Chris25
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- Oct 30, 2007
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- #1
Round 1
1. GWS - Tom Boyd (199cm, 102kg forward - Eastern Ranges)
He is the player that just about every team wants, and who can blame them? A full forward as strong as Tom Boyd doesn't come around all that often. In terms of where he ranks with a couple of other players around his age, I'd have him behind Jesse Hogan but just a shade ahead of Jon Patton. So really, he is deserving of the #1 selection. He does everything you'd be looking for from a franchise key forward - really strong hands, one of the best contested markers the U18s has seen. You could make the argument that he is dominating due to his size advantage, but he isn't the first player to be bigger than his opponents. He is just making the most of it. And even if he wasn't so strong, he reads the play and knows where to position himself so he'd mark it more often than not anyway. As for what he does after he marks it, I'd be backing him in to kick the goal from anywhere inside of 60m. Like Roughead, he could run through the ruck if needed to. But I don't think it's a strength of his, best just to leave him up forward.
2. Melbourne - James Aish (183cm, 74kg midfielder - Norwood)
The top pure midfielder in the draft, Aish has been a star of the underage SANFL scene for a number of years now. Right from his league debut as a 16 year old, he has pretty much been spoken about as a potential #1 selection. And there is a good reason for such high acclaim. He already looks like a seasoned AFL player when he has the ball in hand. He has more time than anyone else on the field, seemingly always makes the right decision and uses the ball as well as anyone. It's his general football smarts and ability to work his way into space which makes him a better contested ball winner than his slight frame may lead you to believe. Gary Ablett is hardly a bull in at the centre bounces, but he can find the gaps better than anyone. So while Aish may largely be an outside player at first (which would be his only negative in my view) I think he'll become a complete midfielder in no time and will be someone to build a team around.
3. St Kilda - Josh Kelly (182cm, 73kg midfielder - Sandringham)
I get the feeling that some people aren't quite sure about Josh Kelly, and I think it stems from the fact that he is considered an 'outside' midfielder. It seems as though people are under the impression that that means they are incapable of winning their own ball and are solely seagulls on the outside. But that's not necessarily true for Kelly. Yes, he isn't a huge contested ball winner. His strength lies on the outside, but he still goes in hard when it's his turn. And he still does all the team things. I wouldn't consider his inside game any worse than Tom Scully or Lachie Whitfield, and they were top selections. It's just a matter of using them right. Kelly has absolutely elite endurance, he wont stop running all day. And you can see that just from looking at his statistics, where he consistently leads his team in handball receives. You can't blame his teammates for feeding him the ball either, because he is an excellent kick and a long one at that. Any forward would love to be on the end of one of his kicks.
4. Western Bulldogs - Matthew Scharenberg (190cm, 89kg utility - Glenelg)
I would personally consider Scharenberg the best player in the draft. I think he does get a little underrated because people don't know exactly what he'll be at the next level, probably in part due to similar sized players in the past. Is he a midfielder? A key position player? A flanker? I would suggest he is all these things, much in the same way that Brendan Goddard can fill any number of roles. I think he'll start off on a half back flank, pushing up to a wing as an outside midfielder. But with a couple of years under his belt, he'll be able to offer a marking target at CHF or an attacking option from CHB. Scharenberg arguably reads the ball better than anyone else in the draft, he is a good strong mark, has nice foot skills and athletically is above average. I don't think he has any real area of weakness, it's just a question of how he goes fitting into the different roles. He looks to be a combination of a few different players to me - Goddard, Sam Fisher, Sam Mayes and even a bit of the Riewoldt's. And I have no issue with putting him in that company.
5. Gold Coast - Jonathon Marsh (191cm, 89kg forward - East Fremantle)
One of the more interesting players to watch come draft day will likely be Jonathon Marsh, he could easily go inside the top 10 or drop down closer to the second round. Some will view him as a midfielder, some a key forward and others as a flanker. I don't think you can put Marsh in the same boat as other forwards in the 188-192cm range, he is a completely different player. He has versatility that the likes of Darling and Membrey don't. Up until this year, Marsh was a midfielder. A reasonably tall one, and a very fast one. He had worked hard to get his game to where it was, and I still think he offers great potential as a midfielder. But this year, he was thrown into the role as a CHF - with varying degrees of success. His marking game improved with the more games he played, and he is more than competing in the air and doesn't mind going for a big leap. It's his running power and elite speed which really sets him apart as a forward though, very few will be able to go with him on the lead or keep up when he runs back towards the goals. The ability to play small as a key forward shouldn't be underestimated. It's that sort of versatility that will likely see him going much earlier than what I have him.
