List Mgmt. 2023 National Draft prospects

[manicpie]

Not everyone needs to be super quick. Look at at Tom Mitchell and Pendles. Neither have ever been quick but both have been absolute stars of the game

Usually, the top quality inside mids with pace are a bonus. They are usually elite, Dusty as an example but there are plenty of quality inside mids that don't have a whole lot of pace

 

[Couch Coach]

All this talk about the Stephen’s kid being too developed and slow staggers me. He has a skill that is pretty important. He gets a stack of the footy. He smashed us in the vfl game he played. Looked quite composed too. Looks to be a natural inside mid from that game.

When you say he smashed us his stats were:


This is in a match that Geelong lost by 74 points.

Our best players were:


We just delisted our 4th best player from that match.
Others have noted that Macrae and Carmichael won't make it so I'm note sure how Stevens could be rated as a keeper against these guys.
Stevens despite his 100kg frame could only lay 1 tackle.
All of our guys had the same or more tackles while also hitting the scoreboard.

 

[Couch Coach]

Were our 6 rookies in 2023 Dean Murley Steene Begg Johnson and Noble
With Markov the injury SSP for Dean?

Wilson was Cat B
And "Carmichael and not Noble. Noble has already gone onto main list." as per sr36

 

[Harry O]

so we have 6 spots vacant
I guess we will promote a few of the rookies to senior list to reduce the number of picks we need to use in national draft
And it seems Joe Richards has survived the Murley treatment

 

[Abdul_The_Bull]

Not sure if I have it all correct, but if Will Kelly

20

Will Kelly

Age

24

Ht

194cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

5.0

1star

K

4.0

2star

HB

1.0

1star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

MG

108.0

2star

D

5.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

1.0

1star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

MG

108.0

2star

D

5.0

1star

K

4.0

2star

HB

1.0

2star

M

2.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

MG

108.0

2star

is not being offered a contract for 2024, why wasn't he 'delisted' along with the others two weeks ago? Why the delay?

 

[manicpie]

Not sure if I have it all correct, but if Will Kelly is not being offered a contract for 2024, why wasn't he 'delisted' along with the others two weeks ago? Why the delay?

Well, it took him 5 years to play 5 games, he can wait another 2 weeks

 

[Bianconeri]

its all based on historic / actual trends and behaviour. For every Cripps there are 10 other big kids that dominate at junior level, only to become less athletic / slower by the time they hit 20. Or other kids just catch up and pass them. I can remember a kid who was 5' 11" and solid at age 14 and was playing centre in rep basketball teams. He never grew another inch, and gave the sport away after smaller and more agile kids soon grew taller than him... and were obv much faster than him by U18. Have already mentioned Danny Stanley & Shackleton, whom MM salivated over... only for them to go nowhere.

Most players that get drafted don’t make it so you can always find more examples of busts then successes.

 

[Apex36]

All this talk about the Stephen’s kid being too developed and slow staggers me. He has a skill that is pretty important. He gets a stack of the footy. He smashed us in the vfl game he played. Looked quite composed too. Looks to be a natural inside mid from that game.

I think you and others might be putting a little too much weight on a single VFL game, which by the sounds of it was likely the best game he played all year.

I’m more inclined to listen to the people who’ve watched him all year and know his faults/downside than those who watched him smash our VFL mids (which he really didn’t) and think he’s some sort of inside animal who is going to be a great AFL player.

 

[Matt_352]

One of DeMattia and Edwards and one of Schoenmaker or Zakostelsky and I'd be happy as F. If we could take a punt late on Moir late if he is still there thatd be the

 

[Bramax]

Most players that get drafted don’t make it so you can always find more examples of busts than successes.

This was as of 2017 so it’s not up to date. Less than a third make it to 50 games and the numbers fall away dramatically after that.

 

[TradeDraft]

 

[Rusty Beam]

When you say he smashed us his stats were:
View attachment 1840687

This is in a match that Geelong lost by 74 points.

