bottom 3 are. I can see North maybe winning a couple more games, but Hawthorn and WCE probably stay the same amount of wins. Maybe if WCE can get players healthy, they can also win a couple more.

Now change that to Geelong and write it at the end of the 2023. That's how you miss the 8.

Not likely but not that far fetched.

 

[VinnieB]

Now change that to Geelong and write it at the end of the 2023. That's how you miss the 8.

Not likely but not that far fetched.

In all fairness Geelong had been up for quite a while so are entitled to have one off season. I also don’t think they have the same quality 24-30 yr olds the Pies have.

Add the best young kid in the game, 1st round draft picks from the past couple of drafts who will get more of an opportunity and the Pies can improve further.

 

[Joao]

In all fairness Geelong had been up for quite a while so are entitled to have one off season. I also don’t think they have the same quality 24-30 yr olds the Pies have.

Add the best young kid in the game, 1st round draft picks from the past couple of drafts who will get more of an opportunity and the Pies can improve further.

Pies could improve or could fall off a cliff. It's all in play and history shows that.

 

[Ctracks]

West Coast have already fallen off the cliff.

 

[Mr Meow]

It's the nature of the 2 goal losses.
Cats were always in those games but got overrun. Very similar to the hawks in 2017. Hawks rebounded in 18, but it was all downhill and the writing was on the wall.

Cats similarly poised.

Do you also not see the concern in dropping games at GMHBA? The ground dimensions benefit the Cats a great deal. The bankable certainty isn't there any more

12 players were sent for surgery for the Bulldogs match so remove that one.

Geelong went 6-2, beat a couple of top 4 sides (Port and Melbourne), lost to a prelim finalist and otherwise just had one loss (the bad one, to Freo). Both were close losses.

7-2 or 8-1 at GMHBA remains likely in 2024. So 6-8 or 5-9 elsewhere will probably be enough for finals qualification.

 

[Smithdogmaddog]

It’s obviously Collingwood, they’re not as young as many think and some in the media pedal. Skewed by a couple of gun younger players but they’ve probably got another 2-3 years max to pinch another flag.

This myth that McRae is somehow a genius because he took them from down the bottom to top is so disingenuous or people just really are that dumb and simple thinkers. The year they were down the bottom was a clear outlier, they played in and almost won a grand final in 2018 FFS with most of the same players. It’s been a sustained run up or near the top of the ladder which will most likely come to an end soon just like it has for Hawthorn, Richmond then Geelong.

 

[SC_Power]

It’s obviously Collingwood, they’re not as young as many think and some in the media pedal. Skewed by a couple of gun younger players but they’ve probably got another 2-3 years max to pinch another flag.

This myth that McRae is somehow a genius because he took them from down the bottom to top is so disingenuous or people just really are that dumb and simple thinkers. The year they were down the bottom was a clear outlier, they played in and almost won a grand final in 2018 FFS with most of the same players. It’s been a sustained run up or near the top of the ladder which will most likely come to an end soon just like it has for Hawthorn, Richmond then Geelong.

Those who watch football know your observations are correct.
Those who earn their money in the media can’t afford to be ostracised by stating same.

 

[Muddiemoose]

It’s obviously Collingwood, they’re not as young as many think and some in the media pedal. Skewed by a couple of gun younger players but they’ve probably got another 2-3 years max to pinch another flag.

This myth that McRae is somehow a genius because he took them from down the bottom to top is so disingenuous or people just really are that dumb and simple thinkers. The year they were down the bottom was a clear outlier, they played in and almost won a grand final in 2018 FFS with most of the same players. It’s been a sustained run up or near the top of the ladder which will most likely come to an end soon just like it has for Hawthorn, Richmond then Geelong.

Tend to agree
They have a decent enough core (most teams do) but for the most part they are either pushing 30 or above not sure if they have the cattle to replace the aging stars who’s output will naturally drop off and experienced depth will get eaten away year over year looking for opportunities

 

[VinnieB]

It’s obviously Collingwood, they’re not as young as many think and some in the media pedal. Skewed by a couple of gun younger players but they’ve probably got another 2-3 years max to pinch another flag.

This myth that McRae is somehow a genius because he took them from down the bottom to top is so disingenuous or people just really are that dumb and simple thinkers. The year they were down the bottom was a clear outlier, they played in and almost won a grand final in 2018 FFS with most of the same players. It’s been a sustained run up or near the top of the ladder which will most likely come to an end soon just like it has for Hawthorn, Richmond then Geelong.

So you think the Pies have another 2-3 years left to win another flag? Thats great.

In the meantime we’ll just continue to build up the list. It’s great now that our salary cap is in order. We basically won a grand final with 1 arm tied behind our back.

