Welcome Welcome to Hawthorn: Jasper Scaife - Pick 5, 2024 MSD

[Pinoy Hawk]

Scaife is back.


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[mustang]

Scaife is back.


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Would be good if his pushed into the team by season end and if we play finals he playing with Dear.

 

[Lawsy]

Would be good if his pushed into the team by season end and if we play finals he playing with Dear.

It's all good to dream that this partnership may form into something that we could rely on in finals but 2024 is a pipe dream unless the Chols Royce goes down. Fingers crossed that doesn't happen as Chol, although only 7 months more advanced with the game plan and leading patterns, is a huge piece of the play book and Scaife is yet to play an AFL Game. IMO

 

[HedgeFund]

Would be good if his pushed into the team by season end and if we play finals he playing with Dear.

Actually maybe not good….because if he ends up playing AFL in 2024 - it’s probably not due to us continuing to win games.

 

[Nugett]

Think his kicking is going to be a major weapon in future years. Having someone that can kick the ball 60+m playing outside the 50, is going to make teams rethink about flooding back as much. It should leave Lewis/Chol/Dear in the forward 50 to take marks a bit more easily. Will also free the smalls to be more opportunistic on the ground.

 

[scrim reaper]

Think his kicking is going to be a major weapon in future years. Having someone that can kick the ball 60+m playing outside the 50, is going to make teams rethink about flooding back as much. It should leave Lewis/Chol/Dear in the forward 50 to take marks a bit more easily. Will also free the smalls to be more opportunistic on the ground.

If he can manage to make it reliable from ~55m at AFL level I certainly think it would have an impact on spacing.

Not as transferable or transcendent but akin to Steph Curry's ability to create a gravity well around him opening up driving lanes for teammates.

Unsure of the numbers for conversation rates from outside 50 set shots vs sending it high and long to the goal square but I'd imagine an expected return would lean towards having a shot. I think there is also a lot tied up around 'doing the team thing' that may go against the maths a bit here. As well as the fact that missing gives the ball back to the other team (big factor).

I think it would need to be at an absolutely elite level of set shot kicking from that range to make it a focal point of a game plan but it's certainly an interesting proposition to work with.

All very intriguing and I think if it was any of our last 5 years we'd probably be getting a look at him around about now in the year.

 

[scrim reaper]

As a side note I am not sure how to check this but is there anyone in the AFL currently that converts from 50+ with any kind of regularity?

 

[KermitJagger]

As a side note I am not sure how to check this but is there anyone in the AFL currently that converts from 50+ with any kind of regularity?

From general play:

Chad Warner is the only bloke who has more than 10 shots from outside 50, for a return of 6.5 with 1 no score.

From a set shot:

H Mckay - 14 shots, 3.4, 7 no score
Walker - 13 shots, 4.5, 4 no score
Cameron - 12 shots, 5.3, 4 no score
Daniher - 12 shots, 4.5, 3 no score
Curnow - 11 shots, 3.8, 0 no score
JUH - 11 shots, 2.4, 5 no score

So no, not as many as there used to be, at least observationally. I imagine game plan, playing the percentages and workrate & exhaustion play a big part in that.

Hawthorn are outright last as a club for shots from outside 50 with 28, Sydney are outright first with 48.

 

[scrim reaper]

Much appreciated KermitJagger

Do you know if rushed behinds off those kicks contribute to no score or behinds?

And I assume no score includes both out on the full and the ball ending up in general play/falling short?

Anecdotally I feel as if I have seen McKay look for a short option quite a bit when he's outside 50. Walker I feel goes for it almost every time.

Hawks being at the bottom of attempts is unsurprising, feels rare for someone to have a crack. Probably right on the edge of Chol's range and he often plays pretty deep. Dear is pushing it from the range too but hit one from about that mark v Richmond that surprised me a bit. Aside from that Amon and Sicily certainly have the range but teams are a lot more awake to that these days.

 

[KermitJagger]

Much appreciated KermitJagger

Do you know if rushed behinds off those kicks contribute to no score or behinds?

And I assume no score includes both out on the full and the ball ending up in general play/falling short?

Anecdotally I feel as if I have seen McKay look for a short option quite a bit when he's outside 50. Walker I feel goes for it almost every time.

Hawks being at the bottom of attempts is unsurprising, feels rare for someone to have a crack. Probably right on the edge of Chol's range and he often plays pretty deep. Dear is pushing it from the range too but hit one from about that mark v Richmond that surprised me a bit. Aside from that Amon and Sicily certainly have the range but teams are a lot more awake to that these days.

As far as I know, rushed behinds are rushed behinds and aren't attributed to anyone. No score is anything which doesn't score so you're right, not making the distance and OOB or OOBOTF.

I think for us, we're so small in the forward line and we run so hard that you're just not gonna have the petrol tickets to hoist it 50, and guys like Sicily who can are guarded very closely near the arcs.

 

[4THAWN]

Saw K.Farrell for port unload a great goal from outside 50 on the weekend, its certainly a positive attribute.

I hope scaife gets the ball 75 out after the siren goes one day and has to torp one from almost 80 out.

 

[hawkinoz]

Problem I see with Skaife at BHH is that he is playing too deep. He should be playing a lot higher up given his kicking weapons.

