Draft Watcher Young Talent Time 2015

[cammo6556]

I think Milera's value lies in the fact that there aren't a lot of players like him in the draft, so he's possibly the best of a thin group. That sort of skillful outside midfielder/flanker, who can make things happen with few touches.

Personally, I really like Callum Ah Chee. He is primarily a stay at home forward, but a club might be fancy their chances of getting the most from him and pushing him up the ground. I'd give it a shot, at worst he could be a high half forward. Otherwise, I like Oleg Markov as a taller option and Maris Olekalns late draft. Davin Ferreira is a little Charlie Cameron like, he could be had as a rookie.

The one I like more than Milera is Aidyn Johnson from Vic Country. Didn't play in the Championships because of a quad injury, but he's faster and more dangerous around goals. Maybe third round a team takes a chance on him, depends on how he finishes the season. A bit like Hayden Crozier of Fremantle, talented half forward who could really push up into the midfield with a few years development.

so of all years to be looking for speedy mids, options are thin on the ground?

Cheers mate

 

[Chris25]

so of all years to be looking for speedy mids, options are thin on the ground?

Cheers mate

I think so. There are midfielders with pace, that's not an issue. But the better midfielders are more your solid all round prospects, as opposed to the game changing outside line breakers. Just have to trust your development coaches I suppose.

When are you doing your phantom draft?

Not sure when. Maybe in the next couple of weeks? I haven't really looked at other club's lists and their needs yet, so I'd just be guessing.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I think Milera's value lies in the fact that there aren't a lot of players like him in the draft, so he's possibly the best of a thin group. That sort of skillful outside midfielder/flanker, who can make things happen with few touches.

Personally, I really like Callum Ah Chee. He is primarily a stay at home forward, but a club might be fancy their chances of getting the most from him and pushing him up the ground. I'd give it a shot, at worst he could be a high half forward. Otherwise, I like Oleg Markov as a taller option and Maris Olekalns late draft. Davin Ferreira is a little Charlie Cameron like, he could be had as a rookie.

The one I like more than Milera is Aidyn Johnson from Vic Country. Didn't play in the Championships because of a quad injury, but he's faster and more dangerous around goals. Maybe third round a team takes a chance on him, depends on how he finishes the season. A bit like Hayden Crozier of Fremantle, talented half forward who could really push up into the midfield with a few years development.

I think the crows should look strongly at ah chee, he's just a talent and would add some cream to their inside mid contested mob which they have in spades

Reckon he plays high half forward and even pushes into midfield with greater training at AFL level

If we get 2 high picks if danger leaves reckon riley Bonner would be in mix as a 191cm half back that could also push into midfield and give them some kicking skills they desperately need

 

[Chris25]

I think the crows should look strongly at ah chee, he's just a talent and would add some cream to their inside mid contested mob which they have in spades

Reckon he plays high half forward and even pushes into midfield with greater training at AFL level

If we get 2 high picks if danger leaves reckon riley Bonner would be in mix as a 191cm half back that could also push into midfield and give them some kicking skills they desperately need

Ah Chee would be a great pick for Adelaide. Even if he doesn't make it as a high half forward/midfielder, he adds something different to Betts and Cameron who are more your crumbing small forwards. But you're right, Adelaide have the foundations now in the midfield. They can start to look at adding the cream. Considering Ellis-Yolmen isn't even getting a game every week, they're fairly well stocked on the inside. Side note, it's good to see Ellis-Yolmen starting to live up to his talent. I picked him at #29 in the 2011 BigFooty Phantom Draft, he could end up being one of my better calls.

If they can secure either of the two young Giants, that would certainly give them another element too.

 

[Forward We Go]

Do you rate Hipwood? And around what pick do you think a club will bid on him?

