Prediction How many games will the AFC win in 2025?

[Kickin Goals]

I know better than to say this, but **** it, with our soft draw and start to the season. With progression of the youngsters and the new recruits we surely can’t win anything less than 12 and should win between 14-16.

 

[adelaidecrows]

I know better than to say this, but **** it, with our soft draw and start to the season. With progression of the youngsters and the new recruits we surely can’t win anything less than 12 and should win between 14-16.

If we are virtually injury free and can maintain it where we have competition for spots anything can happen. Obviously there are more variables than just that but we can be positive.

 

[whitey_1975]

Hard to say, too many variables, like will Nix play his favourites in our midfield? Will Murphy still be selected ? Will our game plan be more defensive like start of last year?
If Nix hasn't learnt shit, which is entirely possible, we could be 0 and 4 again and hopefully sacking him, not a lot of inspired coaching behind him to turn it around.
If Nix instructs instinctive footy, attacking footy and the young blokes get first crack we might win 14-15 games.
Crows fan since inception of club, I certainly ain't holding my breath.

 

[glengowan]

However many it takes to play finals. Plus 4!

 

[Kickin Goals]

If we are virtually injury free and can maintain it where we have competition for spots anything can happen. Obviously there are more variables than just that but we can be positive.

It’s ridiculous because you feel you have to be negative just so you’re not disappointed but in reality we should be positive going into this season for the first time in a long while.

 

[GROTTO]

Much like last year I think we'll know early if we are going to be any good or not.

Last year I flagged Round 1 vs GC as the litmus test that would tell us instantly how our season was.

Next season I think both Round 2 vs Essendon and Round 4 vs Gold Coast will tell us where we're at.

Honestly our first 6 games are all winnable if we're good enough so I tend to think that if we go into the Freo game with anything less than 4-2 record, then we'll most probably be missing the finals.

I put us down for 12 wins, despite having an easier draw this year I suspect that we'll lose some 50/50 games that we should have won and will miss the 8.

Good post.

The only issue I have is that I do think the first 6 games are all winnable and for a team aspiring to make the 8, we should be 6-0 or 5-1 at worst. Most likely 4-2.

Its the 4 games that follow this, that will IMO give a real litmus test if we are playing Finals in 2025, Freo away, Blues at AO, away Showdown, followed by the Pies at the G. If we are 4-0 or 3-1 from this bracket of games, we are playing finals.

We really need to bank away wins early in the season, our last 7 is going to be hard to win. Dogs at Mars, Port,Hawks at AO, followed by the Pies at the G. Dont rule out North pushing us hard in their "Grand Final in R24" at Marvel. I have us at 4/7 in those games.

 

[GROTTO]

12 games. We lose to North Melbourne in the final round which costs us finals. Nicks sacked

Then we win 19 home and away games in 2026 with a new coach

Sliding Doors phenomenon?

We miss Finals in 2024, get a decent high 1st rounder and use that with our Future 1st to get Dyson Sharp who also slides from Pick 1, making the trade a lot more feasible?

Simpson or Longmire to coach Crows in 2026?

 

[BRL121]

Good post.

The only issue I have is that I do think the first 6 games are all winnable and for a team aspiring to make the 8, we should be 6-0 or 5-1 at worst. Most likely 4-2.

Its the 4 games that follow this, that will IMO give a real litmus test if we are playing Finals in 2025, Freo away, Blues at AO, away Showdown, followed by the Pies at the G. If we are 4-0 or 3-1 from this bracket of games, we are playing finals.

We really need to bank away wins early in the season, our last 7 is going to be hard to win. Dogs at Mars, Port,Hawks at AO, followed by the Pies at the G. Dont rule out North pushing us hard in their "Grand Final in R24" at Marvel. I have us at 4/7 in those games.

Pies at the G twice?

 

[GreyCrow]

Good post.

The only issue I have is that I do think the first 6 games are all winnable and for a team aspiring to make the 8, we should be 6-0 or 5-1 at worst. Most likely 4-2.

Its the 4 games that follow this, that will IMO give a real litmus test if we are playing Finals in 2025, Freo away, Blues at AO, away Showdown, followed by the Pies at the G. If we are 4-0 or 3-1 from this bracket of games, we are playing finals.

