Autopsy Welcome to Freo Liam Henry – Fremantle’s 3rd 2019 National Draft Pick [Match bid Pick #9]

[pK75]

I think the Brockman + 29 for 19 has some merit to it.
We then trade Henry + 52 + 58 for 19
We go to draft with 19,21,40.
Hawks get some loose change to help with McCabe bid.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I think the Brockman + 29 for 19 has some merit to it.
We then trade Henry + 52 + 58 for 19
We go to draft with 19,21,40.
Hawks get some loose change to help with McCabe bid.

I dont see WC giving up that pick, in anyway. It's too good a pick for Brockman and where he's at

 

[arsesmart]

Let’s just say that Henry will be having some sleepless nights during trade period.

I think Bell is annoyed enough with both Henry‘s trade request, and his dream weaving Manager egging him on, to stretch it out to the final hour to make them both sweat. Ultimately though, Henry will end up where he wants to go.

We will more than likely not get the pick we are hoping for, and resign ourselves to getting less from the deal.

Pragmatically speaking, Bell would be much better off aiming for a highly collaborative relationship with Young (yeah I know), so they're on the same page as much as possible. Almost like working from the same office on this.

The big proviso to this is Young and Henry actually recognising and acknowledging Freo's above and beyond efforts in developing him to this point, which of course may be miles from where their mindset is.

 

[Alfonz]

I'm actually hoping Freo peeps are just overly down on Henry and/or never liked Henry. Too many people saying it will be a pick in the 30s or a third round which is nutty to me. His last 10 games have a lot more weight than anything before it and for the whole year, his stats are comparable to HIll at the same age - imagine if it was just the last 10 games. Henry is an AFL quality wingman for the next 10 years, he's worth what Langdon was or when we traded for Hill. A pick in the 30s is a fail from Bell

But sometimes you are limited by what the destination club actually has.

If it is Hawthorn, we will be doing well to get 29. If WC give them 38 for Brockman, then Hawthorn will dig in on that being the trade "we rate Brockman highly, they are worth the same, blah blah blah". That would be the point where I would hope Bell just sends him to the PSD, but realistically that is never going to happen.

St Kilda won't give us 13 unless we give them something like 21 + Henry. They have 32. They will probably dig in on that.

Melbourne may be the best case with 24, but they also have 34 and will try not to budge from that. Look what they gave us for Langdon. I disagree Langdon (or Hawthorn Hill) were worth similar/less than Henry. Langdon and Hill were both more accomplished and had a greater body of work. I get what you are saying about the last 10 games from Henry, but a longer body of work still counts for a fair amount.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I think the Brockman + 29 for 19 has some merit to it.
We then trade Henry + 52 + 58 for 19
We go to draft with 19,21,40.
Hawks get some loose change to help with McCabe bid.

The only way WC give that up is if it's some kind of three way swap and WC move down marginally

Freo: Henry, 21 -> 19, Future 2nd (Hawks)
Hawks: Future 2nd, Brockman -> Henry
WC: 19 -> 21, Brockman

Maybe WC throw Hawks some late junk pick as well

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

But sometimes you are limited by what the destination club actually has.

If it is Hawthorn, we will be doing well to get 29. If WC give them 38 for Brockman, then Hawthorn will dig in on that being the trade "we rate Brockman highly, they are worth the same, blah blah blah". That would be the point where I would hope Bell just sends him to the PSD, but realistically that is never going to happen.

St Kilda won't give us 13 unless we give them something like 21 + Henry. They have 32. They will probably dig in on that.

Melbourne may be the best case with 24, but they also have 34 and will try not to budge from that. Look what they gave us for Langdon. I disagree Langdon (or Hawthorn Hill) were worth similar/less than Henry. Langdon and Hill were both more accomplished and had a greater body of work. I get what you are saying about the last 10 games from Henry, but a longer body of work still counts for a fair amount.

I dont subscribe to "doing well to get 29", it's taking unders and understandable given the position but it's not doing well.

If the last 10 games were all that mattered, he's worth a pick around 15 IMO, it's better than what Langdon and Hill were doing. He's been very good and I think we forget his age. I'm discounting it out to a pick in the 20s for the rest of the body of work.

 

[Taylor]

The only way WC give that up is if it's some kind of three way swap and WC move down marginally

Freo: Henry, 21 -> 19, Future 2nd (Hawks)
Hawks: Future 2nd, Brockman -> Henry
WC: 19 -> 21, Brockman

Maybe WC throw Hawks some late junk pick as well

I would expect that Hawthorn have to buy pick #19 with Brockman being basically free in their eyes.

#29, F2 and Brockman for #19 and #35

Then #19 for Henry.

Alternatively, St Kilda want him and we trade Henry and #40 (or F2) for #13 values Henry at pick #25

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I would expect that Hawthorn have to buy pick #19 with Brockman being basically free in their eyes.

#29, F2 and Brockman for #19 and #35

Then #19 for Henry.

