Will Soccer ever take over AFL?

[tugga]

Gee, another 'soccer vs football' thread, especially in an 'Australian Football forum'. These throw up always new points of views that we have never heard before!

Sorry for being a bit sarcastic.

OK my opinion (as a big soccer fan) is this.

In football states (Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania, Northern Territory and Western Australia) Australian Football will remain the dominant code. It is part and parcel of Australian culture and tradition.

However there will be more bicodalism (which is good) that is more fans will follow both Australian Rules Football and Soccer than before. Bicodalism is evident in younger people where they saw soccer on SBS, or played it at school etc.

I have noticed that amongst people of my age (ie 45+) very few (especially those with a English Speaking Background who were born in Australia) who are Australian Rules fans are interested in soccer, while I met quite a few Melbourne Victory fans below 30 years of age that are also very passionate AFL supporters.

The Melbourne Victory forum has a thread for each Victorian AFL team where lively debate is always occurring. Often Melbourne Victory fans who support different teams go together to an AFL match if their teams are playing each other.

The other question is regarding 'new territories'. That is a different question. My belief is that and AFL team will do better in the Gold Coast than an A-League one, while an A-League team will do better than an AFL team in Western Sydney. It depends on the culture of the place. So that situation is more fluid than Australian Rules states.

So have no fear AFL fans. Soccer will not 'take over'. However it will become more prominent in the Australian sporting landscape.

There will be committed soccer fans (which can also follow AFL) and there will always be a group of sport fans that will follow the Australian National team when it plays (especially if hopefully we make the world cup) the same way as many follow the Wallabies or athletes during the Olympics.

I do feel a bit annoyed when some commentators (ie Martin Flanagan) sometime write about soccer as an evil jaggernaut taking over our indigenous sport. This attitude motivate anti-soccer commentary in the media which are totally unncecessary. Relax. There will be space for everyone.

Good post and I agree with it.
But I think nowadays with overseas travel becoming so accessible to most budgets and the relatively recent (say, in the last 10 or 15 years) phenomenon of young people travelling to Europe on a working holiday visa (or perhaps even have an EU passport), football (soccer) is being exposed to a far younger generation these days.
I did the work-live thing in the UK in the 90s and previously hated soccer. But you immerse yourself in the local culture and you expose yourself to different things. Then you bring it back home. Nowadays I'm as pasionate a football (soccer) fan as there is.
The point I'm trying to make, is that soccer is no longer a sport that solely caters for immigrants. Sure, immigrants continue to support the game when they arrive here, but now there's a whole new generation of people following the game because world travel is cheaper and easier than ever before and Pay TV has it in abundance. It is just so much more accessible and with easier access, comes increased first-hand exposure.
All the young blokes at my footy and cricket club have their EPL teams that they support and their knowledge extends to more than just Man U and Arsenal. They know the game inside out, but they're also just as keen on AFL.
The world has gotten smaller in the past 10 or years. Soccer will continue to grow here.
Will it outgrow footy? Maybe. If it does, it will take a long time. But anyone who thinks soccer won't go distance here is delusional.

 

[3kzisfootball]

almost everything you've said here was also true 40 years ago - Australia has long been a nation of immigrants.AFL crowds continue to grow, tv rights are high. when i go to games, a fair portion of the crowd appear to me top be under 40, and probably first or second generation australians

Yes but

• 40 years ago there was more of an assimilationist culture which encouraged more NESB (Non English Speaking Background) young people to get into Australian Football (Cazaly, Jesaulenko, Silvagni, etc.)
• As I said before I believe that many of those under 40 people who go to AFL matches may follow soccer as well.

 

[pepsi]

I think it will. Not sure how long it will take, but it will eventually. But then how will you judge it? Is is in participation numbers? Because soccer is already winning that war. Is it in revenue and expenditure? Is it how much the average wage for each code? Is it FTA TV coverage. Crowd numbers? Because the AFL is way ahead in those figures.

I think we will continually make world cups and that can only continue to build the sport. The society we live in is changing rapidly and the number of caucasians will one day be the minority instead of the majority. I would hope AFL stays as #1 forever, but I don't know if it will.

 

[Bomberlicious]

Instead, think of A-league as your VFL. The big league in soccer is now the socceroos, and also the Asian Champions League with $16 million prize money which you probably know very little about. The A-league is only a stepping stone to bigger things, who gives a stuff what the crowds are like.

