Who'll be the next club to fall off their cliff?

[Muddiemoose]

Ginnivan was heading to the VFL.
Stephensen had his issues and we’ve seen that play out at North.

Either way they would be handy over the next few seasons for you guys and better options than younger 18 year olds in terms of replacements for guns

So are we next to fall off the cliff or does the club have 2-3 years left in them?

Or do you think the ladder will stay the same for 2-3 years until the Pies fall off?

Winning the grand final is the easy bit once you are there it’s a 50\50 crack and just need to be the best team on the day

The hard bit is making it and inexperienced teams struggle to find the consistency needed to either make finals or do anything in them

Collingwood’s list profile is one that is traditionally at the tail end of its window

 

[VinnieB]

Either way they would be handy over the next few seasons for you guys and better options than younger 18 year olds in terms of replacements for guns


Winning the grand final is the easy bit once you are there it’s a 50\50 crack and just need to be the best team on the day

The hard bit is making it and inexperienced teams struggle to find the consistency needed to either make finals or do anything in them

Collingwood’s list profile is one that is traditionally at the tail end of its window

We brought in Schultz for Ginnivan. He probably wasn’t going to get another game.

Bobby Hill has been a better replacement than Stephensen. We probably wouldn’t have won a GF if we had Stephenson and not Hill.

Adams was 30/31. We managed to turn him into Schultz. So there’s another 30 yr old replaced by a better player at 25.

 

[Muddiemoose]

We brought in Schultz for Ginnivan. He probably wasn’t going to get another game.

Bobby Hill has been a better replacement than Stephensen. We probably wouldn’t have won a GF if we had Stephenson and not Hill.

But these guys are already in the 22 and Schultz essentially takes Adams spot in the 22 overall I’m talking about the 9 more you will need to find over the next 2 - 3 years and that’s without long term injury’s thrown in the mix
Ginnivan would of been a nice replacement for Elliot who is at the tail end if you still had him

You mean to tell me you have no concerns that Elliot, Mitchell, Pendles, Sidebottom, Crisp, Hoskin-Elliot, Howe, Miocek and Cox are all probably gone over the next year or so
Maybe a few play on for another year or so but by that strange Moore, Degoey are 30 themselves

that whole group needs to be replaced and you will have enough depth to have guys ready to go in and provide the same output?

 

[VinnieB]

But these guys are already in the 22 and Schultz essentially takes Adams spot in the 22 overall I’m talking about the 9 more you will need to find over the next 2 - 3 years and that’s without long term injury’s thrown in the mix
Ginnivan would of been a nice replacement for Elliot who is at the tail end if you still had him

You mean to tell me you have no concerns that Elliot, Mitchell, Pendles, Sidebottom, Crisp, Hoskin-Elliot, Howe, Miocek and Cox are all probably gone over the next year or so
Maybe a few play on for another year or so but by that strange Moore, Degoey are 30 themselves

that whole group needs to be replaced and you will have enough depth to have guys ready to go in and provide the same output?

Crisp and Mihocek and probably the 2 and have another 3 yrs in them.
Mitchell is only 30 so he isn’t retiring next year. But he can be replaced.

Sidebottom and Pendles were nothing like they were 3 yrs ago. Sidebottom in particular is up and down. N Daicos is already our best player and takes over from Pendles.

Howe has hardly played because of injury. He is easily replaced. WHE? Not sure I would classify him as important. Cox? Everyone seems to think he is rubbish until now.

MaCrae will get him opportunity as an inside mid this year. His numbers in the VFL have been excellent. Clearance work, disposals, skill is all there. Same as Carmichael who was good in his first year.

McInness will get his opportunity up forward as well. Has played a handful of games and looks strong.

You have our 1st and 2nd draft picks in Ed Allan and Ryan (played late in season but got cleaned up), who will get senior footy experience.

Ash Johnson will continue to get better.
And then you have our picks from the latest draft in Demattia and Jiath.