6. Brisbane - Lewis Taylor (173cm, 73kg midfielder - Geelong)
It seems that every year now, there is one player under the 175cm mark who is pushing for top 10 selection. And generally, it's said that the only reason they aren't a top 3 selection is because of their height. We've seen Prestia and Smith, and this year that player is Lewis Taylor. Taylor shares quite a few traits with both of those players. Athletically, he is very good - both in terms of speed and agility. Maybe he wont test in the absolutely top bracket, but he seems to play quicker - and a large reason for that, is because he knows where to run and can hit the holes. As I've said elsewhere, I consider him a mix of Brent Harvey's outside run and Dion Prestia's inside wrecking ball style of player. Taylor will consistently win 25+ disposals, and is solid with his use of the ball. I could see him starting his career across half forward before making the permanent move into the midfield, because while he isn't the most natural crumber he can bob up for goals and should provide good defensive pressure.
7. North Melbourne - Luke McDonald (188cm, 80kg utility - Oakleigh)
The great white hope for North Melbourne, there is no doubt that they will select him and it's almost guaranteed that it will cost them their first round selection. I personally would have him somewhere in the 5-10 range, so it would be a good value pick for North regardless. I thought Luke McDonald was a little disappointing in the U18 Championships for Vic Metro, he won plenty of the ball and used it well but didn't really have a huge impact. And he played a largely uncontested game, I thought he could have done much more in the midfield given his physical stature. But, he'll play every game across half back for North Melbourne next year and will be a major upgrade on what they currently have. The kid is strong, attacks the ball and uses it very well by foot.
8. West Coast - Blake Acres (188cm, 84kg midfielder - West Perth)
The fact that Blake Acres missed the majority of the U18 Championships with a shoulder injury was probably the most disappointing thing to happen to the tournament. He was probably the one player that I really wanted to see, and he would have made the WA side so much more competitive as he adds something that little bit different to the rest of the WA midfielders - in fact, something different to most of the midfielders in the whole draft. For starters, he is a genuinely big midfielder - will still get a bit stronger, I saw someone describe him as 'rangy' and thats fairly accurate. Think his body and strength will develop as it has with Nat Fyfe. He is one of those players who just makes the game look easy, he is an absolute ball magnet, strong in the air and reads the play very well. And like Fyfe, he can play pretty much anywhere on the ground. Although, I think he'll go the opposite route and play as a half back/midfielder as opposed to going forward. He could be just as good as Birchall as a rebounding defender, with possibly a greater ability to play through the midfield. A top 10 talent, who I only have lower down due to somewhat limited viewings.
9. Carlton - Jack Billings (183cm, 78kg midfielder - Oakleigh)
I really don't know what I think about Jack Billings. I know some people rate him in the top 4 of this draft, with some recruiters liking him more than the South Australian pair at the top of my draft. But I just can't get excited about him. He has everything you'd want from a player - versatility, football smarts, excellent disposal and strong athletically. He has put up some very impressive games at TAC Cup level and as an underaged player last season in the U18 Championships. But, I can just see inconsistency being a major issue for him. He struggled to have an impact this year for Vic Metro, barely averaging over 12 disposals a game. I'm just not sure he becomes a genuine midfielder. So far he has made his name more as a medium forward, although I'd be tempted to develop him into a half back. He reads the play very well and can be damaging with his disposal - think he'd do better with the game unfolding infront of him, and being able to play as a loose man too.
10. GWS - Nathan Freeman (181cm, 85kg midfielder - Sandringham)
Nathan Freeman developed quite the bandwagon a couple of months ago, with some calling him the best midfielder in the draft. I've never really seen that. I think if you're picking Freeman, you're picking him based on what he could become - not what he is right now. He isn't the most consistent or dangerous midfielder in the TAC Cup, or even for Sandringham. He isn't a big goal kicker, often not having as much of an impact as he could forward of centre. And I personally don't think he is as good a kick as some make him out to be. But, he has flashed potential throughout the season. He has shown that he can kick goals, he has shown he can rack up the disposals with the best of them and he has shown excellent vision and decision making with his kicking. He just doesn't do it enough at this stage for me. What he does offer already though, is a strong body and excellent speed. And that is why he will go in the first round, somewhere in the 10-15 range in my opinion.
