Preview Finals Week 1: Collingwood v Melbourne, Thursday 7 September, MCG, 7.20pm

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More than happy to explain why.

This guy has had more than enough opportunities to grab a game by the balls and have a decent impact on a result.

Had a major opportunity against Essendon to really show what he is capable of and didn’t.

6 goals from 7 games in finals.

As for people saying oh you want Howe to play forward. No.

Our game is built on pressure and Mcstay doesn’t provide that enough for me.

Ginnivan, hill, mcreery bring that and pace as well.

Cameron and cox can rest forward to provide another target.

And again no Howe shouldn’t play forward


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You obviously didn't watch his performance during 2022 finals series. There's an argument he even won them a final against Melbourne kicking 2 goals with 5 disposals in the last quarter when scores were level. ANd the 1st final against the Tigers he was forced into the ruck and had 23 disposals, kicked a goal and half a dozen marks.
He may have had a quiet game last week, however, his contested marking in prior weeks is what we need; not to mention he kicked 2 goals a game the prior 6 weeks.
So, overall, a little perplexing.
 
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The analysis on the Melbourne board reads like this;

“We have Petracca, Oliver, May, Gawn and Fritsch who are all match-winners. They have De Goey, Moore and Elliott, so we’ll win. Oh and maybe Kozi Pickett for us, because he’s got nearly as many goals as Elliott.”

It’s like they don’t watch football and just read about it the day after in the HUN.
Guaranteed Moore will take a dozen marks with Oliver closing his eyes and banging the ball forward....
 

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I still feel like that backline is our best option going forward. The freedom Frampton provides Moore to attack the footy in the air and cut off opposition attacks can't be understated. I feel that Darcy has always played his best when he has another true KPD riding shotgun to him (no disrespect to Murphy or Howe), and Frampton back on the main KPF allows Darcy to plays his natural game.

That being said, I can see a position for Howe in the side. His ability to impact at both ends of the ground could be pivotal in a finals series, and his athleticism, leadership and kicking ability around the ground would also be a handy asset in a big game if we ever decided to go that way.

Alternatively, if those that feel like one of DC/Cox needs to be dropped, having Howe in the side opens the option of moving Frampton into the relief ruck role and Howe goes in defense for that period, allowing us to keep our forward structure with McStay/Mihocek etc.
 

Presumably the moonboot is to play it safe with his bruised foot but far from ideal you would think.
 
Gerard Healy said Melbourne have been good all year without issues and Collingwood shaky at the end of the year. Old age kicking it.
That must be why Melbourne finished the season on top of the ladder, with the best percentage, after having had the toughest schedule
 
I mean overestimated by the media and thus footy fans.

They remind me of a lot of Bucks teams - better players, but they have to control a large majority of the match to win. During some stage, one of the good teams will have a period where they get on top and score enough to beat them. I think we'll do it to them.
Maybe I have an overinflated view of the average footy fan, but in general I think they’re more critical thinkers than sheep.

It’s a great comparison. It makes them (like Carlton) easy to plan for just hard to break down. Setting aside the need to probably beat Brisbane in Brisbane losing to them would be it for us because like you I think they’re down the pecking order in terms of quality in 2023. Somewhere between 4th and 6th alongside Carlton and GWS is where I have them.
 

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You mean where they lined up? I can give an estimate only...

B: Noble, Moore, Maynard
HB: N Daicos, Murphy, Quaynor
C: J Daicos, Mitchell, WHE
HF: Lipinski, Mihocek, Hill
F: McIness, AJ, McCreery
Foll: Cameron, Pendlebury, Adams

Int: Cox, Harrison, Frampton, Crisp.
Sub: Markov

Josh Daicos was invisible and clearly unwell. Harrison was quite good when he had it, but didn’t get a lot. Reef provided forward pressure but that’s about it, not threatening in any way. AJ (and I’m a fan) was a witches’ hat.

We should probably have started Markov rather than give him 30% TOG as sub. Our running out of defence was lacking for much of the game with no De Goey or Sidebottom, and only Mihocek (and a very sore WHE) as a target down the line.
I’m not normally one to buy into this stuff because I’m all system, but what I find curious about the personnel changes is the impacts they have on said system in this case.

JDG gives us bite around stoppage, McStay lightens the load on Mihocek, Elliott gives us that triple threat I50 (ground, air and on the lead). The guys that played with illness and injury Q’s hanging over them I’m less keen to buy in on because I just don’t know how well they got to the line. Take McReery he needed Murphy level recovery following the WC match after his ankle injury to get up for KB, but his numbers look the same as the rest of his season and he might have gone into it feeling as good as he has all season.

Oliver is an amazing in for them on paper, but his impact is taking stoppage and contest where it’s going to be won and lost from a 9.5 to a 9.8. It’s probably just me, but I’ve also felt that Hibberd has stood up against us in the past as well. I’m not sure if he’s out of the picture because of form or fitness, but I feel glad he doesn’t seem to be in the mix.
 
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I’m not normally one to buy into this stuff because I’m all system, but what I find curious about the personnel changes is the impacts they have on said system in this case.

JDG gives us bite around stoppage, McStay lightens the load on Mihocek, Elliott gives us that triple threat I50 (ground, air and on the lead). The guys that played illness and injury Q’s hanging over them I’m less keen to buy in on because I just don’t know how well they got to the line. Take McReery he needed Murphy level recovery following the WC match after his ankle injury to get up for KB, but his numbers look the same as the rest of his season and he might have gone into it feeling as good as he has all season.

Oliver is an amazing in for them on paper, but his impact is taking stoppage and contest where it’s going to be won and lost from a 9.5 to a 9.8. It’s probably just me, but I’ve also felt that Hibberd has stood up against us in the past as well. I’m not sure if he’s out of the picture because of form or fitness, but I feel glad he doesn’t seem to be in the mix.

Another point for the last paragraph, we typically expose Melbourne for wingers with Steele who has matched Langdon on endurance but schooled him for smarts. KB not only was there no Steele, they had Hunter for the first time. Hopefully what was once a match up issue for them against us doesn't become a strength.
 
Another point for the last paragraph, we typically expose Melbourne for wingers with Steele who has matched Langdon on endurance but schooled him for smarts. KB not only was there no Steele, they had Hunter for the first time. Hopefully what was once a match up issue for them against us doesn't become a strength.
Can’t believe I overlooked him in those structural improvements comments! You’re spot on though that extra run off the wing to provide width if they take the corridor from us will be crucial.

He’s had a soft return to footy since the knee, but of all the guys in our best 23 he’d be the first I’d name with one eye on finals. He’s on cruise control most of the time, but he’s looked like his cruise is on cruise the past 6 weeks. Expect him to lift!
 
No doubt we are better placed for the upcoming game, however we still fielded 23 players and were soundly beaten even if they weren’t able to translate the dominance to the scoreboard.

They are proven finals performers.

I think they are the biggest challenge for us. We win in a close contest
That's their big issue. They dominated the game for 3 quarters and because they're conservative and have ordinary forwards - that dominance was nearly all undone on the scoreboard in a 5 minute patch. They'll have to control so much of the match to win. I like our chances of having enough bursts to topple them.
 
If Lippa and Frampton are indeed the boys who go out this week, then we get to replace five players who didn't offer a heck of a lot on the King's BD:

Lipinski
Reef
Harrison
Johnson
Frampton

for

Elliott
JDG
Sidebottom
McStay
Howe

Those are some pretty handy upgrades all over the park.

No Naicos hurts a lot, but both Daicos boys were well down last time we played.
 
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