When you are the strongest team of the year, it’s difficult to get games. But the club has already said despite aiming for back-to-back, the kids will get much more game time.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Crisp and Mihocek and probably the 2 and have another 3 yrs in them.
Mitchell is only 30 so he isn’t retiring next year. But he can be replaced.

Sidebottom and Pendles were nothing like they were 3 yrs ago. Sidebottom in particular is up and down. N Daicos is already our best player and takes over from Pendles.

Howe has hardly played because of injury. He is easily replaced. WHE? Not sure I would classify him as important. Cox? Everyone seems to think he is rubbish until now.

MaCrae will get him opportunity as an inside mid this year. His numbers in the VFL have been excellent. Clearance work, disposals, skill is all there. Same as Carmichael who was good in his first year.

McInness will get his opportunity up forward as well. Has played a handful of games and looks strong.

You have our 1st and 2nd draft picks in Ed Allan and Ryan (played late in season but got cleaned up), who will get senior footy experience.

Ash Johnson will continue to get better.
And then you have our picks from the latest draft in Demattia and Jiath.

When you are the strongest team of the year, it’s difficult to get games. But the club has already said despite aiming for back-to-back, the kids will get much more game time.

Go have a look at the postings of tiger fans 2-3 seasons ago and see if you can see any similarities

 

[VinnieB]

Go have a look at the postings of tiger fans 2-3 seasons ago and see if you can see any similarities

With the tigers, they relied heavily on Cotchin, Martin, Riewoldt, Rance, Prestia and Lynch. Most of whom would go close to making the best ever Richmond team.
The Pies best 6 players aren't the same age.

Moore, JDG, N Daicos, Crisp, J Daicos, Maynard, Quaynor, Pendles.

Mihoceh will be hard to replace.

 

[Muddiemoose]

With the tigers, they relied heavily on Cotchin, Martin, Riewoldt, Rance, Prestia and Lynch. Most of whom would go close to making the best ever Richmond team.
The Pies best 6 players aren't the same age.

Moore, JDG, N Daicos, Crisp, J Daicos, Maynard, Quaynor, Pendles.

Mihoceh will be hard to replace.

But it’s the experience of those older guys that lets your guns shine
Every club have a group of top liners but if you don’t have the cattle around them that’s when you can’t find the consistency to win games
Those group of your best players will only be able to take you so far

Richmond on paper have Taranto, Hopper, Short, Dan Rioli, Balta and Bolton all a similar age to that group of pies players you listed and similar in terms of overall talent but we lack the quality depth around them (even with a few older vets who are still good) to be a legitimate finals contender

 

[adammania9]

Pies are gonna have some nice salary cap space to play with. The chance to be coached by McRae and play with Nick Daicos is one of the most attractive propositions in many years.

 

[Orange crush]

Pies are gonna have some nice salary cap space to play with. The chance to be coached by McRae and play with Nick Daicos is one of the most attractive propositions in many years.

And you’ve got the new indoor netball/football facilities

 

[VinnieB]

Trading out of the top end of the drafts requires you to absolutely nail your later picks too, which can be done, but comes with significant risk.

Who traded out? Richmond?

 

[Pistol Night]

And you’ve got the new indoor netball/football facilities

Maybe we were doing too much netball training and that’s why we ****ed it off. Imagine how good we’ll be if we actually train at footy more. Get around us.

 

[VinnieB]

But it’s the experience of those older guys that lets your guns shine
Every club have a group of top liners but if you don’t have the cattle around them that’s when you can’t find the consistency to win games
Those group of your best players will only be able to take you so far

Richmond on paper have Taranto, Hopper, Short, Dan Rioli, Balta and Bolton all a similar age to that group of pies players you listed and similar in terms of overall talent but we lack the quality depth around them (even with a few older vets who are still good) to be a legitimate finals contender

You seem to be clutching. Now you’re concerned about our 27/28 yr olds turning 30 in a couple more years.??!!

Most premiership teams have a similar profile. Funny how ‘young’ teams who win it every once in a while tend to not be able to back it up and fall away. Our 2010 premier team was a prime example.