11. Port Adelaide - Luke Dunstan (185cm, 83kg midfielder - Woodville)
The captain of the South Australian side, if a team was after leadership and a future captain then Dunstan would likely be the first player picked in the draft. I'm finding him to be one of the harder players to place in the draft. His peformances over the last 18 months would suggest him to be a very early pick, in the SANFL U18s in particular he has just dominated. Consistently picking up 30+ touches and being named in the bests pretty much every week, as a 17 year old he was often overshadowing his older teammates. And he has carried that form through to the Championships this year. But something makes me think he could slide, just a tad. I'm not sure his kicking is quite as good as some people are making it out to be, I suppose he gets it done but its not always pretty to look at. The fact that he, more often than not, makes the right decisions certainly makes his disposal look a little better. But a 185cm inside midfielder who can also take a strong mark is always in demand, and you can afford him one slight weakness.
12. Essendon - Ben Lennon (187cm, 79kg utility - Northern Knights)
Lennon is probably the one player who I've changed my mind on the most. At one stage, I had him in the top 5 and I've also had him as low as about 15. And I don't really know where he will go come the draft, other than it will be somewhere in that quite large range. Where he goes will probably depend on what position clubs view him as playing - half forward, half back or midfield. Personally, I think it will be as a swingman capable of playing off either flank - even though his late season midfield form has been decent in the TAC Cup. I've seen some people compare him to Goddard, but he is more of a Robert Murphy for me. Lennon can play tall or small, and marks strongly in the air. With ball in hand, he is a smart player who can set up a lot of attack - I could see him making the high risk kicks into the centre corridor look easy. And that's why I like him best off of half back, where he can set up the game. Another player who has had consistency issues, and might take a couple of years to really nail down a set position.
13. Collingwood - Matthew Crouch (181cm, 80kg midfielder - North Ballarat)
In terms of the midfielders likely to come off the board early this year, there is a distinct lack of genuine inside ball winning midfielders. And this season, Matthew Crouch is clearly the best on offer. I would rate him alongside of Oliver Wines, not quite at his brother's level yet though. He is an absolute ball magnet, only having 30 disposals in the TAC Cup would be considered a quiet match for him as he is regularly hitting the 40 mark. Always at the bottom of the packs, Crouch is a natural in winning the contested ball and getting the quick handball out to his teammates. But he also reads the packs well, and can clear the ball himself with his run. A wrist injury meant he missed the first few weeks of the U18 Championships, but he returned in excellent form. And he used his time away to really improve his fitness base, which was one area in which he did need work. For an inside midfielder, he uses the ball pretty well on his left boot. At this stage, he doesn't have a huge impact on the scoreboard but that's a minor thing for a player of his type.
14. Richmond - Trent Dumont (185cm, 83kg midfielder - Norwood)
Almost the forgotten midfielder from South Australia, he just seems like one of those guys who will be forever underrated. We saw the same with the likes of Conca and Vlastuin in recent years, and both of them went in the top 10. Could it happen again? Dumont is a similar player to his teammate Dunstan - tall, strong midfielder who is a genuine ball winner. He can play inside and win his own ball, or work on the outside. Wouldn't surprise me if he began his career off of half back, before moving into the middle. Has a very good kick on him, really penetrates the lines and is just clean with everything he does. If anything, he probably doesn't have the turn of speed that teams may be looking for from such an early pick. But he does have good endurance, and that shouldn't be discounted. I can just see him coming in and having a real impact right from Round 1, he is doing just that in the SANFL seniors at the moment after all.
