Will Port really be the slider in 2014?

[Barry_Badrinath]

After looking at the ladder prediction thread, it seems Port are the popular choice as the slider in 2014 with perceived harder draw the main reason. I even tipped them to slide out of the 8 but after looking at their list I'm not so sure. The thing that stands out about Port is the age of their best 22.

B: Jonas (22), Carlisle (26), Pittard (22)/Hombsch (20)
HB: Hartlett (23), Trengove (23), O'Shea (21)
C: Broadbent (23), Boak (25), Wines (19)
HF: Monfries (26), Westhoff (27), Wingard (20)
F: Gray (25), Schulz (28), Butcher (22)/Redden (22)
Fol: Lobbe (24), Cornes (30), Ebert (23)
Int: Moore (22), Cassisi (31), Polec (21), White (26)

There's only 4 guys in there that are over 26: Cassisi (31), Cornes (30), Schulz (28) and Westhoff (27). Cassisi only played 12 games this year and the others shouldn't slow down in 2014. Odds are that a fair chunk of their young guys will continue to develop and improve this year with very few players declining no losses due to retirement.

They were the youngest (non-expansion) team in the AFL this year, yet still managed to win 13 games despite giving away a significant age and experience advantage nearly every week. Here's the average age of each club in 2013 (the age of the actual sides that lined up each week, not the irrelevant list age):

Sydney: 26.24
Hawthorn: 25.97
Geelong: 25.86
St Kilda: 25.54
Carlton: 25.33
Fremantle: 25.20
West Coast: 25.19
Collingwood: 25.17
Richmond: 24.96
Essendon: 24.82
North Melb: 24.78
Bulldogs: 24.61
Brisbane: 24.55
Adelaide: 24.40
Melbourne: 24.04
Port Adelaide: 23.75
Gold Coast: 22.98
GWS: 21.60

So as you can see the age ladder roughly correlates to the actual ladder, with a couple of big outliers. Last year it was Richmond in a similar position. They were the youngest (non-expansion) club with an average of 23.89 and won 10.5 games, and they surged up the ladder the following year.

So will Port really be the slider? With guys like Wines (19), Wingard (20), Hartlett (23) and Ebert (23) all a year closer to their prime, and nobody of any value leaving the club, it's hard to see them sliding even with a slighly harder draw. The one thing that you could count against them is that they had a pretty good run with injuries. Dom Cassisi only managed 12 games and Jarrad Redden went down for the season, but other than that their list was pretty healthy for most of the year and quite a few players played 22-24 games. Even Robbie Gray managed 20 games.

So what does everyone think? To me their scope for improvement over the next year or two is enormous.

 

[Bugglz]

As you point out they are a very inexperienced team, I can see it going either way for port. If they win a few games early on they will gain a lot of conference and should make the top 8. but if they drop a couple of early ones i'm not sure they have the experience or leadership to drag themselves out of a slump and could finish quite low as a result.
But whatever way you look at it next year will be a development year at port and with the young talent they now have the future looks bright.

 

[thegreig]

yeah if they do happen to slide next year it wont be to much of an issue for port fans, the club has a bright future to look forward to despite where they finish on the ladder in 2014

 

[1990crow]

I think they'll be somewhere between 7-10. A few sides will improve from the bottom 8 and will study Port more than they did the year before.

 

[le dominateur]

Blues will pump them round 1, Crows is 50-50 round 2, North away in Rd 3, could be under pressure early in the season.

 

[Damon_3388]

I know you could say this for all clubs really, but I can see it turning into a disappointment if they get a couple of key injuries early. They had a fairly charmed run in this sense with most of their prime movers last year. Not saying I hope it will happen, but I wouldn't at all be surprised to see them fall back into the 10-13 range, before jumping up again in 2015.

 

[Kwality]

I know you could say this for all clubs really, but I can see it turning into a disappointment if they get a couple of key injuries early. They had a fairly charmed run in this sense with most of their prime movers last year. Not saying I hope it will happen, but I wouldn't at all be surprised to see them fall back into the 10-13 range, before jumping up again in 2015.

Not sure how you can factor in injuries &/or a charmed run for 2014 yet ... crystal balls !

 

[Handsome_Jack]

Blues will pump them round 1, Crows is 50-50 round 2, North away in Rd 3, could be under pressure early in the season.

Lot of confidence for a team who beat us by the width of the post in a game we had nothing to play for last time the two teams met. A lot of Carlton fans are getting ahead of themselves based on a year they scraped into the finals on a technicality in.

 

[Dylan8]

will study Port more than they did the year before.

I don't understand when people say this at all, it's AFL level, i don't think coaches are just going to be complacent when it comes to preparing for any team.

 

[Tragic sainter]

Blues will pump them round 1, Crows is 50-50 round 2, North away in Rd 3, could be under pressure early in the season.

fairly confident that port have the blues covered.

