Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[MsTopG]

I think the next 4 weeks are very important for us. Win the next 4 and I think we can finish with 15-16 wins which most likely should be 5th and a home final. That should ensure that we make it to the 2nd week of finals and possibly further. This week should be tough but if we turn up like we did last week I think we can beat Bulldogs.

 

[MsTopG]

I worry when the vic media blow smoke up our arse...hopefully inside the 4 walls, whilst they recognise a lot of things are being done well, they don't get ahead of themselves

Adelaide ‘can win the premiership this year’ as experts break down Crows’ exciting profile

‘They can win it’: Pundit’s shock AFL flag call amid new contender’s brilliant ‘adventure’

www.foxsports.com.au

I think our best is as good as anyone. Our problem is doing it consistently and away from home. I'm looking forward to how we go against melb and collingwood at the MCG and the lions at the gabbba. Win one or two of those and we are a genuine flag threat. I think that you must finish top 4 to win the flag and unfortunately those losses to GWS, Richmond and Collingwood will cost us any chance of top 4. We should be sitting top of the ladder at 8 and 1. If you look at fox footy's premiership quadrant over the last 7 weeks we are sitting in the premiership quadrant on 130% along with Melbourne, Brisbane, Collingwood, and Geelong. The first two weeks which we were poor defensively skews our overall results. Also by the end of round 13 we would have played 9 teams of the top 12 but 6 of those were at home.

 

[VictorianCrow85]

Article on Heraldsun lists the Crows as having the 5th most favourable draw to finish the year from this point. Of course form is fluid & it's probably partly based on current ladder positions etc so make of it what you will. I really can't be bothered scouting every team so I'll take it on face value.

14. ADELAIDE​

R10: Western Bulldogs (Mars)

R11: Brisbane (Adelaide Oval)

R12: Gold Coast (TIO Stadium)

R13: West Coast (Adelaide Oval)

R14: BYE

R15: Collingwood (MCG)

R16: North Melbourne (Adelaide Oval)

R17: Essendon (Marvel)

R18: GWS (Adelaide Oval)

R19: Melbourne (MCG)

R20: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

R21: Gold Coast (Adelaide Oval)

R22: Brisbane (Gabba)

R23: Sydney Swans (Adelaide Oval)

R24: West Coast (Optus Stadium)

The Crows have the fifth-easiest remaining fixture overall and the sixth-easiest stretch over the next month, although they do play five games against the current top-four sides, equal most in the competition.

Outside a second Showdown – always a 50-50 game – the Crows play only one game against a team currently sitting 5th–8th. They have five games to come against the current bottom four.


The team with the supposed toughest draw? Port Adelaide, then Geelong, then Brisbane, then Freo.

The team with the easiest draw? Essendon, then Saints, then Dogs, then Pies. (Who have done the heavy lifting in early part of season to be fair)

 

[Moe Ron]

Slobbo definitely had a long lunch yesterday..

Robbo always seems like he's a six-pack deep on AFL 360

 

[VictorianCrow85]

Robbo always seems like he's a six-pack deep on AFL 360

When he wasn't on the show I swear they covered more stuff because you dont have endless 30 second breaks between Robbo deciding what he's going to try and articulate.

 

[MsTopG]

When he wasn't on the show I swear they covered more stuff because you dont have endless 30 second breaks between Robbo deciding what he's going to try and articulate.

Dunstall is far superior but likely can't be stuffed doing the show.

 

[VictorianCrow85]

Dunstall is far superior but likely can't be stuffed doing the show.

I really rate Dunstalls insights into things. Quite like Buckley & Montagna these days too. I wonder if Buckley will make a good coach 2nd time round? There's things I hear that I think yep he knows his stuff but always taints it a bit with his uber love for defensive footy which was the issue he had at Collingwood.

 

[Mutineer]

 

[Samcro24]

Slobbo saying we can win a flag is a bad omen.