Up until mid last season, Hipwood has played all his junior footy on the wing or mid field. It wasn't until he started to play senior footy last year that he was moved into the forward line primarily because of his significant growth spurt over the last 12 months. He has a big engine which allows him to run all day even now at over 200cms. That being said, he now has been used all over the ground primarily as a key back or key forward which is a pretty versatile ability to have. (Never played back in his life until this year.) He was born in Melbourne and moved up to QLD in 2000 & still has a lot of family down in Melbourne which would make him a little more attractive for Melbourne clubs to consider. Keays is the same being born in Melbourne as well.
As to where he ends up really depends on whether the Lions are prepared to match a bid that comes before they have a chance to pick him relative to their positions in the draft. With maybe 5-6 Brisbane Academy kids being possible draftees this year, it makes it very interesting how the draft will unfold for ALL the Lions Academy boys.

 

[Chris25]

Do you rate Hipwood? And around what pick do you think a club will bid on him?

I do rate Hipwood, I think it's a bit reactionary to have him top 5 or 10 and that's probably more an Academy thing than anything else. I personally prefer the more traditional KPPs like Collins and Weideman, and the shorter Burton and Curnow too. I'd also have McKay ahead as a forward. Hipwood is more your prototypical KPP, the tall who plays like a small in terms of ball winning ability. But if I'm looking for a guy to build around, I'm still in favour of the tried and tested type.

I have some question marks, mainly over his ability to be a true #1 or even #2 tall. It will probably depend on what end of the ground he plays at, he hasn't really cemented himself in either position yet. Hopefully he is settled into the one position straight away, and the club doesn't mess around with him as a swingman. More often than not that just impedes player development. His kicking also worries me, I imagine he'll keep winning lots of touches because the opposition wont mind the ball being in his hands. So he'll need to tidy that up.

I see his ceiling as being something along the lines of Lachie Hansen, and would personally bid anywhere from around the 15-25 mark.

 

[Eons]

Do you think after us getting Harris Andrews for a steal last year and the immediate impact he has had that clubs will be more likely to bid a bit higher on Hipwood? Andrews looks like an absolute star and IMO was worthy of a top 10 pick. Just wondering where you rated Andrews last year and how similar are Andrews and Hipwood as players?

 

[Chris25]

For the bottom ranked clubs, the thing that often turns the club around are the hard decisions that have to be made. More often that relates to older players being moved on or trading away big name players for draft picks. But hard decisions are made in the draft too. Particularly in the first round and even more so now with Academy players.

So I thought I would look at some of the hard calls I would make to turn a club around...

Bailey Rice nominates Carlton, Carlton don't reciprocate

Having a father son prospect is always fun, and the fan base is guaranteed to love it - especially when you beat out another club for that player. But nostalgia only gets you so far. Building a quality list as a whole is more important. And in my probably uneducated opinion, Carlton have one of the worst midfields in the league. The only player guaranteed to still be there in 5 years time is Patrick Cripps, and that's a problem. It doesn't matter what you have at either end if your midfield gets beaten every week. The one thing that Carlton do have though are half backs - Tuohy, Yarran and Buckley are good enough to play a role down back. While Smith, Viojo-Rainbow and Docherty are just three other options. They have young players with talent at that position, they just need to be developed well.

Which brings us to Bailey Rice. He's looked a good player this year, with solid skills and seems to be getting better as the season progresses. I'd rate him a solid third round prospect in this draft. But I think he's limited to playing off the half back flank, I don't see much of a midfield game in him. And that's where the issue lies. Do Carlton need another half back flanker?

At a guess, I'd say Rice is nominated somewhere around the 30 mark. Which means that Carlton would probably only need to use their third round pick, given the discount applied. So it's not that big of an investment, especially as that's what I would value Rice as. But I think Carlton need a complete overhaul of the midfield, and should draft nothing but genuine midfielders. It would be a very big call, but a good midfielder outweighs a good half back. They just need to draft well, because hindsight shows there are always bargain buys.

Don't be greedy, one Academy player is enough

Brisbane and GWS are lucky enough to have a number of Academy prospects this year. The Lions have Keays and Hipwood who seem to be improving their stocks as the season progresses, while the Giants have both Hopper and Kennedy as first round chances. And that's not even factoring in some of the other options such as Himmelberg, Williams, Flynn and Cornell. But it's the early picks that can change the whole draft.

