How will the 2016 Federal Election pan out?

[Hank Scorpion]

Question for those in the know - is what is being described in this article likely to have any appreciable effect on the election results?

http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-p...ter-barnaby-joyces-scalp-20160325-gnqzwr.html

The TL;DR version: the Preference Whisperer reckons the micro-parties will unite against Coalition and Greens MPs sitting in marginal seats (as well as Joyce and Dutton) with preference deals designed to unseat the incumbents.

Negligible effect.

Micro party voters are more independently-minded when it comes to How-To-Vote cards than Lib/Lab voters. Any change in preferences recommended by the micro party is unlikely to be followed strenuously.

I'd be surprised if it flipped a seat.

 

[volcboy]

Question for those in the know - is what is being described in this article likely to have any appreciable effect on the election results?

http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-p...ter-barnaby-joyces-scalp-20160325-gnqzwr.html

The TL;DR version: the Preference Whisperer reckons the micro-parties will unite against Coalition and Greens MPs sitting in marginal seats (as well as Joyce and Dutton) with preference deals designed to unseat the incumbents.

The effect will be negligable given the full preferential voting that occurs in the House of Reps (equivalent to below the line senate voting). The 'Preference Whisperer' is suffering from having his relevance removed.

 

[volcboy]

Given the right-wing of his party continues to white-ant (see this article on Eric Abetz), I can see a DD election being a bit of a disaster for Malcolm. I know the Coalition have a 19 seat majority, but that can evaporate very quickly in the current electoral environment.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Question for those in the know - is what is being described in this article likely to have any appreciable effect on the election results?

http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-p...ter-barnaby-joyces-scalp-20160325-gnqzwr.html

The TL;DR version: the Preference Whisperer reckons the micro-parties will unite against Coalition and Greens MPs sitting in marginal seats (as well as Joyce and Dutton) with preference deals designed to unseat the incumbents.

Might matter in the most marginal of marginals. Not overall though. They're called microparties for a reason.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

(see this article on Eric Abetz)

THE NEAREST PLANET outside our solar system potentially capable of supporting life is Gliese 581d, some 20 light-years away. During National Science Week in 2009, while the OzCar imbroglio was still making headlines, Abetz was invited to compose a message to be transmitted to the planet from the Canberra Deep Space Communication Complex. Labor's science minister, Kim Carr, had written: "Hello from Australia on the planet we call Earth. These messages express our people's dreams for the future. We want to share those dreams with you."

Abetz wrote: "The Coalition dreams that by the time you receive this message in 2029 Australia will be free of Labor debt. Sadly we're not holding our breath."

How petty

 

[Pessimistic]

Wed all be better off if the lot of them held their breath till 2019.

Lets hope any civilization takes the messages as more authentic considering a fukwit govt official contribited

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

Given the right-wing of his party continues to white-ant (see this article on Eric Abetz), I can see a DD election being a bit of a disaster for Malcolm. I know the Coalition have a 19 seat majority, but that can evaporate very quickly in the current electoral environment.

The funnest part of that article is how he bags his own party's ideas on employment. Hard to imagine how the Abbott Lovers online can square that circle:

LIFE AS A senior member of Tony Abbott's government had its tricky moments, Abetz confesses...he occasionally had to promote policies that he considered harsh and unworkable (making people under 30 wait six months for the dole; requiring job-seekers to apply for 40 jobs a month). But did he air his grievances outside the Cabinet room? No. "Unlike certain others..."

 

[Jascave]

I think the Coalition will retain power with a reduced majority in the House of Representatives. Malcolm Turnbull however will have something only John Howard and Malcolm Fraser before him has done, and that is control of the Senate. Bronwyn Bishop and Tony Abbott will both lose their seats.


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[Ratts of Tobruk]

I think the Coalition will retain power with a reduced majority in the House of Representatives. Malcolm Turnbull however will have something only John Howard and Malcolm Fraser before him has done, and that is control of the Senate. Bronwyn Bishop and Tony Abbott will both lose their seats.

I don't think any of that is going to happen, and it's hard to imagine the scenario in which you think it might...?

 

[Gough]

No way will the Libs get control of the Senate, memories of the 2014 budget will linger for a long time.

