List Mgmt. 2023 Trade & List Management Thread II - Goldy&Bucket➡️✅/'24 EoFR & #44➡️Stephens&#25✅/#21&#25➡️Fisher&#17✅/'24 EoFR➡️#18✅

[Lore]

Hello Shinboners!

The embedded resources below are kept up to date by the trade board mods (as much as possible – we are human after all). Enjoy!

Spoiler: 2023 Draft Order

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order, aka Future Picks

Spoiler: Blue Tick Rumours

 

[Sphynx]

Gold Coast would. They'll get 10 off WB. They'll just lose it with Walter, Read & Rogers bids so it's in their best interest to trade it.

They'll need points next year as well because they have another two guns coming through their academy.

Yeah, everyone is stating GC need points this year, but they equally need them next year.

Pick 10 for the 2 xPP's even with other shuffling makes way too much sense for all parties.

When you factor in Pick 10 could be pick 14 on draft night, it's an amazing deal for GC tbh.

It's basically 14 for 22 & 24 after next years bids (of which there will be another 4 or 5 in the top 20 with Lombard, Ashcroft, Welsh etc)

 

[big_e]

I don't understand why every pick 1 trade scenario has to involve pick 2 instead of 3. There's no rule we have to trade 2 for 1. Give them pick 3 so that way we secure McKercher as well.

Because we don't have pick 3 yet?

 

[Merlin007]

So I know there's statistics, damned statistics and lies, but in the context of some of the proposals for us to give up multiple picks for Reid, I had a look at the 2017, 2018 and 2019 drafts (I stopped at 2020, being the COVID year, and the most recent drafts are still works in progress as to whether output lives up to the picks where players were taken).

The results in terms of output (games played) and likelihood of a 'bust' (delisting);



Top 10 busts are rare (Lochie O'Brien

4

Lochie O'brien

Age

25

Ht

185cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

9.3

4star

HB

3.9

3star

M

4.5

4star

T

1.3

3star

CL

0.7

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.0

4star

K

9.8

4star

HB

3.2

3star

M

5.2

5star

T

1.4

4star

CL

1.0

3star

in 2017, and McAsey in 2019), whereas post pick 20, we're looking at a fail rate of up to 45%

The lesson for me is the need for multiple picks inside 20, and preferably inside 10, given 'output' for the Top 10 is roughly 40% greater than for the picks in the 11-20 range

We've got such a hand - don't stuff it up by selling the farm for one player

 

[The Warlord]

Mabior should be giving his agent an extra cut imo, what a deal

 

[Merlin007]

Mabior should be giving his agent an extra cut imo, what a deal

If he genuinely went back to Qld for family reasons, I can understand why he'd take years over money, why go through the hassle again of upping sticks for a couple of years.

 

[Passmore]

Mabior should be giving his agent an extra cut imo, what a deal

Hawthorn have copped the “shit team tax”.

 

[Moti]

Gold Coast would. They'll get 10 off WB. They'll just lose it with Walter, Read & Rogers bids so it's in their best interest to trade it.

They'll need points next year as well because they have another two guns coming through their academy.

This is a key point. They have both Chol and Hollands leaving and will likely get picks that will contribute around 1000 points. They have around 2000 points excluding Pick 4. So if they work with us:

500 points - Savings by NM not bidding 2 or 3 -->4 (this could change if we target Pick 1)
1000 points - Trade exits
2000 points - current picks (up to 60)

Matching a bid at Pick 4 is 1,627 points. (Walters)

Matching a bid at Pick 10 is 1,167 points (Reid)

This leaves 700 points which would likely be leave them maybe 200-300 short for Rodgers. (between 12-15)

Would be suprised if GC traded Pick 4 for a lot of capital this year, I would think the bigger hook would be a pick next year with something this year worth between 500-800 points to finish off the 4th kid.

 

[tiltraise]

Could we clean our pp 20 via Carlton?

In: F1 (CAR), F2 (CAR), Fisher
Out: PP 20, F2

 

[giantroo]

 

[Sphynx]

Of course it is

Who in their right mind will trump that.