For the Lions, matching first round bids for both Keays and Hipwood would wipe out their whole draft. And potentially affect their chances of drafting Allison in 2016. So they might need to make a call between the two. And if it comes to that, they should decline to match the bid on Hipwood. Young defenders Clarke, Andrews and Gardiner are players to build around while McStay arguably looks better down back. And assuming Schache goes to Brisbane with one of the first two picks, their forward line is suddenly looking much more settled. They could then use the draft picks they would have used on Hipwood, to fill more pressing areas of need such as small and medium forwards. While Keays settles into the midfield.

As for the decision facing the Giants, it's much more simple. They just don't need both Kennedy and Hopper. As good as they are, they're similar players and the Giants are stacked for midfield talent, while they may be more interested in saving some picks for their other Academy prospects later. So who do they take? For me, it's Hopper. The more dominant inside player, who also has a younger brother in the Academy too. Who knows if he'll develop into a prospect too, but just in case, they should keep the Hopper's happy. Although having said that, they could easily trade for more picks to afford both Hopper and Kennedy.

Meat and potatoes first, dessert later

Back to Carlton and their midfield, they can't get sucked into hype with their first pick. For the purpose of this post, I'm going to assume they finish with the third pick and both Schache and Weitering are off the board. In which case, the sexier picks may be the likes of Francis and Curnow. They could develop into anything, but not for a team at the start of their rebuild.

There should be only three players on their mind - Mills, Parish and Hopper. The three best genuine midfielders on the board. There are more exciting players available, including reaching for a tall of their own, but they'll be the smarter picks. Mills and Hopper would form a dangerous pairing with Cripps in years to come, while Parish would break the lines open after Cripps breaks the packs apart.

And this philosophy should continue into the second and third rounds too.

No more best available, it's time to reach

I had to include something about Fremantle in here, even though they wont be facing too many hard calls given they'll be picking towards the back end of the draft. But it's time to abandon their draft philosophy of prevous years - the philosophy of drafting best available regardless of position. That got us Weller, Blakely, Langdon and DeLuca last year. And I don't think anyone would complain about that. But it's time to focus on needs.

Key forwards and key defenders have to be the priority this year, even if the talent pool isn't the deepest. Hopefully a Weideman or Collins drops in the first round, otherwise it could mean reaching for a Dylan Smith, Sam Skinner or one of the McKay brothers. Or investing in the smaller Harry Himmelberg, Ryan Burton and Callum Moore. They can't be afraid of the results, and just trust that they'll find at least one KPP of the future amongst their picks.

 

[KissKiss]

Don't be greedy, one Academy player is enough

For the Lions, matching first round bids for both Keays and Hipwood would wipe out their whole draft. And potentially affect their chances of drafting Allison in 2016. So they might need to make a call between the two. And if it comes to that, they should decline to match the bid on Hipwood. Young defenders Clarke, Andrews and Gardiner are players to build around while McStay arguably looks better down back. And assuming Schache goes to Brisbane with one of the first two picks, their forward line is suddenly looking much more settled. They could then use the draft picks they would have used on Hipwood, to fill more pressing areas of need such as small and medium forwards. While Keays settles into the midfield.

It's an interesting argument and it also agrees with the thought in mind that it's Schache or Francis (if we don't finish last). While Wietering might be best available, the back line is just not currently lacking for young talls (especially if we take Hipwood)

 

[jjami15]

Sorry Chris but in relation to your notion about only taking one academy pick I have to disagree with you. Looking at the lions list and especially those in the <23 age we are bereft of top line talent and if as most pundits have called that both will be bid on in the teens you would then have the Lions say, "no thanks that's too greedy to have both and we would rather use our later picks in a shallow draft." We need as much top line talent ASAP and we need to take both IF the Lions rate them highly.

Agree with the notion about trading out older players to gain further picks and rebuild. I personally was saying earlier in the year that the Lions should be doing this and even though it is going to hurt short term we have to look longer term.

