Who'll be the next club to fall off their cliff?

[RUNVS]

Another ageist post from you that is not actually on topic.

You asked why people might think Geelong would do better this year. I answered.

Ageist? You make it sound like I am in favour of taking away the vote for pensioners. I am talking about people who are 32 years old.

 

[VinnieB]

Relevance?

The Hawks' top 10 picks - Watson, Wingard, Grainger-Barras, Scrimshaw, Ward, Mackenzie

You wouldn't trade Daicos for the lot

Let’s see how Watson goes, but I think Hawthorn have stuffed up their top 10 picks. Grainger-Barrass is big average and Ward and McKenzie are midfielders who won’t break games open. You can find these types of players anywhere.

They are lucky Newcombe has come along. But he isn’t top 10, so under this guy’s reasoning, has no relevance on performance.

Maybe if we traded for Paddy Dow, Dylan Stephens, Will Phillips etc we would be considered flag contenders for years to come. Moronic logic.

 

[VinnieB]

2023
Geelong (14)
32+ - Hawkins, Smith, Touhy, Dangerfield, Stanley, Ceglar
29-32 – Blicavas, Rohan, Duncan, Menegola, Guthrie, Stewart, Cameron, Bews
27-29 – Kolodjashnij, Atkins
25-27 – O'Connor, Bowes
23-25 – Parfitt, Simpson, Guthrie, Ratugolea, Close, Henry. Stengle, Miers
21-23 – De Koning
Under 21 – Bruhn. Henry, Holmes

2024
Geelong (11)
32+ - Hawkins, Tuohy, Dangerfield, Stanley, Blicavas, Rohan, Duncan
29-32 – C.Guthrie, Stewart, Cameron, Bews
27-29 – Kolodjashnig, Atkins
25-27 – O'Connor, Bowes, Parfitt, Z.Guthrie, Close, Henry, Stengle
23-25 – Miers, Mullin
21-23 – De-Koning, Jeka, Bruhn, Neale, O.Henry, Holmes
Under 21 – Dempey, Knevitt

So there are some differences as Geelong did manage to decrease the number of players over 29 from 14 to 11 in the space of 12 months but some of your oldest players in 2024 are still very much some of your best.

I can’t see why Geelong won’t be playing finals.
Stewart is currently one of the best backmen in the game and Cameron is one of the best forwards. So they are 31. Doesn’t means their performance will call off a cliff this season.

And the 21-29 group looks good. 21-25 have plenty of improvement in them. You didn’t include Clarke who was a top 10 pick in the 2022 draft. Had some injuries, but that’s another midfielder expected.

A hiccup in 1 year doesn’t mean it is the start of the downfall. Happened all the time.

Dealing, Henry, Bruhn, Holmes are kids that are higher quality than most of the bottom few teams have despite not bottoming out. There’s an issue in these threads where fans from bottom teams focus on quantity of kids, rather than quality. I get it. That’s all they have to cling on to.

A better list than most.

Compare this list against Richmond’s. Now they have significant issues..

 

[Pistol Night]

Let’s see how Watson goes, but I think Hawthorn have stuffed up their top 10 picks. Grainger-Barrass is big average and Ward and McKenzie are midfielders who won’t break games open. You can find these types of players anywhere.

They are lucky Newcombe has come along. But he isn’t top 10, so under this guy’s reasoning, has no relevance on performance.

Maybe if we traded for Paddy Dow, Dylan Stephens, Will Phillips etc we would be considered flag contenders for years to come. Moronic logic.

High draft picks don’t always mean success. Look at Carlton and Melbourne earlier this decade. Geelong have stayed at rhe top for 15 years through shrewd recruiting.

 

[VinnieB]

High draft picks don’t always mean success. Look at Carlton and Melbourne earlier this decade. Geelong have stayed at rhe top for 15 years through shrewd recruiting.

And strong leaders. I think this is something that is underestimated. Strong leaders develop young leaders.
Pendles has been nowhere near what he was 3 or 4 years ago. However, his coaching on the field has been outstanding. You now see the likes of Nick Daicos taking over. Even Markov has become a leader on the field.

The bottom clubs don’t have that.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

High draft picks don’t always mean success. Look at Carlton and Melbourne earlier this decade. Geelong have stayed at rhe top for 15 years through shrewd recruiting.

Melbourne don't win the 2021 flag without Petracca and Oliver. 2x Top 5 picks, and quite rightly are seen to have underachieved since 2021.

Geelong have stayed at the top through Father Sons and "the surf coast" factor for trade and FA targets.

Pretty much other club that's won a flag in the last 15 years has a number of Top 10 picks on their list that are the 'star power' of their premiership push.

Collingwood have 1 under the age of 27, which even G Wright would think is something that needs to be rectified, when you're the oldest list in the comp relying on so many older heads.

