Correct.
2011 Emirates Melbourne Cup......nominations
- Thread starter sethlad
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Correct.
Yeah that is also true, but there are 21 horses having their first crack on Tuesday.
superfreak
Premiership Player
Got this from another forum....
MELBOURNE CUP 10-YEAR-TRENDS
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-1-2
4yo: 3-11-71
5yo: 5-7-68
6yo: 1-6-49
7yo: 1-2-27
8yo+: 0-3-11
No huge bias on aged but horses aged 4 or 5 have won 8 of the last 10 and the two exceptions were both Makybe Diva winning it as a 6yo and 7yo.
Weights (in kilos)
Horses carrying 57.0 or more: 1-3-11
Horses carrying 54 to 56.5: 4-11-63
Horses carrying 51 to 53.5: 5-11-116
Horses carrying 50.5 or less: 0-5-38
If we just focus on more recent times, in the last 6 years:
Horses carrying 53.0 or more: 5-11-69
Horses carrying 52.5 or less: 1-7-66
Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners won a group race last time (5 others beaten in group 1)
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 17 days
7 of 10 winners had run 4 to 6 times since 1st August (3 exceptions were trained outside of Aus&NZ)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2400m (1M 4F) or further
10 of 10 winners had run in 13 or fewer handicaps
10 of 10 winners had run in a group 1
6 of 10 winners had won a group 1
8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a group 1 (other 2 finished 6th & 7th)
10 of 10 winners had won a group race
5 of 10 winners had won at the track (4 of 5 exceptions were having first course start)
10 of 10 winners had won a race with 14 or more runners
Races
5 of 10 winners ran in the Caufield Cup, finishing 14230
4 of 10 winners ran in the Turnbull Stakes, finishing 4710
3 of 10 winners ran in the Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes, finishing 224
3 of 10 winners ran in the Memsie Stakes, finishing 410
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cox Plate, finishing 19
2 of 10 winners ran in Geelong Cup, finishing 11
Barriers
Horses drawn barriers 1-7: 2-13-70
Horses drawn barriers 8-14: 7-10-70
Horses drawn barriers 15 or higher: 1-7-88 (Shocking did amazingly well to win from stall 21 in 2009 as there has been a large big draw bias towards being drawn in the centre)
In the past 8 years 14 of the 16 horses to finish 1st or 2nd have been drawn between stalls 7 and 14.
Price
7 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
However 3 of the last 5 winners have been price 17/1, 16/1 and 40/1, so not a particularly strong trends race pricewise.
Favourites (2-3-11) have won just 2 of the last 10 runnings (both Makybe Diva), giving a level stakes loss of 2.00.
Racing Style
9 of 10 winners were held up in 8th to 16th place at the halfway point
Hold-up horses are favoured but as with all big competitive races you will need luck in running.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 4 or 5
• Carrying between 51 - 56.5 kilos
• Ran in a group race in the last 17 days
• Run 4 to 6 times since 1st August (or trained outside Aus/NZ)
• Won a group race (preferably a group 1)
• Finished in the first 4 in a group 1
• Won over 2400m or further
• Won a race with 14+ runners
• Run in 13 or fewer handicaps
• Course winner (or having first run at Flemington)
• Ran in Caulfield Cup, Turnbull, Memsie or Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes
• Likes to be held up
Only one horse ticks all the boxes. Shamrocker. But she isn't the same horse was saw in the Autumn. Still at $51, I will be having a nibble based on these stats.
MELBOURNE CUP 10-YEAR-TRENDS
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-1-2
4yo: 3-11-71
5yo: 5-7-68
6yo: 1-6-49
7yo: 1-2-27
8yo+: 0-3-11
No huge bias on aged but horses aged 4 or 5 have won 8 of the last 10 and the two exceptions were both Makybe Diva winning it as a 6yo and 7yo.