Alternatively, St Kilda want him and we trade Henry and #40 for #13 values Henry at pick #25

Yeah, it's a stretch and I dont see WC giving it up but I think MAYBE only a two pick downgrade is worth considering for WC. Does kind of make him almost free? Leaves them the option of using later picks to give a team some points they dont "lose" a pick when they have a lot of picks to make

 

[Alfonz]

I dont subscribe to "doing well to get 29", it's taking unders and understandable given the position but it's not doing well.

If the last 10 games were all that mattered, he's worth a pick around 15 IMO, it's better than what Langdon and Hill were doing. He's been very good and I think we forget his age. I'm discounting it out to a pick in the 20s for the rest of the body of work.

I'm only saying that considering the reality of the situation. Especially with Bell at the helm, who I don't rate at all when it comes to "winning" trades. Not saying it isn't unders nor that I'd be happy, but I think opposition clubs would think he is gettable for a pick in the 30's, and getting 29 is doing better than that.

 

[arsesmart]

But sometimes you are limited by what the destination club actually has.

If it is Hawthorn, we will be doing well to get 29. If WC give them 38 for Brockman, then Hawthorn will dig in on that being the trade "we rate Brockman highly, they are worth the same, blah blah blah". That would be the point where I would hope Bell just sends him to the PSD, but realistically that is never going to happen.

St Kilda won't give us 13 unless we give them something like 21 + Henry. They have 32. They will probably dig in on that.

Melbourne may be the best case with 24, but they also have 34 and will try not to budge from that. Look what they gave us for Langdon. I disagree Langdon (or Hawthorn Hill) were worth similar/less than Henry. Langdon and Hill were both more accomplished and had a greater body of work. I get what you are saying about the last 10 games from Henry, but a longer body of work still counts for a fair amount.

Similarly, a big chunk of the sell is on potential, so if the destination club has future-upside near the top of the list they'll be more persuadable (particularly if there's the scent of competition lingering on the trade).

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I'm only saying that considering the reality of the situation. Especially with Bell at the helm, who I don't rate at all when it comes to "winning" trades. Not saying it isn't unders nor that I'd be happy, but I think opposition clubs would think he is gettable for a pick in the 30's, and getting 29 is doing better than that.

We'll find out I suppose, we dont have much else to do this trade period so we can be a bit stronger in a Henry trade. I think the compromised nature of the draft and lack of movement is going to throw up some wacky trades. Talks of Ratugolea needing a future 1st from Port for example...

 

[mattis117]

I think it's in Freo's interest to get this one done with a few days to spare to see if they can do some work with another club to change our overall draft position.

Just provides time to be flexible and get picks in the right area for who we're likely to target.

 

[Dockeroo]

We'll find out I suppose, we dont have much else to do this trade period so we can be a bit stronger in a Henry trade. I think the compromised nature of the draft and lack of movement is going to throw up some wacky trades. Talks of Ratugolea needing a future 1st from Port for example...

I’ve always been disappointed by what we have to pay and what we get when a player is leaving in recent years so for that reason I think it will be pick 29. I don’t think we will get better than that. Apart from trading with GC, we always get less than what we speculate.

Remember Jesse hogan for pick 50 - everyone scoffed at that initially but it’s what we got.
Clark for pick 27 we all thought - we had to give the F3 and bring it up to 22.
Cerra for pick 6 and 25 - ended up being 6 and an F3 we got from memory. (They used 25 on Motlop)

Langdon was another we got less than we thought for.
We paid more than what we all thought we should for Jackson.
We got an F2 for Logue and he was signing a monster deal in $$ terms but still that’s all we got .


List goes on.

It is best not get your hopes up too much. Pick 29 is not far off a reasonable cost recovery for a shit situation.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I’ve always been disappointed by what we have to pay and what we get when a player is leaving in recent years so for that reason I think it will be pick 29. I don’t think we will get better than that. Apart from trading with GC, we always get less than what we speculate.

Remember Jesse hogan for pick 50 - everyone scoffed at that initially but it’s what we got.
Clark for pick 27 we all thought - we had to give the F3 and bring it up to 22.
Cerra for pick 6 and 25 - ended up being 6 and an F3 we got from memory. (They used 25 on Motlop)

Langdon was another we got less than we thought for.
We paid more than what we all thought we should for Jackson.
We got an F2 for Logue and he was signing a monster deal in $$ terms but still that’s all we got .


List goes on.

It is best not get your hopes up too much. Pick 29 is not far off a reasonable cost recovery for a s**t situation.

I dont disagree with any of that, I just refuse to accept 29 is a "good outcome", it's the bare minimum IMO

 

[MadMundy]

I don't think the Brockman ideas will come to fruition, he already seems set on a trade to West Coast, we can try and bring in DGB in the trade, we don't have many true swingman players outside of Cox.

 

[ignoramus]

I think it's in Freo's interest to get this one done with a few days to spare to see if they can do some work with another club to change our overall draft position.

