2011 Potential Draftee and Trade Watch

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Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Just read a good article on Patton in my local paper today. Gosh I wish we had a higher first round pick. I think there's some really good talls this year, but if all of Patton, Elton, Longer et al end up at GWS when we need some more talls, it will be quite depressing.
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Ammo Man said:
I appreciate the AFL introduced compensation picks for any club that loses a player and these are tradeable

However, I thought the tenor of your question was whether our club would initiate discussions by offering a player or players in exchange for one the GWS 8 priority draft picks and which player/players we would be prepared to give up to acquire one or more those picks.

My understanding is that the GC did not trade any of those picks and from the comments of Gubby Allen GWS intend following the template of the GC and that everyone of those early 8 picks is off limits. The same applies to their 8 rookie picks.

I must confess I've only taken a passing interest in the draft concessions given to the GC and GWS.
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You are confusing the 12 year old selections, if I am understanding you right, with the right to access to these 4 17 year olds. First of all they are slightly different because with the former GC/GWS could sign any player (if he was willing) aged 17, but these selections are specifically for players born Jan-April 1994 only.

You are thinking GC didn't trade the rights, when they never had the rights to trade. In any case, you are right, GWS won't trade their first round picks, in fact the whole mechanism with these 4 17 yo's I think is the AFL recognising they will find it harder to attract players, and they want them to get lots of senior players, but they don't want them to be forced to trade away the 1st rounders, so this way they can entice the clubs to give good players without giving up said picks. When you think that guys of the calibre of King, Lloyd etc came via this sort of mechanism, clubs will pay plenty for these kids.

Just to clarify, GC were able to sign 12 17 year olds (included Toy, Matera etc). GWS are also able to sign 12 17 year olds, and as far as I know they have signed all of them (Shiels, Bugg, Cameron etc). Neither of these clubs were allowed to trade these players. Either you sign them or you don't sign 12 (only if you're stupid) but you can't trade them. What GWS have been given, which GC never were given, is the ability to trade 4 17 yo's (again, the player has to agree to this) Jan-Apr 1994. By contrast to the '12', these players MUST be traded, it is a use it or lose it provision.

Slightly confusing I know, but hopefully that clarifies it.



The Pivotonian said:
Shame we didn't nab him when we had the chance. ;)
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Pivo is back! Please come back more often and give us your quality U-18 insights this year :thumbsu: You must be very happy with how Mitch is going :)

Turbocat said:
Question for us to ponder ;

GWS have access to four additional 17-year-old selections.These players, born from January-April 1994, must all be traded during either the 2011 or 2012 trading periods.

Given the masterful foresight and the depth of knowledge that drafting staff have these days , these picks have the potential , no maybe even more than that , a high probability that they will deliver to the sides that acquire them a kid worthy of being a top 4 pick.

We all know that early doesn't equate to a guaranteed champion , and we know its not the only way to gather a champion but looking at the quality that usually is gathered from picks this early , we would be silly , imo , not explore getting one of these picks

So the question - What are we willing to give up to get one of these picks? and another , What will it take to get a deal done?
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My understanding is that most of these kids, if eligible for the draft this year would go top 10, they'd certainly all go in the first round. Therefore you'd have to give at the minimum, a first round pick plus a player in your best 22 who has a few years of good service left. Since as jester said, it's to force them to trade for mature players, they'll want the best ones they can get.

I can easily see us offering a first rounder, plus a Stokes/Byrnes/JHunt type, but I doubt they would accept that.

One issue we have is that these kids are prized, they're not going to want to give up the rights for guys who won't play many more years, and we don't really have many guys who are aged 24-27 that are in our best 22, that we would be willing to give up. No way would we be willing to give up guys like Kelly, and rightly so. The clubs that will get the deals done will be the ones who have higher quality players who they can afford to get rid of who are in that age bracket, for that reason I don't really see us being involved.
 

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Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Ammo Man said:
PO,

My understanding is that GWS has picks 2,3,5,7,11,13 and 15 in round 1 of the next NAB Draft.

It was those priority picks I was suggesting were non negotiable.

That's just information gleaned from a passing interest and I may well be wide of the mark.
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Yeah they have those picks.

They're not non negotiable in the sense they could trade them if they wished, but the AFL would certainly prefer they didn't, which is a large part of the reason why they've been given the 4 17yo's.
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Pure_Ownage said:
Yeah they have those picks.

