Last season was one of the most uneven AFL seasons for a while, with three teams particularly dominant. I'm tipping those same three teams to dominate in 2009 also. Port Adelaide will be the big improvers and could be a dark horse in the finals. Sydney and Adelaide are set to slide. Fremantle and Melbourne will fight it out for the wooden spoon. There will be quite some congestion for a finals place, but I'm tipping St. Kilda and Brisbane to sneak in. I'm tipping Geelong to finish on top of the home-and-away, but I believe Hawthorn will once again better them in the finals and win back-to-back premierships.
1. Geelong
2. Hawthorn
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Collingwood
5. Port Adelaide
6. Richmond
7. Brisbane Lions
8. St. Kilda
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9. Carlton
10. North Melbourne
11. West Coast Eagles
12. Sydney
13. Adelaide
14. Essendon
15. Fremantle
16. Melbourne
(1st) Geelong - Still the powerhouse of the AFL, Geelong still has the best defence and the best midfield in the league, as well as plenty of depth in their playing squad. Steve Johnson and Matthew Stokes are two of the cleverest forwards around and will get plenty of supply from the likes of Ablett, Bartel, Ling etc. However, their big man division is not elite and unless they can find a big forward to kick sixty goals or more, then I believe Geelong is very beatable in the finals.
(2nd) Hawthorn - Quite a few pundits think Hawthorn may have won the 2008 flag a little ahead of schedule. The tactical trendsetters in 2008 also, the question is whether this relatively young squad can remain focussed in 2009. They're the premiers, so they will have a target on their backs like never before, and fifteen other teams will be trying to emulate some of their tactics as well as work out ways to beat their tactics. It'll be a huge test, but with such depth and quality in their squad, I think they're up to it. And unlike their main rivals, Geelong and the Bulldogs, the Hawks have two exceptional big forward targets.
(3rd) Western Bulldogs - Made leaps and bounds in 2008 and I believe they're fully set to challenge for the premiership in 2009. Brownlow Medallist Adam Cooney heads a group of quality midfielders, their defence and ruck division are solid, and they have some very clever forwards capable of kicking plenty of goals. With a good blend of experience combined with some rapidly improving quality youngsters, the Dogs will win plenty of games in 2009 and could be a dark horse in the finals.
(4th) Collingwood - The Magpies still have a very young list, but these youngsters are very, very good. They're highly disciplined and extremely well-coached. There's depth in the playing list also. The defence is solid, the emerging ruck division capable and they have some very clever forwards capable of kicking plenty of goals. Look for full forward John Anthony to have a big year. The big question remains midfield quality and whether the Magpies can win enough of the hard ball to compete with Hawthorn, Geelong and the Dogs. Helped by yet another favourable draw, Collingwood will be up there for sure, but they're not premiership material - yet.
(5th) Port Adelaide - After the season from hell in 2008, I'm tipping the Power to rebound quite strongly in 2009. After making the grand final in 2007, Port underachieved last season, and with players back healthy and a more favourable draw in 2009, Port should return to finals action. Daniel Motlop emerged as a real star last season, and with Tredrea, Ebert, Gray and Justin Westhoff, the Power have a potent forward line. It'll be interesting to see where Chad Cornes is used this season. But when fully fit, he's an elite player.
(6th) Richmond - After a much improved 2008, coach Terry Wallace has the Tigers on track for further improvement this season. Ben Cousins is a welcome addition to an emerging midfield. With a nice blend of experience, youth and certainly speed, the Tigers are good enough to play finals this season, although much may depend on the ability of their young talls Riewoldt, Hughes and Schultz to stand up and kick some goals.
(7th) Brisbane Lions - Rejuvenated by club legend and now new coach Michael Voss, the Lions have the capabiility to turn around a lot of close losses last season and return to finals action in 2009. With two gun tall forwards, a gun ruck division, an experienced midfield, and some quality big-bodied youngsters continuing their improvement, the Lions can make an impact. Exactly how far they go may depend on finding a crumbing forward to complement power forwards Bradshaw and Brown.
(8th) St. Kilda - After disappointing for a fair amount of last season, the Saints excelled in the second half of the year, managing to squeeze into the top four. But they were only making up the numbers. Club legend Robert Harvey will be missed, but Farren Ray from the Bulldogs will inject some much-needed pace to their midfield. The Saints have made the finals four of the last five seasons and they're good enough to squeeze in again, but once again, they'll only be making up the numbers.
(9th) Carlton - Yes, they have Chris Judd. Yes they have Brendan Fevola. Yes, they have a talented group of emerging youngsters. Robbie Warnock is a big boost to their ruck stocks. The Blues will challenge for a place in the finals, but they are still a very young squad and they still have a few deficiencies. I have them just missing out.