15. Sydney - Kade Kolodjashnij (188cm, 76kg utility - Launceston)
The form of Kade Kolodjashnij was one of the main stories coming out of the U18 Championships, and he has well and truly cemented his spot inside the first round. If Tasmania do one thing well, it's highlighting their best players. They did it last season with Thurlow, and this time they did whatever they could to show off Kade in the best possible light. While some may have him in top 10 calculations, he isn't quite there for me. But I'm happy to have him in the 15-20 range. It's easy to see why people like him though, height being the obvious one. He reads the play really well, zones off his man and is a very good uncontested mark in the back line. With ball in hand, he makes good decisions and is a nice clean kick. Given those attributes, it's no surprise he performed so well as a loose man/rebounding defender. I'd like to see a bit more in terms of actual midfield performances, because it's largely potential at this stage. Not entirely convinced he has the contested game to make a permanent midfield move, and I think he plays better when he can see the game unfolding in front of him as opposed to making it happen himself.
16. Fremantle - Cameron McCarthy (195cm, 89kg forward - South Fremantle)
One of the nicest surprises at the U18 Championships was the form of Cameron McCarthy. I'd been waiting to see which key position player would really step it up and put his name forward as an early selection, and without a doubt it was the big West Australian. His team really needed him to provide a target, and he did just that all tournament long. He's hard to miss out there on the field when he is flying for a mark, and I'm a firm believer that not enough AFL footballers wear headbands. He jumps high, attacks the ball at it's peak and more often than not will come down with it. McCarthy is still quite raw, his kicking technique is hardly textbook but it still gets results. All in all, he reminds me of Aaron Black from North Melbourne - and while it might take a couple of years to really see his best, I could see him following the same path. Obviously his Championships ended with a broken leg, but early reports put it in a different category to the career threatening tibia/fibula fractures that we've seen far too often recently. So I don't think it will hurt his status as the second best key forward in the draft.
17. Geelong - Dom Sheed (183cm, 82kg midfielder - Subiaco)
There is a lot to like about Dom Sheed, but there is something there which to me suggests he will go later than people may think. All season, I've had him around the 10-20 position and his impressive form in the Championships has done little to change my opinion. It's not the 'lack of speed' that you keep hearing, it's just that I'm not convinced he truly is 'elite'. Would you select a Jack Redden or Brad Ebert in the top 5 or 10? That's the type of player I would put Sheed alongside - pretty bloody good, but not someone who will take the AFL by storm. I like his inside midfield game, just has that ability to read the play better than others and come out of the packs with the ball. And while I wouldn't call him an elite user of the football, he always seems to make the right decisions. And if he can find the same amount of time and space at the next level, I'm sure we'll see the same thing again. One of the question marks I had over him was his versatility, and how damaging a midfielder he would be. But I was pleased to see him kick some goals for WA, because it's not something he has done a lot of before this last month.
18. Hawthorn - Marcus Bontempelli (191cm, 83kg midfielder - Northern Knights)
Possibly my favourite player in the draft, yes even ahead of the South Australians. At the start of the season I picked Marcus Bontempelli as my bolter, and I was talking him up to anyone who would listen. And I'm pleased to see more people jumping on board of the bandwagon. I've read people saying that if he grows a little more, that he would be KPP height. While that is true, the kid is a midfielder and could be something genuinely special at that height. In previous years, Marcus has played more as a flanker/outside midfielder. He is a rangy type player who moves really well, with both decent speed and a strong endurance base. Really nice leap on him, and he is a very good kick - both long and strong. The reason I'm such a fan is because of the improvements I've seen in his inside game, he is starting to really use his body well and he gets himself into good positions. I'm not saying he will be as good, but he could potentially develop into a Jobe Watson type - versatile, damaging and wins his own ball.
19. Gold Coast - Darcy Gardiner (192cm, 84kg defender - Geelong)
The general thoughts with Darcy Gardiner are that he is the best key defender in the draft, but that there isn't much competition behind him. So given that, is he really a first round pick? Or is his value inflated because of a lack of other options? Well, I'm of the opinion that he deserves to be talked about as an early pick on the back of his performances alone. Tomlinson from the Giants has had an excellent debut season, but I would have Gardiner slightly ahead in terms of their draft years. He has proven himself to be the best key defender in the TAC Cup, and was named the All Australian full back in the U18 Championships. Not the most attacking player, but he has gradually improved as the season has gone on and he isn't a liability with ball in hand. Ted Richards is probably the best comparison in my opinion as a defender. But Gardiner has also gone forward this season, taking some strong marks and kicking a few goals. So maybe that will be an option in a few years, but he'll play down back at first.