I like to think of it more along the lines of a B movie, where aliens invade a town or some shit, and the town drunk is the first to realise and warn people, but no one believes him.

 

[Samcro24]

Robbo always seems like he's a six-pack deep on AFL 360

Gerard: The game was a true pugilistic clash of titans, on football’s biggest stage. Ecstasy for the victors, agony for the vanquished…

Robbo: Awww gee footy’s good innit?

 

[Rotayjay]

I'm flattered by the premiership talk, but it's puff. It's time to put in the hard yards to position ourselves for a flag in the coming years.

 

[hooked on fishing]

Premiership talk is..come on let’s be honest ridiculous. Anything greater than 8 wins for us is a success to last year. Making the finals would be a great confidence booster and I guess you never know what can happen. We have proved that we can hang with the best when we pull it together for 4 quarters.

Definitely think we can scrape in the 8 but we need to put away the games we SHOULD win and if we pluck a couple of harder games against the top 8 sides then that’ll put us in a good spot. Premiership, no.. maybe in the next couple of years. I’m always happy to be proven wrong

 

[Trigger13]

Premiership talk is..come on let’s be honest ridiculous. Anything greater than 8 wins for us is a success to last year. Making the finals would be a great confidence booster and I guess you never know what can happen. We have proved that we can hang with the best when we pull it together for 4 quarters.

Definitely think we can scrape in the 8 but we need to put away the games we SHOULD win and if we pluck a couple of harder games against the top 8 sides then that’ll put us in a good spot. Premiership, no.. maybe in the next couple of years. I’m always happy to be proven wrong

A nice, measured response here. But I actually think we are better than what you are making out. And, as we’ve seen with Sydney, you have to make hay when the sun shines. This idea that progression is linear is fools gold. I say we dream big. And dream it now.

 

[skam85]

Anything greater than 8 wins for us is a success to last year.

From here on in if we end the season on 9 wins, it's a failure.

 

[jo172]

I think I could live with going 12/11 and missing finals on percentage.

Need to win more than we lose to get a pass mark.

 

[whattagun07]

Article on Heraldsun lists the Crows as having the 5th most favourable draw to finish the year from this point. Of course form is fluid & it's probably partly based on current ladder positions etc so make of it what you will. I really can't be bothered scouting every team so I'll take it on face value.

14. ADELAIDE​

R10: Western Bulldogs (Mars)

R11: Brisbane (Adelaide Oval)

R12: Gold Coast (TIO Stadium)

R13: West Coast (Adelaide Oval)

R14: BYE

R15: Collingwood (MCG)

R16: North Melbourne (Adelaide Oval)

R17: Essendon (Marvel)

R18: GWS (Adelaide Oval)

R19: Melbourne (MCG)

R20: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)

R21: Gold Coast (Adelaide Oval)

R22: Brisbane (Gabba)

R23: Sydney Swans (Adelaide Oval)

R24: West Coast (Optus Stadium)

The Crows have the fifth-easiest remaining fixture overall and the sixth-easiest stretch over the next month, although they do play five games against the current top-four sides, equal most in the competition.

Outside a second Showdown – always a 50-50 game – the Crows play only one game against a team currently sitting 5th–8th. They have five games to come against the current bottom four.


The team with the supposed toughest draw? Port Adelaide, then Geelong, then Brisbane, then Freo.

The team with the easiest draw? Essendon, then Saints, then Dogs, then Pies. (Who have done the heavy lifting in early part of season to be fair)

I see 7 'should win' in there (GC x 2, WCE x 2, Norf, GWS, Syd)
Let's say we get 5/7.

There are 4 '50-50s' (WBD, Bris @ H, Port, Ess A)
Let's say we get 2/4

There are 3 'probably won't win's (Coll A, Melb A, Bris A)
Let's say we snag 1/3

That's another 8 wins and gives us 13 wins...

