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No. The rankings are a farce.
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Why is Cyril Rioli so highly rated?
- Thread starter HappyChappy35
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It has already been touched on, but is probably worth repeating. The stats used to create these rankings are not some arbitrary selection of stats thrown together based on the opinion of a bunch of blokes sitting in a room thinking about how they would like to see players rated. They've been selected based on statistical analysis of hundreds of games that indicates the stats - and weighting of those stats - are the ones that best predict the outcome of a game. You think running half backs are overrated in these rankings? Well the stats are saying that good running half backs impact the outcome of a match more than the ability to kill the high ball as a gorilla KPD these days. Not that surprising given the way counter-attack footy has evolved in the last few years, and completely believable if you watch what is playing out on the field these days.
Rioli may well be overrated by commentators , but that is irrelevant to why he was rated 5th on that list. He was rated 5th on that list because an objective set of stats based on the ability of the statistics to predict the outcome of a game said that he was rated 5th in the league. Rioli is essentially 5th in the league at producing acts that lead to won games (using a model that chooses those stats based on their historical impact on game outcomes over hundreds of analysed games). Furthermore, due to the 40 game criteria , Rioli has been doing this consistently for quite a while.
Opposition supporters should just suck it up and admit that Hawks supporters were right all along. Rioli's possessions and other acts really ARE worth more than almost any other player in the game. The rankings indicate Rioli has about the same impact on game outcomes as Swan with a lot less possessions, but anyone that goes to games knew that already.
Rioli may well be overrated by commentators , but that is irrelevant to why he was rated 5th on that list. He was rated 5th on that list because an objective set of stats based on the ability of the statistics to predict the outcome of a game said that he was rated 5th in the league. Rioli is essentially 5th in the league at producing acts that lead to won games (using a model that chooses those stats based on their historical impact on game outcomes over hundreds of analysed games). Furthermore, due to the 40 game criteria , Rioli has been doing this consistently for quite a while.
Opposition supporters should just suck it up and admit that Hawks supporters were right all along. Rioli's possessions and other acts really ARE worth more than almost any other player in the game. The rankings indicate Rioli has about the same impact on game outcomes as Swan with a lot less possessions, but anyone that goes to games knew that already.
Great post, with two (possibly more) disclaimers. I currently believe that the defensive aspects of the game have been "double-dipped" in a few ways.
1. Influence increases as it gets closer to your scoring end. If Taylor spoils Franklin on the goal-line, it's worth less than if Franklin spoils Taylor. It should be based on proximity to relative goal - ie a Taylor spoil on Franklin worth more in the defensive goal-square than the centre circle. To me, this is counter-intuitive (so I've probably missed it somewhere)
2. Offensive and Defensive points are based on comparison with average. This is find for offensive points (disposals, scores, shots at goal, etc) - but for the defensive aspects should be based on the individual opponent (apparently coming end of 2013 with 2 years appropriate data). From reading the current explanation it would appear that a great spoil on Reiwoldt is worth the same to the defender as one where the person disposing shanks the kick to Milne's opponent. The blame is firmly on the person disposing of the ball.
3. Similarly, taggers should (and from what I've read, will) be adjudged on what effect they have on their opponent. If Mitchell averages 30 touches, is Ling more valuable to keep Sam to 13 whilst getting 10 himself, or getting 25 touches while Sam freewheels his 30+?
....
I see it as a very positive first step.
Also, the ratings are somewhat circular in their calculation. At the moment the defensive effect ratings are pre-set to zero (not enough data to calculate direct opposition, so statistically reliable only if considered neutral). Once that data is fed-back into the system, average offensive baselines will increase, which will in turn reduce their overall worth.
(urgh, that's confusing).
(urgh, that's confusing).
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Is there any possibility that Rioli is so highly regarded because people love watching him play footy? I admit this doesn't stack up when compared with pondering incessant statistics, or an analysis of whether he's an inside or outside tackler though.
After all, these are the real reasons we watch footy. When I see a towering mark, followed by a skimming pass to a full-forward, resulting in a goal, the only way I think of the mark is that it has resulted in a score assist. In fact, my theory is that this approach to a footy game is best conducted with eyes closed, to avoid distraction.
After all, these are the real reasons we watch footy. When I see a towering mark, followed by a skimming pass to a full-forward, resulting in a goal, the only way I think of the mark is that it has resulted in a score assist. In fact, my theory is that this approach to a footy game is best conducted with eyes closed, to avoid distraction.
People getting upset about player rankings and lists is the best reading ever.
If there's ever been a formulated rebuttal due to a warped perception of reality due to biased motivation, it's the bigfooty user where players in their team aren't ranked highly or a player in team they hate is ranked highly.
This is how it usually goes "I can't believe [insert player from team I dislike] is ranked so highly. I mean, [player from my team] averages [baisc accumulative stat] each game. I wouldn't even take him over [range of good role players in my team]. This [producer of list] clearly has no idea and is made just so [player from team I dislike] could be ranked so highly.
Obviously the list has flaws, as defenders, especially shut down defenders, are disregarded from the list - aside from their importance to their teams. The list doesn't rank the best or most important players, but what it does rank is how damaging a player is. This also isn't a list where someone plucks their favorite player and chucks them on a list. It's based on weighted evidence of how a capable a player can create plays that positively effects their respective team. Once you realize this - it's probably easier to see why Roili in the top 5.
If there's ever been a formulated rebuttal due to a warped perception of reality due to biased motivation, it's the bigfooty user where players in their team aren't ranked highly or a player in team they hate is ranked highly.