They're not non negotiable in the sense they could trade them if they wished, but the AFL would certainly prefer they didn't, which is a large part of the reason why they've been given the 4 17yo's.
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Yep! I meant not negotiable in the terms of my initial post in this thread in that Gubby Allen has said they were off limits in the same way GC took their prime picks off the table too.
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Thanks PO. He has clarified the picks I was talking about.
There was 3 groups of picks for GWS.
The first group , the 12 u17's ( as PO said)
The second group , the 9 picks from top 15 in the 2011 National draft.
The third group 4 u17 picks that must be traded.

This third group that GWS have and GC did not are picks that MUST be traded that can be used to select kids born from Jan to April 1994 . Say again, MUST be traded or they lose them. So deals will be done

The second group , just like GC's , the top 9 in the first 15 can be traded but it will take an exceptional deal for it to happen. GC traded their Pick 5 for Pick10 but it was part of the Brennan deal. We got Smedts with the GC picks 15 but we gave them a future Pick11 to get it. Lets say Martin at Richmond has an almighty blow up with the coach for eg. , he say I want out , GWS would offer some of those picks but they won't use them to get a Scully because he is out of contract. Maybe some upgrade downgrade trades but they will probably keep at least 8

The players GWS will not be fossils . I agree with your assessment PO on having around 5 years min left in the player , I also don't think they will look at borderline players

This excludes the like of West or Josh Hunt. It would be interesting if they even looked at a high quality older guy. I wouldn't trade him but just for a name would an Enright type interest them. I'd say he may even be to old. So along with these guys who are best 22 players they will probably want an R1 pick.

We really don't have a lot in that group. So if they don't fancy Stokes or Byrnes or Mackie etc , the only way to get one of the u17 picks would be to use our other Ablett pick in conjunction with our R1 from 2012. It might seem a lot but other clubs will bid heavily as well.
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

year of the cat said:
I assume the 4 U17's that have to be traded are picked before the other 12 U17's that they keep?

On another note watching the Eagles tonight can't help but thinking that Darling would have been a great pickup....
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the 12 U17's that they keep? - already picked an on their list. Done post the 2010 draft Tim Golds, Sam Darley, Dylan Shiel, Tomas Bugg and Adam Treloar etc.

U17's that have to be traded - to be traded in either 2011 or 2012. So they may even decided to not trade them this year , so they can trade to get very early R1 picks next year , say 4 pick in the top 10. To convince them to trade them this year the teams will have to offer something good.
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Turbocat said:
the 12 U17's that they keep? - already picked an on their list. Done post the 2010 draft Tim Golds, Sam Darley, Dylan Shiel, Tomas Bugg and Adam Treloar etc.

U17's that have to be traded - to be traded in either 2011 or 2012. So they may even decided to not trade them this year , so they can trade to get very early R1 picks next year , say 4 pick in the top 10. To convince them to trade them this year the teams will have to offer something good.
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Sorry have just re-read the thread and it's clarified it for me. Cheers.:)
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Turbocat said:
Thanks PO. He has clarified the picks I was talking about.
There was 3 groups of picks for GWS.
The first group , the 12 u17's ( as PO said)
The second group , the 9 picks from top 15 in the 2011 National draft.
The third group 4 u17 picks that must be traded.

This third group that GWS have and GC did not are picks that MUST be traded that can be used to select kids born from Jan to April 1994 . Say again, MUST be traded or they lose them. So deals will be done

The second group , just like GC's , the top 9 in the first 15 can be traded but it will take an exceptional deal for it to happen. GC traded their Pick 5 for Pick10 but it was part of the Brennan deal. We got Smedts with the GC picks 15 but we gave them a future Pick11 to get it. Lets say Martin at Richmond has an almighty blow up with the coach for eg. , he say I want out , GWS would offer some of those picks but they won't use them to get a Scully because he is out of contract. Maybe some upgrade downgrade trades but they will probably keep at least 8

The players GWS will not be fossils . I agree with your assessment PO on having around 5 years min left in the player , I also don't think they will look at borderline players

This excludes the like of West or Josh Hunt. It would be interesting if they even looked at a high quality older guy. I wouldn't trade him but just for a name would an Enright type interest them. I'd say he may even be to old. So along with these guys who are best 22 players they will probably want an R1 pick.

We really don't have a lot in that group. So if they don't fancy Stokes or Byrnes or Mackie etc , the only way to get one of the u17 picks would be to use our other Ablett pick in conjunction with our R1 from 2012. It might seem a lot but other clubs will bid heavily as well.
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Gotcha Turbo. Should have picked that up in your earlier post.