1. GWS - Tom Boyd (199cm, 102kg forward - Eastern Ranges)
He is the player that just about every team wants, and who can blame them? A full forward as strong as Tom Boyd doesn't come around all that often. In terms of where he ranks with a couple of other players around his age, I'd have him behind Jesse Hogan but just a shade ahead of Jon Patton. So really, he is deserving of the #1 selection. He does everything you'd be looking for from a franchise key forward - really strong hands, one of the best contested markers the U18s has seen. You could make the argument that he is dominating due to his size advantage, but he isn't the first player to be bigger than his opponents. He is just making the most of it. And even if he wasn't so strong, he reads the play and knows where to position himself so he'd mark it more often than not anyway. As for what he does after he marks it, I'd be backing him in to kick the goal from anywhere inside of 60m. Like Roughead, he could run through the ruck if needed to. But I don't think it's a strength of his, best just to leave him up forward.
2. Melbourne - James Aish (183cm, 74kg midfielder - Norwood)
The top pure midfielder in the draft, Aish has been a star of the underage SANFL scene for a number of years now. Right from his league debut as a 16 year old, he has pretty much been spoken about as a potential #1 selection. And there is a good reason for such high acclaim. He already looks like a seasoned AFL player when he has the ball in hand. He has more time than anyone else on the field, seemingly always makes the right decision and uses the ball as well as anyone. It's his general football smarts and ability to work his way into space which makes him a better contested ball winner than his slight frame may lead you to believe. Gary Ablett is hardly a bull in at the centre bounces, but he can find the gaps better than anyone. So while Aish may largely be an outside player at first (which would be his only negative in my view) I think he'll become a complete midfielder in no time and will be someone to build a team around.
3. St Kilda - Josh Kelly (182cm, 73kg midfielder - Sandringham)
I get the feeling that some people aren't quite sure about Josh Kelly, and I think it stems from the fact that he is considered an 'outside' midfielder. It seems as though people are under the impression that that means they are incapable of winning their own ball and are solely seagulls on the outside. But that's not necessarily true for Kelly. Yes, he isn't a huge contested ball winner. His strength lies on the outside, but he still goes in hard when it's his turn. And he still does all the team things. I wouldn't consider his inside game any worse than Tom Scully or Lachie Whitfield, and they were top selections. It's just a matter of using them right. Kelly has absolutely elite endurance, he wont stop running all day. And you can see that just from looking at his statistics, where he consistently leads his team in handball receives. You can't blame his teammates for feeding him the ball either, because he is an excellent kick and a long one at that. Any forward would love to be on the end of one of his kicks.
4. Western Bulldogs - Matthew Scharenberg (190cm, 89kg utility - Glenelg)
I would personally consider Scharenberg the best player in the draft. I think he does get a little underrated because people don't know exactly what he'll be at the next level, probably in part due to similar sized players in the past. Is he a midfielder? A key position player? A flanker? I would suggest he is all these things, much in the same way that Brendan Goddard can fill any number of roles. I think he'll start off on a half back flank, pushing up to a wing as an outside midfielder. But with a couple of years under his belt, he'll be able to offer a marking target at CHF or an attacking option from CHB. Scharenberg arguably reads the ball better than anyone else in the draft, he is a good strong mark, has nice foot skills and athletically is above average. I don't think he has any real area of weakness, it's just a question of how he goes fitting into the different roles. He looks to be a combination of a few different players to me - Goddard, Sam Fisher, Sam Mayes and even a bit of the Riewoldt's. And I have no issue with putting him in that company.
5. Gold Coast - Jonathon Marsh (191cm, 89kg forward - East Fremantle)
One of the more interesting players to watch come draft day will likely be Jonathon Marsh, he could easily go inside the top 10 or drop down closer to the second round. Some will view him as a midfielder, some a key forward and others as a flanker. I don't think you can put Marsh in the same boat as other forwards in the 188-192cm range, he is a completely different player. He has versatility that the likes of Darling and Membrey don't. Up until this year, Marsh was a midfielder. A reasonably tall one, and a very fast one. He had worked hard to get his game to where it was, and I still think he offers great potential as a midfielder. But this year, he was thrown into the role as a CHF - with varying degrees of success. His marking game improved with the more games he played, and he is more than competing in the air and doesn't mind going for a big leap. It's his running power and elite speed which really sets him apart as a forward though, very few will be able to go with him on the lead or keep up when he runs back towards the goals. The ability to play small as a key forward shouldn't be underestimated. It's that sort of versatility that will likely see him going much earlier than what I have him.
