Autopsy Welcome to Freo Liam Henry – Fremantle’s 3rd 2019 National Draft Pick [Match bid Pick #9]

[Ge3ks]

^I like it.

 

[Superkoops]

How about something like:

Freo: Pick 29, F2(Haw)
Haw: Henry, Picks 52 and 58, F3 (Freo)

I think pick 29 will be the main piece of the trade and there’s little we do about it.

It’ll be like the Jordan Clark trade. Pick 29 isn’t quite enough and Hawthorn will just need to top it up a bit. Getting a F2 next year despite giving up a F3 would be a good result.

Also I’m starting to think we’re only taking three picks so Pick 52 and 58 are effectively nothing if we get pick 29. Just a slightly generous gift to Hawthorn to keep get the trade done.

Around the mark I reckon.

 

[ubiquitous226]

I don't think they give up 29 AND F2, but I'd be happy with that trade

 

[Docker82]

I don't think they give up 29 AND F2, but I'd be happy with that trade

Originally I just had a F3 coming to us along with 29. Henry and the picks in the 50s to Hawthorn

Might be more realistic - could be West Coast’s F3 which I reckon they get for Brockman.

 

[Madas]

Could end up a nightmare for Henry if Belly sticks to his guns for a reasonable pick (which he should!) and no-one stumps up enough.
West Coast picking him up in the PSD would be Henry’s worst case scenario - he doesn’t get to leave the State, he’d have massively put offside all the Dockers supporters and he’d be stuck in a sh#t team for years!
Could actually be Belly’s opportunity to stick one up Colin Young (with Henry being caught in the crossfire).
Would send out a clear message to other potential Young clients not to sign with him.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Dockeroo]

How about something like:

Freo: Pick 29, F2(Haw)
Haw: Henry, Picks 52 and 58, F3 (Freo)

I think pick 29 will be the main piece of the trade and there’s little we do about it.

It’ll be like the Jordan Clark trade. Pick 29 isn’t quite enough and Hawthorn will just need to top it up a bit. Getting a F2 next year despite giving up a F3 would be a good result.

Also I’m starting to think we’re only taking three picks so Pick 52 and 58 are effectively nothing if we get pick 29. Just a slightly generous gift to Hawthorn to keep get the trade done.

So two second round picks for Henry in effect?
I think you are dreaming.

I’m telling you guys now, pick 29 is the best we can do.
I listed about 7 or 8 examples of this scenario in recent years on this tread yesterday and they all finished the same. Freo getting less than what this board wanted or speculated.

We have apparently said we want a “pick between 15 and 25”
That means we want pick 25, and we will get pick 29.
Hawks F2 could be pick 22 - no way we are getting both!

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

So two second round picks for Henry in effect?
I think you are dreaming.

I’m telling you guys now, pick 29 is the best we can do.
I listed about 7 or 8 examples of this scenario in recent years on this tread yesterday and they all finished the same. Freo getting less than what this board wanted or speculated.

We have apparently said we want a “pick between 15 and 25”
That means we want pick 25, and we will get pick 29.
Hawks F2 could be pick 22 - no way we are getting both!

Hawks are almost certainly trading out 29 for points if they can so not quite the same thing. We can get Henry for a future 2nd and be the team they trade 29 for points at the same time

 

[Superkoops]

Hawks are almost certainly trading out 29 for points if they can so not quite the same thing. We can get Henry for a future 2nd and be the team they trade 29 for points at the same time

I think F2 and 29 is prob pushing it. I liked the thought around Eagles F3 (38-40) along with 29. I then agree that they can have 52 and 58/60/65 for points.

We run with 21,29,40 - have a late spare up our sleeves in case but likely pass.

1. Freo Trade with GC: 58 > Sharp, 65 - pts value 66-67
2. WC Trade with Hawks: F3 > Brockman - pts value around 38-41
3. Henry, 52, 65 > 29, F3 (WC) - pts value around 25-26

Leaves us in a good position (with two Future 3rds) to try and move up the board if we like someone just ahead of our picks starting 29 and 40. Including Collard for example.