I'm thinking 13-14 wins is very possible. I'd be slightly disappointed if we finish with 11 wins (probably would have take 11 at the start of the year though!)

We probably finish 9-10th if we finish with 12 wins.

So im thinking 7th-10th is our landing spot.

 

[Rotayjay]

I reckon we could finish as high as 5th if we win all the games that are looking 50-50 at this stage, plus the ones we think we should win.

 

[Dirty Bird]

I see 7 'should win' in there (GC x 2, WCE x 2, Norf, GWS, Syd)
Let's say we get 5/7.

There are 4 '50-50s' (WBD, Bris @ H, Port, Ess A)
Let's say we get 2/4

There are 3 'probably won't win's (Coll A, Melb A, Bris A)
Let's say we snag 1/3

That's another 8 wins and gives us 13 wins...

I'm thinking 13-14 wins is very possible. I'd be slightly disappointed if we finish with 11 wins (probably would have take 11 at the start of the year though!)

We probably finish 9-10th if we finish with 12 wins.

So im thinking 7th-10th is our landing spot.

I'd move away (Well, neutral) GC to 50/50 as well as Swans.

8 more wins should be the bare minimum
But I felt this current 5 game stretch was the difficult part. Needed to go 2-3 (or better), currently 1-2. This game (Bulldogs) probably more a chance of winning than Brisbane tbh. But both could go either way.

 

[MsTopG]

Sent back my grand finals tickets. A bit premature.

 

[Rotayjay]

It sounds a bit reactionary, but yesterday's performance was that bad and non-competitive that it really calls our ability to make the eight into question. It's not the fact that we lost, it's that the game damages our confidence that the side will turn up to any given game. We're looking at scraping into 8th at best.

 

[MsTopG]

It sounds a bit reactionary, but yesterday's performance was that bad and non-competitive that it really calls our ability to make the eight into question. It's not the fact that we lost, it's that the game damages our confidence that the side will turn up to any given game. We're looking at scraping into 8th at best.

Hopefully as a club we have a big ego that yesterday's performance doesn't mean anything. The younger group seems pretty confident.

 

[GROTTO]

Still in the 8 after R10, tbh the Crows have exceeded my expectations.

Then again, who have we really beat? Blues, Saints, Freo, Hawks and our best win in 2023, the Power.

It will probably take 12 wins and good percentage to make the 8.

So we need 7 wins from Lions,Suns,Eagles,Pies,North,Dons,Giants,Dees,Port,Suns,Lions,Swans,Eagles.

The bolded are the games we have some genuine realistic chance to win, which means in 9 games we must win 7.

Two home games will probably from here dictate if we make the 8, Lions on Sunday and the Power later in the year.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Still in the 8 after R10, tbh the Crows have exceeded my expectations.

Then again, who have we really beat? Blues, Saints, Freo, Hawks and our best win in 2023, the Power.

It will probably take 12 wins and good percentage to make the 8.

So we need 7 wins from Lions,Suns,Eagles,Pies,North,Dons,Giants,Dees,Port,Suns,Lions,Swans,Eagles.

The bolded are the games we have some genuine realistic chance to win, which means in 9 games we must win 7.

Two home games will probably from here dictate if we make the 8, Lions on Sunday and the Power later in the year.

There is no doubt in my mind that we'll come out and be very competitive against Brisbane, and possibly win. A different side at home.

 

[GROTTO]

There is no doubt in my mind that we'll come out and be very competitive against Brisbane, and possibly win. A different side at home.

I dont disagree, if we play at our best and the Lions dont mentally rock up to AO, every chance we can roll them.

However, if the Lions play at their best, we wont win.

 

[Moe Ron]

I'm glad we are playing Collingwood, Brisbane and Melbourne twice throughout the season, and at the MCG and Gabba. Doesn't help our top 8 run, but it does provide a solid lesson for the boys on what it will take to beat the best teams away from home. Good chance we get smacked in those games, but it will set the standard for what it takes to contend.