 

[Chris25]

I don't expect many, if any, to agree with the idea. Especially Brisbane and Carton fans who have their hearts set on their respective players, it is easier to theorise as an outsider. But looking at the cost does make it an interesting argument. Particularly if it was to send Brisbane into a deficit, affecting next years draft. And the other factor is trade week, and whether the Lions do look to bring someone like Charlie Dixon in. That potentially eats into the bank, and it's another KPP being added to the list. And it's all well and good to say they can just trade for more picks, but they don't exactly have the talent in the reserves that GWS do. Maybe James Aish decides he does want out, but otherwise I struggle to see anyone else with value.

Hipwood is no sure thing as an actual KPP, whereas as I said before Brisbane have some good young talls to play with already. They could potentially decide to try to trade in talent, keep all of their picks in 2016 and try their hand in the later rounds this year with some goal kickers - like a Markov, Kirbatieh, Hardwick or Redman.

Highly unlikely it happens, but it gives us something to talk about.

 

[BluesRule]

I don't expect many, if any, to agree with the idea. Especially Brisbane and Carton fans who have their hearts set on their respective players, it is easier to theorise as an outsider. But looking at the cost does make it an interesting argument. Particularly if it was to send Brisbane into a deficit, affecting next years draft. And the other factor is trade week, and whether the Lions do look to bring someone like Charlie Dixon in. That potentially eats into the bank, and it's another KPP being added to the list. And it's all well and good to say they can just trade for more picks, but they don't exactly have the talent in the reserves that GWS do. Maybe James Aish decides he does want out, but otherwise I struggle to see anyone else with value.

Hipwood is no sure thing as an actual KPP, whereas as I said before Brisbane have some good young talls to play with already. They could potentially decide to try to trade in talent, keep all of their picks in 2016 and try their hand in the later rounds this year with some goal kickers - like a Markov, Kirbatieh, Hardwick or Redman.

Highly unlikely it happens, but it gives us something to talk about.

Brisbane will get some draft pick(s) for Aish if he goes, so getting the discount on the 2 very good local players from their academy would be a smart move. Will be interesting to see how the new system goes and how many clubs are prepared to take the risk that they may lose an academy kid in two years if they jump in early to steal one. Especially when the alternative picks offer similar talent without the risk.

 

[BluesRule]

For the bottom ranked clubs, the thing that often turns the club around are the hard decisions that have to be made. More often that relates to older players being moved on or trading away big name players for draft picks. But hard decisions are made in the draft too. Particularly in the first round and even more so now with Academy players.

So I thought I would look at some of the hard calls I would make to turn a club around...

Bailey Rice nominates Carlton, Carlton don't reciprocate

Having a father son prospect is always fun, and the fan base is guaranteed to love it - especially when you beat out another club for that player. But nostalgia only gets you so far. Building a quality list as a whole is more important. And in my probably uneducated opinion, Carlton have one of the worst midfields in the league. The only player guaranteed to still be there in 5 years time is Patrick Cripps, and that's a problem. It doesn't matter what you have at either end if your midfield gets beaten every week. The one thing that Carlton do have though are half backs - Tuohy, Yarran and Buckley are good enough to play a role down back. While Smith, Viojo-Rainbow and Docherty are just three other options. They have young players with talent at that position, they just need to be developed well.

Which brings us to Bailey Rice. He's looked a good player this year, with solid skills and seems to be getting better as the season progresses. I'd rate him a solid third round prospect in this draft. But I think he's limited to playing off the half back flank, I don't see much of a midfield game in him. And that's where the issue lies. Do Carlton need another half back flanker?

At a guess, I'd say Rice is nominated somewhere around the 30 mark. Which means that Carlton would probably only need to use their third round pick, given the discount applied. So it's not that big of an investment, especially as that's what I would value Rice as. But I think Carlton need a complete overhaul of the midfield, and should draft nothing but genuine midfielders. It would be a very big call, but a good midfielder outweighs a good half back. They just need to draft well, because hindsight shows there are always bargain buys.