Those who watch him live can comment on his agility and running patterns. In last game he was invisible for 1st 2 quarters playing deep and then suddenly popped up for 2 goals, one from outside the 50.

 

[The Chad and I]

Problem I see with Skaife at BHH is that he is playing too deep. He should be playing a lot higher up given his kicking weapons.

Those who watch him live can comment on his agility and running patterns. In last game he was invisible for 1st 2 quarters playing deep and then suddenly popped up for 2 goals, one from outside the 50.

Most forwards drift in and out of games.
I'm not sure why people have the expectation of a four quarter performance from a forward.
Chol and Dear also go missing for large parts of a game.
So too Gunston and Breust, even during their peak years.
Every forward goes "missing" during games.
Even their good games.

 

[Harper_Hawk]

I would give this kid a go in the firsts. See what he’s got on the big stage. We could play three talls at some stage with Chol Dear and him. Only a matter of timing.


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[The Jet From Poowong]

I would give this kid a go in the firsts. See what he’s got on the big stage. We could play three talls at some stage with Chol Dear and him. Only a matter of timing.


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He is really going to have to earn it now. If we were not in the serious position we are now, he may been given a run this year. Cannot see it now. Big pre season and who knows next year. He has ambition so it is a good start.

 

[The Chad and I]

He is really going to have to earn it now. If we were not in the serious position we are now, he may been given a run this year. Cannot see it now. Big pre season and who knows next year. He has ambition so it is a good start.

I agree with this.
We are in contention, Scaife will have to force his way in.
A good 4-5 goal performance will pressure selectors.

Otherwise coming in and establishing consistent form at BH can be considered a win for a MSD pick.
Good base for next season.

 

[Mojo]

You probably have to consider what Scaife's' deficiencies would be at AFL level, too.

He may kick a couple of goals, but what might his opponent do when he gets possession?

 

[Kommbat]

Agreed, ideally you'd want him to be getting to a point where he has the tank and confidence to play that roaming CHF role. Get him taking a few marks in the corridor and unloading into the 50.

You unlock so much potential for ball movement and transition with these deadly long kicks. Salivating at the thought of a 3 kick end to end play Amon>Sicily>Scaife>Goal

 

[moginie]

He'll have his moments when Box Hill play in the finals. Let's see how he copes with the increase in pressure then. Not saying he can't, but he's an 18 month project. There's no need to rush him.

 

[CD Xbow]

He'll have his moments when Box Hill play in the finals. Let's see how he copes with the increase in pressure then. Not saying he can't, but he's an 18 month project. There's no need to rush him.

We got a big forward last time BH played a final, only he was on the other side.
If Scaife does OK in the next couple of BH matches I'd like to see him get a game in the last couple of games of the home and away. We are running pretty short in the forward like and opponents may find us out, perhaps a greater risk is that Chol or Dear get injured and we don't have a lot of back up.

 

[marklar]

Let's see how he copes with the increase in pressure then ...he's an 18 month project. There's no need to rush him.

Exactly this. We bought him in as insurance, there was no expectations that he would be in the 1s this season. He's on the list and will have to make the best possible case to push for selection this year, and do a full preseason to make his case next year.

 

[TylerDurden]

He'll be a player. Least of our worries.

 

[Brant]

Problem I see with Skaife at BHH is that he is playing too deep. He should be playing a lot higher up given his kicking weapons.

Those who watch him live can comment on his agility and running patterns. In last game he was invisible for 1st 2 quarters playing deep and then suddenly popped up for 2 goals, one from outside the 50.

He's not had an AFL pre-season yet & from what I understand, he spent last off/pre-season focusing on size / strength.

He's gotta play deep (FF) or he'll blow up.

Get him running October through March, building his tank & agility etc. He'll probs drop a couple of kilo as well.

Then* we can see him venture out to CHF.


*realistically, unless he's got a natural tank, it could well take him a few off-seasons to build that running capacity. But he's 19 - we've got plenty of time with him. Very exciting prospect!

 

[Yardie]

From general play:

Chad Warner is the only bloke who has more than 10 shots from outside 50, for a return of 6.5 with 1 no score.

From a set shot:

H Mckay - 14 shots, 3.4, 7 no score
Walker - 13 shots, 4.5, 4 no score
Cameron - 12 shots, 5.3, 4 no score
Daniher - 12 shots, 4.5, 3 no score
Curnow - 11 shots, 3.8, 0 no score
JUH - 11 shots, 2.4, 5 no score

So no, not as many as there used to be, at least observationally. I imagine game plan, playing the percentages and workrate & exhaustion play a big part in that.

Hawthorn are outright last as a club for shots from outside 50 with 28, Sydney are outright first with 48.

There was a time that I'd take Ben Dixon to take a shot within 40 and Fev outside of that if my life depended on it.....

 

[HedgeFund]

Jasper looks like he will be a handy player for us in 2025, and potentially beyond.

As for those saying we should just pick him in the AFL side - the only logic I can make of that view is they must have been mining for opals in Coober Pedy for the past 3 months and only just surfaced.

Otherwise, they'd have realised (as have most of us) that our current forward line is working very well indeed, and ..............there's absolutely no reason to change it.

So hopefully Jasper plays a couple of VFL finals at BHH and then gets a great pre-season going with the aim to be in contention for the AFL team as a KPF in 2025.