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He did it in the granny ya nimrod for starters
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AFLW 2024 - Round 2 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
20 Disposals and a goal
- Thread starter Royce Hafey
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- #52
Thanks for all your suggestions. and to the other posters who've given names thanks as well. I was sincere when I said that I didn't want this to be a dick-measuring debate. Thankfully, despite the efforts of a few it's mainly been a decent discussion and I've learned a lot about players from teams like Fitzroy and North that I didn't follow as well as South Australian players. I seem to have missed a lot of Carlton players but then that's the Richmond nuffie in me. I'm guessing that there must be a few WA players that I've missed apart from Matera.
You were sincere, yet decided to throw a dick measure in at the end of your OP, yeah we believe you.
Pendlebury averages 24 disposals and 0.25 goals across his 4 Grand Finals. He bolstered that with zero goal assists as well. If you were going to be tied up and whipped, Pendlebury is the person you would want doing it. The tooth fairy is more damaging.
Cleansweep17
Premiership Player
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I’m referring to a season average. In 2011 he did it pre finals but his goalless finals series meant he averaged less than a goal for the whole season. I’m assuming the OPs list is post finals.
I thought it was strange mentioning Pendlebury in a thread regarding goals.
- Sep 3, 2019
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If i was into hardcore S&M id probably pick Pendles as a dream participant. The tooth fairy is a myth to Collingwood as hes not requiredPendlebury averages 24 disposals and 0.25 goals across his 4 Grand Finals. He bolstered that with zero goal assists as well. If you were going to be tied up and whipped, Pendlebury is the person you would want doing it. The tooth fairy is more damaging.
- Sep 3, 2019
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Were great. This is the middle aged crisis
In all seriousness, if you were to treat 20 disposals and 1 goal in footy as a benchmark, there are obvious drawbacks:
To build a model to get around the first 2 issues you might start by:
a) assigning points to goals and disposals. In a 20 + 1 model we are essentially saying 20 disposals = the value of 1 goal. So the inference is that 21 disposals + 0.95 goals, 22 disposals + 0.9 goals, 23 disposals + 0.85 goals and 30 disposals + 0.5 goals should be roughly of equal value to 20 + 1. And 10 disposals + 2 goals, 9 disposals + 2.05 goals and so on would be inferred by the 20 + 1 model to be of similar value.
In 2023 median disposals per game was around 728. 1/44th of that is 16.5, so this is the average amount of disposals a player gets. 20 disposals is 21% bove average.
The median amount of goals scored per game in 2023 was 23.8. 1/44th of this is 0.54 goals. 1 goal per game therefore is around 85% higher than the average amount of goals scored by a player per game.
However, 118 players averaged = to or >20 disposals in 2023. 105 players averaged = to or >1 goal. So in that respect at least the benchmark is fairly well balanced, with roughly similar amounts of players meeting either condition. 2022 was a similar story. So roughly 1/4 of the playing population averages 20+ disposals, and roughly 1/4 averages 1+ goals in the current era.
If we go back to 1977, roughly 41% of the playing population averaged 1 or more goals. But only 15% of the playing population averaged 20+ disposals. So when we look at either of these eras through the prism of the other era, we are getting a very distorted picture.
So,
b) It would maybe be better, though way too big a project, to try to find players who had seasons in the top 25% of goal kickers per game who were also in the top 25% of disposals per game. Ie, 300 players take the field each week, you need to be in the top 75 in the competition in both categories. If 400 take the field you need to be in the top 100 in both categories.
Then further so as not to disadvantage players dominating one side of the equation(eg disposals) and just missing on the other side, in this case goals, you have the sliding scale that says:
In 1977 240 players took the field each week. So the top 60 in both categories is what you need to meet. The 6th most disposals was 18.3 per match. The 60th most goals was around 1.3 per match. A goal was "worth" roughly 14 disposals. So 20 disposals & 1.2 goals was of roughly equal value to 18.3 disposals and 1.3 goals. 25 disposals + 0.96 goals would be of roughly equal value as well. 9.2 disposals + 2.6 goals also of roughly equal value.
So by these means we may be able to make more meaningful comparisons. As an aside, in 1977 Matthews was 3rd in the VFL for average goals per game, Bartlett was 14th. Bartlett was 1st for average disposals, Matthews was 3rd. With the greater specialisation of player roles these days, it would seem impossible for a player to achieve these sort of combined rankings. To demonstrate this, in Dustin Martin's most decorated season ever, 2017, he ranked 45th for average goals, and 10th for average disposals in the AFL. Mind you there are about 60% more players playing now so he was roughly in the top 12% for goals and top 3% for disposals.