 

[adammania9]

Melbourne don't win the 2021 flag without Petracca and Oliver. 2x Top 5 picks, and quite rightly are seen to have underachieved since 2021.

Geelong have stayed at the top through Father Sons and "the surf coast" factor for trade and FA targets.

Pretty much other club that's won a flag in the last 15 years has a number of Top 10 picks on their list that are the 'star power' of their premiership push.

Collingwood have 1 under the age of 27, which even G Wright would think is something that needs to be rectified, when you're the oldest list in the comp relying on so many older heads.

1 under 27... gee that will be a heavy fall in 5-6 years time if SYL's theory is correct

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Freo.

Oh wait. They were never on the cliff.

 

[Pistol Night]

Melbourne don't win the 2021 flag without Petracca and Oliver. 2x Top 5 picks, and quite rightly are seen to have underachieved since 2021.

Geelong have stayed at the top through Father Sons and "the surf coast" factor for trade and FA targets.

Pretty much other club that's won a flag in the last 15 years has a number of Top 10 picks on their list that are the 'star power' of their premiership push.

Collingwood have 1 under the age of 27, which even G Wright would think is something that needs to be rectified, when you're the oldest list in the comp relying on so many older heads.

Yeah obviously. First round and early second can still be high quality

 

[Pistol Night]

1 under 27... gee that will be a heavy fall in 5-6 years time if SYL's theory is correct

Oh well we’ll have Bailey Smith next year so that’ll help the demographic

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

The only teams at the top of their cliff are Collingwood, Brisbane, Melbourne and maybe Geelong. It is possible that Geelong have already fallen and won the flag in 2022 as the last year they were a genuine chance. Would assume Melbourne go next once Gawn and May stop being elite.

Think you are a year late with the Cats being at the top of their cliff...

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Pretty confident Cats will rise up the ladder again in 2024.

Can see Richmond struggling this year.

I doubt the Cats will drop any (much) further... the big question is can you bounce back into finals?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I can’t see why Geelong won’t be playing finals.
Stewart is currently one of the best backmen in the game and Cameron is one of the best forwards. So they are 31. Doesn’t means their performance will call off a cliff this season.

And the 21-29 group looks good. 21-25 have plenty of improvement in them. You didn’t include Clarke who was a top 10 pick in the 2022 draft. Had some injuries, but that’s another midfielder expected.

A hiccup in 1 year doesn’t mean it is the start of the downfall. Happened all the time.

Dealing, Henry, Bruhn, Holmes are kids that are higher quality than most of the bottom few teams have despite not bottoming out. There’s an issue in these threads where fans from bottom teams focus on quantity of kids, rather than quality. I get it. That’s all they have to cling on to.

A better list than most.

Compare this list against Richmond’s. Now they have significant issues..

Yeah, I'm more confident the Cats may bounce back into finals if more goes right next season... but can't see Richmond making the finals for a while.

Think both may miss finals action though.

 

[VinnieB]

Melbourne don't win the 2021 flag without Petracca and Oliver. 2x Top 5 picks, and quite rightly are seen to have underachieved since 2021.

Geelong have stayed at the top through Father Sons and "the surf coast" factor for trade and FA targets.

Pretty much other club that's won a flag in the last 15 years has a number of Top 10 picks on their list that are the 'star power' of their premiership push.

Collingwood have 1 under the age of 27, which even G Wright would think is something that needs to be rectified, when you're the oldest list in the comp relying on so many older heads.

I think Richmond had 2, Geelong (?), Doggies (1?), Melbourne 2, West Coast?. So, if we get 1 more, we should be set?

So the Hawks need to find themselves some top 5 picks then?
A very long road ahead for the Hawks. Particularly when by far your best player is 29, and by your theory, only has a couple of years left in him before you will be writing him off....

 

[Muddiemoose]

I think Richmond had 2, Geelong (?), Doggies (1?), Swans ? Melbourne 2. So, if we get 1 more, we should be set?

So the Hawks need to find themselves some top 5 picks then?
A very long road ahead for the Hawks. Particularly when by far your best player is 29, and by your theory, only has a couple of years left in him before you will be writing him off....

Richmond had more than two
Cotch pick 2
Dusty pick 3
Nick Vlaustin pick 9

& a few not drafted by Richmond but still top 10 picks
Dion Prestia Pick 9 (Gold Coast)
Josh Caddy Pick 7 (Gold Coast)

Other first round picks
Rance pick 18
B Ellis pick 15
Riewoldt pick 13
Dan Rioli pick 15
Lynch Pick 11 (Gold Coast)
Grigg pick 19 (Carlton)

 

[Mr Meow]

Ageist? You make it sound like I am in favour of taking away the vote for pensioners. I am talking about people who are 32 years old.

Last year was Geelong's worst run of injuries (parts of the field missing a few important players at the same time most weeks) this century. It wasn't just old players or soft tissue injuries, but freak impact incidents, collisions and plain bad luck.

