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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Will Soccer ever take over AFL?
- Thread starter ErrolSt_Boy
- Start date
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- Banned
- #27
The way the world works is this:
No.1 sports tend to stay No.1 because there very popularity is self firfulling.
2nd tier sports tend to be very volatile in popularity. When good stuff happens they can obtain high media coverage. When nothing happens they fall away.
I'd put rugby union and soccer as 2nd tier sports. RU was popular when Australia won the world cup, but has fallen off the radar in recent years. Soccer got a huge kick with the start of the A-league, but that is now falling away, and its non-profitability is a huge burden coming into the GFC. (Global financial crisis, not Geelong football club
).
Rugby league is fast becoming a 2nd tier sport, and needs to be very careful how it manages itself over the next 10 years.
No.1 sports tend to stay No.1 because there very popularity is self firfulling.
2nd tier sports tend to be very volatile in popularity. When good stuff happens they can obtain high media coverage. When nothing happens they fall away.
I'd put rugby union and soccer as 2nd tier sports. RU was popular when Australia won the world cup, but has fallen off the radar in recent years. Soccer got a huge kick with the start of the A-league, but that is now falling away, and its non-profitability is a huge burden coming into the GFC. (Global financial crisis, not Geelong football club
).Rugby league is fast becoming a 2nd tier sport, and needs to be very careful how it manages itself over the next 10 years.
I think it'll look something like this:
Sydney
Sydney Football Stadium
ANZ Stadium
Melbourne
MCG
Melbourne Rectangular Stadium (upgraded to 40-50k)
Brisbane
Suncorp Stadium
Gold Coast
Skilled Park (upgraded to 40k)
Newcastle
EnergyAustralia Stadium (in process of being upgraded to 40k)
Adelaide
New Stadium
Perth
New Stadium
Canberra
Canberra Stadium (upgraded to 40k)
If need be you could also include Dairy Farmers Stadium in Townsville too. That'd give us 11 stadiums, more than enough.
that happened long ago my friend. soccer is by far the most popular participation sport in the country
your right about the watercooler though, i just cant see club soccer becoming more popular in oz than AFL.
i love football and i enjoy soccer very much (in particular euro, world, champions league)
i believe soccer will eventually (although i hope im wrong because OUR football is the greatest game in the world) match or surpass our great game as the numer 1 sport.....(although probably not for 20 years)
a few factors i believe that will cause this...
-the perception soccer is an injury free /soft game...
parents love letting their kids play soccer because of this reason....
-the glamour/opportuninty of being able to represent your country amongst the best in the world..
-the option of playing in different continents - huge appealing to many..
-the money in overseas leagues is more than appealing...
-also, and this moight be a bit controversial, the failure of the AFL to encourage people with ethnic backgrounds (most countries have soccer as their number sport) to participate in the game... what i mean is the AFL needs to actively seek asians, arabs, africans(the larger ethnic minorities) and probably to a lesser extent europeans to participate in junior ranks for the long term viability of the game.... this would go a long way in minimizing the growth soccer will have on our great game in the future years... in all my years ive never seen a footy advert in second language news paper.... footy for me , in particular in multi-cultural victoria, is not relfected by this on AFL lists... im not sure if this is due to particpation levels or ability of individuals though...
i believe soccer will eventually (although i hope im wrong because OUR football is the greatest game in the world) match or surpass our great game as the numer 1 sport.....(although probably not for 20 years)
a few factors i believe that will cause this...
-the perception soccer is an injury free /soft game...
parents love letting their kids play soccer because of this reason....
-the glamour/opportuninty of being able to represent your country amongst the best in the world..
-the option of playing in different continents - huge appealing to many..
-the money in overseas leagues is more than appealing...
-also, and this moight be a bit controversial, the failure of the AFL to encourage people with ethnic backgrounds (most countries have soccer as their number sport) to participate in the game... what i mean is the AFL needs to actively seek asians, arabs, africans(the larger ethnic minorities) and probably to a lesser extent europeans to participate in junior ranks for the long term viability of the game.... this would go a long way in minimizing the growth soccer will have on our great game in the future years... in all my years ive never seen a footy advert in second language news paper.... footy for me , in particular in multi-cultural victoria, is not relfected by this on AFL lists... im not sure if this is due to particpation levels or ability of individuals though...
I think it will.
The AFL has been wrapped up in its little cocoon for decades and has squandered the opportunity to protect our code by not spreading its wings earlier. They have failed us all as a governing body of our sport.
The AFL is a big fish in a small pond and unless it starts becoming at the very least a little fish in the big pond, it will be squashed by soccer.
Forget about TV rights. They are not even peanuts compared to the NFL and FIFA.
