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You'll never guess what the 2021 free kick differential chart looks like
- Thread starter ashep
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hard not to spud it up when you have your ankles taken off
Dr Tigris
Brownlow Medallist
The figures are all for real.
But there may be a bit of cat baiting there at the end. Their usual bunch of conspiracy theorist theorists should be along any minute right on cue. Wherever someone uncovers evil wrongdoing around here, the cat pack accuse them of being a conspiracy theorist. Something about tin foil hats something something…
Yeah I know. It's actually quite amazing how year after year you see the Dogs on top and the Tigers down the bottom, as total outliers. Whatever, conspiracy etc. But it just looks so strange.
On raw numbers, this year is far from our worst Dt T. That’s why we needed to drill down to get a better understanding of why I am on my 7th Sony Bravia for the season.
- Feb 9, 2015
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- 9,426
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Richmond’s six closest matches whilst still a realistic chance to make finals resulted in 5 wins and 1 loss to the Tigers.
Richmond lost every free kick count in those 6 matches. V Port, Eagles, Suns, Giants(first match,) Magpies, Dockers.
The free kick differential in those six games was and eye-watering 89-139. Roughly averaging 15 free kicks to Richmond and 23 against. These 6 games accounted for 59% of Richmond’s overall free kick deficit in 2021. Richmond’s free kick deficit from these 6 games(the 6 closest games Richmond played in while they were a chance to make finals) was far greater than any other team’s free kick deficit for the whole season.
In the other 16 games that didn’t matter or weren’t decided by 16 points or less, the average reverts to 18 free kicks for and 20 against. These 16 games accounted for 41% of Richmond’s free kick deficit in 2021.
How much difference would an 8 free kick differential make in a match? Well, for a start, roughly 1 in 8 free kicks results in a goal. So there is one goal value straight up. Then I would estimate would estimate the other 7 free kicks would each have roughly a bit over half the value of an average inside 50. Approximately every 4th inside 50 results directly in a goal, so let’s say these other 7 frees are worth 4 points on average. So the umps robbed 10 points per match off us in these tight game, on average. How many results would have changed if we’d been umpired fairly? Four of our losses would have become 3 wins and a draw, giving us a 12 win and 2 draws season and elevating Richmond to 7th position on the ladder, where we would have no doubt beaten Swans this week before our annual finals dismantling of the pussies the week after to eliminate them in straight sets. To be honest though, even given fair umpiring I doubt we would have got much further than that. That’s the famous Tiger supporter humility coming out in me right there, always self effacing, always unassuming.
So the umps under Stephen Hocking didn’t so much destroy us this year. It was more a dismembering with surgical precision.
I have it on good authority that Hayden Kennedy honourably resigned as Ump’s Head Coach over Richmond’s treatment. Serial umpire interferer S. Hocking was eventually asked to resign over it, so heads did roll. Meanwhile at Pussy Paddock Hocking was immediately promoted from undercover agent to their highest executive position for his sterling work in the field.
Please feel free to shoot the messenger Catbags.
Oh, and thanks for pick 7 scumpires. And pick 26, and 44…..
The only thing I disagree with here is the bolded. Even if the umpires were only 60% trying to ruin your season instead of the full 100%, you'd have won the flag.
I'm also keen to start a sweep on how Geelong will go in Finals. Not results obviously, the umpires have fixed the season so they're irrelevant. Which Geelong players will get off for intentionally concussing their opponents (or teammates like last years GF)?
Selwood, Hawkins Dangerfield obvious candidates, but I'm backing in Jed Bews.
Finally proof that the mighty Saints were pushed out of finals by the umps!
Absolutely nothing to do with all the bad footy we played every second week
Absolutely nothing to do with all the bad footy we played every second week
Sarcastic salt. Easily the best type.
.Your Cats need to learn, the days of bashing your way to finals victories are long gone, and when they existed, you were no good at it. You were the handbaggers in the 70’s, certainly the softest team I can recall, when a self-respecting club could win flags the honest way, by punching the living daylights out of the opposition.
Then you tried it in 89 when it still got you nowhere because you were, as usual, a long way behind the more sophisticated city of Melbourne and is cutting edge football clubs. Going the knuckle in the 2020 GF against one of the toughest teams in memory was just a laughable hail mary at trying to compete with your nemesis.Anyway, this thread is about free kicks, and hats off you had the staging and whingeing for frees part of your game working beautifully in the 2020 GF, as the 16-11 free kick count in your favour shows. Shame the umps couldn’t help you locate which way Dusty went.
Good luck to the Cats in this years finals series though. No club has worked harder behind the scenes to improve their chances of winning.
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- Feb 9, 2015
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- 9,426
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Sarcastic salt. Easily the best type.