We really need to bank away wins early in the season, our last 7 is going to be hard to win. Dogs at Mars, Port,Hawks at AO, followed by the Pies at the G. Dont rule out North pushing us hard in their "Grand Final in R24" at Marvel. I have us at 4/7 in those games.

Based on nothing but a Curnow-less Blues I can see them sliding

 

[rocket18]

Tough to know at this stage.

If Nicks has final say of team selection and game plan 8-10 wins.

If Davis has final say of team selection and game plan 13 -15 wins.

 

[George Kramer]

Given its preseason, I thought as an exercise I would go ahead and try and predict which games in the H&A season we may win.

Interestingly I arrived at 13W for 2025 which included 4 losses at AO, the line given by the bookies is 12.5W. While 13W was enough to make the 8 in 2024, it should be noted that the Pies ended up with same premiership counts as 8th place, ie 12W and 2D but missed out on percentage.

Under Nicks in 2024 we lost 7 "home" games, 4 in 2023, 7 in 2022 and 2021 and 8 in 2020.

AFC 2025 Fixture

Round	Date	Location	Home Team	Away Team	Result
1	16/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	St Kilda	W
2	22/03/25​	MCG	Essendon	Adelaide Crows	W
3	30/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	North Melbourne	W
4	5/04/25​	People First Stadium	Gold Coast SUNS	Adelaide Crows	L
5	10/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats	L
6	19/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	GWS GIANTS	W
7	25/04/25​	Optus Stadium	Fremantle	Adelaide Crows	L
8	3/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Carlton	W
9	10/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Crows	W
10	17/05/25​	MCG	Collingwood	Adelaide Crows	L
11	25/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	West Coast Eagles	W
12	31/05/25​	SCG	Sydney Swans	Adelaide Crows	L
13	6/06/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Brisbane Lions	L
14	13/06/25​	UTAS Stadium	Hawthorn	Adelaide Crows	L
16	28/06/25​	MCG	Richmond	Adelaide Crows	W
17	4/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Melbourne	W
18	11/07/25​	Mars Stadium	Western Bulldogs	Adelaide Crows	L
19	18/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Gold Coast SUNS	W
20	25/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Port Adelaide	W
21	1/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Hawthorn	L
22	8/08/25​	Optus Stadium	West Coast Eagles	Adelaide Crows	W
23	15/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Collingwood	L
24	22/08/25​	Marvel Stadium	North Melbourne	Adelaide Crows	W
				TOTAL SEASON WINS	13

Can you change it to show who voted for what?

 

[Rotayjay]

I can see this going one of two ways:

1. A really good breakout season for several young players, plus our recruits making an impact, plus Davis makes Nicks half-decent, or the sheer talent makes Nicks look good. 14 wins, top six finish, finals here we come.

2. Nicks' pathetic coaching costs us many winnable games, he gets sacked at around the June mark (maybe after Hawthorn pump us in Tasmania), Davis takes over, but because the season is shot, morale is low and we end up winning one more game than last year - 9.

I voted for the latter because my expectations are suppressed by this club.

 

[Rotayjay]

The 'Matthewgeddon' scenario:

Round	Date	Location	Home Team	Away Team	Result
1	16/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	St Kilda	W
2	22/03/25​	MCG	Essendon	Adelaide Crows	L
3	30/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	North Melbourne	W
4	5/04/25​	People First Stadium	Gold Coast SUNS	Adelaide Crows	L
5	10/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats	L
6	19/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	GWS GIANTS	L
7	25/04/25​	Optus Stadium	Fremantle	Adelaide Crows	L
8	3/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Carlton	L
9	10/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Crows	L
10	17/05/25​	MCG	Collingwood	Adelaide Crows	L (by under a goal)
11	25/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	West Coast Eagles	W
12	31/05/25​	SCG	Sydney Swans	Adelaide Crows	L
13	6/06/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Brisbane Lions	L
14	13/06/25​	UTAS Stadium	Hawthorn	Adelaide Crows	L (Nicks sacked)
16	28/06/25​	MCG	Richmond	Adelaide Crows	W
17	4/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Melbourne	W
18	11/07/25​	Mars Stadium	Western Bulldogs	Adelaide Crows	L
19	18/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Gold Coast SUNS	W
20	25/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Port Adelaide	W
21	1/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Hawthorn	W
22	8/08/25​	Optus Stadium	West Coast Eagles	Adelaide Crows	L
23	15/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Collingwood	L (Tex farewell game)
24	22/08/25​	Marvel Stadium	North Melbourne	Adelaide Crows	W
				TOTAL SEASON WINS	9

 

[Dangarman]

Surely we win a Collingwood game next year

By my count, only Swans and Collingwood are yet to be beaten by Matthew Nicks as coach.