 

[FootyLad0]

I also think that people are naive (or just hopeful) thinking when you hit 30 you're going to struggle.
Whether it's science, professionalism, modern training or body maintenance programs, the simple fact is more players are playing great football into their 30s.

Having quality senior players helps develop strong young leaders of the future, and also provides time to gradually replenish the list.
Also, as Geelong showed, 1 draft enabled them to trade in 2 quality kids into the team. The contirbution of these kids is often underrated, and the very reason why the club manages to perform.

I suspect Geelong will be playing finals in 2024. I think trying to rebuild by just playing kids out of necessity is a dated strategy. It's just unnecessary, unless you have no senior leaders at the club. I suspcet the bottom teams over the past couple of years will struggle to make a meaningful impact over the coming seasons. If they get their top 10 picks wrong, they'll just need to face the reality of not challenging for quite a long time.

Very well put! Not just stupid old talking points that people like to fall back on.

Brisbane has close to the oldest list and are there abouts, Geelong and Collingwood both won with the oldest and 2nd oldest lists in the League.

Bulldogs and West Coast had older lists when they won, Richmond had close to the oldest list when they were winning, same with the Hawks during their dynasty.

The narrative about average age is always a funny one. Being 30 doesn't mean you suddenly just stop being good.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Very well put! Not just stupid old talking points that people like to fall back on.

Brisbane has close to the oldest list and are there abouts, Geelong and Collingwood both won with the oldest and 2nd oldest lists in the League.

Bulldogs and West Coast had older lists when they won, Richmond had close to the oldest list when they were winning, same with the Hawks during their dynasty.

The narrative about average age is always a funny one. Being 30 doesn't mean you suddenly just stop being good.

It’s not so much the older guys not being good in fact it’s the opposite it’s more that the older your list is the more of them you have and at some point they need to be replaced.

Instead of replacing one a year or so the team may need to replace 3 or 4 meaning 3 or 4 extra kids into the side so the rest of the squad need to pick up that slack as the younger players develop or you need to promote one of the more experienced depth players to be more consistent in the 22 but they are generally depth players for a reason and aren’t the same caliber as the player they are replacing or at the very least you are losing depth that is essential to cover injuries

Compound that over a period of 2 - 3 years and that’s when teams fall off the cliff

Throw in the fact that a team that has been competitive for the past 3 - 4 years has also been for the most part been limited in terms of the pointy end of the draft it also means those kids that you need to promote may not be as good as the teams currently building

 

[VinnieB]

It’s not so much the older guys not being good in fact it’s the opposite it’s more that the older your list is the more of them you have and at some point they need to be replaced.

Instead of replacing one a year or so the team may need to replace 3 or 4 meaning 3 or 4 extra kids into the side so the rest of the squad need to pick up that slack as the younger players develop or you need to promote one of the more experienced depth players to be more consistent in the 22 but they are generally depth players for a reason and aren’t the same caliber as the player they are replacing or at the very least you are losing depth that is essential to cover injuries

Compound that over a period of 2 - 3 years and that’s when teams fall off the cliff

Throw in the fact that a team that has been competitive for the past 3 - 4 years has also been for the most part been limited in terms of the pointy end of the draft it also means those kids that you need to promote may not be as good as the teams currently building

Or as Geelong did, they trade in 2x 1st round picks and trade for another top 10 pick.

Or the Pies picking up a father-son who almost won the Brownlow in his 2nd year and is our best player.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Or as Geelong did, they trade in 2x 1st round picks and trade for another top 10 pick.

Or the Pies picking up a father-son who almost won the Brownlow in his 2nd year and is our best player.

That’s all very well and good but just having a very quick look over the pies list you guys have 9 players in your 22 who are turning 30+ this year

That is essentially half of your best 22 that needs to be turned over in the next 2 - 3 years to players of similar caliber to achieve your current level of on field output

That is a massive amount to replace in a short time span and even if you are trading x2 draftees this year you still need them to come good (the draft isn’t a sure thing) and you are generally looking at 2 - 3 seasons before they start to play consistent afl level football and that’s only if they are getting games

 

[Joao]

To be honest, if you are an older team you want the cliff (when your time ends). You don't want to finish 6-12 for 3 or 4 years after your window closes thinking you are still in the mix. Ask the Hawks fans about that.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Tend to agree
They have a decent enough core (most teams do) but for the most part they are either pushing 30 or above not sure if they have the cattle to replace the aging stars who’s output will naturally drop off and experienced depth will get eaten away year over year looking for opportunities

To add to this, they have 1 top 10 pick under 27 years of age on their list(Daicos).

If you look at top 15 picks, they have 1 more(Quaynor).

 

[Muddiemoose]

To add to this, they have 1 top 10 pick under 27 years of age on their list(Daicos).

If you look at top 15 picks, they have 1 more(Quaynor).