Weights (in kilos)
Horses carrying 57.0 or more: 1-3-11
Horses carrying 54 to 56.5: 4-11-63
Horses carrying 51 to 53.5: 5-11-116
Horses carrying 50.5 or less: 0-5-38
If we just focus on more recent times, in the last 6 years:
Horses carrying 53.0 or more: 5-11-69
Horses carrying 52.5 or less: 1-7-66
Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners won a group race last time (5 others beaten in group 1)
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 17 days
7 of 10 winners had run 4 to 6 times since 1st August (3 exceptions were trained outside of Aus&NZ)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2400m (1M 4F) or further
10 of 10 winners had run in 13 or fewer handicaps
10 of 10 winners had run in a group 1
6 of 10 winners had won a group 1
8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a group 1 (other 2 finished 6th & 7th)
10 of 10 winners had won a group race
5 of 10 winners had won at the track (4 of 5 exceptions were having first course start)
10 of 10 winners had won a race with 14 or more runners
Races
5 of 10 winners ran in the Caufield Cup, finishing 14230
4 of 10 winners ran in the Turnbull Stakes, finishing 4710
3 of 10 winners ran in the Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes, finishing 224
3 of 10 winners ran in the Memsie Stakes, finishing 410
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cox Plate, finishing 19
2 of 10 winners ran in Geelong Cup, finishing 11
Barriers
Horses drawn barriers 1-7: 2-13-70
Horses drawn barriers 8-14: 7-10-70
Horses drawn barriers 15 or higher: 1-7-88 (Shocking did amazingly well to win from stall 21 in 2009 as there has been a large big draw bias towards being drawn in the centre)
In the past 8 years 14 of the 16 horses to finish 1st or 2nd have been drawn between stalls 7 and 14.
Price
7 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
However 3 of the last 5 winners have been price 17/1, 16/1 and 40/1, so not a particularly strong trends race pricewise.
Favourites (2-3-11) have won just 2 of the last 10 runnings (both Makybe Diva), giving a level stakes loss of 2.00.
Racing Style
9 of 10 winners were held up in 8th to 16th place at the halfway point
Hold-up horses are favoured but as with all big competitive races you will need luck in running.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 4 or 5
• Carrying between 51 - 56.5 kilos
• Ran in a group race in the last 17 days
• Run 4 to 6 times since 1st August (or trained outside Aus/NZ)
• Won a group race (preferably a group 1)
• Finished in the first 4 in a group 1
• Won over 2400m or further
• Won a race with 14+ runners
• Run in 13 or fewer handicaps
• Course winner (or having first run at Flemington)
• Ran in Caulfield Cup, Turnbull, Memsie or Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes
• Likes to be held up
Only one horse ticks all the boxes. Shamrocker. But she isn't the same horse was saw in the Autumn. Still at $51, I will be having a nibble based on these stats.
iluvparis
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My main concern for Niwot is the class.
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I dont understand when people say class? Define class? surely it showed class in its run yesterday?
mattys123
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I give Niwot a chance on two things, weight and time.
The time he ran in the Lexus (2.37.53) was only about a second slower then Americain ran in the MV Cup (2.36.41).
And also weight, 51 kilos will ensure he can be ridden a little more forward then he was in the Lexus, and with Americain, Dunaden etc all likely to be worse then midfield, he may be the first horse to steal a break as they head into the straight.
He's my 3rd horse backed for the cup anyway, behind Dunaden and Illo, happy to ride those 3 home.
The time he ran in the Lexus (2.37.53) was only about a second slower then Americain ran in the MV Cup (2.36.41).
And also weight, 51 kilos will ensure he can be ridden a little more forward then he was in the Lexus, and with Americain, Dunaden etc all likely to be worse then midfield, he may be the first horse to steal a break as they head into the straight.
He's my 3rd horse backed for the cup anyway, behind Dunaden and Illo, happy to ride those 3 home.
Hoffy95
Norm Smith Medallist
It was a 'classy' run/win but it doesn't mean it beat a 'classy' field.
With Tullamore and Moyenne Corniche scratched because they didn't need to run, it's questionable the quality that was left. Green Moon clearly went amiss too.
the good maggot
Team Captain
Seth thanks for all your help on this thread.