(He did win 7 games against Collingwood as a player, however...)

 

[Dangarman]

The 'Matthewgeddon' scenario:

Round	Date	Location	Home Team	Away Team	Result
1	16/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	St Kilda	W
2	22/03/25​	MCG	Essendon	Adelaide Crows	L
3	30/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	North Melbourne	W
4	5/04/25​	People First Stadium	Gold Coast SUNS	Adelaide Crows	L
5	10/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats	L
6	19/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	GWS GIANTS	L
7	25/04/25​	Optus Stadium	Fremantle	Adelaide Crows	L
8	3/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Carlton	L
9	10/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Crows	L
10	17/05/25​	MCG	Collingwood	Adelaide Crows	L (by under a goal)
11	25/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	West Coast Eagles	W
12	31/05/25​	SCG	Sydney Swans	Adelaide Crows	L
13	6/06/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Brisbane Lions	L
14	13/06/25​	UTAS Stadium	Hawthorn	Adelaide Crows	L (Nicks sacked)
16	28/06/25​	MCG	Richmond	Adelaide Crows	W
17	4/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Melbourne	W
18	11/07/25​	Mars Stadium	Western Bulldogs	Adelaide Crows	L
19	18/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Gold Coast SUNS	W
20	25/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Port Adelaide	W
21	1/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Hawthorn	W
22	8/08/25​	Optus Stadium	West Coast Eagles	Adelaide Crows	L
23	15/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Collingwood	L (Tex farewell game)
24	22/08/25​	Marvel Stadium	North Melbourne	Adelaide Crows	W
				TOTAL SEASON WINS	9

You really think he would survive past a 2-8 start?

 

[Rotayjay]

You really think he would survive past a 2-8 start?

At a ruthless club, no. At the AFC, yes.

 

[TRP1996]

Between 1 and 23.

 

[GROTTO]

Can you change it to show who voted for what?

If you click on the view results, you can see how many posters think we will win say 12 games.



I deliberately provided the excel template so posters could use this to cut and paste into their response on here.

Still plenty of time for posters to do this.

So far its looking like most on here think we will win about 12-13 games in 2025, its going to be very tight for us to make the 8 given last years Top 8 standings.

 

[GROTTO]

The 'Matthewgeddon' scenario:

Round	Date	Location	Home Team	Away Team	Result
1	16/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	St Kilda	W
2	22/03/25​	MCG	Essendon	Adelaide Crows	L
3	30/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	North Melbourne	W
4	5/04/25​	People First Stadium	Gold Coast SUNS	Adelaide Crows	L
5	10/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats	L
6	19/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	GWS GIANTS	L
7	25/04/25​	Optus Stadium	Fremantle	Adelaide Crows	L
8	3/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Carlton	L
9	10/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Crows	L
10	17/05/25​	MCG	Collingwood	Adelaide Crows	L (by under a goal)
11	25/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	West Coast Eagles	W
12	31/05/25​	SCG	Sydney Swans	Adelaide Crows	L
13	6/06/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Brisbane Lions	L
14	13/06/25​	UTAS Stadium	Hawthorn	Adelaide Crows	L (Nicks sacked)
16	28/06/25​	MCG	Richmond	Adelaide Crows	W
17	4/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Melbourne	W
18	11/07/25​	Mars Stadium	Western Bulldogs	Adelaide Crows	L
19	18/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Gold Coast SUNS	W
20	25/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Port Adelaide	W
21	1/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Hawthorn	W
22	8/08/25​	Optus Stadium	West Coast Eagles	Adelaide Crows	L
23	15/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Collingwood	L (Tex farewell game)
24	22/08/25​	Marvel Stadium	North Melbourne	Adelaide Crows	W
				TOTAL SEASON WINS	9

Your selections are not unrealistic, Nicks definitely has the capacity to win just 9 games from a soft draw.

