Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[Scorpus]

I'm glad we are playing Collingwood, Brisbane and Melbourne twice throughout the season, and at the MCG and Gabba. Doesn't help our top 8 run, but it does provide a solid lesson for the boys on what it will take to beat the best teams away from home. Good chance we get smacked in those games, but it will set the standard for what it takes to contend.

I think we only play Melbourne once, at the MCG

 

[Moe Ron]

I think we only play Melbourne once, at the MCG

Damn it, you're right! Oh well, at least it's at the 'G'

 

[Dangarman]

Still in the 8 after R10, tbh the Crows have exceeded my expectations.

Then again, who have we really beat? Blues, Saints, Freo, Hawks and our best win in 2023, the Power.

It will probably take 12 wins and good percentage to make the 8.

So we need 7 wins from Lions,Suns,Eagles,Pies,North,Dons,Giants,Dees,Port,Suns,Lions,Swans,Eagles.

The bolded are the games we have some genuine realistic chance to win, which means in 9 games we must win 7.

Two home games will probably from here dictate if we make the 8, Lions on Sunday and the Power later in the year.

IMO with the extra game this year (23 instead of the usual 22) a 12-11 record will not be enough.
13-9 is 59.1% win percentage
12-10 is 54.5%
12-11 is 52.2%
11-11 is 50%

You might be right, but with Carlton and Richmond possibly round the mark a 12-1-10 record for 8th place is a strong possibility.
Would be pretty bizarre if Carlton and Richmond both finished 12-1-10 in 8th and 9th. We all know who would finish 9th in that scenario...

Past 10 years:

Year	8th place	Differential to 9th
2022	12-10	0.6%
2021	11-11	4 pts
2020	9-1-7	2 pts
2019	12-10	4 pts
2018	13-9	4 pts
2017	12-10	0.5%
2016	12-10	9.5%
2015	13-9	4 pts
2014	12-10	4 pts
2013 (before Ess relegated to 9th)	12-10	4 pts

 

[Golumless]

It sounds a bit reactionary, but yesterday's performance was that bad and non-competitive that it really calls our ability to make the eight into question. It's not the fact that we lost, it's that the game damages our confidence that the side will turn up to any given game. We're looking at scraping into 8th at best.

I dunno if it does much damage, it's just a shit happens game on the road for a team that strung together a pretty solid seven weeks. The key is to bounce back against Brisbane at home. Lose that without putting up a lot of resistance and then alarm bells should be ringing.

With the eight, we have 7 more home games and a few soft roadtrips. We don't look like getting past the bottom of the eight, but we're in a good position to make the dance at this point.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

I’m in the yes camp, once we play Brisbane we have an easier draw coming up.

 

[El Doederino]

When all said and done, 4 weeks ago we expected these last 4 results.

Even expecting to lose against Brisbane.

These results don’t change a thing.

 

[Rotayjay]

IMO with the extra game this year (23 instead of the usual 22) a 12-11 record will not be enough.
13-9 is 59.1% win percentage
12-10 is 54.5%
12-11 is 52.2%
11-11 is 50%

You might be right, but with Carlton and Richmond possibly round the mark a 12-1-10 record for 8th place is a strong possibility.
Would be pretty bizarre if Carlton and Richmond both finished 12-1-10 in 8th and 9th. We all know who would finish 9th in that scenario...

Past 10 years:

Year	8th place	Differential to 9th
2022	12-10	0.6%
2021	11-11	4 pts
2020	9-1-7	2 pts
2019	12-10	4 pts
2018	13-9	4 pts
2017	12-10	0.5%
2016	12-10	9.5%
2015	13-9	4 pts
2014	12-10	4 pts
2013 (before Ess relegated to 9th)	12-10	4 pts

I agree. Now that the gather round has created an extra game (until a 19th side comes in), all the precedents of what it takes to make eighth spot go out the window. I would like to see us make it because I think the experience and the psychological milestone of playing a final would be valuable for our (many) young players. Even 8th and losing an elimination final is better experience than missing out.