 

[Gough]

Interesting that loans for rental properties were up 6% last month. Considering the ALP's negative gearing policy announcement, could this be the market factoring in a change of government?

 

[JackOutback]

No way will the Libs get control of the Senate, memories of the 2014 budget will linger for a long time.

I wouldn't rule it out, given the changes to Senate voting rules, but they should fall just short.

Still think the Libs will retain with a reduced majority, Shorten just isn't cutting through enough, though if Turnbull keeps throwing up thought bubbles like state income taxes and getting slapped down, then he may lose his authority with the electorate.

If Shorten could find a clear, concise message that gets through, he is an outside chance.

 

[Jascave]

Would love to see the look on Peta Credlin's face on election night when the Sky News computer-as well as Antony Green on the ABC-predict that Tony Abbott has lost his seat. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kevin Andrews and Browyn Bishop fall by the wayside as well on election night.

What swing is needed by Labor for a change of government?


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[yibbida]

What swing is needed by Labor for a change of government?
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It depends on how you look at it.

There is a lot of marginal seats that won't need a very big swing for them to change from Libs/Nats to Labor. (for example if there is a greater than 4% swing across all electorates there will be 20 seats that change from Coalition to Labor (assuming the Nats take a couple back off the Liberal Party)

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/11/2013-federal-post-election-pendulum.html

 

[Gough]

Morrison is talking like the Liberal Party have actually done something about the deficit. All this crap about running the national economy is like running a household is returning too, "Live within our means", they are spending more than the ALP did in office anyway ffs.

 

[pjcrows]

"Live within our means" was Hockey's line to sell the 2014 budget. That went well.

 

[JackOutback]

Morrison is talking like the Liberal Party have actually done something about the deficit. All this crap about running the national economy is like running a household is returning too, "Live within our means", they are spending more than the ALP did in office anyway ffs.

Morrison is looking more and more like satire every day. This morning he was bragging about how Turnbull had called the states' bluff and how they could no longer expect Commonwealth funding because they knocked back Turnbull's income tax thought bubble. Because apparently if you don't accept one inane, poorly conceived and poorly explained idea, all reasonable options must be exhausted.

 

[GOAUS!]

No way will the Libs get control of the Senate, memories of the 2014 budget will linger for a long time.

Might end up having Nick X as their main negotiating hurdle.

 

[Jascave]

Former minister Kevin Andrews has raised the prospect of a leadership challenge to Malcolm Turnbull in a media interview.

So now, not only does Turnbull has to keep an eye out on Tony Abbott, he also has to deal with Andrews as well.


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[Gough]

I've as much chance of leading the Liberal Party as Andrews does.

 

[GWBogan]

Former minister Kevin Andrews has raised the prospect of a leadership challenge to Malcolm Turnbull in a media interview.

That's a surefire way for the Liberals to lose an election, if that spud ever became the leader.

 

[JackOutback]

Former minister Kevin Andrews has raised the prospect of a leadership challenge to Malcolm Turnbull in a media interview.

So now, not only does Turnbull has to keep an eye out on Tony Abbott, he also has to deal with Andrews as well.


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No, he still only has to keep an eye out on Abbott. Andrews is an Abbott loyalist and this is just an attempt to destabilise Turnbull while keeping Abbott at arm's length from the drama. After saying he wouldn't do a Rudd, it seems he's borrowed his playbook.

 

[Jascave]

If Labor gets a) within 3-6 seats, b) a possible hung parliament, or c) even an unlikely win, you can be certain that there will be a leadership challenge from Tony Abbott against Malcolm Turnbull. The question is, if a leadership challenge did happen, who will Julie Bishop vote for?


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[JoseMourinho]

Liberals will lose if alltalk does not go into the election with tax reform unless Shorten's tax reform is crap.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

No, he still only has to keep an eye out on Abbott. Andrews is an Abbott loyalist and this is just an attempt to destabilise Turnbull while keeping Abbott at arm's length from the drama. After saying he wouldn't do a Rudd, it seems he's borrowed his playbook.

So Abbott to be the compromise(d) / (dis)unity candidate in a Turnbull v Andrews showdown?