Thanks to the wonders of trading on Betfair over the last couple of months I have locked in risk free profits on every horse in the final 24... risk-free collects ranging from $1k-$3k.
I look forward to doing it all again next year!!!
Good luck to all.
Thanks to the wonders of trading on Betfair over the last couple of months I have locked in risk free profits on every horse in the final 24... risk-free collects ranging from $1k-$3k.
I look forward to doing it all again next year!!!
Good luck to all.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
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- 40,654
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- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Class is one of those indescribable form factors that you can't see on paper anyway. You can only no it when you see it and I just don't think he has it and in recent times it seems you need class to win it. He could prove me wrong on Tuesday of course.
Well I'll let you guys in a hot tip; disregard what I say
1. Americain. Based on Tullamore's weight drop of 5kg, his effort in the Kergolay and an outside draw (remembering his 3 wins in Aust have been hugging the rails) I don't think he can win but will definetely be somewhere in the finish.
2. Jukebox Jury. If he repeats his effort from the Kergolay he wins.
3. Dunaden. Can't mix if overseas with the likes of Americain, Red Cadeaux and Jukebox Jury. Can't win.
4. Drunken Sailor. He did beat Jukebox Jury but I think JJ was using that as warm up race given performances after that. On the Caulfield Cup run there are others ahead of him. Can't win
5. Glass Harmonium. From the carpark? No thanks.
6. Manighar. Not up to Jukebox Jury.
7. Unusual Suspect. If he can settle closer than what he did in the Caufield he is big show and the barrier will help him in that quest. Definite chance.
8. Fox Hunt. Was running in second tier races at home; not up to this and can't win.
9. Lucas Cranach. Flemington will suit this bloke and will improve from the Caulfield Cup. A big shot and if it rains he will be loving it. Mamool and the 3200m is the question though.
10. Mourayan. A good honest horse, wouldn't surprise me if he got up. He beat Niwot in the Bart Cummings and drawing a comparison with that form he is a good top 5 chance.
11. Precedence. Could hardly be more out of form. Next.
12. Red Cadeaux. Eats Jukebox Jury dust.
13. Hawk Island. No thanks.
14. Illo. Tullamore and Americain both have his measure. Drawn to get choked early. Can't win.
15. Lost in the Moment. Not up to the good ones back home seachange won't help. Next.
16. Modun. Same as Lost in the Moment.
17. At First Sight. Don't think this guy will get the distance.
18. Moyenne Corniche. Beaten in the Herbert Power. Can't win.
19. Saptapadi. Not even connections think he can win (I just made that up but its probably true).
20. Shamrocker. As for Saptapadi.
21. The Verminator. Not up to this.
22. Tullamore. Slowly got fit. Scratched from Mackinnon as he is at full fitness. The best placed finisher from the Caulfield Cup that lines up here. Drops 5kg on Americain. A great chance.
23. Niwot. He drifted from $6.50 to $9 on Saturday. There was a reason for that; because he isn't good enough to win a Melb Cup. Not up to the Caulfield Cup form and not up to Mourayan.
24. Older Than Time. Why isnt this excluded and Bauer not in the field?
1. Jukebox Jury
2. Lucas Cranach
3. Tullamore
4. Unusual Suspect
Best of the rest Mourayan and Americain.
1. Americain. Based on Tullamore's weight drop of 5kg, his effort in the Kergolay and an outside draw (remembering his 3 wins in Aust have been hugging the rails) I don't think he can win but will definetely be somewhere in the finish.
2. Jukebox Jury. If he repeats his effort from the Kergolay he wins.
3. Dunaden. Can't mix if overseas with the likes of Americain, Red Cadeaux and Jukebox Jury. Can't win.
4. Drunken Sailor. He did beat Jukebox Jury but I think JJ was using that as warm up race given performances after that. On the Caulfield Cup run there are others ahead of him. Can't win
5. Glass Harmonium. From the carpark? No thanks.
6. Manighar. Not up to Jukebox Jury.
7. Unusual Suspect. If he can settle closer than what he did in the Caufield he is big show and the barrier will help him in that quest. Definite chance.
