20 Disposals and a goal

[Cleansweep17]

I got those names by moving away from the 20 and 1 criteria.

Some of those names are had vastly better years than the others.

Also worth noting between 20 and 1 and the names I came up with 3 of the 7 play for 1 team. Which suggests game plan comes into it a lot.

Missing from these lists are a vast majority of very good players this year.

It’s nice as a statistic but useless to compare players.

I don’t think you got my point. If for example Bont did more forward minutes his disposals would drop and goals would increase. He then would then have around 20/25 and 1 figure.

Each to their own but I think 20 and 1 is a great measure to show how elite a mid/fwd is. I bet everybody here knew Dusty, GAJ, KB and Lethal would be at the top of the list before even looking at the stats. They can do it all really and imo the most complete types of footballers.

 

[RUNVS]

I have seen the assisted metres gained stat quoted once by media or a Champion Data rep. So its clearly one of those special stats that they sell to clubs but hide from the public. It would elevate the conversation a lot but they really seem reluctant to do so except through their own special formulas

It pisses me off quite a bit that we don't have access to those stats. I mean the AFL own Champion Data, so there is no reason not to give us those stats too. It would elevate the conversation a lot.

 

[H00t]

I don’t think you got my point. If for example Bont did more forward minutes his disposals would drop and goals would increase. He then would then have around 20/25 and 1 figure.

Each to their own but I think 20 and 1 is a great measure to show how elite a mid/fwd is. I bet everybody here knew Dusty, GAJ, KB and Lethal would be at the top of the list before even looking at the stats. They can do it all really and imo the most complete types of footballers.

That’s the thing though, Bont is an elite mid so he isn’t going to spend that much time forward to get it.

It’s someone who plays a bit forward and a bit mid. If the best players are reaching 20 and 1 they are going well past it in one category.

It’s like Moore reaching it last year or Bolton doing it this year it doesn’t elevate them as players.

 

[Noidnadroj]

20 and 1 is elite for neither. The best forwards average more and the best mids average more.

But thanks for pointing out why tigers supporters love to bring up 20 and 1 as some awesome pinnacle of achievement.

Averaging 38 with the bat in cricket and averaging 28 with the ball is not elite for either of those either. If one player does both then they’re an all-time great all-rounder.

I can’t believe people struggle so much to grasp the concept that winning plenty of the ball AND averaging a goal a game is very difficult to do, particularly in modern footy with goals so hard to come by.

20 & 1 are just nice ‘round’ numbers - choose 21 and 0.9 if you want. A ‘triple / double’ in basketball is double figures in points / assists / rebounds. Nobody then says … ‘yeah, well why not make it 9 and not double figures and call
it a ‘triple & 9’ …. what’s the difference?’

Or nobody argues with ‘50’ as a nominal number for an Uber elite test batting average. Or 0.300 as a baseball batting average. Doesn’t mean someone on 0.298 can’t be recognised like
Someone on 0.300 … numbers for analysis in sport have to be set somewhere, and 20 & 1 makes a lot more sense than 21 and 0.9.

Averaging 32+ disposals is hard to do also. Averaging 3.5 goals a game is hard to do. Averaging 8 clearances is hard to do. Averaging 10 intercepts is hard to do.

So it’s no big deal. Averaging 20+ and 1+ across
a season in modern footy is very hard to do. Anyone who does it has a rare ability to find the ball regularly and kick goals. You can decide that’s not relevant to anything and that’s fine. I’d argue any coach would love any player who finds the ball AND kicks goals, so to me it’s a sign of a quality player and/or a player who has had an excellent season.



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[RUNVS]

This is my problem with Fantasy points. These are the best "general forwards" in the AFL according to AFL.com.au.

The problem as you can guess is that somehow scoring over twice as many goals per match Greene is behind Martin, and I have no idea how guys like Macrae and Flanders are even on the board given how low their goal scoring is, they are clearly not being played forward.

The top "General Forwards" should be the ones who score the most goals, but the fact Greene is so far down shows there are flaws with the fantasy scoring system.

No one would say Greene is the 7th best General Forward in the game, or the 79th best player overall.

