The_Doctor
Club Legend
- Jul 23, 2009
- 2,393
- 104
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
Jarred up last time, with the track expected to be pretty hard i couldnt have him
-
-
AFLW 2024 - Round 6 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
2012 BMW Caulfield Cup
- Thread starter sethlad
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Jarred up last time, with the track expected to be pretty hard i couldnt have him
Sticking to the Moody stable.
Glencadam Gold is a clear top pick, I do not know how you could possibly back anything to beat him. He will slide across and control the race, they will not run him down. A lot of people are just assuming there is going to be a heap of pressure in the race, I concede that there will be more than what he got in the Metropolitan but I do not see much pressure at all. He has been strong through the line in all of his races, it is not as though he has been falling in, I really think they will struggle to get past him. I hope he continues to get out in the market, I have been supremely confident all week and even more so now that Domonic Bernie has him rated a $3.25 chance.
GG has been extremely good but he has a horrible gate and the class of this race jumps up two cogs from where he's been in the past. I know he's a solid horse and has 3 wins on the trot but he will need to go to the next level to win this race. It's anything but a foregone conclusion.
Why will this be another? Every one seems to want to pot him but all I'm hearing are baseless reasons, he has to go up a cog, he wont get it all his own way, people saying this clearly haven't looked at the race, I would back Domonic Bernies analysis over most on Bigfooty.
Please keep backing him then, would love to see him start a 3.50 fave, giving better odds for the others
Please keep backing him then, would love to see him start a 3.50 fave, giving better odds for the others
Please keep backing the others. This is my point, the others, who is the others?
Where do you find his ratings?
Timeform ratings is what he uses doesn't always work out, he has picked overseas horses simply because the form and timeform looked good. He had a good wrap on Aiden O Briens Mahler a couple of years ago. Which finished third.
But when it comes down to it like the rest of us he just working the form whatever way.
He was on RSN this morning, had him as a clear top pick, with his ratings Glencadam Gold only has to run to what he did in the Metrop to win.
If you go onto Betfair you can find his weekend Preview.
Lights of Heaven, My Quest for Peace, Sneak a Peek and Niwot are my top 4. Glencadam Gold has never run in Melbourne, Caulfield is a tight track that horses who have never run the Melbourne way of going will IMO struggle with. Hasn't beaten any oppostion of note as mentioned previously. I find it ludicrous that it is favourite in the race, it's not getting a soft lead in a Caulfield Cup. And it will need that to win it.
The_Doctor
Club Legend
- Jul 23, 2009
- 2,393
- 104
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
a) The barrier. You say he will "slide across and control the race" but i can guarantee you from the 2nd outside barrier he wont just be sliding across. If he wants the lead he will have to be revved up hard and is still far from a sure thing to find it. Another noted front runner in Voila Ici has drawn inside him.
b) The pace. Sydney races are much more sit/sprint than in Melbourne, he wont be able to stack them up and crawl in front even if he finds the lead like he was allowed to do in the metrop. There will be a genuine pace in the race from start to finish
c) Class. Look at the class of the horses he beat in the Metrop, Reuben Percival ran in the placings. Reuben Percival ran 5th in a BM 85 leading into the Metrop and since then has come to Melbourne and ran 9th in the Herbert Power. Horse like he, Stout Hearted and Peal of Bells which is the quality of horses he has been beating are fair - but its not Caulfield Cup favouritism form
I would have him marked at about $9 after the barrier
LOH will have to have improved several lengths off her last start to win this, raced on speed on what was a slower pace than Glencadam Gold went at his last start and still got run over, Lamasery beat her, where did he run against GG? He might not get it as soft a lead as he did last time but he doesn't need to, and there is not as much pressure in the race as every one is trying to make out. He has been running so storngly through the line that he clearly has plenty in reserve.
I do agree that My Quest For Peace is about the best chance to beat him.
Lamasery was withdrawn from the Spring after that race, so I wouldn't say it was 100% fit in the run. Not buying that as a knock on Lights of Heaven.
Doc has summed up my thoughts on GG perfectly above.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,653
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
A few of Gai's last week did not run up to the marks they had recorded in Sydney previoulsy.
Luke Murrell (Australian Bloodstock) on GG before the barrier draw-
He has yet to run time in Australia and has been handed his races on a plate and beat at best Group 3 horses. He has also only raced in very small fields and he goes in the CC way up in class and couldn't win on what he has done so far - He should be 20/1 not Favourite.
He has yet to run time in Australia and has been handed his races on a plate and beat at best Group 3 horses. He has also only raced in very small fields and he goes in the CC way up in class and couldn't win on what he has done so far - He should be 20/1 not Favourite.
BEEG
Hall of Famer
- Aug 2, 2007
- 31,620
- 38,454
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Dallas Mavericks
Surprised no love for December Draw
Last start Flemington it came home well for 3rd on a rock hard track
Look what Commanding Jewell did couple days ago and everybody was of that after its last start at Flemington on the rock hard track i was there that day a lot of the top horses struggled to really fly home
I think Kav has this very well prepaired better then last year and i think December Draw will win tomorrow
I am not complaining i was on Commanding Jewell and will be on December Draw at nice odd's
Last start Flemington it came home well for 3rd on a rock hard track
Look what Commanding Jewell did couple days ago and everybody was of that after its last start at Flemington on the rock hard track i was there that day a lot of the top horses struggled to really fly home
I think Kav has this very well prepaired better then last year and i think December Draw will win tomorrow
I am not complaining i was on Commanding Jewell and will be on December Draw at nice odd's
Look2Me4Guidance
Destination Club Supporter
When the jockey drops off as well as the run, it's hard to ignore.
The_Doctor
Club Legend
- Jul 23, 2009
- 2,393
- 104
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
I dont mind him, but he is just gross unders now for me so couldnt actually back him. His runs have been ok coming in without being anything special. Last start he had the dream run in the Turnbull and only plugged down the straight struggling to get past Voila Ici - the distance is also a query for me
Look2Me4Guidance
Destination Club Supporter
He gets it wrong just like a lot mate. He had Soft Sand a monty a few weeks ago and it didn't get it done. It's all on opinion. Glencadam Gold will be exposed to be real pressure for the first time where it's unknown. I can see it easing in the market. Will have it in my multiples but I'd want far more than $3.25 to get it done.
Visions
Brownlow Medallist
- Oct 2, 2007
- 12,430
- 16,109
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Liverpool FC, HNS Vatreni
Also ask Gai how her front runners did from wide gates last week. Didn't exactly slide across without effort.
It's about 300 metres to the first turn in the Cup. GG in the second from outside gate will have to use a bit of energy to get to the front before then at best. Worst case if it fluffs the start, then you might as well tear up the ticket then and there.