This is how it usually goes "I can't believe [insert player from team I dislike] is ranked so highly. I mean, [player from my team] averages [baisc accumulative stat] each game. I wouldn't even take him over [range of good role players in my team]. This [producer of list] clearly has no idea and is made just so [player from team I dislike] could be ranked so highly.
Obviously the list has flaws, as defenders, especially shut down defenders, are disregarded from the list - aside from their importance to their teams. The list doesn't rank the best or most important players, but what it does rank is how damaging a player is. This also isn't a list where someone plucks their favorite player and chucks them on a list. It's based on weighted evidence of how a capable a player can create plays that positively effects their respective team. Once you realize this - it's probably easier to see why Roili in the top 5.
Dory_77
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Obviously you wouldn't build the side around him, but you wouldn't pass up having him on a HFF/FP would you?
To me it looks like there is multiplication algorithm, where the more beneficial acts you do in a passage of play, the more your score will multiply, hence the more you will be rewarded by this points system. Which makes sense as, KPDs and KPF are ranked lower as they have less contributions that can multiply, for example, mark x effective disposal.
If this is the case, it would explain Riolis rank, as in a passage of play he's capable of tackle x effective tackle (turnover) x effective disposal x score assist.
Obviously everything has a different weighting, but this is what it looks like to me.
lol, pretty bad? Jetta is lightning fast, who gives a $hit if Rioli couldn't catch him.
It's a footy game, not the bloody Stawell Gift.
I reckon apart from the best mids and the best kpps, Cyril would be the best player in the league. The best mids are the most prolific and consistent, the best kpps are the most important structurally and Cyril Rioli is by far the best and most important player that doesn't fit into either of these categories. That says a bit about how good he is.
I don't get people who don't rate rioli highly. He is their most dangerous player behind franklin who can tear the game to shreds with pure skill and speed like he did against us a couple of weeks ago.
1 Rioli possession= 2 possessions for most players in the comp. He would be talked about as one of the best players if he didn't have as many injury problems.
1 Rioli possession= 2 possessions for most players in the comp. He would be talked about as one of the best players if he didn't have as many injury problems.
SSSSSS
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I would in no way trust those stupid rankings. I would however rank Cyril in the top 15 players. Top 5 isn't out of the question as long as he keeps up with his steady improvement.
I think Cyril is valued so highly because of his ability to completely tear games apart and make huge impact even without the highest amount of stats. When he is in the stoppages his ability to get the clearance, burst out of the pack and deliver a ball lace out to a forward is invaluable. His pressure in the contest and his ability to stick tackles is probably the best in the league. A lot of the possessions that he gets is up forward and IIRC last year he was one of the best for goal assists and scoring chain involvements.
He creates lots of space through his hard running and clever usage. Also the whole X-Factor and ability to conjure shit out of his arse would scare defenders. Kicks goals, great touch and fantastic defensive pressure basically sums him up. Hopefully as he matures, gains fitness and overcomes his injury problems he could one day be that 20-25 possession midfielder. He has been fantastic this year, much more consistent then previously.
I think Cyril is valued so highly because of his ability to completely tear games apart and make huge impact even without the highest amount of stats. When he is in the stoppages his ability to get the clearance, burst out of the pack and deliver a ball lace out to a forward is invaluable. His pressure in the contest and his ability to stick tackles is probably the best in the league. A lot of the possessions that he gets is up forward and IIRC last year he was one of the best for goal assists and scoring chain involvements.
He creates lots of space through his hard running and clever usage. Also the whole X-Factor and ability to conjure shit out of his arse would scare defenders. Kicks goals, great touch and fantastic defensive pressure basically sums him up. Hopefully as he matures, gains fitness and overcomes his injury problems he could one day be that 20-25 possession midfielder. He has been fantastic this year, much more consistent then previously.
He's not even in the top 50, massively overrated.
You could but you'd be wrong. Cyril has been the difference between winning and losing in 3 of the Hawks last 8 games.
I can understand any angst that people may have about Rioli being named the 5th best in the league (which I don't agree with), but saying that he's not in the top 50 shows that you're clearly not watching the same sport we're all watching.
Mitchell is far more reliable and consistent then Rioli. People talk about how Rioli gets Hawthorn over the line many times; the Hawks wouldnt even be at that line if it werent for the hard work of Mitchell in the middle. Yet he gets constantly overlooked.
No doubt mitchell is a great player but i disagree there are plenty of other players in the comp similar to mitchell. I would be taking rioli over mitchell he is a lot more unique.
It is impossible to rank every player, to many factors. I think that’s one of the reasons its such a great game.
The fact he's unique or more desired doesn't make him better...
I'd suggest most rank him highly. I certainly do. He's quality and entertaining.
I just don't rate him anywhere near top 5.
So you think Shannon Hurn is the best defender in the league?
I don't think he's close, even if you are just weighing up rebounding defenders.
HeHateMe
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Mitchell in no way is underrated by hawthorn people. Mitchell will give us 25-30 touches every week though linking up in the middle and wining clearances, just like Rioli will give us 16-22 touches lead us in score involvements and defensive pressure, what separates them as players is when they play BOG games.
Mitchell BOG will go to the next level and get 30-40 touches wining around half of his disposals contested and lead us in clearances, all while bringing other players in to the game.
on the other hand Rioli BOG will get 16-25 touches 3/4 of his touches will be contested, he will kick 2-5 goals as well and have around 2-5 assists, over half his disposals will end up leading to a goal and he will still lead us for defensive pressures.
Mitchell is by far our most consistent player to play at his best, almost every 2nd weak he will throw out a BOG performance but i would take a Rioli BOG over anyone at hawthorn, maybe not Buddy (Thirteeeeeeen)
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You would expect Betts to be around the same number as Rioli. What was he?
Why ?
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