A-League clubs compete in the Asian Champions League, therefore they are competing at your proposed highest level.

If the Socceroos are the equivalent of the AFL, that's only 11 spots up for grabs as compared to 352 in the AFL.

The A-League has positioned itself nicely as a summer sport, attracting AFL supporters & only really competing with the cricket. I think a move to winter would be disasterous, especially given the lull that occurs between World Cups (like at the moment with crowd numbers).

I think AFL is safe in this country, & as another poster said, I won't see it toppled in my lifetime.

 

[DoggieStyle07]

Not according to this article

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/12/10/1228584908394.html

But they all earn more than the highest-paid domestic footballers, with Carlton captain Chris Judd pocketing $1.1 million to be the highest-earning Australian-based sports star.

Aloisi only signed with Sydney mid way through this year which would have distorted his 2008 earnings..

+ so far he is earning $700,000 per goal for Sydney FC good money if you can get it!

 

[Dasher39]

Also, I'll add this.

Whilst crowds are down in the A-League this season, to date Fox Sports ratings are up 7%. So there is still growing interest in the game, people are just not attending it as they were in previous seasons. Perhaps the economic crisis is having an affect.

 

[3kzisfootball]

Another thing about A-League crowds.

A decrease was always on the cards. I was astounded at the number of people attending in season 2 when I went to Telstra Dome to watch Melbourne Victory and I told myself 'this won't last'.

I think Danny Allsop hit the nail on the head when he said that the league enjoyed such a quick, and unexpected, boom that crowds really went beyond all prediction so quickly and perhaps people started getting ahead of themselves with expectations.

So I think that the decrease is not a 'basketball type' permanent decline, but a readjustment to a more realistic sustainable attendance number.

Which as I stated before will never challenge AFL ones in AFL states. But then again the AFL popularity (especially in Melbourne) is a phenomenon unique in the world.

So the answer is no. Soccer will not overtake football in Australia. However it will grow and will become a prominent part of Australia's sporting landscape instead of that basket case that it was ten years ago. Not the major code, but an important one nevertheless.

 

[InformedOpinion]

As people have aluded to I think the growth of soccer is all about demographic shifts in Australia's population.

(The following refers to the AFL, but it similarly relates to the other traditional 'aussie' sports League, Cricket etc.)

At the moment AFL dominates amongst a key group of Australia's major demographics.

As previously mentioned, the AFL is king for the 'non ethnic' australian aged over 40 - it's all they have ever known. They grew up with the game when it was pure, suburban and at its best, and when Australia was more isolated from the world - pre global media. Fortunately for the AFL this group, which include the baby boomers, is currently the richest most influential group, with influence over mainstream media and sponsorship dollars.

The AFL also rules (and i beleive will always rule) Australia's anglo blue collar demographic. The token homogenised 'aussie' is less willing to be coverted to sports outside the standard footy, cricket or motor racing diet.

On the other hand, Soccer's major demographics are immigrants from countries who have grown up with soccer (i.e. a majority of the immigrants to australia) and persons aged under 40 who have been exposed more to the game as they have grown up and are more tuned into a globalised world. Currently these demographics have much less market power in terms of business and media interests.
...

Mate, quite seriously, with those out-dated thoughts, you need to get out of Melbourne once in a while and really understand the national sporting market.

 

[DoggieStyle07]

Mate, quite seriously, with those out-dated thoughts, you need to get out of Melbourne once in a while and really understand the national sporting market.

I realise that the demographics i have used to make my point are quite stereotypical, but could you please explain which aspect is outdated?

 

[vinnie]

Those who quote A-league crowds as the barometer of soccer's capabilities are totally deluded.

At so many levels AFL can't compete with the coverage of soccer. Adelaide united got billions (if not many millions) around the world watching the Asian Champions League. And coverage equal's sponsorship money. How many viewers does the AFL grand final get.

But think about growth. how on earth can the AFL grow its viewing base? It's already got all the viewers its gonna get. It will be a slow grinding increase, if at all. Meanwhile, soccer's viewing public is on a totally different dimension. many millions will see mariners and Jets play in the Champions league next year, then the year after probably Victory and Adelaide again. So it goes again. Prizemoney so much bigger than the AFL can pay out.

