Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[hooked on fishing]

Coming up we have dogs, Brisbane, suns, eagles, pies, north, Essendon, giants.

If we get 5 or 6 wins out of that we will be in a really good spot

 

[Samcro24]

It's far fetched, but not that far fetched.

We'd need another Dawson type in the guts (in terms of quality, not necessarily the same style of player), and probably another 'very good' mid.

No injuries to key players. Kids need to run out the long season.

And a top 4 finish, which we've likely already blown thanks to kicking ourselves out of a few winnable games.

Speaks more to the evenness of the competition rather than the awesomeness of the side. We wouldn't get near the Hawthorn and Richmond dynasties, or Melbourne of 2021 (yes I know we beat them that year and we were very shit).

There's also that little thing of overcoming the 25 year hoodoo of winning a big final on the G. Likely against Collingwood (!), Geelong or Melbourne.

Extremely unlikely. But a lot closer than anyone would have thought preseason.

Edit: of course the wheels could still fall off at any point making a complete mockery of this post.

 

[PCORF]

That was a superb game against St Kilda in glorious weather conditions at the oval last Sunday. Superb team effort all round.

Finals, well I'm just taking it week by week. No game is easy, especially the game in Ballarat this weekend. But we did win there last year by a point but 2023 is a different year.

 

[PCORF]

Coming up we have dogs, Brisbane, suns, eagles, pies, north, Essendon, giants.

If we get 5 or 6 wins out of that we will be in a really good spot

WB 50/50
Brisbane L
Suns W
Eagles W
Pies 50/50
North W
Essendon 50/50
Giants 50/50

Should grab at least 3 of these games, hopefully 4 or 5.

 

[ABAB]

It was looking very shaky seven weeks ago when we were 0-2.

I thought we would struggle to beat GWS away before the season but thought we've taken a big step given how we played in the 1st half. I was concern about the how the young players would recover against Richmond but that 3rd quarter was back to 2017, "best" 0-2.

 

[daniel_4tw]

I have us 7th if we beat Port, 9th if we lose.

Can’t afford to drop the games we should win (ala GWS and Richmond).

 

[Bearded Clam]

it aint linear.

but SO SO MANY posters here are looking like complete clowns and hopefully enjoying the eggs on their face. In 3 years - TT, Pedlar, Worrell, Soligo, Berry, Rachele, Dawson, Max, Rankine, Murray, Parnell - isnt that the best in the league in that time? - and the progression of Jones and Scholl and Milera returning after horrendous injuries.

We are setting ourselves up to be a powerhouse club for the next 6-8 years with only 4 players over 100+ games playing from my understanding (Tex, Smith, Sloane, Laird), and massive salary cap optionality. I have been in contact and am confident we will have a big crack at Redman and HH this year. Along with further elite talents next year

Hamish and Reidy - you are owed many an apology. In my view, our recruiting and trading has been LEAGUES BEST over a 3 year period

Fxxk me.. why make shit up.

First if all.. not one single person here has had a dig at our last three years of trading and drafting. We’d all say its been pretty bloody good. All the players that have come in that you've listed there are well spoken of by nearly all here.. so there goes your first ridiculous claim.

and you forgot to list the dark horse in Minge.. he’s been immense this year.

its the mcasay, gallucci, signorello, poholke‘s and a few others that have been the massive bombs that it could be very easily argued have held us back. And some of the fsr too generous contracts given out like the ROB one and the Milera one..

there is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that if we’d picked pickett or day over mcasey we’d be even stronger now and even stronger again if we had SPP or Shai Bolton instead of jordan Gallucci.

think of the midfield we’d now have right now with SPP and Day, or Day and Bolton, or Day and pickett in it…

thats two enormous fxxk ups when drafting.

Milera has underperformed to this point in his career.. can he change that?.. we’ll see. Played well on the weekend.. hasnt been great in most games this year tho and yes… injury has crueled him along the way.

I have been a big fan of jones, stuck up for him a lot in here and he has finally hit straps and it looks like he has a good decade ahead.. but I’d be a complete fool if I didnt have doubts at some points and didn't think other posters that are in here had valid reason‘s for thinking he wouldnt make it.

same with mchenry.. i still think he hasn't fully resurrected his career..

like you say.. the last three years have been fantastic.. but that shouldnt excuse the very bad mistakes made in the few years before that that have cost us dearly.

hope you are right on redman.. he would be a huge get.

and as for Robbo’s “can win the GF” call.. nah, we’re going alright but a possible GF win?… Robbo’s obviously been on the glass BBQ this evening making calls like that.

 

[ABAB]

Fxxk me.. why make s**t up.

