Prediction Your Essendon 2025 season predictions. Right or Left field.

[thebigboy]

We will play finals in 2025.

For all of the talk about how we were a long way away last year performance-wise (valid call), we lost a game kicking 1.10 against the Suns that we had no right to lose & a monumental game-management fail against the Crows, both of which we were the better side. Reverse those results, we finish 8th.

 

[fanuch]

If we re write history then the Crows get the Draper free kick in the first game and we still miss finals

 

[thebigboy]

If we re write history then the Crows get the Draper free kick in the first game and we still miss finals

And Kyle Langford doesn't miss from 35 mtrs out on ANZAC Day.

It's not necessarily about re-writing history, it was my (poorly worded) attempt to use those games to highlight 2 areas in which I would expect to see significant growth in 2025, and highlight the fact that for all of the bottom 4 etc. predictions externally, that we're not that far away from a Top 8 berth IMO

 

[jdstorm]

had one of the worst transition teams in the comp the last few years.

Hopefully a bit of health and a bit of draft luck moves us into the middle of the pack in transition points.

Should improve our percentage a bunch if we can get more easy points

 

[bombreys]

And Kyle Langford doesn't miss from 35 mtrs out on ANZAC Day.

It's not necessarily about re-writing history, it was my (poorly worded) attempt to use those games to highlight 2 areas in which I would expect to see significant growth in 2025, and highlight the fact that for all of the bottom 4 etc. predictions externally, that we're not that far away from a Top 8 berth IMO

You finish where you're supposed to finish though. A 24-round season removes 99% of luck from the equation. We finished at 11th on the ladder - if you look at our list, that's about right. There's a little bit of give and take, but anyone that says we're better than ~9th or worse than ~13th is probably kidding themselves.

 

[jdstorm]

You finish where you're supposed to finish though. A 24-round season removes 99% of luck from the equation. We finished at 11th on the ladder - if you look at our list, that's about right. There's a little bit of give and take, but anyone that says we're better than ~9th or worse than ~13th is probably kidding themselves.

Yes and no.
Removes luck not questionable selection nor indifference (stringer)

sometimes teams due to poor list construction have significant bottlenecks where adding the right replacement level player here or there makes a huge difference.

I think it’s reasonable to assume significant improvement if healthy(even if it doesn’t result in many wins)

 

[thebigboy]

You finish where you're supposed to finish though. A 24-round season removes 99% of luck from the equation. We finished at 11th on the ladder - if you look at our list, that's about right. There's a little bit of give and take, but anyone that says we're better than ~9th or worse than ~13th is probably kidding themselves.

Many people in January wouldn't have had the Hawks making & winning a final, so January predictions aren't worth the paper they're written on mostly. And if anyone claims they did, they are full of shit.

It's more talking about in-game situations across those 2 games that should be easy for us to improve and trying to make the point that if we can make small gains in those areas, you can jump up quite easily. Gains in those 2 areas are more preparation and mental strength-based rather than talent IMO.

 

[MiguelM]

Impossible to guess.

On one hand we have lost experience with Heppell, Stringer, Kelly but at the same time these were players that hampered us in many games. Also, Langford playing injured was a killer.

Can we cover Stringer's 42 goals? I would like to think we can do better as a forward line with better small forward in Kako and Caddy another preseason under his belt. The unknowns are will 2MP regain form and can Perkins get some consistency now he is training for a fwd spot.

Midfield looks strong if we can keep Parish fit. Tsatas inclusion will hopefully take some pressure off Caldwell & Durham so they don't burnout late in the season.

Down back the biggest x factor is can we keep Reid fit. Could be huge. Merrett down back will be good. Prior could be a handy ready made player too.

Could go either way but should be improvement across the board. Of course some other teame will improve also so may not mean higher ladder position.

Our % will tell a big story on our improvement IMO.

 

[Milanista28]

Expect to finish between 7th and 14th, not surprised if we finish bottom 4, absolutely shocked if we finish top 4.

 

[Squeaky]

We will play finals in 2025.