 

[John Who]

I think 12 wins with the best percentage might be enough to make the Finals. Particularly in a year where it appears quite an even comp except a few of the bottom teams.

Currently it seems we’re more probable than less, despite the recent loss. Though the next game against the Lions will be a good indicator of how hungry we are to making the right steps to making the Finals. We need to make all our home games count from here on.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I reckon Freo will take the last spot in 8 and we will drop out

As long as we keep developing it’s been a successful season but the hard slog part of year starts now

 

[The Perfect Stranger]

I reckon Freo will take the last spot in 8 and we will drop out

As long as we keep developing it’s been a successful season but the hard slog part of year starts now

It will be a successful year if we recruit/trade aggressively at the end pf the year. If we don't bring in a mature aged or young quality midfielder this rebuild could go on for another generation.

 

[PCORF]

I'm glad we are playing Collingwood, Brisbane and Melbourne twice throughout the season, and at the MCG and Gabba. Doesn't help our top 8 run, but it does provide a solid lesson for the boys on what it will take to beat the best teams away from home. Good chance we get smacked in those games, but it will set the standard for what it takes to contend.

Indeed.

And I think Collingwood are the team to beat this year.

 

[Scorpus]

It's looking like Fremantle will replace us in the eight. They're back

 

[Golumless]

It will be a successful year if we recruit/trade aggressively at the end pf the year. If we don't bring in a mature aged or young quality midfielder this rebuild could go on for another generation.

That's a bit over the top at this point.

A top line midfielder would be handy, but we look like we're going to get to a contention window regardless with this generation at this point.

North is what a failed rebuild looks like.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

It's looking like Fremantle will replace us in the eight. They're back

Freo are definitely playing finals

It will be us or saints I reckon ( Essendon some chance too )

 

[Scorpus]

Freo are definitely playing finals

It will be us or saints I reckon ( Essendon some chance too )

Saints are 2 games clear of us. Will be hard to bridge that I reckon

 

[pjcrows]

A couple of things will be important - winning at home (obviously) but also percentage. We need big % gains against West Coast and North, and prevent losing margins from blowing out.

All wins are important, but tomorrow seems pretty important now because we dropped the Pies game - or more to the point, the Richmond game.

 

[The Perfect Stranger]

That's a bit over the top at this point.

A top line midfielder would be handy, but we look like we're going to get to a contention window regardless with this generation at this point.

North is what a failed rebuild looks like.

At the moment our midfield and list could possibly fluke a one-year spike and a shot at the top 4 in the next few years, which I seriously doubt. However, if we want a 3 to 5 year premiership window, we are still a fair way off talent wise and depth.

 

[Interloperer]

Looks like RNG will be the dominant factor from 6-12th

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

It's looking like Fremantle will replace us in the eight. They're back

They are actually watchable again.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Freo are definitely playing finals

It will be us or saints I reckon ( Essendon some chance too )

Saints & us could both miss.

Dons wouldn't want to get done by the Eagles with a continuation of upsets...

 

[Samcro24]

Saints & us could both miss.

Dons wouldn't want to get done by the Eagles with a continuation of upsets...

Not sure they could beat Norwood at the moment

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Not sure they could beat Norwood at the moment

With the heat applied after last week's shamozzle, you would expect them to come out firing this week.... or may see a change of coach very soon.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Saints are 2 games clear of us. Will be hard to bridge that I reckon

Agree, will be tough but I think they’re the ones to drop off in second half of season

…. Geelong is the other hope we could replace ( we are now sitting 9th) but they will improve when players get back so can’t see us passing them

Ultimately we prob miss but ya never know

 

[Danger in Texas]

Will be a fight between us, Saints, Bombers, Dockers, Cats for three of the finals spots, it seems

I don’t have us as one of the likeliest to make it, but we at least have a chance

 

[Twist_of_Lemon]

Truly looks like a season where a team or two will fail upwards into the 8 despite all reasonable efforts not to.