The Cats list will be old in 2024 but it was older in 2022 and the injuries were manageable that year.

The side simply wasn't fit either in 2023 and they are rectifying that for season 2024.

It panned out to be a tough draw in 2023 too. No home games the first 5 weeks, getting sides at the wrong time, a tough run home with a list that was knackered from playing catch up.

In 2024 we get early home games and a softer run of opponents (on paper), basically everyone has been on the track early in pre season (last year a lot were sidelined even in March) and there is the pride factor in bouncing back. This happened after the poor 2012, 2015 and 2018 seasons.

Geelong won't contend for a flag but are a good shot at finals.

 

[RUNVS]

The Cats list will be old in 2024 but it was older in 2022 and the injuries were manageable that year.

The difference is though is that Geelong were a better side in 2022 than 2024.

Geelong have gone from a top old team in 2022, which is fine if it means winning a flag, to being a middle of the road old team, which is not so good as that is what North Melbourne were around 7 or 8 years ago.

A team can only be old if they are contending for flags. If they are old and not contending for flags that is a big problem.

 

[Mr Meow]

The difference is though is that Geelong were a better side in 2022 than 2024.

Geelong have gone from a top old team in 2022, which is fine if it means winning a flag, to being a middle of the road old team, which is not so good as that is what North Melbourne were around 7 or 8 years ago.

A team can only be old if they are contending for flags. If they are old and not contending for flags that is a big problem.

We'll see.

You asked for the case and you got two fairly credible answers.

 

[RUNVS]

We'll see.

You asked for the case and you got two fairly credible answers.

Yep, and I found those answers interesting. I don't necessarily agree with them but I am definitely not saying I am right and those answers are wrong.

 

[Mr Meow]

Yep, and I found those answers interesting. I don't necessarily agree with them but I am definitely not saying I am right and those answers are wrong.

No worries.

You asked, but ultimately none of us have crystal balls to invalidate or validate plausible scenarios.

I'm going off other years where the side has had bigger pre seasons, softer draws and "average" injury runs where they've bounced back (2013, 2016, 2019). There's no guarantee the formula repeats of course.

 

[demondavey]

Melbourne.

We are genuinely shot. The Oliver situation is a mess, Joel Smith taking blow on game day, no genuine forwards bar a developing JVR, Gawn another year older, May another year older, stagnation of several players on the list that were important in 2021, and a coaching panel that failed to adjust after a disappointing 2022.

It’ll take something huge for Melbourne to be top 4. Could see us missing the 8 for the next two years and losing this year to developing GC and Hawthorn.

 

[Footy Smarts]

The difference is though is that Geelong were a better side in 2022 than 2024.

It's not really obvious why that should be the case though.

We've lost Smith and Selwood but neither made the top 10 in our B&F in 2022. They were strong contributors but not key players. On the other side Holmes didn't play the GF, Miers is a much better player, SDK should be better than the raw kid he was in 2022 and Bruhn and O Henry are talented players going into their 4th season who could step up significantly.

Yes we've got a number of very good players who are old. But Collingwood just won the flag with Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Howe and Cox 32 years and 6 months old or older. They all played important roles in the flag.

It seems strange to have Collingwood among the premiership favourites and at the same time think Geelong can't win the flag. Yes we have a couple more older players but both teams need their 32+ year olds to have good seasons to be any chance.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

After Geelong

Brisbane

I think 2023 was their last shot in the Fagan era. Was a good and pretty long run since 2019, but they are now old and I don’t see any improvement coming.

Wilmot, Ashcroft, Fletcher are players that immediately spring to mind that will be better, and that’s without really lifting the lid on some of their players that are not playing to their talent (Rayner etc.)

They’ve also acquired Doedee as well, which instantly makes their defence better. Don’t see that many that will reach the cliff in that list this year.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Richmond had more than two
Cotch pick 2
Dusty pick 3
Nick Vlaustin pick 9

& a few not drafted by Richmond but still top 10 picks
Dion Prestia Pick 9 (Gold Coast)
Josh Caddy Pick 7 (Gold Coast)

Other first round picks
Rance pick 18
B Ellis pick 15
Riewoldt pick 13
Dan Rioli pick 15
Lynch Pick 11 (Gold Coast)
Grigg pick 19 (Carlton)

Surprised to remember that Lynch was Pick 11. Tigers big 4 players of their time all top 15 picks, and in hindsight all should have been top 10 picks.

 

[My Tilly]

I doubt the Cats will drop any (much) further... the big question is can you bounce back into finals?

I think they will.
If this preseason is anything to go by. Almost the entire list is healthy for the first time in a while. Having conceded the year was effectively finished as early as late August, the club sent players in for surgeries as to avoid any delays for this stage of the new year.
When it comes to Geelong, list depth and health is premium. They must ensure Guthrie, Blicavs and Henry are right to go as they are three of the most important players (team structure) heading into the new year.