 

[RUNVS]

Though the "ratings points" seem to be a slightly better reflection, but still no where near perfect.

 

[Cleansweep17]

That’s the thing though, Bont is an elite mid so he isn’t going to spend that much time forward to get it.

It’s someone who plays a bit forward and a bit mid. If the best players are reaching 20 and 1 they are going well past it in one category.

It’s like Moore reaching it last year or Bolton doing it this year it doesn’t elevate them as players.

That’s right Bont is an elite mid. They don’t play him fwd as much because he can’t be an elite forward like the others I mentioned on this list. He has one less string in his bow so to speak. That’s why 20 and 1 is impressive, it’s incredibly difficult to be an elite mid with elite goal kicking abilities.

 

[RUNVS]

That’s right Bont is an elite mid. They don’t play him fwd as much because he can’t be an elite forward like the others I mentioned on this list. He has one less string in his bow so to speak. That’s why 20 and 1 is impressive, it’s incredibly difficult to be an elite mid with elite goal kicking abilities.

Martin can't be an elite mid though as he does not have the tank for it. It is why he spends a not insignificant time closer to the forward line.

 

[Pistol Night]

That’s right Bont is an elite mid. They don’t play him fwd as much because he can’t be an elite forward like the others I mentioned on this list. He has one less string in his bow so to speak. That’s why 20 and 1 is impressive, it’s incredibly difficult to be an elite mid with elite goal kicking abilities.

Lethal would of got dropped for putting up a 20 and 1 game

 

[Noidnadroj]

Player Ratings are awful and not the answer.

Your first idea loosely related about scaling goal/disposal ratios up or down at least made sense to a degree. It would still heavily favour hybrids over pure mids or forwards.

A midfielder who spends 40-50% time forward will always be favoured in these comparisons.

The really great midfield seasons usually contain a decent amount of goals.

Even Selwood who wasn’t a renowned goal-kicker went 24.6 / 1.23 in 2013 when receiving 27 Brownlow votes. 2013 was also easily his best coaches votes season with 94 votes.

Judd’s Brownlow season of 2004 he went 21.8 / 1.0. He did the combo 3 other times and had other great seasons without the ‘combo’, but it was certainly one of his greatest seasons.

Diesels 2 x seasons as a Cat in 1984 and 85 he averaged 26 and 31, but kicked just 4 and 6 goals. In 1986 he went 28.8 / 1.2 and won the Brownlow.

Swan’s first year averaging 20/1 was 2011 when he averaged 31.7 / 1.3 … he won the Brownlow. He did it three times in his career.

Cotchin’s best ever goal tally average was 0.9.. the year he won the Brownlow and won the coaches award.

Pendles has done it once… guess which year? 2011, which is widely regarded as one of his best, if not the best. Also the year he got the most Brownlow votes of his career with 24.

The Norm Smith is very regularly won by midfielders who kick goals - Martin x 3, Smith, Petracca, Buckley, Williams, Hird…. the list goes on and on ….

So midfielders can have great seasons without averaging a goal a game - has happened a gazillion times.

But I would argue over history the ‘majority’ of the truly great midfielders have been fairly prolific goal kickers. Not always from the midfield, but an ability to find the big sticks is what sets apart some excellent mids from some of the absolute superstars across the era’s.

And when midfielders who are not prolific goal kickers ‘spike’ great goal kicking seasons, there’s no doubt it elevates the quality of that season.


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[Cleansweep17]

View attachment 1899083

This is my problem with Fantasy points. These are the best "general forwards" in the AFL according to AFL.com.au.

The problem as you can guess is that somehow scoring over twice as many goals per match Greene is behind Martin, and I have no idea how guys like Macrae and Flanders are even on the board given how low their goal scoring is, they are clearly not being played forward.

The top "General Forwards" should be the ones who score the most goals, but the fact Greene is so far down shows there are flaws with the fantasy scoring system.

No one would say Greene is the 7th best General Forward in the game, or the 79th best player overall.

General forwards are just those hybrids players that play in the forward half of the ground. Minutes between midfield and forward time vary which is why you get weird rankings. Those who play more mid generally get more fantasy points due to getting more of the ball. Thus why Dusty was higher rated than Greene.