It will be interesting to see whether there's much quality in those "must trade" four after GWS have picked the eyes out of the draft with all their other gifted draft picks which they have said are untouchable.

It appears to me that if GWS saw some value in holding off on trading those 4 picks until 2012 they can. Am I reading that correctly?
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Ammo Man said:
It appears to me that if GWS saw some value in holding off on trading those 4 picks until 2012 they can. Am I reading that correctly?
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The way I understand it , they can hold off but must trade them by the end of 2012 trade period , which is before the 2012 draft. The kids they have taken early basically would qualify for this years draft ie. born 93. The special 4 are from Jan to April 94 , ie 2012 draft. (which is supposed to be quite deep and a good standard)

So in theory you are gaining access to a selection before draft irrelevant of finishing position. It would be like at 2001 draft and teams have rights to 4 players before the draft and remove Hodge , Ball , Judd and Bartel before the draft even starts.
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

year of the cat said:
I assume the 4 U17's that have to be traded are picked before the other 12 U17's that they keep?

On another note watching the Eagles tonight can't help but thinking that Darling would have been a great pickup....
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Darling will be a player but we all know he has off field issues and that's why we steered clear of him. Given the character and work ethic of our young kids, I'm glad we didn't take the risk.

Ammo Man said:
Gotcha Turbo. Should have picked that up in your earlier post.

It will be interesting to see whether there's much quality in those "must trade" four after GWS have picked the eyes out of the draft with all their other gifted draft picks which they have said are untouchable.

It appears to me that if GWS saw some value in holding off on trading those 4 picks until 2012 they can. Am I reading that correctly?
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As far as I understand the 4 X 17 yo 'must trades' are not eligible for this year's draft anyway (due to age) so it's the 2012 pool that is diluted, not this year's. There'll still be quality kids like OMeara, Yarran etc for the must trades because they can't go this year but will go top 10 next year if they're not traded.
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Turbocat said:
Thanks PO. He has clarified the picks I was talking about.
There was 3 groups of picks for GWS.
The first group , the 12 u17's ( as PO said)
The second group , the 9 picks from top 15 in the 2011 National draft.
The third group 4 u17 picks that must be traded.

This third group that GWS have and GC did not are picks that MUST be traded that can be used to select kids born from Jan to April 1994 . Say again, MUST be traded or they lose them. So deals will be done

The second group , just like GC's , the top 9 in the first 15 can be traded but it will take an exceptional deal for it to happen. GC traded their Pick 5 for Pick10 but it was part of the Brennan deal. We got Smedts with the GC picks 15 but we gave them a future Pick11 to get it. Lets say Martin at Richmond has an almighty blow up with the coach for eg. , he say I want out , GWS would offer some of those picks but they won't use them to get a Scully because he is out of contract. Maybe some upgrade downgrade trades but they will probably keep at least 8

The players GWS will not be fossils . I agree with your assessment PO on having around 5 years min left in the player , I also don't think they will look at borderline players

This excludes the like of West or Josh Hunt. It would be interesting if they even looked at a high quality older guy. I wouldn't trade him but just for a name would an Enright type interest them. I'd say he may even be to old. So along with these guys who are best 22 players they will probably want an R1 pick.

We really don't have a lot in that group. So if they don't fancy Stokes or Byrnes or Mackie etc , the only way to get one of the u17 picks would be to use our other Ablett pick in conjunction with our R1 from 2012. It might seem a lot but other clubs will bid heavily as well.
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I would agree with that. I reckon they'll want guys aged 24-27 who'll give them about 5 solid years while their kids develop (keep in mind they can't afford to be uncompetitive early in that market). They'll want clubs best players but they'll be realistic about what they'll get, they'll take good quality players in each club's middle tier (let's say outside your top 6, but not below your best 16). The problem is the quality ones we have we either rightly won't trade (e.g. Kelly) and the others are too old (e.g. Boris). If you think about this criteria of what GWS will want Josh Hunt is too old and too fringe, and Byrnes/Stokes are too fringe. The only one they might find acceptable is Mackie, but he'd have to seriously find his form of years gone by for them to be interested.

The other thing I don't know is whether clubs can trade picks and players for the selections, or whether they can only trade players. If it's the former I can see us offering our first rounder plus a decent player, and we might even offer a decent player plus the compo pick if we're guaranteed to get an absolute solid gold top 5 pick quality player (keeping in mind the kids have to agree to be signed by GWS and have to agree to be signed by the on trade club). But if we can't trade picks I can't see how we can get a deal done. Other clubs who have more good players in the middle agre bracket that they are prepared to get rid of will find it easier to do these deals.
 

