Update for the 2024 AFL Grand Final: Key Injuries and Team Changes

As we approach the 2024 AFL Grand Final between the Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions, a few significant updates could influence the game’s outcome. The most notable news is that Sydney captain Callum Mills has been officially ruled out due to a hamstring injury. Despite showing progress in training, the Swans’ medical staff decided to hold him back, which could impact Sydney’s midfield depth and leadership. On a positive note for the Swans, Logan McDonald has recovered from his ankle injury and will start at centre-half forward.

On Brisbane’s side, Darcy Fort will step in as the primary ruckman to replace Oscar McInerney, who dislocated his shoulder in the preliminary final. Although Fort has shown strong form in the VFL, his lack of recent AFL experience might be a disadvantage against Sydney’s Brodie Grundy​. However, Brisbane’s dynamic midfield and dangerous forward line, led by Lachie Neale and Joe Daniher, remain formidable. The Lions’ ability to switch between controlled ball movement and fast-paced play could still pose challenges for Sydney’s defense​.

These updates tighten the margins for the grand final. While Sydney’s defense and midfield, even without Mills, are still strong, Brisbane’s adaptability makes this a closer contest than initially predicted.

The 2024 AFL Grand Final is set to be a thrilling contest between the Sydney Swans and the Brisbane Lions at the MCG on Saturday, September 28. Both teams have demonstrated remarkable form over the past three weeks, overcoming significant hurdles to reach the grand final stage. Here’s a detailed breakdown of each team’s performance leading up to the big game and a prediction for the outcome.

A revised prediction of Sydney by around 10-12 points.

Sydney Swans’ Recent Form

Sydney Swans have been a dominant force throughout the finals, displaying resilience and consistency. Their 36-point victory over Port Adelaide in the preliminary final was a commanding performance, even with key players like Callum Mills (hamstring) and Logan McDonald (ankle) sidelined. Despite these injuries, Sydney’s midfield, spearheaded by Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney, dominated key areas of the game.

One of the Swans’ most significant strengths has been their defensive solidity. Dane Rampe and Tom McCartin have been exceptional in nullifying opposition attacks, while Tom Papley and Joel Amartey have provided a reliable target up forward. However, a key concern heading into the grand final is the form of ruckman Brodie Grundy, who struggled in the first half against Port Adelaide. If Grundy can regain his top form, it will give Sydney a decisive edge at stoppages.

The return of Mills, who has been progressing well in training, could further bolster Sydney’s midfield. His leadership and clearance work are vital as the Swans look to break down Brisbane’s aggressive game plan​.

Brisbane Lions’ Recent Form

The Brisbane Lions have been on a remarkable journey, overcoming the Geelong Cats in a 10-point thriller during their preliminary final. However, the win came with a major blow—key ruckman Oscar McInerney dislocated his shoulder and has been ruled out for the grand final. This forces Brisbane to turn to backup ruckman Darcy Fort, who has been in excellent form in the VFL, but lacks the experience of McInerney at the top level.

Brisbane’s forward line, led by Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, and Charlie Cameron, has been electric. Daniher’s ability to crash packs and Hipwood’s sharp goal-kicking have been critical in securing Brisbane’s victories. In the midfield, Lachie Neale has been a standout, driving Brisbane’s clearance game alongside Josh Dunkley.

The Lions have shown a remarkable ability to adapt to adversity, and their aggressive ball movement is likely to test Sydney’s defense. However, McInerney’s absence will be felt, particularly in stoppages, where Brisbane could struggle against Sydney’s dominant midfield.

Key Matchups

  1. Brodie Grundy (Sydney) vs. Darcy Fort (Brisbane): With McInerney out, this matchup becomes pivotal. If Grundy can assert dominance over Fort, Sydney will likely control the clearance battle​.
  2. Lachie Neale (Brisbane) vs. Chad Warner (Sydney): Both midfielders are crucial to their respective teams’ ball movement. This will be a key matchup to watch as the two fight to control the tempo of the game.
  3. Sydney Defense vs. Brisbane Forwards: The Swans’ defensive unit will have their hands full with Daniher and Hipwood. The ability of Rampe and McCartin to neutralize these threats will be a major factor​.

Tactical Overview

Sydney’s defense-first strategy, complemented by precise ball movement through the midfield, will clash with Brisbane’s high-risk, high-reward attacking style. Sydney will look to limit Brisbane’s forward entries while capitalizing on turnovers, while Brisbane will aim to stretch Sydney’s defense with quick ball movement and precise kicks inside 50.

Prediction

While Brisbane has shown great resilience, the loss of McInerney in the ruck is a significant blow. Sydney’s defense has been rock solid, and with the return of Mills, their midfield looks too strong for Brisbane to consistently break through. Expect a close contest, but Sydney’s overall balance and depth across the ground give them the edge.

Prediction: Sydney Swans by 16 points.