Your Cats need to learn, the days of bashing your way to finals victories are long gone, and when they existed, you were no good at it. You were the handbaggers in the 70’s, certainly the softest team I can recall, when a self-respecting club could win flags the honest way, by punching the living daylights out of the opposition.
Anyway, this thread is about free kicks, and hats off you had the staging and whingeing for frees part of your working beautifully in the 2020 GF, as the 16-11 free kick count in your favour shows. Shame the umps couldn’t help you locate which way Dusty went.
Good luck to the Cats in this years finals series though. No club has worked harder behind the scenes to improve their chances of winning.
The 70's, 89, 2020, 2020 again.
Not a single mention of 2021. I just can't figure out why...
This is actually true, Richmond are noticeably lower in the past few years than you would expect given ladder position. Also at a deficit of 3% of so on the all time list.
However since this is being done to Richmond supporters I think it is fair.
Our 2021 is covered adequately in the thread title RV.
Yours on the other hand is just beginning. We knew you would lock in a top 4 position. Now for the hard part….
- Feb 9, 2015
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- Geelong
Our 2021 is covered adequately in the thread title RV.
Yours on the other hand is just beginning. We knew you would lock in a top 4 position. Now for the hard part….
Almost sounds like you're on our side.
Soon you'll learn how to portray valid criticisms as insane conspiracy theories. For example, how do you think Geelong really ended up with the weirdest shaped ground in the AFL?
It's no wonder the Tigers have the most free kicks against. Their entire game plan is based around infringing the man as a form of defence and banking on the fact the umpire won't pay 100 free kicks a game to avoid the ugliness of it all. They infringe at every single defensive 50 contest and get away with it 75% of the time. They play the averages and come out on top. It's why I have zero respect for Rance, Astbury, Grimes etc - all cheats.
Oh that’s easy. If you were called Geewide your ground would be 100m long and 150m wide. But when the genius Geelongers were making the ground they reasoned Geelong is called Geelong for a reason, so in their infinite wisdom they made your ground 170 metres long by roughly 12 metres wide. It is so narrow that the west “wing” is east of the the east “wing” and vice versa.
The great benefit of course is it is easier for the handbaggers wide runners to run scared into about row 26 of the grandstands with the ground configured like that.
That’s really good maths FBI given we have won 75% of recent Premierships. Well done.
MVille Swan
Senior List
So 4 of the last 5 premierships have gone to teams that have either come first or last in the free kick differential.
It may be time for some of the other teams to win one. GWS appear to be the big mover this year. Aren't they
normally hanging around with Richmond and the Swans near the bottom of the chart with the worst differentials?
This year they are up to fourth on the positive side of the ledger. With some more serious umpire love, they could
go all the way.
It may be time for some of the other teams to win one. GWS appear to be the big mover this year. Aren't they
normally hanging around with Richmond and the Swans near the bottom of the chart with the worst differentials?
This year they are up to fourth on the positive side of the ledger. With some more serious umpire love, they could
go all the way.
- Feb 19, 2011
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- Geelong
Oh that’s easy. If you were called Geewide your ground would be 100m long and 150m wide. But when the genius Geelongers were making the ground they reasoned Geelong is called Geelong for a reason, so in their infinite wisdom they made your ground 170 metres long by roughly 12 metres wide. It is so narrow that the west “wing” is east of the the east “wing” and vice versa.
The great benefit of course is it is easier for the handbaggers wide runners to run scared into about row 26 of the grandstands with the ground configured like that.
What are you doing in BF?, you should be at Comedy Central.
- Thread starter
- #92
When it happens in every single half of every single game across the season, yeah it's worth talking about. The odds of such a significant deviation fr the mean are astronomical.So they get about 1-2 more free kicks in a half of footy than their opponents. Wow huge. This is why free kick counts are the most pointless stat
- Thread starter
- #93
AFL’s review of Grand Final finds umpiring was not up to the standard expected
AFL review finds GF umpiring not up to par
www.foxsports.com.au
- Apr 17, 2007
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- Feb 19, 2011
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Yeah the umpiring sucked, but get over it....
"The league has reviewed the umpiring from the Grand Final and found that there were three to four decisions that were incorrect that went against the Sydney Swans."
"The AFL review did not deem the overall umpiring performance to be poor, but the league’s view was that it was beneath the level expected"
Correction: Swans fans and low IQ neutrals screaming conspiracy because a couple of decisions didn't go their way and statistics in subsequent years exhibiting that the Bulldogs play a disciplined brand of footy that result in a lesser amount of frees against.
Well I'll be damned.
Very few free kicks are due to poor discipline.
Discipline in the context of tackling when the opposition has the ball, not giving away head high free kicks, not dropping the ball etc.
the bullies differential is high because they don't concede many frees. they don't concede many frees because the umps are generally blind to throws and dropping the balls and the doggies do both all the time.