(10th) North Melbourne - Finalists the last two seasons, North should be round about the mark again. With Drew Petrie emerging as a star last season and David Hale on the improve, the Kangas look well equipped in the big man department if you add Hamish McIntosh to that list. New captain Brent Harvey is still one of the best players in the competition, but he will need more support in the midfield. The backline may still be a bit brittle, as they gave up a lot of goals last season.
(11th) West Coast Eagles - After an absolute horror 2008 season marred by injuries, suspensions, and a loss of form by a number of key players, I believe the Eagles still have enough talent to turn things around and push for a finals place. Much relies on midfielders like Daniel Kerr, Chad Fletcher and Andrew Embley to remain fit and focussed. There's still a lot of premiership players in this Eagles squad, and they'll be very keen to atone for last year's debacle.
(12th) Sydney - What goes up must come down eventually, and with so many players the other side of thirty having served the Swans so well for so long, this team is simply due for a slide. Furthermore, Tadgh Kenneally has left the club, depriving them of a very important player. The Swans can't play finals forever.
(13th) Adelaide - The Crows have had a major cleanout of senior players in the last two seasons, leaving them now with a pretty young list. Nathan Basset will be missed from their backline, but it's probably their forward line that is the biggest concern, especially with Brett Burton likely to miss the whole season with a knee injury. Trent Henschel will be a welcome addition, but he hasn't played since 2006. As great as Edwards, Goodwin and McLeod have been, they're all another year older now so it'll be up to the next crop of young guns like Vince, Van Berlo, Douglas and Porplyzia to produce.
(14th) Essendon - Essendon has some very quick players on their list, but the question remains who at Essendon can win enough of the hard ball? David Hille emerged as a top ruckman last season and they still have Lucas, Lloyd, Ryder and Fletcher holding down key positions. Andrew Welsh and Scott Gumbleton will miss much of the season due to injury. Essendon's depth will be tested again and they face a pretty tough draw in 2009.
(15th) Fremantle - Well, it's the end of an era for the underachieving Dockers, with a major cleanout of senior players, as well as the loss of young ruckman Robbie Warnock. All this leaves Fremantle with a depleted list and with the Dockers track record, there remains concerns about whether the mental toughness exists. In particular, former captain Peter Bell's loss will be sadly missed. A 100 plus point thrashing in the pre-season by North Melbourne could be the writing on the wall.
(16th) Melbourne - Still a very young list at Melbourne and whilst fans can expect some improvement, coach Dean Bailey isn't a miracle worker. It'll be another long season for the Demons.
1. Geelong
2. Hawthorn
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Collingwood
5. Port Adelaide
6. Richmond
7. Brisbane Lions
8. St. Kilda
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9. Carlton
10. North Melbourne
11. West Coast Eagles
12. Sydney
13. Adelaide
14. Essendon
15. Fremantle
16. Melbourne
(1st) Geelong - Still the powerhouse of the AFL, Geelong still has the best defence and the best midfield in the league, as well as plenty of depth in their playing squad. Steve Johnson and Matthew Stokes are two of the cleverest forwards around and will get plenty of supply from the likes of Ablett, Bartel, Ling etc. However, their big man division is not elite and unless they can find a big forward to kick sixty goals or more, then I believe Geelong is very beatable in the finals.
(2nd) Hawthorn - Quite a few pundits think Hawthorn may have won the 2008 flag a little ahead of schedule. The tactical trendsetters in 2008 also, the question is whether this relatively young squad can remain focussed in 2009. They're the premiers, so they will have a target on their backs like never before, and fifteen other teams will be trying to emulate some of their tactics as well as work out ways to beat their tactics. It'll be a huge test, but with such depth and quality in their squad, I think they're up to it. And unlike their main rivals, Geelong and the Bulldogs, the Hawks have two exceptional big forward targets.
(3rd) Western Bulldogs - Made leaps and bounds in 2008 and I believe they're fully set to challenge for the premiership in 2009. Brownlow Medallist Adam Cooney heads a group of quality midfielders, their defence and ruck division are solid, and they have some very clever forwards capable of kicking plenty of goals. With a good blend of experience combined with some rapidly improving quality youngsters, the Dogs will win plenty of games in 2009 and could be a dark horse in the finals.
(4th) Collingwood - The Magpies still have a very young list, but these youngsters are very, very good. They're highly disciplined and extremely well-coached. There's depth in the playing list also. The defence is solid, the emerging ruck division capable and they have some very clever forwards capable of kicking plenty of goals. Look for full forward John Anthony to have a big year. The big question remains midfield quality and whether the Magpies can win enough of the hard ball to compete with Hawthorn, Geelong and the Dogs. Helped by yet another favourable draw, Collingwood will be up there for sure, but they're not premiership material - yet.