6. Brisbane - Lewis Taylor (173cm, 73kg midfielder - Geelong)
It seems that every year now, there is one player under the 175cm mark who is pushing for top 10 selection. And generally, it's said that the only reason they aren't a top 3 selection is because of their height. We've seen Prestia and Smith, and this year that player is Lewis Taylor. Taylor shares quite a few traits with both of those players. Athletically, he is very good - both in terms of speed and agility. Maybe he wont test in the absolutely top bracket, but he seems to play quicker - and a large reason for that, is because he knows where to run and can hit the holes. As I've said elsewhere, I consider him a mix of Brent Harvey's outside run and Dion Prestia's inside wrecking ball style of player. Taylor will consistently win 25+ disposals, and is solid with his use of the ball. I could see him starting his career across half forward before making the permanent move into the midfield, because while he isn't the most natural crumber he can bob up for goals and should provide good defensive pressure.
7. North Melbourne - Luke McDonald (188cm, 80kg utility - Oakleigh)
The great white hope for North Melbourne, there is no doubt that they will select him and it's almost guaranteed that it will cost them their first round selection. I personally would have him somewhere in the 5-10 range, so it would be a good value pick for North regardless. I thought Luke McDonald was a little disappointing in the U18 Championships for Vic Metro, he won plenty of the ball and used it well but didn't really have a huge impact. And he played a largely uncontested game, I thought he could have done much more in the midfield given his physical stature. But, he'll play every game across half back for North Melbourne next year and will be a major upgrade on what they currently have. The kid is strong, attacks the ball and uses it very well by foot.
8. West Coast - Blake Acres (188cm, 84kg midfielder - West Perth)
The fact that Blake Acres missed the majority of the U18 Championships with a shoulder injury was probably the most disappointing thing to happen to the tournament. He was probably the one player that I really wanted to see, and he would have made the WA side so much more competitive as he adds something that little bit different to the rest of the WA midfielders - in fact, something different to most of the midfielders in the whole draft. For starters, he is a genuinely big midfielder - will still get a bit stronger, I saw someone describe him as 'rangy' and thats fairly accurate. Think his body and strength will develop as it has with Nat Fyfe. He is one of those players who just makes the game look easy, he is an absolute ball magnet, strong in the air and reads the play very well. And like Fyfe, he can play pretty much anywhere on the ground. Although, I think he'll go the opposite route and play as a half back/midfielder as opposed to going forward. He could be just as good as Birchall as a rebounding defender, with possibly a greater ability to play through the midfield. A top 10 talent, who I only have lower down due to somewhat limited viewings.
9. Carlton - Jack Billings (183cm, 78kg midfielder - Oakleigh)
I really don't know what I think about Jack Billings. I know some people rate him in the top 4 of this draft, with some recruiters liking him more than the South Australian pair at the top of my draft. But I just can't get excited about him. He has everything you'd want from a player - versatility, football smarts, excellent disposal and strong athletically. He has put up some very impressive games at TAC Cup level and as an underaged player last season in the U18 Championships. But, I can just see inconsistency being a major issue for him. He struggled to have an impact this year for Vic Metro, barely averaging over 12 disposals a game. I'm just not sure he becomes a genuine midfielder. So far he has made his name more as a medium forward, although I'd be tempted to develop him into a half back. He reads the play very well and can be damaging with his disposal - think he'd do better with the game unfolding infront of him, and being able to play as a loose man too.
10. GWS - Nathan Freeman (181cm, 85kg midfielder - Sandringham)
Nathan Freeman developed quite the bandwagon a couple of months ago, with some calling him the best midfielder in the draft. I've never really seen that. I think if you're picking Freeman, you're picking him based on what he could become - not what he is right now. He isn't the most consistent or dangerous midfielder in the TAC Cup, or even for Sandringham. He isn't a big goal kicker, often not having as much of an impact as he could forward of centre. And I personally don't think he is as good a kick as some make him out to be. But, he has flashed potential throughout the season. He has shown that he can kick goals, he has shown he can rack up the disposals with the best of them and he has shown excellent vision and decision making with his kicking. He just doesn't do it enough at this stage for me. What he does offer already though, is a strong body and excellent speed. And that is why he will go in the first round, somewhere in the 10-15 range in my opinion.