First if all.. not one single person here has had a dig at our last three years of trading and drafting. We’d all say its been pretty bloody good. All the players that have come in that you've listed there are well spoken of by nearly all here.. so there goes your first ridiculous claim.

and you forgot to list the dark horse in Minge.. he’s been immense this year.

its the mcasay, gallucci, signorello, poholke‘s and a few others that have been the massive bombs that it could be very easily argued have held us back. And some of the fsr too generous contracts given out like the ROB one and the Milera one..

there is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that if we’d picked pickett or day over mcasey we’d be even stronger now and even stronger again if we had SPP or Shai Bolton instead of jordan Gallucci.

think of the midfield we’d now have right now with SPP and Day, or Day and Bolton, or Day and pickett in it…

thats two enormous fxxk ups when drafting.

Milera has underperformed to this point in his career.. can he change that?.. we’ll see. Played well on the weekend.. hasnt been great in most games this year tho and yes… injury has crueled him along the way.

I have been a big fan of jones, stuck up for him a lot in here and he has finally hit straps and it looks like he has a good decade ahead.. but I’d be a complete fool if I didnt have doubts at some points and didn't think other posters that are in here had valid reason‘s for thinking he wouldnt make it.

same with mchenry.. i still think he hasn't fully resurrected his career..

like you say.. the last three years have been fantastic.. but that shouldnt excuse the very bad mistakes made in the few years before that that have cost us dearly.

hope you are right on redman.. he would be a huge get.

and as for Robbo’s “can win the GF” call.. nah, we’re going alright but a possible GF win?… Robbo’s obviously been on the glass BBQ this evening making calls like that.

Surely you are not including those late picks to bash Hamish, why not include his other late picks as well lol. We all know Pyke wanted more speed so Hamish drafted an apparently very professional Gallucci who turned very unprofessional once in the AFL system such that he wasn't even selected as a rookie at another club.

Fogarty and Jones turned out to be correct (especially Fogarty) and I still think GWS wouldn't have done the pick swap had we not told them we were selecting McAsey which allow us to draft Pedlar and GWS to use less bid point to match for Green.

 

[adelaidecrows]

Yes!

We will probably be where we are now. Just did the ladder predictor. Interestingly enough Port have a lousy run home which could cost them.

 

[George CantStandYa]

Key games

Bulldogs
Brisbane H
Gold Coast
Essendon
Port

Banking losses to Melbourne, Pies and Brisbane away. Confident we will win the rest

 

[Danger in Texas]

Key games

Bulldogs
Brisbane H
Gold Coast
Essendon
Port

Banking losses to Melbourne, Pies and Brisbane away. Confident we will win the rest

Gold Coast in Darwin is going to be a real tough one for us, I reckon. Suns are an incredibly good clearance team, will need to be really sharp with our ball movement from defence in that game

 

[jackster83]

How fast and early our rebuild success has come? It was looking very shaky a few years ago lol.

Was less than a year ago we were still looking crap.

The week leading into the Carlton game last year we were sitting 16th and had been getting beaten easily by the likes of Hawthorn and the Suns.

 

[AFC979810]

It's far fetched, but not that far fetched.

We'd need another Dawson type in the guts (in terms of quality, not necessarily the same style of player), and probably another 'very good' mid.

No injuries to key players. Kids need to run out the long season.

And a top 4 finish, which we've likely already blown thanks to kicking ourselves out of a few winnable games.

Speaks more to the evenness of the competition rather than the awesomeness of the side. We wouldn't get near the Hawthorn and Richmond dynasties, or Melbourne of 2021 (yes I know we beat them that year and we were very s**t).

There's also that little thing of overcoming the 25 year hoodoo of winning a big final on the G. Likely against Collingwood (!), Geelong or Melbourne.

Extremely unlikely. But a lot closer than anyone would have thought preseason.

Edit: of course the wheels could still fall off at any point making a complete mockery of this post.

It is that far fetched, but its definitely an exciting time. Our best footy is as good as any side in the AFL in my opinion and our strengths line up with recent premiership sides.

I don't think any side this century has even made a grand final, without 1-2 finals series in the previous 3 years.

We are building a side that is built to win a flag IMO. 9 of the last 10 grand finalists were top 3 in scoring in the AFL. We are currently sitting 4th in scoring behind only Melbourne, Geelong and Brisbane.

AFL is now a scoring league - get to 100 points and you almost certainly win.

Here is how we have faired over the past 6 years in games we have scored over 100 points.

2017 - 15 games over 100.(14wins 1 tie)
2018 - 6 games over 100 (6-0)
2019 - 3 games over 100 (3-0)
2020 - 0 games (Covid reduced games)
2021 - 3 games (3-0)
2022 - 4 games (4-0).

2023 - 4 games (4-0).

If we can sneak into the finals this year - we definitely should be gearing up for a big long challenging premiership run in 2024/2025.

 

[70lethal]

Surely you are not including those late picks to bash Hamish, why not include his other late picks as well lol. We all know Pyke wanted more speed so Hamish drafted an apparently very professional Gallucci who turned very unprofessional once in the AFL system such that he wasn't even selected as a rookie at another club.