It’s like this with pretty much all rating systems and actually Brownlow votes. Not sure why but subconsciously people value getting more of the ball even though we all say we don’t.

 

[RUNVS]

General forwards are just those hybrids players that play in the forward half of the ground. Minutes between midfield and forward time vary which is why you get weird rankings. Those who play more mid generally get more fantasy points due to getting more of the ball. Thus why Dusty was higher rated than Greene.

It’s like this with pretty much all rating systems and actually Brownlow votes. Not sure why but subconsciously people value getting more of the ball even though we all say we don’t.

I really think though that in these fantasy point systems none of them put enough weight on goals kicked. It is crazy a key forward can kick 5 or more goals and yet get beaten in fantasy points by a mid with 30 disposals.

Also I just picked the first game of the season where I saw a forward kicked 5 or more goals here



Larkey kicked 6 goals, 6 goals. He almost kicked half of North's total points in this game and yet according to Supercoach points he was the not even in the top 5 of best North players on the field.

 

[H00t]

That’s right Bont is an elite mid. They don’t play him fwd as much because he can’t be an elite forward like the others I mentioned on this list. He has one less string in his bow so to speak. That’s why 20 and 1 is impressive, it’s incredibly difficult to be an elite mid with elite goal kicking abilities.

This is the point averaging 20 or 1 goal isn’t elite. Put them together and it’s a rare occurrence but doesn’t make a player elite.

Bont’s done it 4 times and missed out this year by 4 goals and 2 goals another year. He’s not suddenly becoming an elite goalkicker one year then becoming an average forward the next.

He’s one of the best players in the game and had a better year than any player that went 20 and 1. And a far better year than the other two beside Petracca.

You can appreciate the achievement but it doesn’t elevate one’s game.

 

[H00t]

General forwards are just those hybrids players that play in the forward half of the ground. Minutes between midfield and forward time vary which is why you get weird rankings. Those who play more mid generally get more fantasy points due to getting more of the ball. Thus why Dusty was higher rated than Greene.

It’s like this with pretty much all rating systems and actually Brownlow votes. Not sure why but subconsciously people value getting more of the ball even though we all say we don’t.

That’s how fantasy points work… the busier you are the more points you get.

As for awards like the Brownlow a midfielder is always in the game and just has to play well themselves. A forward needs up the ground to play well and to be on to get votes. More points of failure, which has made it especially hard since Brownlow votes have become more concentrated.

 

[Noidnadroj]

If you play in the midfield and you ARENT incredibly slow, you have SOME game sense, and you ARENT being kind of tagged, you are going to get the ball a fair bit. That’s the bottom line.

It’s a stat like saying ‘such and such a rugby league half back had 500 kicking metres’ well yeah of course he f**king did. He handles the ball more than any player on the field aside from the dummy half and his job is to kick it on the last tackle so big deal.

WHERE did those kicks go? Did they find the turf? Did they turn the fullback around? Did they give his chasers time to get to the other end of the field?

The decisions made with the possessions, even down to who he gives them to: whether they are contested or not, are they a little give to a good user or a bad ball user, is it someone quick or someone who’s about to get picked off. You might be able to hit a teammate on the chest with a handball 20 metres away but if he’s going to get nailed, or f**k up his kick it’s pretty pointless so maybe you’re better off dumping it 50m down the line yourself. There are a million variables in what a ‘disposal’ means.

Of course, but there are 2 things that remain the most critical to being a quality player and winning games of football… getting the ball and putting it through the big sticks. You can’t dispose of it well if you can’t get it. And goals are never more valuable than in modern footy.

Let’s go from top down for total disposals for 2023… tell me when you reach a ‘dud’ player:

Coniglio
Green
Petracca
Neale
Sinclair
Butters
Naicos
Serong
Brayshaw
Taranto
B Crouch
Jaicos
Mitchell
Whitfield
Rozee
Gulden
Laird
Bont
Merrett
Ash
Dawson
Sheezel
Kelly
Anderson
Viney
Worpel
Cripps
J Kelly
Docherty
Houston
Dunkley
Acres
Libba

I won’t go on ….

I’d suggest the 3 x ‘worst’ from that list are B Crouch, Worpel and Acres … all with arguably career best seasons in 2023.

