Will Soccer ever take over AFL?

[WhoAteAllThePies]

Pretty good post actually.

I agree with most of what you said. I recently got back from the States and "foreign" sports aren't reported in the news at all. The interest level in soccer is almost zilch in terms of attendances, funding etc.


When I was in LA - they were getting 90,000 people for a college football match (USC vs Notre Dame). It is massive. College football is massive, NFL is massive, basketball is massive, baseball is massive.


Unlike Australia, they have kept calling their sport football and not bowed to brown nose people from overseas.

The US is a special case, as per usual. Every sport bar football (gridiron) seems vulnerable at times (measured by nationwide levels of interest). At the minute it is Basketball.

The fact that soccer isn't reported in the media doesn't reflect the fact that the game gains traction with the massive amounts of Latin immigration. The media will ignore it until it can't any longer (sound familiar?)

And funnily enough there is money for almost any sport you care to name in the US. Witness the recent 20-20 tournament won by the Windies and the oft mooted cricket leagues not being short of a sponsors quid.

So I think you can keep telling yourselves it'll never happen, but it won't prevent the subtle shifts happening. The open minded will have nothing to fear, and anyways, the AFL isn't going anywhere.

 

[Geoffa32]

I personally prefer Aussie Rules over Soccer, but enjoy Soccer in the Summer, where cricket used to take precedence.

I can see it catching up to Aussie Rules when the ten year olds of today are in their mid 20s. They will be the first to grow up with an A League team, and can see a local side playing the sport they play at an elite level. Soccer is played by more kids than Aussie Rules. It will be interesting to see how many ten year olds in 2008 give up soccer for Footy in 2013? With a clearer career path (A League Youth) it may be different to how it is now.

I know we had the NSL, but that was never FIFA sanctioned. A- League is. FIFA has a mandate to be the number one sport in any market it goes into. True it will fail in the US. But our Aussie Rules is like Handball. A regional sport, that is number one in the region. In the early 90s European Handball was huge in Scandinavian countires, bigger than AFL is here with a much bigger market. FIFA sanction leagues in those countries and is now the number one sport.

Noone has the definitive answer. But to be ignorant of the threat of Soccer could be to our games detriment. The AFL are hell bent on setting up teams in GC and WS, yet are spending less on junior development in the established states. Whilst soccer is prospering at junior levels.

 

[realfootball]

Depending on what is meant by 'take over', I don't really think it's a case of 'if, but 'when'.

Importantly what are the important parameters we are measuring? The last time i looked at the ausport stats, partipation rates for soccer was highest for junior and senior players. Although some may convert to other codes, overall, interest in playing doesn't appear wane the older one gets. Soccer dominates.

I would think a very important parameter is 'interest'. After all, how many people likes these sports? Interestingly, according to the last couple of sweeney reports, (even if the some people say the data is questionable), soccer is only marginally pipped by AFL, both codes way ahead of the rugby codes.

I'm unsure what the results of the poll was, but i'm surprised that in the heartland of AFL, on a melbourne network, still 50% of people (at least somewhere throughout the timeframe of that poll), thought soccer would take over AFL.

Couple of other points, AFL, although big in the southern states, is still very much struggling in my town of Sydney, and that is despite the attempts of the full weight of the marketing machine and certain elements of the media to promote the game to death. Conversly and astonishingly, despite no FTA TV and certain elements in the media doing everything to silence soccer, the A-league has certainly gone well, even if crowds are down a little this year. Like the J-league before it, the 4th year of a new comp is always a tough one. Make no mistake about it, soccer has very powerful corporate friends now in Australia.

The argument that the game locally won't ever be big just doesn't gel with me. There is no evidence as far as I can see that you need to have the best players in the world to have have a thriving, well supported domestic competition. Virtually every other country has the same problem, domestic players moving to england, spain, and Italy. What is needed is a reasonable standard yes, but also a well oiled marketing machine and sponsorship dollars. You also importantly need culture, and that takes time to build. It is amazing really the club culture that has developed so quickly in the A-league to date.

The global aspect of the game, is an appeal, even if some AFL fans 'don't care'. It is an asset to the game that will continue to draw fans in, competing in, other than the olympics, the only true great global competition. It will continue to make the game, 'important'.

I can only see soccer (OK football), going well. It already is big, and if we look down the track in 50 years time, i'm quietly confident it will be at least equally at the top of the sporting culture in Australia, especially in the northern states.