Don't be greedy, one Academy player is enough

Brisbane and GWS are lucky enough to have a number of Academy prospects this year. The Lions have Keays and Hipwood who seem to be improving their stocks as the season progresses, while the Giants have both Hopper and Kennedy as first round chances. And that's not even factoring in some of the other options such as Himmelberg, Williams, Flynn and Cornell. But it's the early picks that can change the whole draft.

For the Lions, matching first round bids for both Keays and Hipwood would wipe out their whole draft. And potentially affect their chances of drafting Allison in 2016. So they might need to make a call between the two. And if it comes to that, they should decline to match the bid on Hipwood. Young defenders Clarke, Andrews and Gardiner are players to build around while McStay arguably looks better down back. And assuming Schache goes to Brisbane with one of the first two picks, their forward line is suddenly looking much more settled. They could then use the draft picks they would have used on Hipwood, to fill more pressing areas of need such as small and medium forwards. While Keays settles into the midfield.

As for the decision facing the Giants, it's much more simple. They just don't need both Kennedy and Hopper. As good as they are, they're similar players and the Giants are stacked for midfield talent, while they may be more interested in saving some picks for their other Academy prospects later. So who do they take? For me, it's Hopper. The more dominant inside player, who also has a younger brother in the Academy too. Who knows if he'll develop into a prospect too, but just in case, they should keep the Hopper's happy. Although having said that, they could easily trade for more picks to afford both Hopper and Kennedy.

Meat and potatoes first, dessert later

Back to Carlton and their midfield, they can't get sucked into hype with their first pick. For the purpose of this post, I'm going to assume they finish with the third pick and both Schache and Weitering are off the board. In which case, the sexier picks may be the likes of Francis and Curnow. They could develop into anything, but not for a team at the start of their rebuild.

There should be only three players on their mind - Mills, Parish and Hopper. The three best genuine midfielders on the board. There are more exciting players available, including reaching for a tall of their own, but they'll be the smarter picks. Mills and Hopper would form a dangerous pairing with Cripps in years to come, while Parish would break the lines open after Cripps breaks the packs apart.

And this philosophy should continue into the second and third rounds too.

No more best available, it's time to reach

I had to include something about Fremantle in here, even though they wont be facing too many hard calls given they'll be picking towards the back end of the draft. But it's time to abandon their draft philosophy of prevous years - the philosophy of drafting best available regardless of position. That got us Weller, Blakely, Langdon and DeLuca last year. And I don't think anyone would complain about that. But it's time to focus on needs.

Key forwards and key defenders have to be the priority this year, even if the talent pool isn't the deepest. Hopefully a Weideman or Collins drops in the first round, otherwise it could mean reaching for a Dylan Smith, Sam Skinner or one of the McKay brothers. Or investing in the smaller Harry Himmelberg, Ryan Burton and Callum Moore. They can't be afraid of the results, and just trust that they'll find at least one KPP of the future amongst their picks.

Carlton have many issues, so best available is a still very good policy IMO. Weitering (if available) will be a good replacement for Jamison/Rowe so more than happy to take a KPD. We need a Key Forward. Impossible to replace Judd, but we still have a few guys who can run through the middle like Thomas (if he gets back to his best), Murphy, Gibbs, Cripps, Yarran (if he stays) and we can develop Graham and others around these guys. Carlton are probably 5 good players away from making finals again as we lack depth (and a coach).

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Chris do you think Freo and Wce will use there first pick this year ?

I believe both clubs may trade it away this year.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Chris do you think Freo and Wce will use there first pick this year ?

I believe both clubs may trade it away this year.

Stories seem to suggest that Dixon has rejected the Dockers, so they may have their first pick.

 

[Chris25]

I should have my actual phantom draft up soon. The picks are done, I just have to work out how much writing to include at this stage.

Chris do you think Freo and Wce will use there first pick this year ?

I believe both clubs may trade it away this year.

Not that I have any inside info, but I imagine both clubs would be happy to trade away their first pick. Fremantle for a tall, West Coast for some outside run? Who knows if it'll happen, but they should both be having talks.