 

[LB2Snake]

The Bulldogs are insane. Crazy offer. I hope it's for targeting someone we take before 4

 

[HBFlanker]

Gold Coast would. They'll get 10 off WB. They'll just lose it with Walter, Read & Rogers bids so it's in their best interest to trade it.

They'll need points next year as well because they have another two guns coming through their academy.

If we pull that off, sensational.

Could we clean our pp 20 via Carlton?

In: F1 (CAR), F2 (CAR), Fisher
Out: PP 20, F2

Carltons list management team would need to resign if that occured

 

[justroyal]

So there’s either a legitimate star at 4 or the draft isn’t rated highly after 9?

 

[Flawed Genius]

Okay so say Reid and Walter are gone

The Dogs would be angling at one of Duursma Curtin McKercher Watson or Sanders surely

Can't see it being Watson with Weightman & Jones already on their list

They're sorted for big body mids and KPPs, so not Curtin

Duursma as a third tall/HFF?

 

[susurrar]

no idea what to make of that bulldogs deal. for the posters that scour opposition clubs boards, what do the dogs fans make of that?

 

[Makeshift Park]

Here's what I reckon would be a good set of deals.

Trade 54 to Sydney for Stephens

Trade F3 to Carlton for Fisher (for Camporeale pts)

Trade 60 to GWS for Haynes

Trade 15 + 20 to Geelong for pick 7.

Trade F19 + F20 + 42 to GC for pick 10

2 + 10 to WC for 1

Take 1, 3, 7 to the draft. That's:

• Reid,
• Curtin or Watson or McKercher,
• Caddy or O'Sullivan.

Take Shaun Mannagh and Ethan Phillips via SSP.

That's 8 players in. Everybody goes to the pub. Job done.

 

[Sphynx]

Okay so say Reid and Walter are gone

The Dogs would be angling at one of Duursma Curtin McKercher Watson or Sanders surely

Can't see it being Watson with Weightman & Jones already on their list

They're sorted for big body mids and KPPs, so not Curtin

Duursma as a third tall/HFF?

They are chasing Watson according to Twoomey.

Hawthorn wants Duursma, but so does Essendon and may want our Pick 3 if it comes through to get ahead of them.

 

[trooroo4life]

Here's what I reckon would be a good set of deals.

Trade 54 to Sydney for Stephens

Trade F3 to Carlton for Fisher (for Camporeale pts)

Trade 60 to GWS for Haynes

Trade 15 + 20 to Geelong for pick 7.

Trade F19 + F20 + 42 to GC for pick 10

2 + 10 to WC for 1

Take 1, 3, 9 to the draft. That's:

• Reid,
• Curtin or Watson or McKercher,
• Caddy or O'Sullivan.

Take Shaun Mannagh and Ethan Phillips via SSP.

That's 8 players in. Everybody goes to the pub. Job done.

I like it.

 

[LETSGOKANGAS]

You'd think WC are not 100% committed to taking Reid at 1, especially if they have been entertaining trades and whoring pick1 around for multiple first round picks.

DO NOT TRADE FOR PICK 1!

 

[The Warlord]

Hawthorn have copped the “s**t team tax”.

High end bracket creep version too

 

[Flawed Genius]

Hawthorn wants Duursma, but so does Essendon and may want our Pick 3 if it comes through to get ahead of them.

8 & F1? Or more

 

[hurricane]

So there’s either a legitimate star at 4 or the draft isn’t rated highly after 9?

Or they are making sure they get ahead of Croft?

 

[Merlin007]

Okay so say Reid and Walter are gone

The Dogs would be angling at one of Duursma Curtin McKercher Watson or Sanders surely

Can't see it being Watson with Weightman & Jones already on their list

They're sorted for big body mids and KPPs, so not Curtin

Duursma as a third tall/HFF?

surely they've got enough talls? you're right about their big bodied mids, but other than Smith, none are in the first flush of youth - Bontempelli will be a 28 next year, so I'd have thought Sanders?

 

[Ligma]

We must take Watson at 3

Just so we ruin the sole reason why the dogs are trading up in the draft

 

[giantroo]