 

[speedpeck23]

As long as it remains a summer sport in Australia it will never take over AFL. If it goes head to head with AFL in winter it will also struggle. Participation rates at junior level are always high in soccer because its such a simple game for little kids to play......which is one of its great advantages over AFL. As a spectator sport it will struggle to rival AFL at club level.

 

[Chuq]

I love the argument that soccer is great because it's the most popular game in the world.

I love how people claim that that argument is valid when they say AFL is great because it's the most popular game in part of Australia, but then claim the same argument is invalid when people state soccer is the most popular game in the world.

 

[kaypee]

Depending on what is meant by 'take over', I don't really think it's a case of 'if, but 'when'.

Importantly what are the important parameters we are measuring? The last time i looked at the ausport stats, partipation rates for soccer was highest for junior and senior players. Although some may convert to other codes, overall, interest in playing doesn't appear wane the older one gets. Soccer dominates.

I would think a very important parameter is 'interest'. After all, how many people likes these sports? Interestingly, according to the last couple of sweeney reports, (even if the some people say the data is questionable), soccer is only marginally pipped by AFL, both codes way ahead of the rugby codes.

I'm unsure what the results of the poll was, but i'm surprised that in the heartland of AFL, on a melbourne network, still 50% of people (at least somewhere throughout the timeframe of that poll), thought soccer would take over AFL.

Couple of other points, AFL, although big in the southern states, is still very much struggling in my town of Sydney, and that is despite the attempts of the full weight of the marketing machine and certain elements of the media to promote the game to death. Conversly and astonishingly, despite no FTA TV and certain elements in the media doing everything to silence soccer, the A-league has certainly gone well, even if crowds are down a little this year. Like the J-league before it, the 4th year of a new comp is always a tough one. Make no mistake about it, soccer has very powerful corporate friends now in Australia.

The argument that the game locally won't ever be big just doesn't gel with me. There is no evidence as far as I can see that you need to have the best players in the world to have have a thriving, well supported domestic competition. Virtually every other country has the same problem, domestic players moving to england, spain, and Italy. What is needed is a reasonable standard yes, but also a well oiled marketing machine and sponsorship dollars. You also importantly need culture, and that takes time to build. It is amazing really the club culture that has developed so quickly in the A-league to date.

The global aspect of the game, is an appeal, even if some AFL fans 'don't care'. It is an asset to the game that will continue to draw fans in, competing in, other than the olympics, the only true great global competition. It will continue to make the game, 'important'.

I can only see soccer (OK football), going well. It already is big, and if we look down the track in 50 years time, i'm quietly confident it will be at least equally at the top of the sporting culture in Australia, especially in the northern states.

crowds down a little for Sydney A-league games? they're barely pulling more than the old NSL clubs. and why is the fourth year of a comp "always a tougth one". Other countries do not have the same problem as the a-league in terms of players leaving: australia has three other football codes where punters can watch the cream of those sports, most countries simply don't have the choice (and when they do, soccer is a poor cousin).
i'm more than happy for soccer to have high participation rates: it's unlikely to translate to professional soccer's dominance, and might teach those who swap to footy to kick off both feet. my kids all play soccer and pay no attention at all to the a-league.
i reckon the sporting landscape won't change all that much: afl, then league, the union and soccer, no matter how much its boosters keep claiming it "has arrived".

 

[Chuq]

The OP was "will soccer ever take over AFL?" - I'm pretty sure it's just referring to Australia.

And a nil all game is boring, no two ways about it. 90+ minutes and not one team scores? I really like watching soccer, but 0-0 scorelines bore me shitless.

And yet many people here will watch a test cricket match which lasts for five days and which ends in a draw - and call it a great match.

 

[windyhill]

I`ve followed Arsenal nearly as long as I`ve followed Essendon. I`ve played both sports. Soccer is on a par with Oz Rules to play, that is to play, but when it comes to watching, Oz rules leaves it for dead.

 

[Lockyer24]

Not in Australia. The best AFL players play here, the 1000000000th best soccer players play here. Still good sport though to get behind in summer months.

 

[harmesy 37]

The US is a special case, as per usual. Every sport bar football (gridiron) seems vulnerable at times (measured by nationwide levels of interest). At the minute it is Basketball.

The fact that soccer isn't reported in the media doesn't reflect the fact that the game gains traction with the massive amounts of Latin immigration. The media will ignore it until it can't any longer (sound familiar?)

And funnily enough there is money for almost any sport you care to name in the US. Witness the recent 20-20 tournament won by the Windies and the oft mooted cricket leagues not being short of a sponsors quid.