You’re talking as if we need to replace 9 players in 12 months. Fact is we’ll replace 2 in the next 12 months, probably another 2 the following 12 months etc etc.

And you are assuming we recruit no-one and we don’t have any kids in the VFL (or just recruited) that are any good.

Fact is, this is the evolution of a football club. Players leave and players come in. Add the fact that these days there are so many drafting opportunities and free agency that it makes regeneration a lot easier.

Ginnivan is not an Elliot replacement. Totally different players. Harvey Harrison played a couple of games in the forward pocket on 2023 and looked capable with speed and clean skills. He should have been given more games as he offered more. Remember, the Pies moved Ginni on.

The way Elliot plays, Ash Johnson would be the alternative. Quick and can mark the ball.

Noble couldn’t even get a game end of season. He would be in just about every other best team.

Finn Macrae is probably a great example of a kid who has dominated VFL this year with his disposals and clearance work but Mitchell and Adams (VC) were ahead of him. Only got a couple of games as a sub this year, but is a natural replacement for Mitchell or Adams.

But time will tell. The kids as well as Noble and Johnson will get more game time this season. We’ll see which players have the talent.

 

[Muddiemoose]

You seem to be clutching. Now you’re concerned about our 27/28 yr olds turning 30 in a couple more years.??!!

Most premiership teams have a similar profile. Funny how ‘young’ teams who win it every once in a while tend to not be able to back it up and fall away. Our 2010 premier team was a prime example.

You’re talking as if we need to replace 9 players in 12 months. Fact is we’ll replace 2 in the next 12 months, probably another 2 the following 12 months etc etc.

And you are assuming we recruit no-one and we don’t have any kids in the VFL (or just recruited) that are any good.

Fact is, this is the evolution of a football club. Players leave and players come in. Add the fact that these days there are so many drafting opportunities and free agency that it makes regeneration a lot easier.

Ginnivan is not an Elliot replacement. Totally different players. Harvey Harrison played a couple of games in the forward pocket on 2023 and looked capable with speed and clean skills. He should have been given more games as he offered more. Remember, the Pies moved Ginni on.

The way Elliot plays, Ash Johnson would be the alternative. Quick and can mark the ball.

Noble couldn’t even get a game end of season. He would be in just about every other best team.

Finn Macrae is probably a great example of a kid who has dominated VFL this year with his disposals and clearance work but Mitchell and Adams (VC) were ahead of him. Only got a couple of games as a sub this year, but is a natural replacement for Mitchell or Adams.

But time will tell. The kids as well as Noble and Johnson will get more game time this season. We’ll see which players have the talent.

I think you are missing the point it’s not just about replacing the players themselves in the 22, that is only one aspect of the equation
You are losing a lot of experience/leadership and replacing them with kids who have next to no afl level experience

Guys like Pendles and Sidebottom are like having coaches on field and oftentimes making changes on field and calling shots
The kids replacing them can be as talented as you want but without that experience as players and the team are more prone to inconsistent performances

 

[adammania9]

To add to this, they have 1 top 10 pick under 27 years of age on their list(Daicos).

If you look at top 15 picks, they have 1 more(Quaynor).

Relevance?

The Hawks' top 10 picks - Watson, Wingard, Grainger-Barras, Scrimshaw, Ward, Mackenzie

You wouldn't trade Daicos for the lot

 

[My Tilly]

Pretty confident Cats will rise up the ladder again in 2024.

Can see Richmond struggling this year.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Relevance?

The relevance is that you’re replacing your top liners with 2nd and 3rd round picks.


Desperately trying to make it about Hawthorn doesn’t change that.

 

[adammania9]

The relevance is that you’re replacing your top liners with 2nd and 3rd round picks.


Desperately trying to make it about Hawthorn doesn’t change that.

Right. So little to no relevance at all.

 

[Sarcoidevo]

If Curnow goes down the Carlton fall will be brutal and swift

 

[banzai]

The only teams at the top of their cliff are Collingwood, Brisbane, Melbourne and maybe Geelong. It is possible that Geelong have already fallen and won the flag in 2022 as the last year they were a genuine chance. Would assume Melbourne go next once Gawn and May stop being elite.