 

[Minz]

My feeling is that Henry needs to be in an area with a larger social pool; Perth's social scene is just too small if you're an AFL footballer. So fair play to him; would rather see him stay, and I hope he doesn't end up a star in the future (massive Freo fan regrets for player we developed if so)

 

[freo_leo29]

I think it's in Freo's interest to get this one done with a few days to spare to see if they can do some work with another club to change our overall draft position.

Just provides time to be flexible and get picks in the right area for who we're likely to target.

We have months to trade picks

 

[Paracleet]

Just for context Henry and both our picks in the 50s values Henry as a 4th rounder. There is no way we're doing that.
If you include their F2 then pegged as a mid table finish it values him as pick 20. (If they finish last 14).
Given the picks in the 50s will come in massively and 29 might creep out a spot or 3 its probably about right just on pure points, but then that's not how it works in the real world:
Toss in an F3 from us then, again valued as mid table, it's 33. "Unders" on points, but probably fair give we get two second rounders.

 

[Taylor]

Perhaps there is an opportunity for Freo to hide Hawthorn picks for them until after a bid.

 

[Lach72]

Anything above 30 will be handy…picks in the twenties could be about where collard/Sanchez will sit

 

[Righteo]

My feeling is that Henry needs to be in an area with a larger social pool; Perth's social scene is just too small if you're an AFL footballer. So fair play to him; would rather see him stay, and I hope he doesn't end up a star in the future (massive Freo fan regrets for player we developed if so)

Perth has 2.2 million people. Just how social is he?

 

[Bigger]

He gets around on Insta. One of my son's mates isn't super happy with Liam's work in the girlfriend department.

 

[Paracleet]

Perth has 2.2 million people. Just how social is he?

The City of Melbourne has like 160,000 people. The same area of central Perth would be lucky to have 30,000. I know vibrancy is a bit of a dirty word but whatever you want to call it, its hard to have it without people living on top of it. Double the population of Perth, Northbridge and West Perth we'd less likely to loose our hipsters.

 

[Docker82]

Just for context Henry and both our picks in the 50s values Henry as a 4th rounder. There is no way we're doing that.
If you include their F2 then pegged as a mid table finish it values him as pick 20. (If they finish last 14).
Given the picks in the 50s will come in massively and 29 might creep out a spot or 3 its probably about right just on pure points, but then that's not how it works in the real world:
Toss in an F3 from us then, again valued as mid table, it's 33. "Unders" on points, but probably fair give we get two second rounders.

The picks in the 50s are a good example of how certain picks are worth very different things to two different teams under this current points system.

Together they're worth around pick 40 and that's before Gold Coast match 2-3 bids which will likely bring them in significantly.

It's quite possible those picks are worth more points than pick 29 is by the time Hawthorn actually need to match a bid tbh.

 

[eastfreo75]

So two second round picks for Henry in effect?
I think you are dreaming.

I’m telling you guys now, pick 29 is the best we can do.
I listed about 7 or 8 examples of this scenario in recent years on this tread yesterday and they all finished the same. Freo getting less than what this board wanted or speculated.

We have apparently said we want a “pick between 15 and 25”
That means we want pick 25, and we will get pick 29.
Hawks F2 could be pick 22 - no way we are getting both!

Pick 29 in a crap draft, rather Henry go into the draft.

 

[pK75]

The picks in the 50s are a good example of how certain picks are worth very different things to two different teams under this current points system.

Together they're worth around pick 40 and that's before Gold Coast match 2-3 bids which will likely bring them in significantly.

It's quite possible those picks are worth more points than pick 29 is by the time Hawthorn actually need to match a bid tbh.

Spot on, 29 will be about 34 by the time the McCabe bid comes, where as 52 + 58 will be about the same (depends what happens with Gold Coast trades on the night, plus WB trading pick 17, both could potentially eat a lot of picks in the 40’s before the McCabe bid, bringing 52&58 forward) It may actually be better to hold them to see if their value increases.