So I think you can keep telling yourselves it'll never happen, but it won't prevent the subtle shifts happening. The open minded will have nothing to fear, and anyways, the AFL isn't going anywhere.

Have you been to the States?


I have been there about 5 times and I can tell you that soccer has no traction as an alternative to American Football.


Sure it has a lot of people that play it over there, but they don't take it seriously as an alternative to American Football, as American Football is part of their culture. It (NFL) is intrinsic to their culture. It is difficult to explain unless you have been there and met Americans.



Soccer has high participation in America - but it wouldn't matter if it gained more "traction" in the media, as the game is viewed as a sideshow to Americans.


By the way, I quite like American Football and admire it for at least having athletes that are required to run (the running backs and wide receivers).

 

[Guus_Hiddink]

our great game will expand internationally.

Well I laughed...

 

[SlickAs]

There is no question that something fundemental has changed in Australia with regards to soccer since we made the World Cup. Those that are saying that the game has been here for 40 years and has not made any inroads miss the point. To me the changes are 2 fold:

1) Soccer has "converted" many Anglo Australians. (I dont mean from AFL, I mean that they now enjoy it). This simply did not happen in the 80's and before. It co-incides with an Australian team that represents us ALL doing us proud in the 2006 World Cup, as well as having a vehicle, the A-league that we can watch without the bitter pill that we used to have to swallow if we wanted to watch the local soccer of having to play against "Melbourne Croatia" or "South Melbourne Hellas". That is why we didn't follow it. And our parents didn't. While those "wogs vs. skips" games may have been appealing to the Greeks, etc, how excited can Anglo Australians get about "beating the Croatians"? Or "the Greeks beat us this afternoon, but we'll get 'em next time". It was foul and stinks to high heaven. No Anglo is going to support that. The NSL with its ethnic clubs was holding the game down and actively pushing away "the mainstream".

It is simply not "wogball" any longer. The posters that talk about demographic shifts and blah, blah, blah are missing the point that the growth is coming from Anglo Australian converts, not demographic shifts are growning the game. Australia, and soccer in Australia is not like that anymore. Go to a Socceroos game, and most of the crowd are Anglo families with their gang of 8 - 12 year olds is tow. It is such a family atmosphere that you can not swear or some soccer mum will whip her head around and glare at you.

2) There is a hero system in place now that did not used to be there. Little boys worship Harry Kewell as much as they do Ricky Ponting. That wasn't the way when I grew up.

See, soccer used to have its participants that still traded Footy Cards in the school grounds at recess. So they played soccer, but there were no soccer heros to aspire to be. There were no Kewells, Cahills, Vidukas, Aloisis. There were no Australians making millions in Europe. There was no well worn track of a professional career. A Dad could not say to his son that "Mark Viduka played juniors over in St Albans, then moved onto the Knights in Sunshine. He made the jump to Europe once he became an adult, and then played at Celtic in Scotland before moving to Leeds along with Harry Kewell, and the 2 Aussie boys tore Europe a new ar5e-hole and took Leeds to the finals in the European Champions league, etc." Back in the 80's kids did not have that, and a Dad was more likely to tell his son that it was a game of "Sheila's, wogs, and ****ters".

These things have changed. You combine that with the rise of the internet and cable television, and the world is just so different that we need to look at soccer as an entirely different beast to how we used to. Now we drink coffee from Kenya, eat Japanese sushi in hand-rolls sold on near every corner, eat salads with pine nuts and rocket instead of just ice-berg lettuce, can watch little clips from all over the world on youtube, can chat on-line with people in any number of countries, and know the difference between a Shiraz and a Cab Sav. There is room there for an appitite for global association football.

Soccer wont be overtaking Aussie Rules in the hearts of Melbournians any time soon, but it is not an either / or question. We could always follow Aussie Rules AND Cricket AND Tennis, it is the same with soccer.

 

[JoeHawk]

Soccer will never take over as long as it remains on pay TV.

Although I love my footy, I'd would be happy to watch it as a summer sport on free to air, because cricket is losing me with all the constant crap going on and that 20/20 bullshit.

 

[STC]

Soccer will probably take over in terms of participation, but it's unlikely to become the number one water-cooler sport. the a-league is already stagnating, even if its media boosters can't see it. look to the united states: soccer was to take over there after they hosted the world cup, and then beckham was meant to give the sport a shot in the arm. soccer there is still a curiosity. soccer is likely to be more successful here, if only because the sporting landscape is already split by the football/ league divide. that said, the a-league really doesn't float my boat

Soccer is already ahead of AFL in terms of participation mate. It's just easier to pick up really, AFL is a lot more complicated with the rules and the skills and a lot of foreigners play it.