 

[Powerade 08]

Blues will pump them round 1

Even though the final score doesn't show it, that last Blues v Port game was one of the biggest shellackings since, well, the Blues v Port game a year earlier.

Carlton and Collingwood with their smaller bodies are probably gonna be our bunnies for the next few years with so I am pretty happy we play one of those teams in r1.

 

[Natho]

What port achieved this year is probably a sneak peak into their future. They've barely got anyone in their prime. Barely got any old players. So their future could be extremely bright. Their midfield in a few years could be extremely good.

 

[Schulzenfest]

The problem for Port is that things are gonna be a lot harder next year. This year we had a charmed injury run, an easy draw and the element of surprise, and we managed 12 wins. With two of those advantages definitely gone and the chances of repeating our charmed injury run unknown (if Schulz in particular goes down, we're pretty screwed) we'll have to improve significantly just to match last year's effort of 12 wins, let alone surpass it.

Given the youth and talent of the side and the fact that they'll all have had another pre-season to learn under an AFL quality coach and fitness guy which Port haven't had since 2007, I do expect on-field improvement, but I don't expect much improvement in the win-loss column. If we finish with 12 or so wins again and continue to unearth good young players I'll be pretty satisfied with the year, especially if that's enough to make the finals.

 

[gandaal]

Even though the final score doesn't show it, that last Blues v Port game was one of the biggest shellackings since, well, the Blues v Port game a year ago.

Shellacking must have a new meaning. Clearly it now makes sense to say "We shellacked you when we lost by 1 point on our home ground."

 

[master bate]

The problem for Port is that things are gonna be a lot harder next year. This year we had a charmed injury run, an easy draw and the element of surprise, and we managed 12 wins. With two of those advantages definitely gone and the chances of repeating our charmed injury run unknown (if Schulz in particular goes down, we're pretty screwed) we'll have to improve significantly just to match last year's effort of 12 wins, let alone surpass it.

Given the youth and talent of the side and the fact that they'll all have had another pre-season to learn under an AFL quality coach and fitness guy which Port haven't had since 2007, I do expect on-field improvement, but I don't expect much improvement in the win-loss column. If we finish with 12 or so wins again and continue to unearth good young players I'll be pretty satisfied with the year, especially if that's enough to make the finals.

Agree. To sum it up they can improve as a team and be more reliable competing against the best and beating bad sides yet still not improve in the win loss column.

The same can be said on an individual level with guys like Wines and Wingard making progression as footballers but not necessarily playing as many wonderful games. Wingard especially now will have a huge mark next to his name as an absolute target for defenses. O'Shea, Pittard, Polec and Moore are other names who could be one step backwards 2 steps forward as young players. Even Lobbe, we've seen rucks appear to break out before only to get a few knocks and things and then regress before improving again. Sam Jacobs this year from the crows a great example.

 

[le dominateur]

fairly confident that port have the blues covered.

7 wins out of the last 8 clashes says otherwise.

 

[Hot Pocket]

They should still be pretty good I reckon. Great size through the midfield and a pretty good forward line.

 

[HBF]

Will be a testing year for Port. As someone else said, they have a much tougher draw this year and the element of surprise is well and truly gone. Can see them finishing somewhere between 7-10.

 

[It Just Is]

Talk of a hard draw is greatly exaggerated imo. We might no longer have the blessed run that the early rounds of 2013 delivered but all up it's still a pretty bloody favourable fixture. Lots of home games against the stronger clubs.

http://www.portadelaidefc.com.au/news/2013-10-31/2014-fixture-port

Holding ground and finishing around 5th-6th would be a good result for Port. Falling out of finals would be very disappointing.

 

[Handsome_Jack]

Hopefully the Port players are as over cofident as you, will be an even bigger win for the Blues.

The team that finished fifth this season after making the finals on merit will beat the team that finished sixth after just scraping into the finals because another team was DQ'd...such a ridiculously over confident prediction.

 

[Tiger_man322]

Blues will pump them round 1, Crows is 50-50 round 2, North away in Rd 3, could be under pressure early in the season.

Blues just got over the line against them in the last round. Yet, Blues will automatically belt them in the first round... What's this based on? Daisy?

 

[Schulzenfest]

Blues just got over the line against them in the last round.

A game in which we got 40 points up midway through the third quarter before putting the cue in the rack and focusing on our final the week after.

 

[Ketchup]

I think it's obvious. Will be lucky to finish higher than 13th

 

[Tragic sainter]

7 wins out of the last 8 clashes says otherwise.

How many times have we beaten you guys over the last five years? Means little.

 

[port_adelaide_1870]

I think it's obvious. Will be lucky to finish higher than 13th

still upset over the final?