8. Fox Hunt. Was running in second tier races at home; not up to this and can't win.
9. Lucas Cranach. Flemington will suit this bloke and will improve from the Caulfield Cup. A big shot and if it rains he will be loving it. Mamool and the 3200m is the question though.
10. Mourayan. A good honest horse, wouldn't surprise me if he got up. He beat Niwot in the Bart Cummings and drawing a comparison with that form he is a good top 5 chance.
11. Precedence. Could hardly be more out of form. Next.
12. Red Cadeaux. Eats Jukebox Jury dust.
13. Hawk Island. No thanks.
14. Illo. Tullamore and Americain both have his measure. Drawn to get choked early. Can't win.
15. Lost in the Moment. Not up to the good ones back home seachange won't help. Next.
16. Modun. Same as Lost in the Moment.
17. At First Sight. Don't think this guy will get the distance.
18. Moyenne Corniche. Beaten in the Herbert Power. Can't win.
19. Saptapadi. Not even connections think he can win (I just made that up but its probably true).
20. Shamrocker. As for Saptapadi.
21. The Verminator. Not up to this.
22. Tullamore. Slowly got fit. Scratched from Mackinnon as he is at full fitness. The best placed finisher from the Caulfield Cup that lines up here. Drops 5kg on Americain. A great chance.
23. Niwot. He drifted from $6.50 to $9 on Saturday. There was a reason for that; because he isn't good enough to win a Melb Cup. Not up to the Caulfield Cup form and not up to Mourayan.
24. Older Than Time. Why isnt this excluded and Bauer not in the field?
1. Jukebox Jury
2. Lucas Cranach
3. Tullamore
4. Unusual Suspect
Best of the rest Mourayan and Americain.
Well I'll let you guys in a hot tip; disregard what I say
1. Americain. Based on Tullamore's weight drop of 5kg, his effort in the Kergolay and an outside draw (remembering his 3 wins in Aust have been hugging the rails) I don't think he can win but will definetely be somewhere in the finish.
2. Jukebox Jury. If he repeats his effort from the Kergolay he wins.
3. Dunaden. Can't mix if overseas with the likes of Americain, Red Cadeaux and Jukebox Jury. Can't win.
4. Drunken Sailor. He did beat Jukebox Jury but I think JJ was using that as warm up race given performances after that. On the Caulfield Cup run there are others ahead of him. Can't win
5. Glass Harmonium. From the carpark? No thanks.
6. Manighar. Not up to Jukebox Jury.
7. Unusual Suspect. If he can settle closer than what he did in the Caufield he is big show and the barrier will help him in that quest. Definite chance.
8. Fox Hunt. Was running in second tier races at home; not up to this and can't win.
9. Lucas Cranach. Flemington will suit this bloke and will improve from the Caulfield Cup. A big shot and if it rains he will be loving it. Mamool and the 3200m is the question though.
10. Mourayan. A good honest horse, wouldn't surprise me if he got up. He beat Niwot in the Bart Cummings and drawing a comparison with that form he is a good top 5 chance.
11. Precedence. Could hardly be more out of form. Next.
12. Red Cadeaux. Eats Jukebox Jury dust.
13. Hawk Island. No thanks.
14. Illo. Tullamore and Americain both have his measure. Drawn to get choked early. Can't win.
15. Lost in the Moment. Not up to the good ones back home seachange won't help. Next.
16. Modun. Same as Lost in the Moment.
17. At First Sight. Don't think this guy will get the distance.
18. Moyenne Corniche. Beaten in the Herbert Power. Can't win.
19. Saptapadi. Not even connections think he can win (I just made that up but its probably true).
20. Shamrocker. As for Saptapadi.
21. The Verminator. Not up to this.
22. Tullamore. Slowly got fit. Scratched from Mackinnon as he is at full fitness. The best placed finisher from the Caulfield Cup that lines up here. Drops 5kg on Americain. A great chance.