Just provides time to be flexible and get picks in the right area for who we're likely to target.

Can still trade picks after the player trade period ends, but I agree with the principle.

 

[Superkoops]

I dont disagree with any of that, I just refuse to accept 29 is a "good outcome", it's the bare minimum IMO

29 which will likely be 30 by the time the trade comes to fruition. We are chasing reportedly 15-25. Really can’t see us getting 15-19 (noting that 19 of WC will be 20). Other issues we don’t need more standalone picks. We are tight on list spots.

Hawks will offer 29/30, we are chasing around 20.

Either a third club gets involved like WC and your proposal of WC downgrading 19> 21 will certainly require hawks to receive likely our 52 and another pick of WC in the 50’s to make the deal work.

Essentially Hawks have no real need for 29/30. It sits around the mark where their F/S will be bid so they will be happy to pass that off.

Another alternative is:
29, 48, F4> Henry, 52, 58
We throw our F4 to GC for Sharp

Run with 21,29,40,48 (not great but values Henry around 25-26 on points).

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

29 which will likely be 30 by the time the trade comes to fruition. We are chasing reportedly 15-25. Really can’t see us getting 15-19 (noting that 19 of WC will be 20). Other issues we don’t need more standalone picks. We are tight on list spots.

Hawks will offer 29/30, we are chasing around 20.

Either a third club gets involved like WC and your proposal of WC downgrading 19> 21 will certainly require hawks to receive likely our 52 and another pick of WC in the 50’s to make the deal work.

Essentially Hawks have no real need for 29/30. It sits around the mark where their F/S will be bid so they will be happy to pass that off.

Another alternative is:
29, 48, F4> Henry, 52, 58
We throw our F4 to GC for Sharp

Run with 21,29,40,48 (not great but values Henry around 25-26 on points).

I dont see us taking more than 3 picks this year and with where everyone is picking, it's not the worst idea to have that third pick just be right at the end of the draft.

Why not make us the team that Hawks trade 29 to for points?

Go Henry for a future 2nd and we get 29 for 40, 52 and 58 which is an extra 200 points for McCabe

 

[mayne iac]

He's gotta be going to one of the clubs still in it
St Kilda for mine

 

[Superkoops]

I dont see us taking more than 3 picks this year and with where everyone is picking, it's not the worst idea to have that third pick just be right at the end of the draft.

Why not make us the team that Hawks trade 29 to for points?

Go Henry for a future 2nd and we get 29 for 40, 52 and 58 which is an extra 200 points for McCabe

Don’t mind that. They could upgrade one of the picks we give them or chase down a F3 for Brockman to offset the F2.

 

[Purpletown]

Three month ago we would have been lucky to get pick 50 for him, luckily he has improved heaps since then. The downside to that is Henry is now attractive to other clubs and now wants to move to cash in on his lift in form. Not a lot we can do about it unfortunately.

 

[DQ 4EVER]

It would be ideal if he didn't nominate one club & there was a bidding war.
But that ain't gonna happen

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Kram]

Would prefer him to stay but I will be fine if we got say pick 20 or better for him and just move on.

 

[Docker4eva]

29 which will likely be 30 by the time the trade comes to fruition. We are chasing reportedly 15-25. Really can’t see us getting 15-19 (noting that 19 of WC will be 20). Other issues we don’t need more standalone picks. We are tight on list spots.

Hawks will offer 29/30, we are chasing around 20.

Either a third club gets involved like WC and your proposal of WC downgrading 19> 21 will certainly require hawks to receive likely our 52 and another pick of WC in the 50’s to make the deal work.

Essentially Hawks have no real need for 29/30. It sits around the mark where their F/S will be bid so they will be happy to pass that off.

Another alternative is:
29, 48, F4> Henry, 52, 58
We throw our F4 to GC for Sharp

Run with 21,29,40,48 (not great but values Henry around 25-26 on points).

Hopefully we're not actually saying 'pick 15-25'.

Because that means we'll take 25. No way another club says here have pick 15 when they know we'll take something worse.

On SM-G998B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Docker82]

How about something like:

Freo: Pick 29, F2(Haw)
Haw: Henry, Picks 52 and 58, F3 (Freo)

I think pick 29 will be the main piece of the trade and there’s little we do about it.

It’ll be like the Jordan Clark

6

Jordan Clark

Age

24

Ht

185cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.7

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

4.3

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.6

4star

MG

172.0

3star

D

12.5

3star

K

8.5

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.5

2star

MG

172.0

3star

D

12.2

3star

K

10.4

4star

HB

1.8

2star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.4

4star

trade. Pick 29 isn’t quite enough and Hawthorn will just need to top it up a bit. Getting a F2 next year despite giving up a F3 would be a good result.

Also I’m starting to think we’re only taking three picks so Pick 52 and 58 are effectively nothing if we get pick 29. Just a slightly generous gift to Hawthorn to keep get the trade done.