We were 1-5 after R6 and if Carlton didnt choke, that easily would have been 0-6 start for us.

 

[PCORF]

I copied the spreadsheet.

This is how I think the season will go. 11 wins with the majority of wins and losses expected.

We'll win a few more games due to our softer draw that does not mean we'll be the best side.

Round	Date	Location	Home Team	Away Team	Result
1	16/03/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	St Kilda	L
2	22/03/25	MCG	Essendon	Adelaide Crows	W
3	30/03/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	North Melbourne	W
4	5/04/25	People First Stadium	Gold Coast SUNS	Adelaide Crows	L
5	10/04/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats	L
6	19/04/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	GWS GIANTS	W
7	25/04/25	Optus Stadium	Fremantle	Adelaide Crows	L
8	3/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Carlton	W
9	10/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Crows	L
10	17/05/25	MCG	Collingwood	Adelaide Crows	L
11	25/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	West Coast Eagles	W
12	31/05/25	SCG	Sydney Swans	Adelaide Crows	L
13	6/06/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Brisbane Lions	W
14	13/06/25	UTAS Stadium	Hawthorn	Adelaide Crows	L
16	28/06/25	MCG	Richmond	Adelaide Crows	W
17	4/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Melbourne	L
18	11/07/25	Mars Stadium	Western Bulldogs	Adelaide Crows	L
19	18/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Gold Coast SUNS	W
20	25/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Port Adelaide	W
21	1/08/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Hawthorn	L
22	8/08/25	Optus Stadium	West Coast Eagles	Adelaide Crows	W
23	15/08/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Collingwood	L
24	22/08/25	Marvel Stadium	North Melbourne	Adelaide Crows	W
				TOTAL SEASON WINS	11

 

[PCORF]

Your selections are not unrealistic, Nicks definitely has the capacity to win just 9 games from a soft draw.

We were 1-5 after R6 and if Carlton didnt choke, that easily would have been 0-6 start for us.

The 2 wins by 2 points last season were games we should have lost with the team still finishing 15th with 6 wins.

 

[Eagleboy2011]

The 'Matthewgeddon' scenario:

Round	Date	Location	Home Team	Away Team	Result
1	16/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	St Kilda	W
2	22/03/25​	MCG	Essendon	Adelaide Crows	L
3	30/03/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	North Melbourne	W
4	5/04/25​	People First Stadium	Gold Coast SUNS	Adelaide Crows	L
5	10/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats	L
6	19/04/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	GWS GIANTS	L
7	25/04/25​	Optus Stadium	Fremantle	Adelaide Crows	L
8	3/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Carlton	L
9	10/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Crows	L
10	17/05/25​	MCG	Collingwood	Adelaide Crows	L (by under a goal)
11	25/05/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	West Coast Eagles	W
12	31/05/25​	SCG	Sydney Swans	Adelaide Crows	L
13	6/06/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Brisbane Lions	L
14	13/06/25​	UTAS Stadium	Hawthorn	Adelaide Crows	L (Nicks sacked)
16	28/06/25​	MCG	Richmond	Adelaide Crows	W
17	4/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Melbourne	W
18	11/07/25​	Mars Stadium	Western Bulldogs	Adelaide Crows	L
19	18/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Gold Coast SUNS	W
20	25/07/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Port Adelaide	W
21	1/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Hawthorn	W
22	8/08/25​	Optus Stadium	West Coast Eagles	Adelaide Crows	L
23	15/08/25​	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Collingwood	L (Tex farewell game)
24	22/08/25​	Marvel Stadium	North Melbourne	Adelaide Crows	W
				TOTAL SEASON WINS	9

If we are not least 2 and 1 preferably 3:0 after the first 3 matches Nicks needs to be sacked.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

So basically half of us think we will make finals & half think we will miss...

 

[Rotayjay]

If we are not least 2 and 1 preferably 3:0 after the first 3 matches Nicks needs to be sacked.

There's 'should be sacked' and there's 'will be sacked'

 

[cleanhands]

So basically half of us think we will make finals & half think we will miss...

Half are not very smart