So there are very very very few players who are getting lots of touches who aren’t playing excellent football. And Crouch kicked 8 goals, and Worpel and Acres kicked 10. So they’re ejected from the 20/1 discussion.

So of course there’s lots that goes into a disposal … but when viewed in totality, as per the list above for 2023, it’s pretty clearly a good way to begin analysing the best mids of the season. Add in a goal per game and it’s really elevating anyone who achieves it.

Doesn’t mean someone can’t average 24 / 0.3 and not have had an excellent season … they can and many did.

But the thing that every mid/forward/flanker is trying to do basically every minute of every game is get the ball and when given an opportunity kick a goal. So players who do both to a reasonable level is a pretty good starting point to having a quality season / career.


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[H00t]

Averaging 38 with the bat in cricket and averaging 28 with the ball is not elite for either of those either. If one player does both then they’re an all-time great all-rounder.

I can’t believe people struggle so much to grasp the concept that winning plenty of the ball AND averaging a goal a game is very difficult to do, particularly in modern footy with goals so hard to come by.

20 & 1 are just nice ‘round’ numbers - choose 21 and 0.9 if you want. A ‘triple / double’ in basketball is double figures in points / assists / rebounds. Nobody then says … ‘yeah, well why not make it 9 and not double figures and call
it a ‘triple & 9’ …. what’s the difference?’

Or nobody argues with ‘50’ as a nominal number for an Uber elite test batting average. Or 0.300 as a baseball batting average. Doesn’t mean someone on 0.298 can’t be recognised like
Someone on 0.300 … numbers for analysis in sport have to be set somewhere, and 20 & 1 makes a lot more sense than 21 and 0.9.

Averaging 32+ disposals is hard to do also. Averaging 3.5 goals a game is hard to do. Averaging 8 clearances is hard to do. Averaging 10 intercepts is hard to do.

So it’s no big deal. Averaging 20+ and 1+ across
a season in modern footy is very hard to do. Anyone who does it has a rare ability to find the ball regularly and kick goals. You can decide that’s not relevant to anything and that’s fine. I’d argue any coach would love any player who finds the ball AND kicks goals, so to me it’s a sign of a quality player and/or a player who has had an excellent season.



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It’s rare to do. Especially with the way the games has gone. The numbers show that. It’s the leap to labelling the players who do it elite that doesn’t quite gel with me.

We can see a number of elite players who get 20 and 1 but a lot of those who do get it are a rung or two down on the best players. While also having a lot of elite players not qualifying.

It’s cool stat but doesn’t elevate or lower any player depending on whether they have or have not achieved it and how many times they did.

 

[Noidnadroj]

This is the point averaging 20 or 1 goal isn’t elite. Put them together and it’s a rare occurrence but doesn’t make a player elite.

Bont’s done it 4 times and missed out this year by 4 goals and 2 goals another year. He’s not suddenly becoming an elite goalkicker one year then becoming an average forward the next.

He’s one of the best players in the game and had a better year than any player that went 20 and 1. And a far better year than the other two beside Petracca.

You can appreciate the achievement but it doesn’t elevate one’s game.

It’s just a simple metric to appreciate a player who has got a decent amount of the pill and kicked a decent amount of goals in a season - nothing more, nothing less. There are great players who went under 20 and over 1, and other great players who went over 20 and under 1.

It we say ‘only 3 x players averaged 3+ goals per game in 2023, proving it’s very hard to do and a sign of a great goal kicking season’… we don’t then throw a hissy fit because Toby Greene averaged 2.8.

They are not mutually exclusive… you can have a great goal kicking season averaging less than 3.0 as Greene got a lot more of the ball than Walker, Curnow and Larkey…. but 3+ is just the nominal marker you might choose to analyse.

If you say ‘only 1 x player averaged 17+ and 2.8+ in 2023 and that was Toby Greene’, then this is absolutely noteworthy and a sign of an elite season. Just as averaging 30 and 0.9 is, even though you’re not in the 20/1 club. Who cares? 20/1 is one of a million stats to analyse, so if you don’t like it as Martin has done it a lot then focus on the other 999,999.