But even if you were able to catalogue all the key players as above for easier and fairer comparison, there remains huge limitations:
In the end, this is why the player ratings are a much better(though still imperfect) guide. They take every recordable action of every player into account. And we can see both a player's objective rating and his ranking year on year.
- it favours players with a more even split between goals and disposals over players who were stronger in one of those areas
- there are difficulties in making comparisons due to the fact both scoring rates and disposal rates have fluctuated over time
- it also potentially favours low contest "converters" such as Jeremy Cameron
To build a model to get around the first 2 issues you might start by:
a) assigning points to goals and disposals. In a 20 + 1 model we are essentially saying 20 disposals = the value of 1 goal. So the inference is that 21 disposals + 0.95 goals, 22 disposals + 0.9 goals, 23 disposals + 0.85 goals and 30 disposals + 0.5 goals should be roughly of equal value to 20 + 1. And 10 disposals + 2 goals, 9 disposals + 2.05 goals and so on would be inferred by the 20 + 1 model to be of similar value.
In 2023 median disposals per game was around 728. 1/44th of that is 16.5, so this is the average amount of disposals a player gets. 20 disposals is 21% bove average.
The median amount of goals scored per game in 2023 was 23.8. 1/44th of this is 0.54 goals. 1 goal per game therefore is around 85% higher than the average amount of goals scored by a player per game.
However, 118 players averaged = to or >20 disposals in 2023. 105 players averaged = to or >1 goal. So in that respect at least the benchmark is fairly well balanced, with roughly similar amounts of players meeting either condition. 2022 was a similar story. So roughly 1/4 of the playing population averages 20+ disposals, and roughly 1/4 averages 1+ goals in the current era.
If we go back to 1977, roughly 41% of the playing population averaged 1 or more goals. But only 15% of the playing population averaged 20+ disposals. So when we look at either of these eras through the prism of the other era, we are getting a very distorted picture.
So,
b) It would maybe be better, though way too big a project, to try to find players who had seasons in the top 25% of goal kickers per game who were also in the top 25% of disposals per game. Ie, 300 players take the field each week, you need to be in the top 75 in the competition in both categories. If 400 take the field you need to be in the top 100 in both categories.
Then further so as not to disadvantage players dominating one side of the equation(eg disposals) and just missing on the other side, in this case goals, you have the sliding scale that says:
In 1977 240 players took the field each week. So the top 60 in both categories is what you need to meet. The 6th most disposals was 18.3 per match. The 60th most goals was around 1.3 per match. A goal was "worth" roughly 14 disposals. So 20 disposals & 1.2 goals was of roughly equal value to 18.3 disposals and 1.3 goals. 25 disposals + 0.96 goals would be of roughly equal value as well. 9.2 disposals + 2.6 goals also of roughly equal value.
So by these means we may be able to make more meaningful comparisons. As an aside, in 1977 Matthews was 3rd in the VFL for average goals per game, Bartlett was 14th. Bartlett was 1st for average disposals, Matthews was 3rd. With the greater specialisation of player roles these days, it would seem impossible for a player to achieve these sort of combined rankings. To demonstrate this, in Dustin Martin's most decorated season ever, 2017, he ranked 45th for average goals, and 10th for average disposals in the AFL. Mind you there are about 60% more players playing now so he was roughly in the top 12% for goals and top 3% for disposals.
But even if you were able to catalogue all the key players as above for easier and fairer comparison, there remains huge limitations:
- defensive aspects of the game are not taken any account of
- goal finishers are favoured over your Gryan Miers goal assist type players, where the finish and the assist must surely in reality be of equal value.
- all disposals are assumed to be equal where of course we know they are not.
- all goals are treated as equal where of course we know there is a huge difference between kicking a joe the goose goal basically any AFL player could kick on one hand, and kicking a goal from a contest you won on the other hand.
In the end, this is why the player ratings are a much better(though still imperfect) guide. They take every recordable action of every player into account. And we can see both a player's objective rating and his ranking year on year.
Whenever I see Collingwood fans with two dollar coins I always suspect the tooth fairy has paid a belated visit Pistol.
- Sep 3, 2019
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Wrong. Weve knocked over a vending machineWhenever I see Collingwood fans with two dollar coins I always suspect the tooth fairy has paid a belated visit Pistol.
Cleansweep17
Premiership Player
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Individually no, but it’s very hard to average both in a season. I believe only 3 people did in 2023. Trac, Dusty and Bolton.
