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Re: 2009 AFL Ladder Prediction
I am amending this this after basically everything of significance ended in 2008 (i.e. drafts / lists lodgements / etc.)
1. Geelong - I'd be silly to pick them elsewhereHas happened before.
2. Port Adelaide - 2008 was a down year without much cause.... Don't underestimate Josh Carr - (if & ) when he comes back to Port, expect Choco to make the best use of him. Chad Cornes was injured and Tredrea was rested in quite a few games. Add that to Travis Boak / Steven Salopek / Shaun Burgoyne / # 4 pick, and you have the biggest upset of 2009 staring on your faces. It is also worth noting most of the games lost were due to fade outs.
3. Bulldogs - Status Quo
4. Hawthorn – Although they are primed for a fall just on account of a hangover & loss of croad for first half.
5. Adelaide - Porplyzia and others should keep Adelaide in contention if they remain fit. Their age old problem has just been go all out for NAB cup – which is silly considering the past.
6. Carlton - I know some ppl will say Carlton would be higher, but I am still not certain of improvement in Carlton's backline. Expect some big names to have downers.
7. North Melbourne - I tossed between North /Sydney / Carlton for this one. Laidley is crafty and terribly underestimated. You have to remember also that 2008 was the last year of Gold Coast for them. Expect them to improve (yet stay roundabouts in top 8) despite the stupid things said & done during the trade season.
8. Sydney - I've got Sydney in top 8, but only just because of Barry Hall & Paul Roos. They depend a lot on being super fit – let’s see how their injury issues go with their aging stars.
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9. Richmond - I have to change my predictions due to addition of Ben Cousins – however much Richmond improves – I still expect them to make the 9th spot though. The only caveat is how they play against Sydney, North & St Kilda. I reckon they are the weak sides for 2009 – and depending on the results Richmond can sneak in to the 6th – 8th spot.
10. St Kilda - I shake my head and put St Kilda here. Loss of Harvey should ensure a position lower than top 8.
11. Brisbane Lions - First year new coach - hard to see them making the top 8.
12. West Coast - Are away from being back in the top 8 by one good midfielder and one good forward. Will be in contention in 2010. (now even more so with Naitanui & Swift coming along).
13. Fremantle - Good players, bad coaching, terrible current culture. However, 2009 will be a bellwether for 2010 form for them. If they finish strongly, they might be in contention for top 8 in 2010.
14. Essendon - To be honest, I like Matthew Knights. I hope I am proven wrong, but it appears Essendon will be doing a Hawthorn trajectory.
15. Collingwood Another shaky performer. Let's see how Cloke and Rocca go and Collingwood's midfield without Burns. I think this is Malthouse’s last year.
16. Melbourne - Dean Bailey has done little to inspire confidence. Keeping Brad Green was a mistake. It would hve made more sense had they kept Travis Johnstone around as well. But given his departure, they should have got rid of Brad Green as well and gone for a full rebuild. But oh well, Brad Green will retire a good servant of Melbourne.
I am amending this this after basically everything of significance ended in 2008 (i.e. drafts / lists lodgements / etc.)
1. Geelong - I'd be silly to pick them elsewhereHas happened before.
2. Port Adelaide - 2008 was a down year without much cause.... Don't underestimate Josh Carr - (if & ) when he comes back to Port, expect Choco to make the best use of him. Chad Cornes was injured and Tredrea was rested in quite a few games. Add that to Travis Boak / Steven Salopek / Shaun Burgoyne / # 4 pick, and you have the biggest upset of 2009 staring on your faces. It is also worth noting most of the games lost were due to fade outs.
3. Bulldogs - Status Quo
4. Hawthorn – Although they are primed for a fall just on account of a hangover & loss of croad for first half.
5. Adelaide - Porplyzia and others should keep Adelaide in contention if they remain fit. Their age old problem has just been go all out for NAB cup – which is silly considering the past.
6. Carlton - I know some ppl will say Carlton would be higher, but I am still not certain of improvement in Carlton's backline. Expect some big names to have downers.
7. North Melbourne - I tossed between North /Sydney / Carlton for this one. Laidley is crafty and terribly underestimated. You have to remember also that 2008 was the last year of Gold Coast for them. Expect them to improve (yet stay roundabouts in top 8) despite the stupid things said & done during the trade season.
8. Sydney - I've got Sydney in top 8, but only just because of Barry Hall & Paul Roos. They depend a lot on being super fit – let’s see how their injury issues go with their aging stars.
---------------
9. Richmond - I have to change my predictions due to addition of Ben Cousins – however much Richmond improves – I still expect them to make the 9th spot though. The only caveat is how they play against Sydney, North & St Kilda. I reckon they are the weak sides for 2009 – and depending on the results Richmond can sneak in to the 6th – 8th spot.
10. St Kilda - I shake my head and put St Kilda here. Loss of Harvey should ensure a position lower than top 8.
11. Brisbane Lions - First year new coach - hard to see them making the top 8.
12. West Coast - Are away from being back in the top 8 by one good midfielder and one good forward. Will be in contention in 2010. (now even more so with Naitanui & Swift coming along).
13. Fremantle - Good players, bad coaching, terrible current culture. However, 2009 will be a bellwether for 2010 form for them. If they finish strongly, they might be in contention for top 8 in 2010.
14. Essendon - To be honest, I like Matthew Knights. I hope I am proven wrong, but it appears Essendon will be doing a Hawthorn trajectory.
15. Collingwood Another shaky performer. Let's see how Cloke and Rocca go and Collingwood's midfield without Burns. I think this is Malthouse’s last year.
16. Melbourne - Dean Bailey has done little to inspire confidence. Keeping Brad Green was a mistake. It would hve made more sense had they kept Travis Johnstone around as well. But given his departure, they should have got rid of Brad Green as well and gone for a full rebuild. But oh well, Brad Green will retire a good servant of Melbourne.