23. Niwot. He drifted from $6.50 to $9 on Saturday. There was a reason for that; because he isn't good enough to win a Melb Cup. Not up to the Caulfield Cup form and not up to Mourayan.
24. Older Than Time. Why isnt this excluded and Bauer not in the field?
1. Jukebox Jury
2. Lucas Cranach
3. Tullamore
4. Unusual Suspect
Best of the rest Mourayan and Americain.
After watching a replay of the Irish St Ledger (apart from JJ) the standout of the race for mine was Red Cadeaux and at the current odds of 40/1 he looks value.
I agree that JJ is the one to beat, but I wish it had a run under its belt on our shores.
- Thread starter
- #389
Oh yeah; he is actually in my top 10. He does have the weight drop on JJ as well but I just think he'll get too far back; he takes a bloody long time to get wound up and is too one paced for how Aust staying races (but with JJ the likely leader things could be different this year).
I too would have liked JJ to start here; but taking him on trust could be worth it come Tuesday. A win like Americain or Dunaden could have seen him start favourite.
Someone help me with trying to line up European form.
1) Kergolay is apparently the form race
2) Americain & Dunaden (top 2 favs) run 8th and 9th.
3) Jukebox Jury wins Kergolay
4) Jukebox Jury wins Irish St Ledger
5) Red Cadeaux finishes 1L behind Jukebox Jury.
6) Red Cadeaux gets 3.5kgs off Jukebox Jury.
On that (very) brief/simple research, I'm wondering why Red Cadeaux is such big odds compared to Jukebox Jury? Is it because it was a weak race with only 6 horses?
1) Kergolay is apparently the form race
2) Americain & Dunaden (top 2 favs) run 8th and 9th.
3) Jukebox Jury wins Kergolay
4) Jukebox Jury wins Irish St Ledger
5) Red Cadeaux finishes 1L behind Jukebox Jury.
6) Red Cadeaux gets 3.5kgs off Jukebox Jury.
On that (very) brief/simple research, I'm wondering why Red Cadeaux is such big odds compared to Jukebox Jury? Is it because it was a weak race with only 6 horses?
Hoffy95
Norm Smith Medallist
I think so. Kind of like Septimus when it was beating up small fields. For mine I'd rather something run a strong 4th for example in a distance race with a big field. I don't like these small field races as being a good prep. or good guide for an intense race like the Cup.
Not to mention is it really a big deal that Americain & Dunaden finished where they did in the Kergolay? All that I need to see is form at the right time and these two are cherry ripe.
This Jukebox Jury will need to be pretty bloody good to win.
- Thread starter
- #393
Ok,what people seem to be forgetting (or maybe they didnt know) about the Kergolay is that Americain virtually fell at the start & Dunaden raced 3/4 wide the trip. They absolutely walked & JJ had a picnic & sprinted home too quickly.
As for Red Cadeaux,he needs a wet track & he is very one paced.
I cant have him as a winning chance because he doesnt get 2 miles for me.
On their efforts in the Goodwwood Cup (2miles) he couldnt beat LITM or Fox Hunt IMO.
Of course they all have to find their form,some do/some dont.
seth
As for Red Cadeaux,he needs a wet track & he is very one paced.
I cant have him as a winning chance because he doesnt get 2 miles for me.
On their efforts in the Goodwwood Cup (2miles) he couldnt beat LITM or Fox Hunt IMO.
Of course they all have to find their form,some do/some dont.
seth
All fair points, especially the bit about the small field / one paced. Puts what I thought were positives in to perspective
inwhiterooms
Team Captain
who do you like Seth?
- Thread starter
- #396
- Nov 25, 2003
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Can't have LITM - purely for the fact a Danehill Dancer cannot win the Melbourne Cup. Just like an Exceed & Excel can't win the Cox Plate.
Good to see your still the Guru Seth, I hope you are well.
Cant have americain with the 58 on his back
Yep...
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