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Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Pure_Ownage said:
As far as I understand the 4 X 17 yo 'must trades' are not eligible for this year's draft anyway (due to age) so it's the 2012 pool that is diluted, not this year's. There'll still be quality kids like OMeara, Yarran etc for the must trades because they can't go this year but will go top 10 next year if they're not traded.
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Thats how I understand it too , those 4 are taken out of the 2012 draft but this would still be less affected than 2010 and 2011 with the 12 taken early for GC and GWS and if a 2012 is a super draft like 2001 or 2006 I doubt 4 players will the top quality that much.

If the GWS hold off on trading them this year , I believe the kids are then taken from the Jan to April 95 group , and I don't know how good or bad that group is expected to be
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Sam GORDON 43 Geelong Falcons 31-Mar-93 197 87 Camperdown/ Geelong Grammar

http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2011/04/19/254191_local_sports.html

http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2010/01/13/137621_geelong_sports.html

I have not seen this kid but everything I read about him makes me think he should be of interest to us.

He is 197 and is probably going to be close to 200 by the time he finishes growing. He is the Falcons leading goal kicker with 10 in 3 games. He will probably start with the APS soon so I may not get to see him , hopefully plays in the Champs. Turner has apparently compared him to Johno Brown , we all know what Turner is like but at the min , we should keep his name on our list.
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Guys , watching the Gold Coast game last night , it made me wonder ...

Who will be the first kid another team snatches back from them?

Last night , Tom Lynch came in and looked another potential CHF. Liam Patrick comes in and looks another Jarrah , Day looks like he could fly to the moon , where does it going stop. They have so much talent and even if they win a few games , I doubt all of them will or can be kept happy?

Will Bennell want to go back to WA or will Swallow be tempted to join his brother? Maybe but I think its more likely to be a guy not getting a game.

I hope our reps are having a quite word to the likes of Caddy who is not getting game. Player get more home sick playing 2's. Very smart player that would be at home in our next group.
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

I have heard the first player who is likely to come home is Caddy (who playing anywhere, he's injured).

KPP wise would be nice to lure Lynch back, very talented.

Pity all of GC's most talented kids seem to be forwards because we could really use a quality key back.
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

A lot of water to go under the bridge before these young guys are out of contract, and even though GC's salary cap and list size will be contracting annually they've got plenty of chaff in the form of VFL holdovers, older poached players like Fraser and their Qld zone selections.

In other news: Champs fixture released. July 1st, lock it in.
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Pure_Ownage said:
I have heard the first player who is likely to come home is Caddy (who playing anywhere, he's injured).

KPP wise would be nice to lure Lynch back, very talented.

Pity all of GC's most talented kids seem to be forwards because we could really use a quality key back.
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Geelong love those tall mid guys that can almost play a KP. Bartel seems to be there model , a super strong overhead that enables him to play in other positions.I could even see him moving back when other are ready for the midfield role. Smedts seems to be like this and Caddy would also fit.

Pure , I was having a read on the D&T board , the 4*u17 thread where you where debating the kid Stringer. If he is a mid then he would also fit this mould. At 191 he has Joel Corey height yet if talented enough he could play elsewhere. I think Darling is only 191 for instance.

Trading that Ablett pick for a kid whether its Stringer or anyone else must be tenuous right now. How much is it really worth? Who would trade for it when we look like being up the top for a while yet? Perhaps teams like GC & GWS who have time to wait till our core oldies go and will want to stagger their list a bit.
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Pretty bored after Fri Night game. So I thought Id come back on here and bump it again.

There was a thread on our main board about Walker from the Crows , a "IF - would we" ... sort of thing .

For me , in a GWS type market I wouldn't go near him for the dollars that he probably will be offered. The big tempt would be the talent that he has shown in an area we seem to have a weakness in.

In fact if you look at our forwardline right now , one would have to say its so unlike the rest of our setup. In almost every position we have players consider in League best. Even Lonergan is now gettting cudos as an elite backman , something most us never thought would happen.
But our forwardline is nowhere near it. In fact if it wasn't for the most fortunate listing of Podisaidly we would now be in dire straights.

Yes we have Brown and perhaps Vardy in the pipeline. But to expect anything other than cameo type performances from either would be optimistic. Thats fine if we are in rebuild mode but if the very talented mids we have put together keep coming on as Menzel,Duncan and now Bundy have we will not be dropping off any time soon.