11. Port Adelaide - Luke Dunstan (185cm, 83kg midfielder - Woodville)
The captain of the South Australian side, if a team was after leadership and a future captain then Dunstan would likely be the first player picked in the draft. I'm finding him to be one of the harder players to place in the draft. His peformances over the last 18 months would suggest him to be a very early pick, in the SANFL U18s in particular he has just dominated. Consistently picking up 30+ touches and being named in the bests pretty much every week, as a 17 year old he was often overshadowing his older teammates. And he has carried that form through to the Championships this year. But something makes me think he could slide, just a tad. I'm not sure his kicking is quite as good as some people are making it out to be, I suppose he gets it done but its not always pretty to look at. The fact that he, more often than not, makes the right decisions certainly makes his disposal look a little better. But a 185cm inside midfielder who can also take a strong mark is always in demand, and you can afford him one slight weakness.
12. Essendon - Ben Lennon (187cm, 79kg utility - Northern Knights)
Lennon is probably the one player who I've changed my mind on the most. At one stage, I had him in the top 5 and I've also had him as low as about 15. And I don't really know where he will go come the draft, other than it will be somewhere in that quite large range. Where he goes will probably depend on what position clubs view him as playing - half forward, half back or midfield. Personally, I think it will be as a swingman capable of playing off either flank - even though his late season midfield form has been decent in the TAC Cup. I've seen some people compare him to Goddard, but he is more of a Robert Murphy for me. Lennon can play tall or small, and marks strongly in the air. With ball in hand, he is a smart player who can set up a lot of attack - I could see him making the high risk kicks into the centre corridor look easy. And that's why I like him best off of half back, where he can set up the game. Another player who has had consistency issues, and might take a couple of years to really nail down a set position.
13. Collingwood - Matthew Crouch (181cm, 80kg midfielder - North Ballarat)
In terms of the midfielders likely to come off the board early this year, there is a distinct lack of genuine inside ball winning midfielders. And this season, Matthew Crouch is clearly the best on offer. I would rate him alongside of Oliver Wines, not quite at his brother's level yet though. He is an absolute ball magnet, only having 30 disposals in the TAC Cup would be considered a quiet match for him as he is regularly hitting the 40 mark. Always at the bottom of the packs, Crouch is a natural in winning the contested ball and getting the quick handball out to his teammates. But he also reads the packs well, and can clear the ball himself with his run. A wrist injury meant he missed the first few weeks of the U18 Championships, but he returned in excellent form. And he used his time away to really improve his fitness base, which was one area in which he did need work. For an inside midfielder, he uses the ball pretty well on his left boot. At this stage, he doesn't have a huge impact on the scoreboard but that's a minor thing for a player of his type.
14. Richmond - Trent Dumont (185cm, 83kg midfielder - Norwood)
Almost the forgotten midfielder from South Australia, he just seems like one of those guys who will be forever underrated. We saw the same with the likes of Conca and Vlastuin in recent years, and both of them went in the top 10. Could it happen again? Dumont is a similar player to his teammate Dunstan - tall, strong midfielder who is a genuine ball winner. He can play inside and win his own ball, or work on the outside. Wouldn't surprise me if he began his career off of half back, before moving into the middle. Has a very good kick on him, really penetrates the lines and is just clean with everything he does. If anything, he probably doesn't have the turn of speed that teams may be looking for from such an early pick. But he does have good endurance, and that shouldn't be discounted. I can just see him coming in and having a real impact right from Round 1, he is doing just that in the SANFL seniors at the moment after all.