Will soccer ever take over? Probably not, but it will almost certainly emerge as a serious contender. However, when you consider what's going on with the NBL right now, and the NRL's attendances way down at the moment, anything could happen.

 

[CamryCows]

I can only watch at best 6 of 8 AFL matches live yet last weekend I could watch all 10 English Premier League games live (via the magic red button at times).

There is only one sporting event that would (and already has) attract tens of thousands of people to Federation Square/Adelaide Oval at 3am in the morning to watch it.

AFL and Soccer isn't for everyone (as is equestrian or synchronised swimming) but those who follow any sport can be very passionate about it as is evident in this thread.

I am led to believe the AFL is currently ranked the 4th national sporting competiton in the world for regular season crowd attendances behind the NFL, English Premier League and the German Bundesliga. Not bad!!

There is a place for both and neither will die off.

Come on Adelaide United in the World Club Championship, where the winner of this match alone wins $1.5million.

 

[eldorado]

When you have eaten chocolate why the hell would you go for boiled lollies?

Sokah runs a distant second as a spectator sport and will never surpass AFL here and our great game will expand internationally.

You are the greatest flog on this thread.

AFL will take over the world...Sokkah would have never existed if they had known of Aussie Rules...AFL will expand internationally.

You are every bit as much of a knob as those saying soccer will take over in 20 years.

You may have guessed that I am a fan of both -if you look at my profile anyway- but apart from that, I have the benefit of being reasonably intelligent.

No, soccer will not take over, but it will gradually gain a solid foothold, as those with this strange phobia towards it die out, and those without such prejudice are willing to see it for what it is; a different, but just as enjoyable, passionately followed sport.

This 'not enough goals' argument is for simpletons. If numbers were in themselves interesting, a draw at Calcutta, with both teams scoring 5-600+, would be hugely exciting..."Look at all those runs! 1200 of them!"

What makes the excitement in soccer is the thrill in every goalmouth scramble, free kick near the goal...every threat of a goal, because of their rarity, has hearts in mouths, and, as someone wiser than me once said "Goals are the orgasms of football".

So 0-0 can be enthralling, or dull. Just as an AFL game with over 40 goals kicked can be enthralling or dull. Numbers do not make excitement; the contest, play and closeness of the result does.

 

[finders]

Soccer will never take over as #1 Football code in Australia.For starters it is not exciting enough and it is seen by most Aussies as a foreign game.
This latest attempt is starting to go the way of all the other failed "national" soccer leagues in the past.

The A League crowds this season apart from Melbourne Victory are very poor (if you dont believe me tune into foxtel the TV dosent lie!)for the supposed "World Game" and take away the millions being pumped in by the gulliable Federal government and moneybags Lowey and they would be totally bankrupt.
Most of the ethnic kids that play the game give it away by the time they are 18 and any that are good enough go OS to make money = not a great way to develop a strong local game.

 

[kaypee]

Soccer is already ahead of AFL in terms of participation mate. It's just easier to pick up really, AFL is a lot more complicated with the rules and the skills and a lot of foreigners play it.

Will soccer ever take over? Probably not, but it will almost certainly emerge as a serious contender. However, when you consider what's going on with the NBL right now, and the NRL's attendances way down at the moment, anything could happen.

so we agree then

 

[Geoffa32]

This 'not enough goals' argument is for simpletons. If numbers were in themselves interesting, a draw at Calcutta, with both teams scoring 5-600+, would be hugely exciting..."Look at all those runs! 1200 of them!"

What makes the excitement in soccer is the thrill in every goalmouth scramble, free kick near the goal...every threat of a goal, because of their rarity, has hearts in mouths, and, as someone wiser than me once said "Goals are the orgasms of football".

So 0-0 can be enthralling, or dull. Just as an AFL game with over 40 goals kicked can be enthralling or dull. Numbers do not make excitement; the contest, play and closeness of the result does.

But remember the only exciting thing about Aussie Rules is scoring goals. Marks, kicks, bumps and tackles are boring..........

 

[Chuq]

Soccer will never take over as #1 Football code in Australia.For starters it is not exciting enough and it is seen by most Aussies as a foreign game.

I'm pretty sure only the bogan Aussies think that.

This latest attempt is starting to go the way of all the other failed "national" soccer leagues in the past.

All the other? Which other ones, apart from the NSL?

Are you familiar with the Crawford Report and the structural changes to the game that occurred during its implementation? Are you aware of the impact of the change from the OFC to the AFC?