Can't see us making finals.
Sure we play the same sport (AFL) but compared to the teams in the finals, the sport we play is the only similarity.
They are so much more organised, selfless, desperate & skilled.
When finals matches come - it is a stark difference & highlights to me how 'not up to it' we are

Half way through the 24 season I thought we had closed the gap, (ANZAC, Dogs & GWS games) but it was clear at the end of the year that we are way off... again! We never hit the heights of the GWS game again during the remainder of 2024.

I hope we just build based on effort, dependability & consistency - then layer in the skills & the nous later on.
Then, we will have a base to build on.
If we can do all of that, 2026 might be a better year for us.

Also - we don't need Scott making some fundamental selection howlers. Eg. If it rains - don't be tall!
Clean all that up & it might nearly be bearable.

 

[jdstorm]

Expect to finish between 7th and 14th, not surprised if we finish bottom 4, absolutely shocked if we finish top 4.

I can see a path to top 4. Would be suprised but not shocked.

Also not shocked at bottom 4 so classic Essendon

 

[supportyourteam]

Half way through the 24 season I thought we had closed the gap, (ANZAC, Dogs & GWS games) but it was clear at the end of the year that we are way off... again! We never hit the heights of the GWS game again during the remainder of 2024.

The second Collingwood game was the real change of attitude. In Essendon world it was the 2024 premiership. Relaxed afterwards. The 2025 Essendon premiership will be beating Geelong. 2026 might be winning a final. You never know your luck on the half forward flank.

 

[Squeaky]

The second Collingwood game was the real change of attitude. In Essendon world it was the 2024 premiership. Relaxed afterwards. The 2025 Essendon premiership will be beating Geelong. 2026 might be winning a final. You never know your luck on the half forward flank.

I reckon we had already shown our (fading) colours by the Friday night game vs Collingwood.
We were just going marginally better than them at the time and we got the win - but not much to write home about in that game. IMO, of course.

 

[brutus76]

10th-14th
VFL side will WIN a final
Caddy and Kako will have 30 goals each and the Caddy/Jones combo will work nicely
Tsatas will light it up
Ridley and Reid will show why they need to be 100% as they are the cornerstone of the future
Draper will do something stupid off field - Bryan will usurp him in a real progression year for Nick
Perks will become a Langers type and will be more intense at the contest and will take mark of the year
Shiel will retire mid season to give us a MSD spot as whilst his mind his keen his soft tissue legs are shot
Coxy and 2MP will dominate the VFL but their AFL careers are done

 

[Call Me Cake]

Shiel will retire mid season to give us a MSD spot

Think that'll be Goldy tbh.

 

[bombreys]

Yes and no.
Removes luck not questionable selection nor indifference (stringer)

sometimes teams due to poor list construction have significant bottlenecks where adding the right replacement level player here or there makes a huge difference.

I think it’s reasonable to assume significant improvement if healthy(even if it doesn’t result in many wins)

What have we done to improve the list construction though? I don't think our list is awful, but I also don't think it's anywhere near top 8. We lose three genuine best 22 players in Stringer, Kelly & Heppell - as well as a fringe guy in Hind.

Remember, those guys are likely going to be replaced by players that were deemed not good enough for AFL in 2024.

 

[bombreys]

Many people in January wouldn't have had the Hawks making & winning a final, so January predictions aren't worth the paper they're written on mostly. And if anyone claims they did, they are full of shit.

It's more talking about in-game situations across those 2 games that should be easy for us to improve and trying to make the point that if we can make small gains in those areas, you can jump up quite easily. Gains in those 2 areas are more preparation and mental strength-based rather than talent IMO.

The Hawks are the exception though - there are always anomalies. I wouldn't predict 2025 to be a year we improve given the way we seem to be going with the list. The majority of posters had us winning a final in 2024 - supporters always overrate their own.

 

[doug85]

Massive breakout year for Tsatas. He’ll make the AA squad but not the final team.

A fit Reid will play 20 games and prove to be a star of the future.

Caddy will boot 35 goals

 

[jdstorm]

What have we done to improve the list construction though? I don't think our list is awful, but I also don't think it's anywhere near top 8. We lose three genuine best 22 players in Stringer, Kelly & Heppell - as well as a fringe guy in Hind.

Remember, those guys are likely going to be replaced by players that were deemed not good enough for AFL in 2024.

Last season we deemed an AA wing not good enough to play AFL and gave him away for a late pick. So don’t think that means much.