Fogarty and Jones turned out to be correct (especially Fogarty) and I still think GWS wouldn't have done the pick swap had we not told them we were selecting McAsey which allow us to draft Pedlar and GWS to use less bid point to match for Green.

Something significantly changed between 2016-2019 in drafting policy.
We were lucky to get Fogarty at 12. He was a significant slider.
I personally would prefer Butters over Jones so not 100% correct pick but looks very good compared to Hately and now probably going past Caldwell as well.
Lets not make stuff up about the GWS trade.
The 2021 draft isnt looking to shabby when you consider mids Ward, Erasmus, NWM, Hobbs went after Rachelle.
Pedlar and Soligo are currently the stand outs and you would have said the same for Berry last year.

 

[jenny61_99]

I really hope we make finals given the exciting brand of footy we are playing. Be great experience for the youngsters to get a taste of it. It’s so nice hearing positive pieces from all and sundry… theres pride in the Club again. if we do happen to snaffle a GF as Robbo predicts (ala baby bombers), I wouldn’t say no!

 

[Crow till I die]

I worry when the vic media blow smoke up our arse...hopefully inside the 4 walls, whilst they recognise a lot of things are being done well, they don't get ahead of themselves

Adelaide ‘can win the premiership this year’ as experts break down Crows’ exciting profile

‘They can win it’: Pundit’s shock AFL flag call amid new contender’s brilliant ‘adventure’

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Slobbo saying we can win a flag is a bad omen.

 

[Eddie Murphy]

Gold Coast in Darwin is going to be a real tough one for us, I reckon. Suns are an incredibly good clearance team, will need to be really sharp with our ball movement from defence in that game

Reading this thread I think people are sleeping on the suns. Were absolutely robbed of an impressive win against Melbourne that would put them on equal points with us.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[spexau]

I worry when the vic media blow smoke up our arse...hopefully inside the 4 walls, whilst they recognise a lot of things are being done well, they don't get ahead of themselves

Adelaide ‘can win the premiership this year’ as experts break down Crows’ exciting profile

‘They can win it’: Pundit’s shock AFL flag call amid new contender’s brilliant ‘adventure’

www.foxsports.com.au

Same thing happened after we beat Carlton and we still won the following week.

 

[cleanhands]

Robbo……… what a ridiculous thing to say 9 games into the season coming from a long way back, round 18 maybe a better time to make that statement, stop click baiting, get a breathalyser and concussion test another good reason why I don’t watch these w***ers

 

[LC40]

I'm not saying we'll win the grand final but this year might well be our peak window, even though we are missing a couple of key pieces.
Tex right now is in good form and the best forward we have but he's 33 years of age. He's vital to our structure and and come finals his experience will matter. He certainly takes the opposition's best defender.
In another year or two who knows?
Fog and Thilthorpe, we hope will step up as his replacement but very few players have the presence, balance or kicking ability (with both feet) that Tex does.

We definitely have deficiencies that need to be looked at during the course of the season.
We are light on an extra key position defender and need to develop more help in the midfield.
There's talent in the squad that may fill the gaps but as we say every year they need an opportunity.
It's a hard balancing act, remaining competitive while giving our depth game time.

If Tex stays sound and the team plays with this level of endeavor they've got a chance.

 

[hooked on fishing]

WB 50/50
Brisbane L
Suns W
Eagles W
Pies 50/50
North W
Essendon 50/50
Giants 50/50

Should grab at least 3 of these games, hopefully 4 or 5.

Yep even if we win the games we SHOULD win we will still be okay I think. Topping Brisbane would be a great confidence boost going into all the other games

 

[70lethal]

Technically only have to win the games against teams below us on the ladder.
With most of the squad running on top of the ground very doable.
Laird, Dawson, Rankine, Walker, Fogarty can actually make it happen

 

[Golumless]

I worry when the vic media blow smoke up our arse...hopefully inside the 4 walls, whilst they recognise a lot of things are being done well, they don't get ahead of themselves

Adelaide ‘can win the premiership this year’ as experts break down Crows’ exciting profile

‘They can win it’: Pundit’s shock AFL flag call amid new contender’s brilliant ‘adventure’

www.foxsports.com.au

They're not a premeirship threat if they do. Still, it's time to get comfortable with expectation.

With the article, I think it's very optimistic, but not out of the question. The high-end talent, and the offensive capability (in particular on the outside) of the side are all there at the moment. The right coach is in place as well, seeing Nicks is able to get a team to play with that added bit of toughness (smothers, pressure etc) and confidence that you need to go deep.

So most of the pieces are there. It just depends on two things. One, our defense. It's making strides towards becoming miserly, but it needs to get better still. Adelaide isn't doing shit if it isn't lights out. Two, age/injuries. There are still a lot of kids in our lineup and they will get beat up as the year goes on. Equally, whatever chance is extinguished if Dawson gets injured.

 

[Crom]

Slobbo definitely had a long lunch yesterday..