Soccer has access to the real $$$$ and government support. The AFL needs to sell itself to the government as a legitimate sport and not a provincial abberation if it is to survive over the coming decades, something I think it is only now starting to do. But it needs to bite the bullet and do some real investment in overseas markets.
Instead they put all their eggs into the expansion basket. You'd think they'd learn. The markets they are trying to set up teams have been big on rugby for a century, yet in 2007, the two biggest losers in the ARC were the East Coast Aces, closely followed by the Western Sydney Rams. The total attendance of both wouldn't have even filled the Junction Oval. And it wants to spend all the TV rights money on these markets - why ???? And all this time there has been more organic growth in South Africa, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea and the AFL has never once thought about expanding there. The size of the Gold Coast/West Sydney market is 2.5 million. The size of these potential markets is 58 million .... go figure. So what does it do ? Promotes another sport (gaelic football) and tries to sweep matches between these countries under dim lights on a weekday at Warrnambool - go figure.
The AFL has undersold itself too long and hedged their bets on Australia neither reaching or hosting the World Cup. They've been gambling our game away and I just hope its all not too little too late.
The AFL has been wrapped up in its little cocoon for decades and has squandered the opportunity to protect our code by not spreading its wings earlier. They have failed us all as a governing body of our sport.
The AFL is a big fish in a small pond and unless it starts becoming at the very least a little fish in the big pond, it will be squashed by soccer.
Forget about TV rights. They are not even peanuts compared to the NFL and FIFA.
Soccer has access to the real $$$$ and government support. The AFL needs to sell itself to the government as a legitimate sport and not a provincial abberation if it is to survive over the coming decades, something I think it is only now starting to do. But it needs to bite the bullet and do some real investment in overseas markets.
Instead they put all their eggs into the expansion basket. You'd think they'd learn. The markets they are trying to set up teams have been big on rugby for a century, yet in 2007, the two biggest losers in the ARC were the East Coast Aces, closely followed by the Western Sydney Rams. The total attendance of both wouldn't have even filled the Junction Oval. And it wants to spend all the TV rights money on these markets - why ???? And all this time there has been more organic growth in South Africa, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea and the AFL has never once thought about expanding there. The size of the Gold Coast/West Sydney market is 2.5 million. The size of these potential markets is 58 million .... go figure. So what does it do ? Promotes another sport (gaelic football) and tries to sweep matches between these countries under dim lights on a weekday at Warrnambool - go figure.
The AFL has undersold itself too long and hedged their bets on Australia neither reaching or hosting the World Cup. They've been gambling our game away and I just hope its all not too little too late.
DoggieStyle07
Debutant
- Apr 11, 2007
- 134
- 146
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
As people have aluded to I think the growth of soccer is all about demographic shifts in Australia's population.
(The following refers to the AFL, but it similarly relates to the other traditional 'aussie' sports League, Cricket etc.)
At the moment AFL dominates amongst a key group of Australia's major demographics.
As previously mentioned, the AFL is king for the 'non ethnic' australian aged over 40 - it's all they have ever known. They grew up with the game when it was pure, suburban and at its best, and when Australia was more isolated from the world - pre global media. Fortunately for the AFL this group, which include the baby boomers, is currently the richest most influential group, with influence over mainstream media and sponsorship dollars.
The AFL also rules (and i beleive will always rule) Australia's anglo blue collar demographic. The token homogenised 'aussie' is less willing to be coverted to sports outside the standard footy, cricket or motor racing diet.
On the other hand, Soccer's major demographics are immigrants from countries who have grown up with soccer (i.e. a majority of the immigrants to australia) and persons aged under 40 who have been exposed more to the game as they have grown up and are more tuned into a globalised world. Currently these demographics have much less market power in terms of business and media interests.
Because Australia continues to take on more and more immigrants, and as the older generation are replaced by the youth, growth in the popularity of soccer is likely to continue indefinately, while 'traditional' sports such as the AFL are unlikely to have much more capacity for growth.
Soccer takes over? unlikely to happen at least until the baby boomers are gone, and even then there will still always be the traditional support for AFL.
However market forces are likely to see soccer become much more mainstream in the next 10 - 20 years. Mainstream media coverage will increase, more money will become available for A league clubs, and importantly for soccer the next generation of business leaders will be more tuned into the benefits of investing in the game in terms of global business opportunities.
Also, it is not for 10 to 15 years that Australia will start to reap the benefits in terms of playing stocks that the current grass roots reform of the sport will bring, and this can only be good for the standard of the local game.
Finally, Australians really have no way of comprehending the impact that a world cup would have on the game in this country. After attending the world cup in '06, I can tell you that an Australian world cup would make the Sydney Olympics look like a glorified Stawel Gift in terms of money, media, tourism & atmosphere that would be brought to Australia in the name of the world game.