If we compare this years likely starting team to the team that finished last season.

McGrath McKay Ridley
Redman Reid Sheil
Martin Merrett Dursma
Bryan Durham Caldwell
Kako Caddy Perkins
Langford Draper Gresham
Ic Roberts, Parish, Tsatas, Jones


OUT: laverde, Heppell, Kelly, Stringer Guelfi
In: Reid Ridley Dursma Tsatas Kako

That’s 20% of the team including adding 3 top 10 picks and 1 AA defender:

adding health alongside Saad, Prior and Kako helps our transition immensely and that’s before having hope for Clarke, Johnson, Unwin, Nguyen who as first year outside players are potentially capable of playing their roles at AFL level if needed.

We have decent tall depth and no longer have to try and fit stringer into a side where he doesn’t work.

 

[Agronomus]

What have we done to improve the list construction though? I don't think our list is awful, but I also don't think it's anywhere near top 8. We lose three genuine best 22 players in Stringer, Kelly & Heppell - as well as a fringe guy in Hind.

Remember, those guys are likely going to be replaced by players that were deemed not good enough for AFL in 2024.

You answered your own question in the third sentence

 

[ant555]

What have we done to improve the list construction though? I don't think our list is awful, but I also don't think it's anywhere near top 8. We lose three genuine best 22 players in Stringer, Kelly & Heppell - as well as a fringe guy in Hind.

Remember, those guys are likely going to be replaced by players that were deemed not good enough for AFL in 2024.

Any improvement will have to be internal development. Young players being better and another small step in game plan. That is why this year is a mystery. Of course a few less injuries to top end players would help.

Fully fit Ridley / Reid / Parish / Langford (full season) will help.

I know it is January but having had a first hand look at Tsatas in match sim he looks to have taken a step forward.

Kako will have an impact as far as forward pressure goes based on what I have seen.

Davey is further advanced from last year.

The theme the coaches are really hammering in all drills and match sim is set up the ground. Once the ball has moved on players have to set up defensively. It is a constant.
Just looking at match sim it is a higher temp ball movement with McGrath / Shiel / Merrett / Redman all taking some of the role Martin had .

So yeah. Not much improvement personal wise so it will be a work in progress based on player advancement and a step up in game style.

 

[Runk]

Just throwing it out there:

• Josh Caddy & Isaac Kako will establish themselves as genuine future superstars of the game
• The Essendon backline will still be a dysfunctional mess despite a fit & healthy Reid & Ridley
• Nick Bryan will cement himself as our Number #1 ruck choice
• Alwyn Davey Jnr will be delisted come end of season
• Sam Draper will leave at the end of the season to go back to Adelaide leading us to receive compensation picks
• We will talk to clubs about trading Darcy Parish
• We will not make finals

 

[Squeaky]

Just throwing it out there:

• Josh Caddy & Isaac Kako will establish themselves as genuine future superstars of the game
• The Essendon backline will still be a dysfunctional mess despite a fit & healthy Reid & Ridley
• Nick Bryan will cement himself as our Number #1 ruck choice
• Alwyn Davey Jnr will be delisted come end of season
• Sam Draper will leave at the end of the season to go back to Adelaide leading us to receive compensation picks
• We will talk to clubs about trading Darcy Parish
• We will not make finals

Pretty realistic predictions.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

We will play finals in 2025.

For all of the talk about how we were a long way away last year performance-wise (valid call), we lost a game kicking 1.10 against the Suns that we had no right to lose & a monumental game-management fail against the Crows, both of which we were the better side. Reverse those results, we finish 8th.

i don't see it, but i like it!

 

[jdstorm]

I feel like people are underestimating just how much Addition by subtraction letting Jake Stringer go will bring.

He played 3 roles last season and couldn’t do any of them at the consistency required for AFL level.

Tall forward - too small
Pressure forward - too slow probably gave up more goals than he kicked.
Midfield - looked best here but couldn’t maintain effort for 4 quarters across multiple games.

Having a properly structured forward line
(Predicted to be Draper Caddy Langford Perkins Gresham Kako) will be huge even before considering adding Kako’s talent to that group.

Same as being able to have a 2nd bigger midfielder who can run out a game should help the mid mix a lot.