15. Sydney - Kade Kolodjashnij (188cm, 76kg utility - Launceston)
The form of Kade Kolodjashnij was one of the main stories coming out of the U18 Championships, and he has well and truly cemented his spot inside the first round. If Tasmania do one thing well, it's highlighting their best players. They did it last season with Thurlow, and this time they did whatever they could to show off Kade in the best possible light. While some may have him in top 10 calculations, he isn't quite there for me. But I'm happy to have him in the 15-20 range. It's easy to see why people like him though, height being the obvious one. He reads the play really well, zones off his man and is a very good uncontested mark in the back line. With ball in hand, he makes good decisions and is a nice clean kick. Given those attributes, it's no surprise he performed so well as a loose man/rebounding defender. I'd like to see a bit more in terms of actual midfield performances, because it's largely potential at this stage. Not entirely convinced he has the contested game to make a permanent midfield move, and I think he plays better when he can see the game unfolding in front of him as opposed to making it happen himself.
16. Fremantle - Cameron McCarthy (195cm, 89kg forward - South Fremantle)
One of the nicest surprises at the U18 Championships was the form of Cameron McCarthy. I'd been waiting to see which key position player would really step it up and put his name forward as an early selection, and without a doubt it was the big West Australian. His team really needed him to provide a target, and he did just that all tournament long. He's hard to miss out there on the field when he is flying for a mark, and I'm a firm believer that not enough AFL footballers wear headbands. He jumps high, attacks the ball at it's peak and more often than not will come down with it. McCarthy is still quite raw, his kicking technique is hardly textbook but it still gets results. All in all, he reminds me of Aaron Black from North Melbourne - and while it might take a couple of years to really see his best, I could see him following the same path. Obviously his Championships ended with a broken leg, but early reports put it in a different category to the career threatening tibia/fibula fractures that we've seen far too often recently. So I don't think it will hurt his status as the second best key forward in the draft.
17. Geelong - Dom Sheed (183cm, 82kg midfielder - Subiaco)
There is a lot to like about Dom Sheed, but there is something there which to me suggests he will go later than people may think. All season, I've had him around the 10-20 position and his impressive form in the Championships has done little to change my opinion. It's not the 'lack of speed' that you keep hearing, it's just that I'm not convinced he truly is 'elite'. Would you select a Jack Redden or Brad Ebert in the top 5 or 10? That's the type of player I would put Sheed alongside - pretty bloody good, but not someone who will take the AFL by storm. I like his inside midfield game, just has that ability to read the play better than others and come out of the packs with the ball. And while I wouldn't call him an elite user of the football, he always seems to make the right decisions. And if he can find the same amount of time and space at the next level, I'm sure we'll see the same thing again. One of the question marks I had over him was his versatility, and how damaging a midfielder he would be. But I was pleased to see him kick some goals for WA, because it's not something he has done a lot of before this last month.
18. Hawthorn - Marcus Bontempelli (191cm, 83kg midfielder - Northern Knights)
Possibly my favourite player in the draft, yes even ahead of the South Australians. At the start of the season I picked Marcus Bontempelli as my bolter, and I was talking him up to anyone who would listen. And I'm pleased to see more people jumping on board of the bandwagon. I've read people saying that if he grows a little more, that he would be KPP height. While that is true, the kid is a midfielder and could be something genuinely special at that height. In previous years, Marcus has played more as a flanker/outside midfielder. He is a rangy type player who moves really well, with both decent speed and a strong endurance base. Really nice leap on him, and he is a very good kick - both long and strong. The reason I'm such a fan is because of the improvements I've seen in his inside game, he is starting to really use his body well and he gets himself into good positions. I'm not saying he will be as good, but he could potentially develop into a Jobe Watson type - versatile, damaging and wins his own ball.
19. Gold Coast - Darcy Gardiner (192cm, 84kg defender - Geelong)
The general thoughts with Darcy Gardiner are that he is the best key defender in the draft, but that there isn't much competition behind him. So given that, is he really a first round pick? Or is his value inflated because of a lack of other options? Well, I'm of the opinion that he deserves to be talked about as an early pick on the back of his performances alone. Tomlinson from the Giants has had an excellent debut season, but I would have Gardiner slightly ahead in terms of their draft years. He has proven himself to be the best key defender in the TAC Cup, and was named the All Australian full back in the U18 Championships. Not the most attacking player, but he has gradually improved as the season has gone on and he isn't a liability with ball in hand. Ted Richards is probably the best comparison in my opinion as a defender. But Gardiner has also gone forward this season, taking some strong marks and kicking a few goals. So maybe that will be an option in a few years, but he'll play down back at first.