(The following refers to the AFL, but it similarly relates to the other traditional 'aussie' sports League, Cricket etc.)
At the moment AFL dominates amongst a key group of Australia's major demographics.
As previously mentioned, the AFL is king for the 'non ethnic' australian aged over 40 - it's all they have ever known. They grew up with the game when it was pure, suburban and at its best, and when Australia was more isolated from the world - pre global media. Fortunately for the AFL this group, which include the baby boomers, is currently the richest most influential group, with influence over mainstream media and sponsorship dollars.
The AFL also rules (and i beleive will always rule) Australia's anglo blue collar demographic. The token homogenised 'aussie' is less willing to be coverted to sports outside the standard footy, cricket or motor racing diet.
On the other hand, Soccer's major demographics are immigrants from countries who have grown up with soccer (i.e. a majority of the immigrants to australia) and persons aged under 40 who have been exposed more to the game as they have grown up and are more tuned into a globalised world. Currently these demographics have much less market power in terms of business and media interests.
Because Australia continues to take on more and more immigrants, and as the older generation are replaced by the youth, growth in the popularity of soccer is likely to continue indefinately, while 'traditional' sports such as the AFL are unlikely to have much more capacity for growth.
Soccer takes over? unlikely to happen at least until the baby boomers are gone, and even then there will still always be the traditional support for AFL.
However market forces are likely to see soccer become much more mainstream in the next 10 - 20 years. Mainstream media coverage will increase, more money will become available for A league clubs, and importantly for soccer the next generation of business leaders will be more tuned into the benefits of investing in the game in terms of global business opportunities.
Also, it is not for 10 to 15 years that Australia will start to reap the benefits in terms of playing stocks that the current grass roots reform of the sport will bring, and this can only be good for the standard of the local game.
Finally, Australians really have no way of comprehending the impact that a world cup would have on the game in this country. After attending the world cup in '06, I can tell you that an Australian world cup would make the Sydney Olympics look like a glorified Stawel Gift in terms of money, media, tourism & atmosphere that would be brought to Australia in the name of the world game.
rolandproducts
Debutant
I would rather "panda" to the softies and champion a skilful game rather than pander to nostalgic bogans baying for blood.
That's not to say the attempts to engineer the game and make it faster/slower or higher/lower scoring don't hurt the game. Rather, there needs to be a distinction made between ensuring the game is safe and ensuring the game is a spectacle. The game is, after all, a spectacle of its own right and the game will evolve; in 2006 we were all flooding and in 2009 we may well all be running a rolling zone...who knows, in 2012 well may see the return of the guerrilla (panda?) stay-at-home full forward.
In the immeadiate and middle term, Soccer will never overtake AFL. What it can do, however, is take a bit of traction away from the AFL in it's two biggest growth markets, that being West Sydney and the Gold Coast.
it wont take over afl. they will be the two heavy weights of sport here.....
taking over that shit sport rugby league.
taking over that shit sport rugby league.
Macca19
Moderator
- Moderator
- #36
I cant see soccer taking over footy. I think people will find that soccer has been above aussie rules in the participation ranks for a significant time (10+ years). People think the A-league is this major seller super supported league but it isnt. The honeymoon period of the revitalised league is over and crowds are starting to dwindle already.
The only way the A-League will out grow the AFL is if something real major happens to the AFL. Maybe similar to the ARL/Super League guff or something else that would see tens of thousands of people turned off the league.
Im a huge fan of football/soccer, but in this country, it is what it is....and what it is is a secondary sport. If we get the World Cup, the A-league will thrive for a while but then go back down to where it is now.
The only way the A-League will out grow the AFL is if something real major happens to the AFL. Maybe similar to the ARL/Super League guff or something else that would see tens of thousands of people turned off the league.
Im a huge fan of football/soccer, but in this country, it is what it is....and what it is is a secondary sport. If we get the World Cup, the A-league will thrive for a while but then go back down to where it is now.
mcgarnacle
Norm Smith Medallist
- Dec 2, 2003
- 9,786
- 4,212
- AFL Club
- Sydney
although i do not agree with your view that the AFL will be taken over by the A-league in spectator popularity, i do agree with your view on the direction of the sport and the reasoning for its continued popularity.
The bottom line is, as long as the careers of the Franklin's, Judds', and Modra's are in Australia and the careers of the Kewell's, Viduka's and Cahill's are overseas, there is no way soccer will ever be bigger in Australia. And no matter how big the A-league ever becomes, they will never be able to afford the cream of Australias talent.
kaypee
All Australian
almost everything you've said here was also true 40 years ago - Australia has long been a nation of immigrants.AFL crowds continue to grow, tv rights are high. when i go to games, a fair portion of the crowd appear to me top be under 40, and probably first or second generation australians
I think people are getting a little bit carried away in terms of rating the popularity of Soccer in Australia. While I don't think it's impossible that it could overtake AFL as the number one sport, it would take a long time and a large cultural shift, especially in Melbourne.
