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Hung parliament anyone? 6 cross-benchers in the House of Reps is not impossible (Wiilkie, McGowan, Bandt, Katter, possibly Windsor and a 2nd Greens seat).

Jones, Bolt and Price will be near-deafening.

Might end up having Nick X as their main negotiating hurdle.

Sturt is the major one. By all reports Pyne was a bit agitated when he saw the polling for his electorate. "“The two-party preferred results reveal that not only is Mr Pyne facing a massive swing away from him towards Labor (52-48 LIB ALP 2PP, compared with 60-40 LIB ALP 2PP at the last...

Libs timed the controversies well with them all appearing whilst the government (and many others) are on holiday. Wouldn't be surprised if the Coalition outdo their TPP % from the 2013 election. Will be very interesting to see how well the Nick Xenephon Team does (could pick up a few seats in...

What should the amount of tax paid be based on? The pure amount of money generated or should they take into account what it takes to generate that money? I mean it's easy to say that it should be based purely on income but what if expenses outweigh the revenue?

What you could do is adopt the method used to elect the NSW legislative assembly "optional preferential voting " where voters are able to number as many or as few squares as they wish. To be elected the candidate has to receive a majority of votes, this system does favour first preferences more...

Latest ReachTEL figures Primaries: L/NP: 48.8 (+2.1) ALP: 31.1 (-1.9) GRN: 11.2 (-0.1) Two Party Preferred: L/NP 55 (+2) ALP 45 (-2) Approval/Disapproval: Turnbull: 48.2 (+0.6) / 14.8 (-1.3) Shorten: 20.6 (-2.3) / 47.5 (+1.2) Preferred PM: Turnbull: 71.3 (+2.4) Shorten: 28.7 (-2.4) When...

Interesting reading the state of the polls. Morgan: 56-44 Ipsos: 56-44 Newspoll: 53-47 Essential: 52-48.

Ipsos Primaries: L/NP: 48 (+3) ALP: 29 (-1) GRN: 13 (-1) Two-party preferred: L/NP: 56 (+3) ALP: 44 (-3) Approval ratings (Approve/Disapprove): Turnbull: 69 (+1) / 16 (-1) Shorten: 29 (-3) / 57 (+1) Preferred PM: Turnbull: 69 (+2) Shorten: 18 (-3) Morgan Primaries: L/NP: 46 (-1) ALP: 28...

Back to the polls. Morgan and Essential have been released over the past few days. Morgan Primaries: L/NP: 47 (+0.5) ALP: 28.5 (+1) GRN: 14.5 (-1) Two-party preferred: L/NP: 56.5 (+0.5) ALP: 43.5 (-0.5) Essential Primaries: L/NP: 45 ALP: 34 (-1) GRN: 11 Other/Independent: 9 (+1)...

I'm not so sure. Turnbull is a fair bit more popular out there than Abbott ever was. Wouldn't be surprised if the next Newspoll has it at 52 or 53. Shorten might want to watch his back soon enough.

Bit of variation then from Newspoll 50/50 to Morgan 56/44. Hard to get a good read on things.

Well, well, well. Fairfax/Ipsos moving closer to Morgan now. If Essential moves this week again then that Newspoll 50/50 looks a bit awkward, especially for those that like to claim that Newspoll is biased towards the Coalition.

We already have an Animal Justice Party too.

Surprised he didn't put his name in his party. Quite the trend these days.

For the record we are heading for the warmest year on measured record by quite some margin. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/somewhat-very-extremely-how-likely-it-2015-will-be-new-warmest-year Yes, there are hiatus decades for global temperatures (which are somewhat...

I think you'd find that most Australians don't follow politics all that closely (especially not to the policy level). I don't see the Liberty Alliance suddenly receiving a surge of votes in 2016.

If Turnbull wins in 2016 expect to see more policy differences. Maybe if Turnbull wins an election the conservatives will warm to him.

Proof will be in 2016. Can't see the Liberal base deserting the party, there's a reason why they're the base.

Thursday I believe.

Waiting to see whether Morgan is replicated in Newspoll/Essential. Thought Newspoll might already be out by now.

Latest Essential poll is out Two-party preferred Coalition: 52 (+3) ALP: 48 (-3) Primaries Liberal: 44 (+4) ALP: 35 (-2) Green: 11 (steady) PUP: 2 (steady) Other/independent: 9 (steady) Several other questions also asked in the full report...

Morgan does tend to move around a bit. Newspoll will be the one to watch, will be out later today/tomorrow. Update: Newspoll says 51-49. Same as the Galaxy poll and similar to the 50/50 ReachTEL one. Morgan appears to be the outlier again.

Overall swing is at 6.1%, which is about what Don Randall's personal vote was at.

This. Might have done some back room deals and will press on with the plebiscite idea.