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[doppleganger]

Even those stats heavily favour midfielders. I think more points need to be given for goals and goal assists for forwards, and more points need to be given for winning one on one contests for defenders.

I remember sometimes Buddy would kick a bag for the Swans, be clearly the best player for the Swans and yet I looked at the supercoach points and saw statistically he was not the best player at the Swans and instead some midfielder who got 30+ touches was.

Like most rankings, they end up just putting some additional qualifiers on basic disposals.

And yes, just like Buddy, in the 2023 GF, Bobby Hill was the star forward that day. Most goals on the ground, most score involvements.

But he wasn't busy enough, and couldnt even make top 10 according to player ratings.

 

[CharacterFirst]

Billy Goggin played half his career before all these stats.

But in the second half of his career averaged:

25.63​

1.13​

 

[Cleansweep17]

It’s rare to do. Especially with the way the games has gone. The numbers show that. It’s the leap to labelling the players who do it elite that doesn’t quite gel with me.

We can see a number of elite players who get 20 and 1 but a lot of those who do get it are a rung or two down on the best players. While also having a lot of elite players not qualifying.

It’s cool stat but doesn’t elevate or lower any player depending on whether they have or have not achieved it and how many times they did.

Only 3 people got it last year though Trac Dusty and Bolton. I think it’s fair to say anybody who gets 20 and 1 are amongst the best players of the comp and not several rungs below.

 

[Cleansweep17]

Lethal would of got dropped for putting up a 20 and 1 game

Of course he played in an area where defenders who were 10m off their man were considered good. I don’t think they knew what defending was.

Can people really not understand stats back then are not equivalent to today. Like seriously.

 

[Mofra]

Of course he played in an area where defenders who were 10m off their man were considered good. I don’t think they knew what defending was.

100% arse-backwards.

Lethal played in an era of no zones, no chopping the arms rule, pure man on man defence and sometimes a spare behind the ball (no 6-6-6 rule).

 

[Cleansweep17]

100% arse-backwards.

Lethal played in an era of no zones, no chopping the arms rule, pure man on man defence and sometimes a spare behind the ball (no 6-6-6 rule).

Exactly man on man defence not against team defence.

And those rules were made to increasing scoring as it’s drying up too much.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Here is my relatively simple formula to divine who the best attacking forwards were in 2023.

Disposals x Contested possession % x goals + assists = your score.

Working through the top 20 forwards according to player ratings, and a few other notables, this is how they look - I have placed the most notable scoring mids into the table where their scores would indicate they fit in. I probably missed some, will take requests. But I think this gives a good idea of who the best score impact guys are amongst the high ball betters and who the best ball getters are amongst the high score impact players:



1. T Greene 30.3

C Petracca 29.13

2. C Curnow 26.19
3. T Walker 26.17

M Bontempelli 23.3

4. D Martin 20.9

P Dangerfield 20.49

5. I Rankine 20.46
6. S Bolton 20.1
7. J Daniher 19.5
8. A Naughton 19.2

L Uniacke 19.1

T Kelly 18.7

9. T Hawkins 18.7

C Serong 17.28

J DeGoey 17.23

10. T Papley 16.95
11. B Daniels 16.0


Tarryn 15.92

12. I Heeney 15.9

Hubert McLuggage 15.8

13. K Langford 15.67

N Daicos 15.25

14. J Cameron 14.89

P Cripps 14.84

E Gulden 14.83

15. M Lewis 14.68

T Taranto 14.00

16. B Keays 13.97
17. N Larkey 13.93

T Green 13.48

T Adams 13.26

18. Z Bailey 13.14
19. C Cameron 13.1
20. J Lukosius 12.9
21. M Owens 12.13

* There may be a few that would have made the bottom reaches of this list if I went through them all but confident I have captured the top 15 or so correctly.

 

[RUNVS]

Here is my relatively simple formula to divine who the best attacking forwards were in 2023.

Disposals x Contested possession % x goals + assists = your score.

Disposals don't matter. Needs to be metres gained.

Or if you prefer metres gained divided by disposals to see how much damage each player does each time they dispose of the ball.

Also goals and assists is not something you can use to judge a defenders game.