The A League crowds this season apart from Melbourne Victory are very poor

Holy shit. I just found an actual fact in your post! What were the AFLs crowds like in their fourth year?

(if you dont believe me tune into foxtel the TV dosent lie!)for the supposed "World Game"

Can you explain how low domestic league crowds means that it is somehow not the "World Game"?

and take away the millions being pumped in by the gulliable Federal government and moneybags Lowey and they would be totally bankrupt.

First of all, about the "gullible" federal government - why would they give the AFL money? Is the AFL struggling? The code is only taken seriously in half of one country - what can the AFL do for the country? Hosting the FIFA World Cup on the other hand, however, is a possible $5b+ windfall, and limitless overseas promotion possibilities.

Considering that the FFA had a revenue of $84m last year and an overall profit of $1m - this is before counting the $16m contribution for women's football and the $45m cost of bidding for the WC - and Lowy has contributed very little himself - how do you explain them being bankrupt? Don't forget the finances in world football run on a four year cycle, and this being an non-World Cup year will be one of their lowest earning.

Most of the ethnic kids that play the game give it away by the time they are 18 and any that are good enough go OS to make money = not a great way to develop a strong local game.

Ignoring the strange emphasis on "ethnic kids" - I'm not sure why all kids wouldn't be included - they do this because soccer basically didn't have the visibility until recently - they didn't have those role models on TV all the time - they didn't see the Socceroos play (because they only played one game of note in the country every four years). Now they are playing 14-18 qualifying matches for each World Cup (half of which are within Australia), in addition to Asian Cup qualifiers and various high profile friendlies, instead of just the Solomon Islands and Fiji all the time.

Considering how our $2m salary capped Adelaide United defeated a $30m salary capped Kashima Antlers earlier this year, then proceeded to defeat Bunyodkor (including Brazilian World Cup winning striker Rivaldo and coach Zico) I don't think that says anything bad about our local players at all. The better ones will always go overseas, but I think now that we have the recently launched National Youth League, as well as under-14 national team, it will bridge the gap between youth and professional.

I just realised how much time I wasted writing this in response to a bogan racist troll post - but hopefully other readers out there will be able to understand all the big words.

 

[medusala]

Oh yes, and which countries might they be?

Singapore and India for starters.

 

[TigersBoy]

Ill give you an example of what I did to show a few 1 eyed AFL fans that soccer isnt boring.
I bought them tickets to sit with me at the 2007 semi-final, Melbourne vs Adelaide (winner to win home gf and play in gf). Off we went to Telstra Dome sat in the South End (Locket End) and got right into the singing. The scores looked at 1-1 with only a min remaining, Adelaide would go through on away goal rule. Melbourne had a free-kick which would be the last kick of the game. soon as that ball left the ground silence hit the dome, you could hear a pin drop, people with scarfs over there faces, hands covering there mouths, 47,000 fans hopeing, then when it hit the back of the net, the wall of sound that erupted throughout the dome I have never witnessed before. The emotions, people huging randomes, people sharing the moment with complete strangers. The fact that one goal can meen so much. The roar of the crowd and the reactions from people is so different in soccer cause it means so much and cause there not easy to get. My mates loved it and have been to every Victory game since even traveled interstate to see them play with me.
The fact is, its a different game, the emotions are different, the play is different, the atmosphere is different. You dont realy take soccer for what it is till youve been to a match. Yes A-League crowds are down, but theyll rise again when more teams come into the action and when the Victory move back to Olympic Park, that new bubble will be rocking!
Soccer wont overtake footy in my lifetime, but it will overtake NRL. AFL has nothing to worry about as there slowly relising. Its played in summer the AFL off season. Both codes can work together like we are seeing with the world cup bid. 1 eyed AFL fans will die off, and youll see a lot of them following the sport in the future. Just go to a game and youll see where im coming from.
Hope you get where im coming from.

 

[robaba]

This foreign game will never gain a soccerhold in this country. Too pansy and boring.

 

[SlickAs]

This foreign game will never gain a soccerhold in this country. Too pansy and boring.

True right! And also regarding Thai restaurants:

This foreign food will never gain a foothold in this country. Too pansy and spicy. Give me chops and potatoes only forever. Go Chops! You f*ckin beaudy! Chops are the best! All other food is foreign and wierd and not for us.

 

[krisholio14]

You can argue all you like, but until they are playing more than 3rd tier soccer over here, it will never overtake Aussie Rules. People want to have direct access to a fantastic sport played at its highest level, and in Melbourne we get it in droves with AFL.