Our best players were:
View attachment 1840690

We just delisted our 4th best player from that match.
Others have noted that Macrae and Carmichael won't make it so I'm note sure how Stevens could be rated as a keeper against these guys.
Stevens despite his 100kg frame could only lay 1 tackle.
All of our guys had the same or more tackles while also hitting the scoreboard.

I think you’re being a bit harsh on Stevens. It was a ripping game from an 18 year old kid on the back of a fantastic and consistent season.

Heck some draft age kids from previous years, who have played most the year in a second tier comps, never get close to that level of performance even once for the year.

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

 

[petrie pie]

I wonder who the club will try to get as SSP,s this pre season, it looks like Kelly maybe one of them I am not sure why because he has had 5 yrs to show something and he has not,so for me it is pointless having him train over summer.

I think if Josh Ayre is over his injury I would not mind him getting a pre season try out 196 cm so key position height and I thought he looked okay to me at times certainly prefer him to train than Will who has had his time.

How many can the club have train with them over summer if it is restricted then W Kelly should not be picked IMV.

 

[magpies42]

Ideally we take what ends up being a top 7 or so player with our first pick. Redrafts are littered with players that come from well outside the first round.

You won’t get this outcome if you pick positionally like most on here want.

We need to take best available, happy to even speculate if potential upside outweighs risk ( think Pendlebury).

The other reality is that we need players in every position bar small forwards and potentially small/medium backs.

 

[Daicosian silk]

View attachment 1840908This was as of 2017 so it’s not up to date. Less than a third make it to 50 games and the numbers fall away dramatically after that.

When you look at these numbers it’s easy to see why it’s very much well worth adopting a strategy of chasing established players in their mid 20s like Lachie Schultz who will likely end up playing over 200 games in his career. Even if it costs the club a first round pick you are picking up an almost guaranteed success. Assuming Collingwood finish top 2 next year, it costs the club a pick somewhere around pick 20. A player at this pick would be far less certain to play 100 games let alone 200. I know the Pies also gave up pick 34 but a pick there is even more likely to be a miss than a hit

 

[Rusty Beam]

I wonder who the club will try to get as SSP,s this pre season, it looks like Kelly maybe one of them I am not sure why because he has had 5 yrs to show something and he has not,so for me it is pointless having him train over summer.

I’m still keen on the club looking at Riley Bonner during the SSP.

I think he could be great depth for us and his kicking in particular could be an amazing weapon for us with our game style.

 

[Scodog10]

I think you’re being a bit harsh on Stevens. It was a ripping game from an 18 year old kid on the back of a fantastic and consistent season.

Heck some draft age kids from previous years, who have played most the year in a second tier comps, never get close to that level of performance even once for the year.

Yeah, I have concerns over his ability to make it at the next level, but that did feel harsh on a guy that’s 18, was playing with his 4th (?) team for the year and on a numbers basis in game 1 held his own against a bunch of 22-24 yo’s that folks on here talk up regularly as AFL chances.

The questions I have with Stevens which I can’t answer as a non draft person is whether he’s too one dimensional? Does he have the fast feet to get out of contest? How is he on the spread? Basically can he pull off the JDG part of the 11th goal of the GF… I think it’s fine to be a man child at that stage of your career so long as you aren’t a dominant player because of it and that would be my worry because the likes of Danger, Green, Newcombe, Cripps, Bont and Dunkley will eat him alive if he doesn’t have enough mid traits aside from size.

 

[ant22]

Yeah, I have concerns over his ability to make it at the next level, but that did feel harsh on a guy that’s 18, was playing with his 4th (?) team for the year and on a numbers basis in game 1 held his own against a bunch of 22-24 yo’s that folks on here talk up regularly as AFL chances.

The questions I have with Stevens which I can’t answer as a non draft person is whether he’s too one dimensional? Does he have the fast feet to get out of contest? How is he on the spread? Basically can he pull off the JDG part of the 11th goal of the GF… I think it’s fine to be a man child at that stage of your career so long as you aren’t a dominant player because of it and that would be my worry because the likes of Danger, Green, Newcombe, Cripps, Bont and Dunkley will eat him alive if he doesn’t have enough mid traits aside from size.

