Prediction Ladder Prediction 2022

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Powaa will finish last. They are a rabble.
Crows 13th-14th.

Nah, we're still a bottom 4 lock. If Port are a rabble and we just got over the line then that plants us with them. They'll do some soul searching now and then again at 0-5 and end up around the 10 win mark. I think we're still going to finish second last.

Noble led Roos a lock for bottom, get on now because Sportsbet will be paying out in a month. No idea why i thought he'd be a good choice to get them up to being reliably adequate. I forgot that he sees Aussie rules like it can be solved like moneyball with his patented stat-0-matic machine.
 

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The difference between top teams and bottom teams will soon become apparent, Port, North, Gold Coast, Fremantle, us, all down the bottom.

Who else I'm not sure, West Coast, Richmond, Essendon.

I'm surprised with Collingwood and Hawthorn, they may not be able to sustain but they are having a crack.

I think we should be aiming to be top of a bad bunch, win 8-10 games.

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You still think Port will go and get at least 12 wins. So they make finals.

I still think we are bottom 6, but hopefully showing signs

And win the 2nd showdown just to add salt to the wound

Got to find 12 wins from 18 games, which is bloody difficult if you're a team who are in the absolute pits. After all, you likely need to win all your home games and find 3-4 wins on the road to be able to do that, it's usually a bridge too far.

That said, bottom 6 seems a pretty safe bet for us at this point in time. We lack the experience and quality to do anything major, but as the Showdown indicated, we'll end up grinding out a few wins through effort/desire when we're on.
 
Got to find 12 wins from 18 games, which is bloody difficult if you're a team who are in the absolute pits. After all, you likely need to win all your home games and find 3-4 wins on the road to be able to do that, it's usually a bridge too far.

That said, bottom 6 seems a pretty safe bet for us at this point in time. We lack the experience and quality to do anything major, but as the Showdown indicated, we'll end up grinding out a few wins through effort/desire when we're on.
That's true, I think they'll be 1 and 5 after the west coast game.

They then have
Saints (A)
Bulldogs (H)
North (A)
Cats (A)
Essendon (H)

Then the bye

Outside the Cats they are all winnable so could well go on to the break 5-6

But you are probably closer to the mark than me, because whilst they are winnable, the Saints and Dogs games are very loseable too.

Round 23 could end up being a complete dead rubber (their home showdown).
 
I thought the Poorwer wouldn't make the top 8, but I didn't think they were spoon bad.

Finally home and away results are reflecting the capabilities of their side that is normally shown up in finals.
They have no depth whatsoever. They were blessed with no injuries 2019 and 2020 but last year and moreso this year the injuries have come. Their flag opportunity was 2020 and they blew it as we did in 2017. Our smashing of them in the SANFL showed they have no depth and once Gray, Boak and the other oldies retire they are headed for bottom 2 for 3 or 4 years. I think their decent young victorian players will leave them to make things worse once they are rock bottom.
 
You still think Port will go and get at least 12 wins. So they make finals.

I still think we are bottom 6, but hopefully showing signs

And win the 2nd showdown just to add salt to the wound

I think they'll be scrambling to make the 8, but I think they'll be no further away than a win or 2 come the end of the minor round. I can't see us getting anywhere near the top of the bottom 6. Pretty confident we'll be not many rungs higher than Kangaroos.
 
I think they'll be scrambling to make the 8, but I think they'll be no further away than a win or 2 come the end of the minor round. I can't see us getting anywhere near the top of the bottom 6. Pretty confident we'll be not many rungs higher than Kangaroos.
Yeah after looking at their upcoming games I I might have been a bit bullish
 

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It's not our role to keep the lid on finals talk, that's the clubs.

We need 11 wins to make the 8. If we win on the weekend, the talk will get louder. We need to win our home games and a few away games.

I can see us winning 9 games for the rest of the year, including gold coast away, north away and west coast away. We then need to manufacture 2 x wins against either Carlton, Brisbane, Geelong, Melb, Hawks, Sydney and Port.

GWS (H) - W
Carl (A) - L
Lions (H) - L
St Kilda (H) - W
Geelong (A) - L
WCE (H) - W
GCS (A) - W
North (A) - W
Melb (H) - L
Hawks (A) - L
Coll (H) - W
Sydney (A) - L
Carl (H) - W
WCE (A) -W
North (H) - W
Port (A) - L

We can finish the season strongly with a softer draw last 4/5 games, possibly sneak the Port game which they will be playing to make the finals too.

Looks like we will finish 9-10th, with 11-12 wins for the year.
 