 

[Chris25]

Edited in my mock draft to the first page, posts 3 and 4.

 

[TerryWallet]

I really like that phantom Chris. I agree with the great bulk of it, which is rare because everyone has different opinions.

Couple of points:

Agree with the high rating of AhChee and Curnow. Maybe Ah Chee a couple spots too high...but only a couple.

I note you rate Francis higher than 8 and i'd like to be as sure of winning Tatts that he will go in Top 5. I rate him equal 2nd with Mills and Schache.

Like your selection of Clark around 20-25.

Agree on Nash Holmes, even have him a bit higher at around 25-30. One of Holmes' kicks in the Carnival was Mundy/Goddard esqe.

And just on Callum Mills. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Swans get him cheaper than people think. Pragmatism will play a part in this new bidding system. Mills is Sydney through and through, being in their Academy since a very young teen and his father being very close friends with Sydney Chairman Pridham. I reckon a Club with a Top 5 or 6 pick would be loathe to bid on Mills and have Sydney let them have him for 2 years. I know it will be unlikely that Sydney won't match, but it is a chance if the bid is very high, and a chance that those Clubs with high picks might be reluctant to take for no reward except hurting Sydney. Clubs have self interest as their ONLY guiding principle.

I reckon why do Essendon, Melbourne, StKilda, and maybe even Port risk being left with developing a kid for 2 years just for him to go home. After say, Port's pick, Sydney will 100% match, but any higher, why would the Club's risk a bad scenario for themselves when they can take another elite talent that they have certainty on and can sell to their membership as a certain central cog of their future.

Also why would they give their fans the slight psychological knock of their Top 5-6 selection only being their 2nd preferred behind Mills?

I hope that all makes sense. I guess i'm just saying that i wouldn't be surprised to see Mills get a lower bid than expected. My theory doesn't apply to, say, Hopper because i don't think Clubs will be afraid of being left with him by an unmatched bid. He is already in Melbourne plying his trade and could easily stay longterm at the Club that bids for him.

 

[Chris25]

Also why would they give their fans the slight psychological knock of their Top 5-6 selection only being their 2nd preferred behind Mills?

This is something I've often wondered about. It would be easy to enough to justify - Essendon saying they had Mills and Balic rated equally for example, and will do whatever it takes to improve their football club. Blah blah blah. But it does still send that message that they missed the guy they really wanted. It shouldn't matter though, but you never know. Image is everything.

Don't think we'll see a club bid twice in the first round though.

 

[doug85]

Do you do any stratification of the draft?

E.g. x amount of potential A graders et cetera?

 

[Chris25]

Do you do any stratification of the draft?

E.g. x amount of potential A graders et cetera?

I don't really see the point. It's always pretty arbitrary. It's safe to assume that the A graders are at the top, and the quality decreases as it goes down. But drawing those sort of random lines doesn't really take into account positions or needs. Someone might not be very talented on the grand scheme of things, but still play a lot of football as a small defender for example.

 

[doug85]

Cheers Chris.

Do you have any comment on the overall quality then?

My understanding is that this is a poor draft. I anticipate essendon to have a few high picks this year so I'm hoping that isn't the case.

 

[Chris25]

Cheers Chris.

Do you have any comment on the overall quality then?

My understanding is that this is a poor draft. I anticipate essendon to have a few high picks this year so I'm hoping that isn't the case.

I'd say it's reasonably poor in terms of depth.

First round is fine, second is on par with most years. But I don't anticipate too many picks past 50. There'll be some bargains no doubt, there always are. But teams wont be delisting a lot of players and loading up on picks. The fact that I have Mitch Brown at #40 and 10 players who could have been drafted last year but were overlooked says a lot about this draft class.

 

[Seymour Skinner]

Was glad to see you have Hodgson, Couglahn, and Himmelberg getting a chance this year. Big fan of Hodgson.

What are your thoughts of a couple of other 19 year olds in Mahady and Mattingly getting a look in this time round?

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Great effort like your draft for Melbourne tall - mid -tall works well imo