20 and 1 shows that you can be an elite mid and elite fwd in the same game. Hence the names on the OPs list. After top 20 I don’t think there are anymore 20 and 1 career averages. It’s that difficult.
H00t
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20 and 1 is elite for neither. The best forwards average more and the best mids average more.
But thanks for pointing out why tigers supporters love to bring up 20 and 1 as some awesome pinnacle of achievement.
Does it though? Adding two fairly below average stats together does not make someone elite.
It is like those people on bigfooty who say "package up fringe player A and fringe player B and demand a top 10 pick". Adding two fringe players together does not mean clubs will want to pay a premium just because there are two of them.
I mean Buddy averaged 14.8 disposals and 3 goals per match over the course of his very long career. Yes he got 5.2 disposals lower than your criteria, but I would argue the extra 2 goals per game makes up for it and then some.
The disposals is not elite, but the goal kicking is, whereas 20 disposals and 1 goal is not elite in anything.
Exactly, have a look at the Bonts stats in 23, I know who i'd have in the midfield 1st.
CURVE
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He actually missed out in 2015, but only by 1 goal, he kicked 24 goals in 25 games. It would have been his 14th season averaging 20 and 1 and sitting all alone on top of the list.
Cleansweep17
Premiership Player
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It does because of “limited game-time”. The more things you add together to do in a game the harder it is to do. Eg “20 and 1 + 10 clearances” or “20 and 1 + 10 clearances + 15 contested possessions”.
I’m not saying it’s worth more than something else like buddy’s goals. But it is extremely hard to do and not many players have the skill set to do so hence the OPs list. Only like 20 players in the history of the game have a career averages of 20 and 1 and they are all some of the best mid/fwds.
I value mid/fwds the most out of any position as I believe they are the most complete footballers. There are many great mids that butcher the ball and many great fwds that can’t play mid. It’s very rare to be able to do both, this is what the 20 and 1 stats shows.
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The more niche you get with your stats the easier it is to highlight the player you want to highlight though. I am sure if I tried I could find stats that would make Gulden's 2023 season one of the top seasons of all time.
So how many players have averaged over 26 disposals, 550m gained, 0.8 goals per match, over 3.5 clearances and 6 inside 50's per match.
I am willing to bet not many beat that criteria, but Gulden does since I selectively picked the stats, so Gulden is the best player of all time based on his 2023 season.
Cleansweep17
Premiership Player
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Do you not agree with the premise that the more you do in a game the better it is? Players only have a set amount of time on field. So if a players splits their time 50/50 mid/fwd, they obviously aren’t going to kick the most goals or rack up the most disposals so are they never going to be elite?
It is the decathlon of footy though. Shows you are best at combining two key performance indicators.
Of players playing 10+ games in 2023, Dusty was 53rd for disposals (around 3rd best in an average team) and 61st for goals scored, around 4th best in an average team. The reason it is noteworthy is because the two performance indicators are so mutually exclusive that only 3 players in the whole AFL finished as high or higher in combination on both lists. Very few non-specialist forwards get 1 goal+ per game and very few specialist forwards get 20 disposals per game. By very few, 3 out of about 500 players to play 10 or more matches in 2023. All players just about are trying to get the ball and score goals, and all opponents are trying to stop them doing that, so it is not like they are obscure performance indicators.
But it would of course be worng to think only the 3 players who have got the 20 + 1 combination have played at the highest level of all AFL players.
It can be true that doing more with the ball is a good thing but your criteria of 20 disposals and 1 goal is still very arbitary.
For instance yes Bont only kicked 0.8 goals per game last year to Martin's 1.2, so Bont would not meet your criteria, but Bont had 250% more clearances than Martin in 2023, 350% more tackles, more disposals and more inside 50's too.
So Bontempelli does not meet your criteria even though he had a considerably better season than Martin, just because he didn't kick another 2 goals in the season.
Yep I think the real elite goal scoring mids should be getting 500 disposals and 40 goals in a season.
That is your Stevie Johnson, Robbie Gray and Alan Didak peak for a high half forward.
Narrowing to players who have had a 500/40 season gets you into the real pointy end, the elite of the elite.
Cleansweep17
Premiership Player
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Goals and disposals are the main statistics that are talked about in AFL. Hence why people say he went “X” and “X” in a game. Also “20 and 1” are pretty logical and round numbers to use. Don’t think anybody is going to go around saying “23.4 and 0.85” is where it’s at.
And like I said before you don’t have to go 20 and 1 to have a great season.
Goal kicking mids are gold
