Geelong vs. Brisbane Lions Saturday September 21 2024 5.15pm AEST

The second AFL preliminary final between Geelong and the Brisbane Lions on Saturday, September 21, 2024, promises to be a fierce contest. Both teams are just one win away from reaching the Grand Final, and recent form, historical results, and current player performances all suggest this will be a highly competitive match.

Team Form Over the Last Three Weeks

Geelong Cats:
Geelong enters this match as favorites, riding high after their dominant 84-point thrashing of Port Adelaide in the qualifying final. The Cats have been in excellent form throughout the season, and their recent performances, including a win over St. Kilda in Round 23 and a commanding 93-point win against West Coast in Round 24, demonstrate their ability to dominate opponents. Notably, they have won three of their last five meetings against Brisbane, and their strong finals history, including a 71-point preliminary final win against Brisbane in 2022, gives them confidence going into this clash.

Brisbane Lions:
The Lions, meanwhile, are coming off one of the greatest finals comebacks in recent history. In the semi-final, they rallied from 44 points down to defeat GWS by five points in a thrilling finish. However, Brisbane’s record at the MCG is a concern, as they have only won two out of 18 games at the venue since 2015. They will need to overcome their struggles at the ‘G and channel their strong finish to get past a well-drilled Geelong side.

Head-to-Head
Historically, Geelong has had the upper hand in this matchup. They won the only meeting between the two teams earlier this season, restricting Brisbane to just 37 points in a rain-soaked contest. Additionally, the Cats defeated Brisbane by a significant margin in the 2022 preliminary final. Brisbane will need to break this trend if they are to make it to the Grand Final.

Key Players to Watch

  • Geelong Cats: Jeremy Cameron has been in outstanding form throughout the finals, while Patrick Dangerfield’s midfield leadership remains crucial for the Cats’ success. Watch for Tom Stewart to anchor the defense, as he often plays a pivotal role in shutting down opposition attacks.
  • Brisbane Lions: Joe Daniher will need to replicate his semi-final heroics, while Lachie Neale, the Lions’ midfield maestro, must be at his best to lead the charge. If Oscar McInerney can return and dominate the ruck, Brisbane could have an edge in clearances.

Tactical Battle
Geelong’s defense, led by Stewart and Jake Kolodjashnij, will focus on neutralizing Brisbane’s dangerous forward line, including Daniher and Charlie Cameron. The Cats will likely look to control the tempo with their precise ball movement, while Brisbane will aim to play fast, direct football and exploit Geelong’s occasional lapses in defense.

Prediction
While Brisbane showed tremendous resilience in their semi-final, Geelong’s form and their dominance in head-to-head clashes suggest the Cats are in a stronger position to advance. The Lions’ poor record at the MCG also tilts the balance in Geelong’s favor.

Prediction: Geelong Cats by 23 points.