 

[RUNVS]

Pretty confident Cats will rise up the ladder again in 2024.

Can see Richmond struggling this year.

I am not being confrontational here but what will make Geelong in 2024 better than they were in 2023?

 

[Joao]

The only teams at the top of their cliff are Collingwood, Brisbane, Melbourne and maybe Geelong. It is possible that Geelong have already fallen and won the flag in 2022 as the last year they were a genuine chance. Would assume Melbourne go next once Gawn and May stop being elite.

Most of Brisbane's best players are younger than you think. The only imminent one is Zorko I think. They've got 2-3 years on the edge I suspect and given they keep getting F/S free hits, they might be able to extend it.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Right. So little to no relevance at all.

Head in sand.

 

[The 747]

I am not being confrontational here but what will make Geelong in 2024 better than they were in 2023?

Easier draw, I think we also have more games at home early in the season.

A lot went wrong for us last year and at the wrong times so we never got going.

The optimistic case can be made for us. No need to make the pessimistic case since that has been BF's wet dream for the past 15 years.

 

[RUNVS]

Easier draw, I think we also have more games at home early in the season.

A lot went wrong for us last year and at the wrong times so we never got going.

The optimistic case can be made for us. No need to make the pessimistic case since that has been BF's wet dream for the past 15 years.

2023
Geelong (14)
32+ - Hawkins, Smith, Touhy, Dangerfield, Stanley, Ceglar
29-32 – Blicavas, Rohan, Duncan, Menegola, Guthrie, Stewart, Cameron, Bews
27-29 – Kolodjashnij, Atkins
25-27 – O'Connor, Bowes
23-25 – Parfitt, Simpson, Guthrie, Ratugolea, Close, Henry. Stengle, Miers
21-23 – De Koning
Under 21 – Bruhn. Henry, Holmes

2024
Geelong (11)
32+ - Hawkins, Tuohy, Dangerfield, Stanley, Blicavas, Rohan, Duncan
29-32 – C.Guthrie, Stewart, Cameron, Bews
27-29 – Kolodjashnig, Atkins
25-27 – O'Connor, Bowes, Parfitt, Z.Guthrie, Close, Henry, Stengle
23-25 – Miers, Mullin
21-23 – De-Koning, Jeka, Bruhn, Neale, O.Henry, Holmes
Under 21 – Dempey, Knevitt

So there are some differences as Geelong did manage to decrease the number of players over 29 from 14 to 11 in the space of 12 months but some of your oldest players in 2024 are still very much some of your best.

 

[The 747]

2023
Geelong (14)
32+ - Hawkins, Smith, Touhy, Dangerfield, Stanley, Ceglar
29-32 – Blicavas, Rohan, Duncan, Menegola, Guthrie, Stewart, Cameron, Bews
27-29 – Kolodjashnij, Atkins
25-27 – O'Connor, Bowes
23-25 – Parfitt, Simpson, Guthrie, Ratugolea, Close, Henry. Stengle, Miers
21-23 – De Koning
Under 21 – Bruhn. Henry, Holmes

2024
Geelong (11)
32+ - Hawkins, Tuohy, Dangerfield, Stanley, Blicavas, Rohan, Duncan
29-32 – C.Guthrie, Stewart, Cameron, Bews
27-29 – Kolodjashnig, Atkins
25-27 – O'Connor, Bowes, Parfitt, Z.Guthrie, Close, Henry, Stengle
23-25 – Miers, Mullin
21-23 – De-Koning, Jeka, Bruhn, Neale, O.Henry, Holmes
Under 21 – Dempey, Knevitt

So there are some differences as Geelong did manage to decrease the number of players over 29 from 14 to 11 in the space of 12 months but some of your oldest players in 2024 are still very much some of your best.

Another ageist post from you that is not actually on topic.

You asked why people might think Geelong would do better this year. I answered.