(5th) Port Adelaide - After the season from hell in 2008, I'm tipping the Power to rebound quite strongly in 2009. After making the grand final in 2007, Port underachieved last season, and with players back healthy and a more favourable draw in 2009, Port should return to finals action. Daniel Motlop emerged as a real star last season, and with Tredrea, Ebert, Gray and Justin Westhoff, the Power have a potent forward line. It'll be interesting to see where Chad Cornes is used this season. But when fully fit, he's an elite player.
(6th) Richmond - After a much improved 2008, coach Terry Wallace has the Tigers on track for further improvement this season. Ben Cousins is a welcome addition to an emerging midfield. With a nice blend of experience, youth and certainly speed, the Tigers are good enough to play finals this season, although much may depend on the ability of their young talls Riewoldt, Hughes and Schultz to stand up and kick some goals.
(7th) Brisbane Lions - Rejuvenated by club legend and now new coach Michael Voss, the Lions have the capabiility to turn around a lot of close losses last season and return to finals action in 2009. With two gun tall forwards, a gun ruck division, an experienced midfield, and some quality big-bodied youngsters continuing their improvement, the Lions can make an impact. Exactly how far they go may depend on finding a crumbing forward to complement power forwards Bradshaw and Brown.
(8th) St. Kilda - After disappointing for a fair amount of last season, the Saints excelled in the second half of the year, managing to squeeze into the top four. But they were only making up the numbers. Club legend Robert Harvey will be missed, but Farren Ray from the Bulldogs will inject some much-needed pace to their midfield. The Saints have made the finals four of the last five seasons and they're good enough to squeeze in again, but once again, they'll only be making up the numbers.
(9th) Carlton - Yes, they have Chris Judd. Yes they have Brendan Fevola. Yes, they have a talented group of emerging youngsters. Robbie Warnock is a big boost to their ruck stocks. The Blues will challenge for a place in the finals, but they are still a very young squad and they still have a few deficiencies. I have them just missing out.
(10th) North Melbourne - Finalists the last two seasons, North should be round about the mark again. With Drew Petrie emerging as a star last season and David Hale on the improve, the Kangas look well equipped in the big man department if you add Hamish McIntosh to that list. New captain Brent Harvey is still one of the best players in the competition, but he will need more support in the midfield. The backline may still be a bit brittle, as they gave up a lot of goals last season.
(11th) West Coast Eagles - After an absolute horror 2008 season marred by injuries, suspensions, and a loss of form by a number of key players, I believe the Eagles still have enough talent to turn things around and push for a finals place. Much relies on midfielders like Daniel Kerr, Chad Fletcher and Andrew Embley to remain fit and focussed. There's still a lot of premiership players in this Eagles squad, and they'll be very keen to atone for last year's debacle.
(12th) Sydney - What goes up must come down eventually, and with so many players the other side of thirty having served the Swans so well for so long, this team is simply due for a slide. Furthermore, Tadgh Kenneally has left the club, depriving them of a very important player. The Swans can't play finals forever.
(13th) Adelaide - The Crows have had a major cleanout of senior players in the last two seasons, leaving them now with a pretty young list. Nathan Basset will be missed from their backline, but it's probably their forward line that is the biggest concern, especially with Brett Burton likely to miss the whole season with a knee injury. Trent Henschel will be a welcome addition, but he hasn't played since 2006. As great as Edwards, Goodwin and McLeod have been, they're all another year older now so it'll be up to the next crop of young guns like Vince, Van Berlo, Douglas and Porplyzia to produce.
(14th) Essendon - Essendon has some very quick players on their list, but the question remains who at Essendon can win enough of the hard ball? David Hille emerged as a top ruckman last season and they still have Lucas, Lloyd, Ryder and Fletcher holding down key positions. Andrew Welsh and Scott Gumbleton will miss much of the season due to injury. Essendon's depth will be tested again and they face a pretty tough draw in 2009.
(15th) Fremantle - Well, it's the end of an era for the underachieving Dockers, with a major cleanout of senior players, as well as the loss of young ruckman Robbie Warnock. All this leaves Fremantle with a depleted list and with the Dockers track record, there remains concerns about whether the mental toughness exists. In particular, former captain Peter Bell's loss will be sadly missed. A 100 plus point thrashing in the pre-season by North Melbourne could be the writing on the wall.
(16th) Melbourne - Still a very young list at Melbourne and whilst fans can expect some improvement, coach Dean Bailey isn't a miracle worker. It'll be another long season for the Demons.