 

[Dockeroo]

Got to remember that in a draft where they are saying just 45 players will be drafted, anything over pick 40 is junk. If there is only 45 players selected, well then pick 50 is worthless. You can select the 45th best player with pick 300 if you wish.

In some ways it highlights how ridiculous the points system now is. There is a value on every pick out to about pick 68. That was fine when 75 or 80 players were taken in the national draft back a few years ago. Nowadays since the MSD and other means are available to recruit players, that points value system is out dated.
If there is only 45 live picks in the draft before teams start passing, then you should not be able to use pick 50 and 53 and 58 to get points to match a bid at pick 2 for Jed Walter.

The system is broken.

 

[Paracleet]

Got to remember that in a draft where they are saying just 45 players will be drafted, anything over pick 40 is junk. If there is only 45 players selected, well then pick 50 is worthless. You can select the 45th best player with pick 300 if you wish.

In some ways it highlights how ridiculous the points system now is. There is a value on every pick out to about pick 68. That was fine when 75 or 80 players were taken in the national draft back a few years ago. Nowadays since the MSD and other means are available to recruit players, that points value system is out dated.
If there is only 45 live picks in the draft before teams start passing, then you should not be able to use pick 50 and 53 and 58 to get points to match a bid at pick 2 for Jed Walter.

The system is broken.

This is histrionics, its won't be 45. Ever since the introduction of the MSD and PSSD there has never been a main draft with less than 59 picks. Every year for 5 years now there has always been some idiot in the media saying it'll be only 50 picks this year and yet we never get near it.

 

[Docker82]

Got to remember that in a draft where they are saying just 45 players will be drafted, anything over pick 40 is junk. If there is only 45 players selected, well then pick 50 is worthless. You can select the 45th best player with pick 300 if you wish.

In some ways it highlights how ridiculous the points system now is. There is a value on every pick out to about pick 68. That was fine when 75 or 80 players were taken in the national draft back a few years ago. Nowadays since the MSD and other means are available to recruit players, that points value system is out dated.
If there is only 45 live picks in the draft before teams start passing, then you should not be able to use pick 50 and 53 and 58 to get points to match a bid at pick 2 for Jed Walter.

The system is broken.

There’s not a single chance less than 50 players get drafted. I swear we hear this rubbish from the media every single year. That and it’s a super draft next year.

But yes, the system is outdated and pretty much broken.

 

[Dockeroo]

There’s not a single chance less than 50 players get drafted. I swear we hear this rubbish from the media every single year. That and it’s a super draft next year.

But yes, the system is outdated and pretty much broken.

Well it depends I guess. It does appear this year that list turnover will be lower than normal. We will only select a max of 3 new players via the draft if as reported sharp joins and hamling stays.
It might be 50 or 52 players in the end.
Regardless the point stands that using picks in the 60s to match bids is still bullshit in that scenario.
If clubs were only allowed use the top 45 picks for bid matching, then they would have to pay something material not late junk picks if fortunate enough to get a top end FS or academy player to match

 

[Paracleet]

Well it depends I guess. It does appear this year that list turnover will be lower than normal. We will only select a max of 3 new players via the draft if as reported sharp joins and hamling stays.
It might be 50 or 52 players in the end.
Regardless the point stands that using picks in the 60s to match bids is still bullshit in that scenario.
If clubs were only allowed use the top 45 picks for bid matching, then they would have to pay something material not late junk picks if fortunate enough to get a top end FS or academy player to match

Seems pretty clear they need to move the 0 point from 74 to 60 or so

 

[DragoDelph]

Seems pretty clear they need to move the 0 point from 74 to 60 or so

Yeah, I think pick 60 should be the last one with any value. Once we get to 20 teams, will be 3x rounds worth of picks.

Lock in the points prior to the trade period, then any compo picks or priority picks carry 0 value, so clubs aren't disadvantaged twice.