 

[jackmac7]

If you believe that you're in a fool's paradise. John Aliosi as a soccer player earns more than any AFL player, and he's here in Australia. You also assume kids will never be inspired to be the next kewell or Swarzer b/c they are overseas? How does that work?

Remember also soccer does not equal A-league.

Instead, think of A-league as your VFL. The big league in soccer is now the socceroos, and also the Asian Champions League with $16 million prize money which you probably know very little about. The A-league is only a stepping stone to bigger things, who gives a stuff what the crowds are like.

Also, why is it forgotten that AFL crowds have fallen for all teams except the five main Melb clubs. These AFL teams get crowd numbers that are laughable: Port Adelaide, Freemantle, Sydney, kangaroos in Sydney, Melbourne. These crowds will continue to fall. If AFL is the juggernaught its supposed to be, why don't these games get over a measly 20,000?

John Aloisi is yesterday's hero mate.

The guy has slotted one goal all year and hasn't earnt his cheque or your praises............

 

[richskee]

Soccer is a sleeping giant, if we host the World Cup it will wake the giant up and will never sleep again!

 

[Hoops]

Aloisi only signed with Sydney mid way through this year which would have distorted his 2008 earnings..

+ so far he is earning $700,000 per goal for Sydney FC good money if you can get it!

I don't think Buddys on that

Anyway I would of thought Ricky Ponting would be earning more than that

 

[aaronm46]

it depends of the quality and excitement of both codes

 

[WA ROO]

Soccer is a sleeping giant, if we host the World Cup it will wake the giant up and will never sleep again!

Never going to happen.Blatter and the rest of the FIFA fraudsters will pocket as much of the 30+ mil they can and then laugh.

 

[A Living God]

Another thing about A-League crowds.

A decrease was always on the cards. I was astounded at the number of people attending in season 2 when I went to Telstra Dome to watch Melbourne Victory and I told myself 'this won't last'.

The problem is not that Melbourne Victory crowds are down. Their crowds doubled between the first and second season so seeing the number slide is only to be expected. The problem is that the attendance for the teams from all the other major cities are not only below last years crowds but where they were in 05/06.

 

[mustapha]

Another thing about A-League crowds.

A decrease was always on the cards. I was astounded at the number of people attending in season 2 when I went to Telstra Dome to watch Melbourne Victory and I told myself 'this won't last'.

I think Danny Allsop hit the nail on the head when he said that the league enjoyed such a quick, and unexpected, boom that crowds really went beyond all prediction so quickly and perhaps people started getting ahead of themselves with expectations.

So I think that the decrease is not a 'basketball type' permanent decline, but a readjustment to a more realistic sustainable attendance number.

Which as I stated before will never challenge AFL ones in AFL states. But then again the AFL popularity (especially in Melbourne) is a phenomenon unique in the world.

So the answer is no. Soccer will not overtake football in Australia. However it will grow and will become a prominent part of Australia's sporting landscape instead of that basket case that it was ten years ago. Not the major code, but an important one nevertheless.

The A League has also become a bit stale this year. With only 8 teams in the competition this was always going to happen. Big games eg. Melbourne vs Sydney are not so big when they happen every 7 weeks. This will change next year with the expansion teams.

The J League (Japan) actually experienced a similar crowd drop after the early boom years. The crowds then gradually increased.

 

[that_dood]

Also, why is it forgotten that AFL crowds have fallen for all teams except the five main Melb clubs. These AFL teams get crowd numbers that are laughable: Port Adelaide, Freemantle, Sydney, kangaroos in Sydney, Melbourne. These crowds will continue to fall. If AFL is the juggernaught its supposed to be, why don't these games get over a measly 20,000?

Other than Port Adelaide and Melbourne, Fremantle average around 35,000, Sydney average over 30,000, and North Melbourne had a record number of members and would have had an increase in crowd numbers (I don't know what they were).

The AFL is going along as it has been this whole decade. It is about at the peak of it's interest but that is not a bad thing because it is by far the most popular sport in Australia.

Soccer is growing in interest and one day it may be up at the levels of popularity as the AFL is today. But Aussie Rules is always king in Australia because it is unique to our country and as such will always be popular. Soccer could come up behind it and be popular but it won't ever overtake Aussie Rules.