No he won’t pull of the jdg goal but 99% of players in the comp won’t either. I don’t think anyone sees the kid as a potential jdg, danger, Cripps or Dusty but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a handy inside distributor. He might not make it but a tall strong mid who gets 28 touches a game at every level he has been tested at must be worth a shot in what is considered a weak draft.

 

[ant22]

I think you and others might be putting a little too much weight on a single VFL game, which by the sounds of it was likely the best game he played all year.

I’m more inclined to listen to the people who’ve watched him all year and know his faults/downside than those who watched him smash our VFL mids (which he really didn’t) and think he’s some sort of inside animal who is going to be a great AFL player.

You need to go no further than the success of rookie drafts to see many recruiters get it wrong.

His numbers in tac show these performances are consistent. And you’re comparing him to players who have been in the system for a few years.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Yeah, I have concerns over his ability to make it at the next level, but that did feel harsh on a guy that’s 18, was playing with his 4th (?) team for the year and on a numbers basis in game 1 held his own against a bunch of 22-24 yo’s that folks on here talk up regularly as AFL chances.

The questions I have with Stevens which I can’t answer as a non draft person is whether he’s too one dimensional? Does he have the fast feet to get out of contest? How is he on the spread? Basically can he pull off the JDG part of the 11th goal of the GF… I think it’s fine to be a man child at that stage of your career so long as you aren’t a dominant player because of it and that would be my worry because the likes of Danger, Green, Newcombe, Cripps, Bont and Dunkley will eat him alive if he doesn’t have enough mid traits aside from size.

No he doesn’t have the burst from stoppage speed of a Danger or Bont. But then again I’d say neither do the other guys you mentioned in Newcombe, Cripps, Green or Dunkley.

His spread from contest, defensive accountability and ability to get from contest to contest are his standout traits IMO (on top of his obvious clearance/contested ball work and ability to fight through tackles to get his hands clear).

Personally I see him having fairly similar attributes to a Green, Dunkley, Cripps type of player when deployed as a midfielder.

He also actually reminds me of Maynard as a junior. And I could easily see him playing a similar role in the backline, which adds another string to his bow.

All things considered IMO if he’s there at our second pick in the 30’s he’s a worthwhile selection.

 

[Apex36]

You need to go no further than the success of rookie drafts to see many recruiters get it wrong.

His numbers in tac show these performances are consistent. And you’re comparing him to players who have been in the system for a few years.

60% of rookies never play a senior game and less than 10% make it to 100 games, so if you think you’ve made a strong argument regarding the ‘success’ of rookie drafts, you need to think again. Yes, a few players fall through the cracks, but by and large, rookies are available there for a reason.

I haven’t compared him to anyone, you’re getting yourself confused here.

 

[Scodog10]

No he won’t pull of the jdg goal but 99% of players in the comp won’t either. I don’t think anyone sees the kid as a potential jdg, danger, Cripps or Dusty but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a handy inside distributor. He might not make it but a tall strong mid who gets 28 touches a game at every level he has been tested at must be worth a shot in what is considered a weak draft.

Well 99% of players aren’t big bodied inside mids. By position most top level players are putting themselves in position to either kick or prevent that goal. What role does a handy inside mid have at Collingwood? I’d argue Macrae is exactly that so why would there be interest in a second Macrae? Is what you’ve described a step up on Carmichael?

At that point of the draft I think it comes down to traits and if what Rusty has suggested is true he’s a chance because it gives him dual position scope. Personally though I’d be surprised if we aren’t more interested in Hastie or a bid on Graham or Delean depending on how the draft falls.

 

[cityslick1]

Tassie duo surge into first round mix as rival prospects reveal dark horse options: AFL draft bolters

Tassie duo surge into first round mix as rival prospects reveal dark horse options: AFL draft bolters

www.foxsports.com.au

Good article…

 

[loki04]

This kid is 100kg though. Crisp wasn't like this guy

Not Crisp. Cripps. But yeah he was only 192cm and 90kg at the draft.

Ended up 195cm and 96kg.