The other concern would be that they have slowly been losing the players that would be the natural replacements for that older generation
Stephenson, Henry and Ginnivan would of all been locks in the 22 and a decent amount of experience/ age

But because they are moved on they will be forced to play younger and less experienced kids

What pies fans are saying now are very similar to what us tigers fans said a few years ago but our position now reflects what happened
Older stars aged out but due to being in the window the kids don’t get as much as a opportunity but all of a sudden they need to replace the old guard

 

[1990crow]

A decade in the bottom 4

Regular, humiliating 12 goal drubbings at home in the newly renovated but only half-full Kardinia Park

On SM-A225F using BigFooty.com mobile app

I'm no Geelong fan but there's no chance this will happen.

Bruhn, Holmes, Clark, O'Sullivan, De Koning, O.Henry, Miers, Close, Z.Guthrie, J.Henry, Parfitt, Bowes, Stengle

Is a decent starting point. Plus I'm sure they'll find a way to turn decent players out of Stevens, Knevitt and Dempsey.

 

[VinnieB]

The other concern would be that they have slowly been losing the players that would be the natural replacements for that older generation
Stephenson, Henry and Ginnivan would of all been locks in the 22 and a decent amount of experience/ age

But because they are moved on they will be forced to play younger and less experienced kids

What pies fans are saying now are very similar to what us tigers fans said a few years ago but our position now reflects what happened
Older stars aged out but due to being in the window the kids don’t get as much as a opportunity but all of a sudden they need to replace the old guard

Ginnivan was heading to the VFL.
You do realise we brought in Schultz?
Stephensen had his issues and we’ve seen that play out at North.

 

[Ctracks]

It’s obviously Collingwood, they’re not as young as many think and some in the media pedal. Skewed by a couple of gun younger players but they’ve probably got another 2-3 years max to pinch another flag.

This myth that McRae is somehow a genius because he took them from down the bottom to top is so disingenuous or people just really are that dumb and simple thinkers. The year they were down the bottom was a clear outlier, they played in and almost won a grand final in 2018 FFS with most of the same players. It’s been a sustained run up or near the top of the ladder which will most likely come to an end soon just like it has for Hawthorn, Richmond then Geelong.

Chill out man.

 

[adammania9]

It’s obviously Collingwood, they’re not as young as many think and some in the media pedal. Skewed by a couple of gun younger players but they’ve probably got another 2-3 years max to pinch another flag.

This myth that McRae is somehow a genius because he took them from down the bottom to top is so disingenuous or people just really are that dumb and simple thinkers. The year they were down the bottom was a clear outlier, they played in and almost won a grand final in 2018 FFS with most of the same players. It’s been a sustained run up or near the top of the ladder which will most likely come to an end soon just like it has for Hawthorn, Richmond then Geelong.

So are we next to fall off the cliff or does the club have 2-3 years left in them?

Or do you think the ladder will stay the same for 2-3 years until the Pies fall off?

 

[VinnieB]

The other concern would be that they have slowly been losing the players that would be the natural replacements for that older generation
Stephenson, Henry and Ginnivan would of all been locks in the 22 and a decent amount of experience/ age

But because they are moved on they will be forced to play younger and less experienced kids

What pies fans are saying now are very similar to what us tigers fans said a few years ago but our position now reflects what happened
Older stars aged out but due to being in the window the kids don’t get as much as a opportunity but all of a sudden they need to replace the old guard

24 players in the GF of which half a dozen were 23 and under.
Did we have 9 players 30 and over? Hardly a disaster.

 

[VinnieB]

To add to this, they have 1 top 10 pick under 27 years of age on their list(Daicos).

If you look at top 15 picks, they have 1 more(Quaynor).

Is that all you have to hang on to? Top 10 picks?

What happened to your top 10 picks over the past 3 years?

A VFL standard defender, a ‘meh’ midfielder and another midfielder that couldn’t get a regular game in a bottom 3 team.

 

[VinnieB]

Chill out man.

I don’t think he realised we were on our way down having being pumped by Geelong in a final, losing Treloar, Grundy and Stephensen, and a salary cap bursting at the seams.

We had a terrible game style and players disillusioned with the club.

A clean out of the coaching staff brought in a new club environment, game style etc.

But yeah. MaCrae is overrated.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

The other concern would be that they have slowly been losing the players that would be the natural replacements for that older generation
Stephenson, Henry and Ginnivan would of all been locks in the 22 and a decent amount of experience/ age

But because they are moved on they will be forced to play younger and less experienced kids

What pies fans are saying now are very similar to what us tigers fans said a few years ago but our position now reflects what happened
Older stars aged out but due to being in the window the kids don’t get as much as a opportunity but all of a sudden they need to replace the old guard

Trading out of the top end of the drafts requires you to absolutely nail your later picks too, which can be done, but comes with significant risk.