To the people who say the A-League is on the slide, just because the crowds are down does not mean the league is on the way down. Just turn up to a game and see the increase in quality. I have been to the last 6 or 7 Glory home games and the quality in football is on the up. Just see some of the goals scored this weekend gone. Ratings on Fox have increased this season and with the two new teams next year hopefully the crows come back.

 

[jackmac7]

Does anyone else think the A-league will turn into the new Rugby League with armchair supporters with what we are seeing in recent A-league trends?

I think the A-league will follow the MLS and stagnate year after year with no real growth. The same argument took place over there when America held the WC in 94', it had zero impact on their major codes.

The A-league resembles more a superannuation tour for retirees than anything. Can you honestly imagine that taking over RL let alone AFL?

Socceroos will go from strength to strength and good on em'. I hope we get the WC, even if not for the sporting experience but I'm told it's a massive festival like atmosphere and a big piss-up.

I want to watch sport and watch the best of the best. Thats why I stopped going to the NBL all those years ago because I woke up to myself and realized I was wasting my money watching dud basketballers who were not good enough for the states.

I mean the NBL had a crowd of nearly 10k a few weeks ago and the last 2 weeks not 1 A-league game has cracked 10k. This is an Indoor sport thats in the pits showing up the A-league. Last weeks crowd aggregate for A-league round was 30,087.

It's just not NBA, I say................

My point is Soccer in this country to be really successful needs a strong domestic league and that aint ever gonna happen from where I sit. As the guy on SEN said they need a big TV rights deal and the A-league is hardly going to match NRL and AFL dollars the way it's heading even with the occaisional socceroos games each year. Also Media has too much control.

 

[jackmac7]

I thought FIFA's WC requirements were pretty tough anyway.

Is it true they don't like the oval shaped stadiums because it looks bad on TV?

The AFL are Clever. They will assure they get plenty of $$$$ and some quality stadiums that will be more suited to AFL and cricket post WC in a deal.

I can't see the Govermant spending hundreds of millions on a rectangle stadium in Perth that will only be occupied by the hapless Perth Glory and their dedicated 5,000 fans.

 

[Primetime Pricey]

John Aloisi is yesterday's hero mate.

The guy has slotted one goal all year and hasn't earnt his cheque or your praises............

really? he set up both Sydney's goals on the weekend. Assisting a goal is as good as scoring it.
Aloisi is the best striker in the comp, dont be fooled by the lack of goals he has scored. He has had a hand in a few of them and Sydney's midfiled has been very ordinary, service deplorable.

Soccer won't overtake AFL but can get very close as long as its marketed right and the standard improves.

 

[jackmac7]

Who's going to hold up soccer in Australia when Lowy dies?

He forks out a crap load of money for the game here but he's 80 and can't do it forever. Fair bit of pressure on Buckley to perform by himself post Lowy.

 

[jackmac7]

really? he set up both Sydney's goals on the weekend. Assisting a goal is as good as scoring it.
Aloisi is the best striker in the comp, dont be fooled by the lack of goals he has scored. He has had a hand in a few of them and Sydney's midfiled has been very ordinary, service deplorable.

Soccer won't overtake AFL but can get very close as long as its marketed right and the standard improves.

Well if he were in Europe and he was a top striker on top dollar and he had only bagged 1 all year he would probably be jeered and run out of town by now.

 

[kaypee]

Yes but

• 40 years ago there was more of an assimilationist culture which encouraged more NESB (Non English Speaking Background) young people to get into Australian Football (Cazaly, Jesaulenko, Silvagni, etc.)
• As I said before I believe that many of those under 40 people who go to AFL matches may follow soccer as well.

how is australia now a less assimilant society: rodan, houli, veszpremi etc?

 

[Primetime Pricey]

Well if he were in Europe and he was a top striker on top dollar and he had only bagged 1 all year he would probably be jeered and run out of town by now.

its a tough comparison.
i know in the UK if ur not scoring but ur putting in and trying or at least setting up goals then its all good but as soon as u pull out of a chance and stuff like that, u may as well leave. Also take into consideration the talent u r playing with over there is a lot better then here, this would mean better service and more opportunities to score.
I think he has had injuries and the team have been crap so he wont ping in too many.