logo.b17de821.png



W
L
D
%

1
Melbourne.png

Melbourne
19
3
0
136.3

2
Brisbane.png

Brisbane Lions
18
4
0
139.7

3
Geelong.png

Geelong
16
6
0
127.3

4
Fremantle.png

Fremantle
16
6
0
122.7

5
Sydney.png

Sydney
15
7
0
123.6

6
Carlton.png

Carlton
15
7
0
109.1

7
Richmond.png

Richmond
14
8
0
115.1

8

Adelaide
12
10
0
103.5

9

St Kilda
11
11
0
99.2

10

Port Adelaide
10
12
0
99.9

11

Western Bulldogs
9
13
0
99.5

12

Collingwood
9
13
0
93.3

13

Gold Coast
9
13
0
90.4

14

Hawthorn
7
15
0
89.2

15

GWS
7
15
0
86.4

16

Essendon
5
17
0
79.5

17

West Coast
5
17
0
67.2

18
North Melbourne
 
logo.b17de821.png



W
L
D
%

1
Melbourne.png

Melbourne
19
3
0
136.3

2
Brisbane.png

Brisbane Lions
18
4
0
139.7

3
Geelong.png

Geelong
16
6
0
127.3

4
Fremantle.png

Fremantle
16
6
0
122.7

5
Sydney.png

Sydney
15
7
0
123.6

6
Carlton.png

Carlton
15
7
0
109.1

7
Richmond.png

Richmond
14
8
0
115.1

8

Adelaide
12
10
0
103.5

9

St Kilda
11
11
0
99.2

10

Port Adelaide
10
12
0
99.9

11

Western Bulldogs
9
13
0
99.5

12

Collingwood
9
13
0
93.3

13

Gold Coast
9
13
0
90.4

14

Hawthorn
7
15
0
89.2

15

GWS
7
15
0
86.4

16

Essendon
5
17
0
79.5

17

West Coast
5
17
0
67.2

18
North Melbourne
Is this your prediction, or is this what Squiggle is indicating?
 
Melbourne
Brisbane
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Geelong
Essendon

GWS
Fremantle
Richmond
Adelaide
Carlton
Gold Coast
North Melbourne
West Coast
Collingwood
Hawthorn

Top 7 should be close - Saints/Port only question

Next 4 are contenders for 8th

Bottom 7 have 5040 different finish positions available and it will come down to the last 3 games to determine what the final order is

I think Adelaide could win anywhere from 5 to 10 games - hopefully there is upward improvement

Port are a team I cant accurately predict. I think they could be on the edge of a cliff. If Butters, Rozee , Duursma and other draftees can take over the team then a top 5 finish is in reach. If the kids struggle then they could plummet outside the 8
6 from top 8

Crows between 5/10 which really isnt saying much

Ports cliff came quicker than expected but not unexpectedly

Collingwood is the real bad one - didnt expect that much bounce and the margin of wins may have changed some positions
 
Time for me to redeem myself after a last place finish a few years ago.

Bulldogs
Brisbane
Melbourne
St. Kilda
Port Adelaide
Essendon
Fremantle
Collingwood

Giants
Sydney
Richmond
Geelong
Carlton
North Melbourne
Hawthorn
Adelaide
West Coast
Gold Coast

3 teams into the 8 Saints, Freo, Collingwood. 3 out - Sydney, Giants, Geelong.

5 out of 6 with the obvious misses being Geelong/Sydney who finished top 4. Geelong eventually have to fall down and I will pick em to slide again next year damnit.
 
Final prediction:

1. Brisbane - No obvious weaknesses and in the right age profile. I think this is the year they'll finally put it together.
2. Melbourne - Will be right up there again. Like Brisbane, no weaknesses and their list is in the ideal age bracket.
3. Western Bulldogs - History suggests that teams who get smashed in grand finals drop off the following year. The Bulldogs will buck that trend, there's too much talent in the side, especially in the midfield. Their defence is still a bit suspect but I'll predict they'll be around the mark again.
4. GWS - They have the talent, a better coach would have them contenders.
5. Geelong - Home ground advantage and handy senior contributions will still see them play finals but this list has missed their chance of a flag. This year will be when they start to drop off.
6. Richmond - Still enough quality in the side to return to the finals but their days as a powerhouse are over. For now.
7. Port Adelaide - Like Geelong, they've gone as far as they will go. They'll scrape into the finals but I'm expecting a decline.
8. Carlton - Starting to remind me of them in 2009-11 where they had a star-studded top 5 but lacked depth to ever take the next step. McKay, Weitering, Walsh, Cerra and a fit Cripps is a strong spine to build around to sneak them into the 8.

9. Sydney - I feel it'll be a case of taking one step back before taking two steps forward. Top 4 in 2023 but will be inconsistent while their young core takes another year. Progression isn't always linear.
10. Essendon - Pretty much the same as the Swans.
11. St Kilda - The more I look at them, the less I'm impressed. Too many C graders going around.
12. Fremantle - I just don't rate them. There's still significant holes in their team, especially up forward, and they need to find a way to become less reliant on a 37 year old Mundy.
13. North Melbourne - They've drafted well and are heading in the right direction. 13th is very optimistic but the 13th-18th bracket is tough to pick. Anyone could finish anywhere.
14. West Coast - Ageing list with a number of injury concerns already. They'll win enough games at home to avoid bombing entirely but the cliff has arrived.
15. Hawthorn - They have a good attack from wing and HB with the likes of Jiath, Day and Scrimshaw and played well overall in the back-end of last season with wins over quality opponents. The big question mark is S. Mitchell.
16. Adelaide - Most inexperienced side in the comp and some concerns over our midfield. I don't think we'll finish last but I'm predicting a bit of stagnation this season. Happy to be proven wrong.
17. Collingwood - They have a sturdy enough defence to avoid smashings most weeks, but an impotent forward line, weak midfield and an overall inexperienced squad means they'll struggle to kick winning scores.
18. Gold Coast - I don't read anything into pre-season. They'll struggle big time with Clarkson primed to take over in 2023.
5/8 for the top 8. GWS was the real bad pick there. I thought Port would slide a bit, but not out of the 8 completely and I was on point with Carlton until 2 minutes left in the match.

Way off the mark with Freo and, especially, Collingwood, I overestimated North big time and underestimated the Suns. I thought Essendon and West Coast would both slide, but not to the extent they did.
 

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Prediction Ladder Prediction 2022


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