It has enormous popularity in terms of participation, but then again so do netball and basketball, which don't rate as spectator sports in this country. Participation rates are not the be all and end all when it comes to gauging the popularity of a sport, as they are dominated by codes which are generally the most risk free and accessible to kids. I used to play Soccer and Basketball as a kid, but I have next to no interest in watching them now.
The one thing Soccer has over AFL is the international aspect, because after all Australians always get behind their international sporting teams, and especially when the competition means as much as the World Cup. However, this international factor can also be a curse, because basically all of the best locally produced talent goes straight to Europe, where there is a lot more exposure and a lot more money to be made. As such, the difference in quality between the A-league and the European leagues is striking. I don't think our local league will ever be able to compete.
And when it comes to the A-league itself, I think that interest is already starting to wane. Few of our recogniseable Socceroo players participate in it, the quality is pretty poor and it probably doesn't help that pay tv has exclusive rights to it, therefore limiting exposure. Crowds are tapering off, they were being propped up by the Victory, in any case, who seem to have lost a bit of their impact. Not only that, but it is being played in the Summer so as not to go up against the other codes, otherwise it would be completely overshadowed.
It has enormous popularity in terms of participation, but then again so do netball and basketball, which don't rate as spectator sports in this country. Participation rates are not the be all and end all when it comes to gauging the popularity of a sport, as they are dominated by codes which are generally the most risk free and accessible to kids. I used to play Soccer and Basketball as a kid, but I have next to no interest in watching them now.
The one thing Soccer has over AFL is the international aspect, because after all Australians always get behind their international sporting teams, and especially when the competition means as much as the World Cup. However, this international factor can also be a curse, because basically all of the best locally produced talent goes straight to Europe, where there is a lot more exposure and a lot more money to be made. As such, the difference in quality between the A-league and the European leagues is striking. I don't think our local league will ever be able to compete.
And when it comes to the A-league itself, I think that interest is already starting to wane. Few of our recogniseable Socceroo players participate in it, the quality is pretty poor and it probably doesn't help that pay tv has exclusive rights to it, therefore limiting exposure. Crowds are tapering off, they were being propped up by the Victory, in any case, who seem to have lost a bit of their impact. Not only that, but it is being played in the Summer so as not to go up against the other codes, otherwise it would be completely overshadowed.
WCE Forever
Debutant
No a-league match got over 10,000 fans last week
the standard of soccer in australia is still pretty low. Cannot ever see it happening...ever!
the standard of soccer in australia is still pretty low. Cannot ever see it happening...ever!
vinnie
Team Captain
If you believe that you're in a fool's paradise. John Aliosi as a soccer player earns more than any AFL player, and he's here in Australia. You also assume kids will never be inspired to be the next kewell or Swarzer b/c they are overseas? How does that work?
Remember also soccer does not equal A-league.
Instead, think of A-league as your VFL. The big league in soccer is now the socceroos, and also the Asian Champions League with $16 million prize money which you probably know very little about. The A-league is only a stepping stone to bigger things, who gives a stuff what the crowds are like.
Also, why is it forgotten that AFL crowds have fallen for all teams except the five main Melb clubs. These AFL teams get crowd numbers that are laughable: Port Adelaide, Freemantle, Sydney, kangaroos in Sydney, Melbourne. These crowds will continue to fall. If AFL is the juggernaught its supposed to be, why don't these games get over a measly 20,000?
Smyth94
Norm Smith Medallist
I think you'd find most teams average over 25,000 to their games
kaypee
All Australian
Asian Champions League is little more than a FIFA marketing tool. i love they way thy turn up the crowd mics during the coverage, and have the cameras up high so you can't see the empty sands. And the A-League, with its returning aussies and winding-down "marquis" players appears, to more of a stepping down stone than a stepping up one. as you point out, nobody with any talent would stay in the a-league if they had the choice. incidentally, has australia's highest paid footballer bothered the net yet?
Not according to this article
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/12/10/1228584908394.html
But they all earn more than the highest-paid domestic footballers, with Carlton captain Chris Judd pocketing $1.1 million to be the highest-earning Australian-based sports star.
football or soccer is the most popular sport in the world. it will keep on growing here in australia imo. i dont think we will get the 2018 wc because the big bucks in europe will get them over the line
Edward Teach
Team Captain
Lived in London for ten years, supported Chelsea, went to games, lived in area, loved it but got sick of endless comps, second string sides and the obvious money spinning of it all. Still monitor it but honestly its big but very over rated once you have done it for years. AFL is by far the better game - just needs to smarten its packaging up and ensure it stays a tough game.
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