So is there another Pods type out there? Perhaps a Mzungu , Barlow type , just waiting for a chance. Admittedly mids are probably more plentiful but I wonder if there is one somewhere just waiting for a chance.
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Brown really is our great white hope. Hopefully with another pre-season under his belt he can become the tall forward target that we are after. As you say it still may be a few seasons before we can realistically expect him to be a force at AFL level.

With Mooney gone at years end and Pods probably with only one further season left we also desperately need Hawkins to step up and be a 2-3 goal a game KPF. Perhaps Vardy can move into his role next year as that mobile ruckman/resting KPF allowing Tom to settle in as a permanent FF or CHF.

That is the ideal scenario. That the Brown/Hawkins/Vardy group come through. You would think though that we need to get a little insurance. Whether that is drafting another tall kid (remembering we also have Walker on the rookie list) or we look to recruit a mature aged tall (*except Fevola) I'm not sure. It's not like they grow on trees. Targeting one of the Suns talls is another option. Surely they won't be able to keep them all. Nevertheless they are kids as well and will take time to come through.

In my opinion a greater need is finding a replacement for Scarlett. I have no confidence that Gillies will be good enough. We need to be drafting a player this year or trading for one soon in order to be ready for his retirement.
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

year of the cat said:
In my opinion a greater need is finding a replacement for Scarlett. I have no confidence that Gillies will be good enough. We need to be drafting a player this year or trading for one soon in order to be ready for his retirement.
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I have not seen the VFL play this year but several reports have Bathie and Mackay looking likely types down back, add that Walker is get a run there and Weston was talked up before he was injured and I would say we have a very good chance of having a tall defender already in our system. Will they be a replacement for Scarlett? No , but who will be? Agree with you on Gillies.

Meanwhile at the other end? We likely kids but very few times can you rely on kids to play a regular performing role in the forwardline. Thats why I was thinking a mature guy around 24-25 , that has been a late bloomer etc.
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Mackay? I think you mean McLean? Looks good but is 28. Although that didn't stop some other guy last year :D

Bathie is showing very good signs but it still very raw.

Weston is not a key defender, I have big wraps on him but I reckon he'll end replacing Milburn if anything.

CS said on tweet the coach that Walker is playing back because they haven't got room for one more tall forward (with having to fit three rucks in the team at times plus Brown and Johnson) but that long term they see him as a forward.

I'm not writing Gillies off yet but we definitely do need to get another key defender, but is there much depth in that area in this year's pool? is the question.

I'm not sure we should specifically go mature age but it's a possibility, I'm a lot of more mature VFL guys will be looked at this year, so maybe we will too for a suitable defender.

The forward line I'm actually comfortable with because Brown and Vardy are real talents.

It's more the defence and ruck that worry me.
 
Re: Potential Draftee & Trade Watch - 2011

Pure_Ownage said:
Mackay? I think you mean McLean? Looks good but is 28. Although that didn't stop some other guy last year :D

Bathie is showing very good signs but it still very raw.

Weston is not a key defender, I have big wraps on him but I reckon he'll end replacing Milburn if anything.

CS said on tweet the coach that Walker is playing back because they haven't got room for one more tall forward (with having to fit three rucks in the team at times plus Brown and Johnson) but that long term they see him as a forward.

I'm not writing Gillies off yet but we definitely do need to get another key defender, but is there much depth in that area in this year's pool? is the question.

I'm not sure we should specifically go mature age but it's a possibility, I'm a lot of more mature VFL guys will be looked at this year, so maybe we will too for a suitable defender.

The forward line I'm actually comfortable with because Brown and Vardy are real talents.

It's more the defence and ruck that worry me.
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Yes , my error. McLean keeps getting good reports but whether he is AFL standard only those internally would know.
Bathie , is a LongShot type recruit. Has there really ever been a topclass player from a non AFL background? Not sure nut he may develop with time into good to very good player.
Weston , again I do agree. When I have seen Weston , he is more a rebounding HB type but I have read reports of him playing as keyback at stages last year.
Walker , back or forward , he has potential. Lonergan has shown how time can shape a player so he is still in a very early stage.

There was concern by several on the board when we got Pods , because they thought he would stifle others development. Yet he has gone past all in that position. Perhaps Im pulling the trigger a bit early but could Brown or Vardy really hold up the role he is doing? I doubt it.
The rucks playing forward in VFL is an issue but I think we will be a couple of Rucks lighter next year.
 

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2011 Potential Draftee and Trade Watch

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